2009 Draft: More Mock Drafts
ByThree more last minute mock drafts for ya. First one comes from Keith Law, who again has the Yankees taking high school outfielder Slade Heathcott in the first round. He had the Yanks on Heathcott in his last mock draft as well. The second comes from Jim Callis, who also has the Yanks popping Heathcott. Jonathan Mayo also has the Yanks going with a toolsy outfielder, except he has them picking Cal’s Brett Jackson. KLaw sees three big time arms falling out of the first round (Aaron Crow, Kyle Gibson & Tanner Scheppers), as well as Donovan Tate, but Callis has just Scheppers dropping out. Mayo has them all going in the first.
The current scorecard for mock drafts has five votes for Heathcott, three for Jackson, two for LHP Matt Purke, one for RHP Matt Hobgood, and one for LHP Rex Brothers.
why wouldnt the yanks take Tate if he falls to them, that would be a great pick and since he said he would go mlb if he gets the money he is asking. i say go for it if he falls so far great talent
http://www.amazon.com/Eats-Sho.....1592400876
Mike, what’s your take on Jackson? Would you prefer him or Heathcott (if those were the only 2 choices).
Not a fan of Jackson at all. Trouble making contact, might have to move out of center, too many IFs.
too many IFs.
I don’t wanna hear about no motherf$%#in’ ifs. All I wanna hear from your ass is, “You ain’t got no problem, Jules. I’m on the motherf$%#er. Go back in there, chill them ni$%#s out and wait for the cavalry which should be coming directly.”
IETC.
you are not to receive any more ‘ietc’s’ from me, just assume that I ‘e’ all of your future comments until you hear otherwise.
oh, and if you can, work in ‘Zed’s dead, baby’ somewhere in the draft.
kthxbai
It’ll be interesting if Tate falls along with Crow, Sheppers, and Purke.
Do the yankees take a flier on Tate given the positional needs in the organization? Or is that too much of a risk given issues with signing him with a compensation pick that doesn’t role over?
If the yanks go conservative with that first pick it’ll probably show how concerned they are about losing the original Cole pick and getting nothing back.
Either way it seems like they’ll have a choice amongst some very talented players.
I just can’t imagine them taking Jackson.
from peteabe:
My guess: U. of Florida RHP Billy Bullock or another college pitcher
who the hell is billy bullock?
Hard throwing reliever. Very good arm, but a reliever in the first? Shoot me.
The announcers said he was a starter all year and they switched him to reliever because they had a lot of starters. So he’s projected as a reliever now?
googled it and saw this from Jason Churchill
“# Billy Bullock blew a save for Florida against Southern Mississippi and showed some weaknesses to scouts. He continually threw fastballs, often with very little command. Nevertheless, he still projects as a solid reliever in the big leagues.”
PeteAbe=fail.
He also had 7+ days of rest prior to pitching in that game
Bullock is where PeteAbe pulls his predictions out of.
Sandra’s kid sister?
Mike, thoughts on C Tommy Joseph? I went over to NoMaas to check out their coverage and apparently Joseph mentioned Yanks SD talking to him multiple times and he was the only one that reported so.
He’s good, but a reach at 29. I’d rather just take Luke Bailey and hope he rebounds from TJ. He does everything better.
Steve Henson of Yahoo:
New York Yankees: Reymond Fuentes, Fernando Callego HS, Manati, Puerto Rico
The expectation is that the cash-rich Yankees would snap up Purke or Turner if signability concerns caused them to fall this far. True enough. But with those players off the board, Fuentes, the nephew of Carlos Beltran, is the smart choice. Fuentes has all the tools to become an everyday center fielder in the big leagues.
He has the Yanks picking one spot before the Sox, isn’t that wrong?
Yup, they pick after
yes they are one after.
Maybe he’s anticipating the Red Sox going over the time limit for making a pick?
Minnesota Vikings style, baby!
Jets Blow
You’ll rue the day you crossed me, Trebek.
I wouldn’t mind Heathcott, as long as Gibson/Purke are already taken. But if either one are available you gotta go with that. Scheppers’ shoulder worries me but if they could pop him in a later round, 4th I guess, thatd be great.
Do people think Renfroe will be around for the 76th pick?
I think so; at least its better than a 50/50 shot imo. Renfroe’s guardians are asking for $3 million to sign.
guardians of renfroe.. haha sounds like a sci fi book carl everett doesnt believe in (sorry still getting that one out of my system)
Open the door, get on the floor/
Everybody walk the dinosaur/
Open the door, get on the floor/
Everybody walk the dinosaur/
“(sorry still getting that one out of my system)”
9 years hasn’t been enough time?
