20 games is also far too little so assess the quality of any team’s winning record

Based on that baseball fans are used to disregard statistics based on 20 games.

However to assess a stadium the issue is less clear. We’re talking about maybe 1200-1400 PA’s – twice that of any normal players normal season. If we had a player that hit 75 homeruns in 2 seasons i doubt anyone here would say the sample size is too small to say that he would be a very good homerun hitter.

The counter argument would be that we’ve only experienced 20 types of weather and that is a fairly small sample size. Same thing with the number of picthers, etc, etc. That is true and a few days with homerun friendly weather can impact the figures but not this much if you ask me.

It is also so that people fail to understand what it means when statistics reject an hypothesis. That would mean that the statistical confidence is not high enought to accept it as proven. The hurdle is normally set at 5% uncertainty. For instance, if it was 94% probable to be true that the new YS was highly HR friendly a statistical analysis would call the theory as “not proven”. In the real world however, 94% probability is pretty darn impressive. Please note 94% is an example and not based on any real calculation.

In its current form the new park is most likely one of the 5-6 most HR friendly parks in baseball and that hurts the team especially if/when we get to post season (attrition of pitchers arms will be much worse for us than for our opponents). Pitching 200 innings in a season will be much tougher for the
Yankees’ pitchers than for the league average. The BP would be taxed much harder. The stadium as is, is probably a major threat to WS win no 27…

As for why there are more “real” long HR’s that can not be explained by dimensions and or weather, that can instead easily be explained by psychology. If a fly ball is much likelier to become a HR, more batters “swing for the fences” and that would in turn lead to more “real” HR’s. Batters are good at playing the percentages, and it is clear that all the players really belive that the new park is more HR friendly.

We really need this dictionary that was mentioned on the chat today. If you are not around for one or two days, you get the feeling these comments are in some obscure foreign language.

And I never said anything about the average flow field and it has little to do with this point.

the power of google

i dont remember how to spell the last name, its like mike kryshcehski lol