Carl Everett doesn’t believe in dinosaurs. You know what he does believe in?
Drunken, unattractive bargirls.
http://farm1.static.flickr.com.....dc13_o.jpg
And, being gay is wrong, but so ostensibly cheating on your wife isn’t.
Be nice… They’re from Kansas City, they’re doing their best.
Question:
If a junior is drafted, can they sign but finish their senior year?
Nah, they used to have a draft and follow system where scenarios like that could play out but now once you’re drafted you become property of the team.
but what if the team okayed it? would it be allowed to happen?
A) I’d be surprised if there wasn’t language in the CBA expressly outlawing that. I don’t think the Yankees can just “okay” it unilaterally.
B) As Mike said below, when a player signs a professional contract to play professional baseball he forfeits his amateur status (in baseball). The NCAA would rule him ineligible immediately. So, the CBA part is moot.
He’s $25million Mr. Strasburgh, good luck at San Deigo State next year
C) No team in their right mind would let a guy they drafted play another season for a college coach.
That too.
Here’s 5M, kid, now go have fun pitching at Rice next spring!
They would only forefit their amateur status if they accepted money to play.
If they signed a MLB contract that had no payment they could still be an amateur.
If they signed a MLB contract that had no payment they could still be an amateur.
I concede your point. If things were different, they wouldn’t be the same.
(rolls eyes)
No I just remember this because I went to CU and Jeremy Bloom retained amateur status for football while competing in professional ski competitions but not accepting money.
Just like Andy Pettitte, you misremembered.
Bloom’s issue wasn’t that he signed a pro contract, because he didn’t. Bloom’s issue was that he accepted endorsement money to fund his skiing career.
NCAA athletes are allowed to sign professional contracts to play one sport and be paid for it and retain their amateur status in another. There’s lots of guys who get paid to play minor league baseball and simultaneously play NCAA football (Kenny Kelly, for example, was a Rays farmhand while the starting QB for the Miami Hurricanes). This is why we put contractual language in Drew Henson’s deal saying he had to give up college football to sign with the Yankees.
Bloom’s case was different. Any of the guys getting drafted this week, when they sign their deals, they only forfeit their amateur baseball eligibility. If they start signing product endorsement deals like Bloom, that’s when they jeopardize their overall amateur status.
The NCAA declared Bloom permanently ineligible to play football after his sophomore season.
The NCAA declared Bloom permanently ineligible to play football after his sophomore season.
Correct. Because he accepted endorsement money. I just want that point to be clear.
The NCAA differentiates between endorsement money and a salaried professional contract.
Oh totally, I wasn’t arguing with you. Just pointing out to J.R. that it’s not like Bloom was some special case and was allowed to play for 4 years. Just pointing out that they did, in fact, shut him down over this stuff.
Why would the player ever do that?
The money would have to be in the future, which would mean he’s signed a contract to pay professionally aka not eligible.
Jeremy Bloom had to give up his skiing sponsorships to play college football, they’re not going to let a baseball player sign any type of baseball contract to then go and play college baseball again.
I’m giving an example of where a player has competed in amateur athletics and also competed against professionals. While a very different circumstances, it shows an example where a college athlete has opted not receive endorsements or compensation to compete professionally.
pat is right but the easier explanation is you cant play in college as a paid professional, supposedly. lol.
Yes, they can go back to school, they just can’t play baseball. Tons of guys go back and finish there last year by taking classes in the fall, I’d say it’s over 75% of drafted college juniors.
I would love to see the Yanks take some of these big name guys like Purke, Tate, Heathcott etc. but it wouldn’t totally suprise me if we went with a couple college guys with these first two picks. For every Gerritt Cole that seems to slip through our fingers there’s a kid like Brett Marshall that nobody has ever heard of but turns out to be a good pick. The first few rounds are all glitz and glamor but the mid to late rounds are when the yanks really should go to work.
Late rounds are where scouting staffs make their money, but that doesn’t mean you go conservative in the early rounds.
I agree with what you’re saying. I just think b/c we need to sign these first 2 picks or forfeit them forever, DOpp and co. might err on the side of caution, select two guys they know they can sign, then be ultra aggressive in the later rounds.
I think that’s a recipe for a horrendous draft. They’ll wind up with a couple of college relievers and several guys who turn them down to go to college.
Haha, I don’t see how that could turn out to be a horrendous draft. It’s basically the same strategy as past years except a little more conservative with the first 2 picks. I think we’re gonna spend the loot, I just don’t think they will take a gamble on a kid who could go all gerritt cole multibillionare boys club and decide to go to school regardless of money.
Fine…but take last year’s draft and add some college relievers to it. Is it really any better?
Another draft like that would not be very good for the organization, frankly.
When I say conservative I’m thinking more along the lines of a college bat. If they take a reliever in the 1st or 2nd round they’re idiots and I agree that would not be very good for the organization.
I think people are blowing this issue of losing the picks way out of proportion. Does it give slightly more leverage to the player? Yes. But from the player’s perspective, the choice is still the same: sign and play for the Yankees or go to college (or an Indy league).
Again, I don’t think money is the issue I just think they might not take a chance on a kid who could flake and go to school without even hearing an offer.
How often does that happen? Cole is one case, but generally all the teams know upfront whether a kid will sign or not, and it’s just a question of making a deal.
I would not like it if the Yankees drafted Brett Jackson.
Look at this guy. Everything about him is an M. The arms, the hat, the team on the shirt. The under-armour logo on the shirt. Even his lips are making an M sound.
He’s got to go to the Mariners. He IS an M. Its pre-ordained.
Those aren’t M’s. They’re inverted W’s.
/proscout’d
So he goes 10th? Strasburg and Crow would be one helluva haul.
That would be pretty money for them, but given they failed to sign Crow last year, I doubt they go back to that well.
I don’t want Crow to go back to the Natinals, simply because I don’t want to hear any stupid announcer types say that the Natinals “had to eat Crow” eleventy bajillion times over the next decade and a half.
How do you make an “inverted W” sound?
natinals
No, they’re upside down inverted M’s.
This draft looks like a big game of chicken, with lots of guys falling to teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, and who they pick will be determined on who is willing to sign quickly. One thing to look for is to see if Boston will draft Turner or Green (If they are there), because of the Boras effect (Remember the trip to meet with Teixeira in Texas, and how angry Sox ownership was. Will bygones be bygones or will there be a lingering effect?). I have little doubt that Green will be the pick if he gets by the Tigers, Sox & Royals (I predict KC to get him).
I am predicting Gibson will be the pick.
Speaking of Green, Mike how feel you? I’d be happy.
I’m pretty sure the Red Sox have forgiven Boras. If they haven’t, will then they are pretty stupid.
I wonder why the Red Sox would be upset. They were told, offer more money or he signs somewhere else. They didn’t offer money and he signed somewhere else. This isn’t like Boras was creating some mystery bidder that didn’t really exist.
Does anyone have the $$ allocations by draft for the Yankees? Like, how much did all of their 2006 picks cost, total?
i found a site that listed the first 10 rounds and according to my math the yanks that year spent approx 7 mil in bonuses. kennedy 2.25, joba 1.1, dellin 1, melancon 600K, z-mac 368K were the biggest.
Kennedy got 2.25 million! Wow.
Being the ace of the USC staff, leading the country in strikeouts, and having your college coaches say you were in the same grouping as the Randy Johnson/Barry Zito/Mark Prior shortlist of “one of the best pitchers ever in the history of this illustrious program” will do that for you.
People seem to forget that Ian Kennedy was one of the more highly regarded college (and prep) pitching prospects in the game.
pitchability does not make someone a 1st rounder.
No, being selected in the first round does.
Quality college arm + first round premium
And then he stopped facing inferior talent.
k.
I love how people are closing the book on a 24 year old kid already.
Was he a probability pick? Yep. Let’s say the Yanks picked Joba and THEN Kennedy. Would you be less cranky? Ok, now realize that they figured Kennedy wouldn’t be there when they picked again.
So, it’s between Joba + Kennedy or Joba + someone worse than Kennedy. You’d prefer the latter?
In the major leagues. He was still sending hitters back to the dugout shaking their heads in AAA.
And now, he’s injured and out for the year.
My guess is that IPK is going to be one of those starters that shows up at 26 and wins 15-18 games out of nowhere for some team like the Pirates, then gets a 4 year deal and becomes a 3rd/4th starter for a few years before disappearing.
So, ~ $7M, and Joba’s been worth over twice that ALREADY in terms of what they’d have paid an FA to do what he’s done.
Exactly my point.
Here’s what i dont get. I understand they are unproven, but basically for most of them say it is 3 million you are getting that for the chance they develop in the next 4 years. If you did that for 4 guys its like one free agent for 1 year. I understand it is a lot of money for unproven talent, but the potential dividend is so high. Just look at what we got out of the 06 draft:
Joba
Kennedy
Z-Mac
Betances
Melancon
Robertson
Konotos putting it together this year
That’s 1 starter in the majors, 1 reliever proving himself in the majors and 3 of the top 10 prospects we have. How many millions does that save us in FA?
This isn’t at you, but a lot of people claim that Kontos has only been putting it together this year.
And yet, he’s been doing it since the year after he was drafted. Few people believed in him until this year.
Isn’t that the point of Ross Ohlendorf’s thesis?
posted this in the last discussion but since this is the one for this year’s draft i will mostly repost it.
I know the Yanks are claiming a budget on the draft this year and it might be real but more than last year or the last couple since i didnt really follow the draft before that it appears the economy is making teams more skeptical of big price figures while the players expect the numbers to keep going up and it appears a lot of early round talent will fall. If this happens the yanks should act like the yanks and snatch up as much talent as they can, pay them and in the end it will cost less because we will have a great system and wont need to fill as many holes in FA.
With the money we didnt spend on the draft last year cause cole went to school and bittle had the shoulder we should be factoring that in to this years “budget.”
I also dont see the Yanks as big players in FA this offseason and they will expect Jackson to be up next year and the only 1 of the 4 FA (Damon, Matsui, Pettitte, and Nady) that i see them bringing back might be damon for like 1-2 years 8 mil or so a year and if that is the case the payroll shrinks by 28 mil next year.
If Tate falls i think we have to pick him because we need a huge upside position player because it is the thing we are missing that and a guy like purke who has huge upside from the left hand side. Either one and a renfroe, heathcote type at 76 would be a phenomenal draft and make up greatly for last year.
Btw, do the Diamondbacks get compensatory picks for all of their 1st and 2nd rounders if they fail to sign? I could see them going after a couple signability guys and waiting them out to the deadline if so.
As long as the picks weren’t compensatory from not signing last year’s guys (like ours are) they would get them back. In other words, they’re in a very very good situation.
BA has a list of names that announced their price tags yesterday. Matzek wants “precedent setting” money = MORE than what Rick Porcello got. Shelby Miller wants $4 million.
Teams in the top 10 had thought till yesterday that both guys would sign around slot. NOT. The. CASE.
Let ‘em fall baby.
Crazy Shit man, I just jacked this from Nomaas-
Keith Law on Twitter: Keith Law: “I readily admit that I have no idea what’s going to happen tonight. This is the most ridiculous draft I’ve ever been a part of or covered.”
——–
Ridiculous= great for yankees.
Woah, wait a minute. Teams don’t decide what players will sign for based on what players say, they look at leverage and precedent. Of course any player wants a bigger bonus. You think guys sign for slot out of the goodness of their heart? They sign for slot because they have no leverage.
I don’t know what this means in Matzek’s or Miller’s case specifically, but if they have leverage, and teams thought they would still sign for slot, those teams are stoopid.
Generally speaking, their leverage is that they can NOT sign and go back to school.
Matzek isn’t that good. He’s batshit insane.
If Shelby Miller falls, he’d jump into second on my board:
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-420095
F me I was thinking of Skaggs, not Matzek. If Matzek wants, that, I’m tempted to say that he’s worth it. Purke isn’t worth Porcello money at all, however.
The current scorecard for mock drafts has five votes for Heathcott, three for Jackson, two for LHP Matt Purke, one for RHP Matt Hobgood, and one for LHP Rex Brothers.
And one for my theory that the Yanks are also going to draft Strasburg and just offer him more money than the Nats.
How I wish that was possible.
Maybe the Steinbrothers should just buy the Nationals. It might be easier.
It’ll be just like the 50’s and 60’s, when we owned the Kansas City A’s.
Is there any rule about drafting a player, signing him to a 40 mil deal and then trading him? If the Yanks offered Hughes and Jackson and took on the contract wouldnt the Nats make that deal?
BTW, the above deal is just an example. I’m not saying i want the Yanks to trade Hughes.
cant be traded for 1 year from the date of his signing.
Thanks
I thought it was 1 year from the draft.
For Strasburg, I might consider it. Depends on what happens during that year.
A while ago RAB asked the question “What would you change about baseball if you were Commissioner for a day? I wrote a heartfelt and sentimental piece about regulating bats because somebody somewhere is likely to be killed by a shard flying into the stands. Well, I would now like to change that answer. If I were Commissioner for a day I would make the MLB draft an auction. That would be a hundred times more entertaining to watch and might favor the yankees slightly which would be an added benefit.
Allowing picks to be traded would be much easier.
If I was commissioner for a day… I’d have Bobby Abreu throw a baseball right at Josh Beckett’s head, as hard as possible.
i’m going back on my previous statement, and reiterating
IETC!!!
Sox appear high on Stassi as he worked out for them this morning
according to Law, sorry
Makes sense they definitely need catching
Yeah but they need catching now not in 5 years. MLB teams rarely, if ever draft for current need as most of these guys are so far from being mlb ready.
yeah, but that’s where stassi should go anyway. well, actually according to law, he’d be a steal there as he has him at #15.
Mike…
Purke at 29, Renfroe at 76?
You answered your own question.
DUCWIDT?
I’m Ron Burgundy?
wow, so clever. i was asking Axisa how that would rate out in terms of needs, potential or if he thought there was a better combination that was realistic.
Sign me up.
I’m very annoyed that the draft is at six and on MLB Network. Not only do I not get MLB Network but I have to umpire at 5:45. If I’m doing the plate, everything that reaches on the fly will be a strike and if I’m on the bases, it’s Wiffle Ball rules: clean fielding is an out.
Anyway, for the first round I’d like: Heathcott, Purke, or Crow, in no specific order.
With your game at 5:45, why bother rushing? Just hit up RAB afterwards.
I can just imagine the SS fields doesn’t even throw and you call it out.
One handed catch = DP.
Matt ACTY/BBD = Bizarro Umpire Frank Drebin
Yeah. i’ll likely be on the train when the yanks make their selection. its gonna be a looooong ride home.
Law’s latest and greatest mock just came out and he still has the Yanks taking Heathcott
It sounds like Heathcott might be the guy.
I want Grant Green.
Move to Detroit or Kansas City.
If Borchering somehow falls to the Yanks, they have to take him, no?
Toolsy HS hitters like Heathcott scare me.
Yup, me too.
*cough*AustinJackson*cough*
*cough*Andy Brown*cough*
Ajax was a 29th rounder because of signability concerns and fortunately he signed with the Yankees instead of playing ball at Georgia Tech. Tyrell Godwin was a toolsy HS outfielder the Yankees drafted in the first round who didn’t sign.
In the second round, in the last ten years, the Yankees drafted two toosly HS OFers: the great Estee Harris and the unforgettable Gary Winrow. Outside of that window, in 1995, they selected Richard Brown.
Their track record with toolsy HS Ofers in the 29th round = good
Their track record with toolsy HS ofers in the late 1st/2nd round = not so hot
edit: Ajax was the 29th pick of the 8th round.
Small Sample Size FTW!
The fact that we struck out on three toolsy outfielders in the past 15 years does not mean that we will always strike out on toolsy outfielders or that toolsy outfielders always become busts. It could just mean we drafted poorly in the past and kept drafting the wrong toolsy outfielders.
Seeing as how numerous other teams have drafted toolsy outfielders in the first and second round during that stated time period and had good success with them, I’d say your fears are largely unfounded. The Yankees drafts from 1996-2003 were a pretty crappy wasteland. The lesson from them is not that we should shy away from toolsy players with upside, it’s quite the opposite; we need to avoid non-toolsy finished products with limited ceilings (and we need to try and pick the wrong players less and the right players more.)
It could just mean we drafted poorly in the past and kept drafting the wrong toolsy outfielders
Which is why drafting toolsy OFers scare me. And as for sample size, HS OFers in the first few rounds by themselves are an awful small subset of the players selected. Pitchers dominate the list.
If Slade was the real deal, he wouldn’t be going in the late first round. He’s a very risky pick. If they take him the 4th? Hooray. Late first round? It’s definitely throwing away a pick if he doesn’t sign (and he’s committed to LSU) and it’s throwing away a pick if he doesn’t pan out like most HS outfielders that slip out of the top 10-15 (he ain’t an Upton or a Hamilton). And there are questions about his ultimate position.
And wow, just looking back, that 1999 draft was awful for the Yankees. Seriously. Whoever made those picks should have just gone out on the field and shot themselves instead.
like matt ACTY/BBD said earlier: I would not like it if the yanks drafted Brett Jackson. please do not disappoint me yankees.
and also as klaw has said: this draft is ridiculous. writers and draft analysts have no freakin’ clue what’s gonna happen beyond picks 1 and 2 and MAYBE one or two others. this is gonna be so exciting to watch.
That’s the great part, none of the mock drafts are going to be close
Here is Jackson not striking out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK_uIJTr8LI
I take him. He is Chipper Jones in the making