http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK_uIJTr8LI

I take him. He is Chipper Jones in the making

Which is why drafting toolsy OFers scare me. And as for sample size, HS OFers in the first few rounds by themselves are an awful small subset of the players selected. Pitchers dominate the list.

If Slade was the real deal, he wouldn’t be going in the late first round. He’s a very risky pick. If they take him the 4th? Hooray. Late first round? It’s definitely throwing away a pick if he doesn’t sign (and he’s committed to LSU) and it’s throwing away a pick if he doesn’t pan out like most HS outfielders that slip out of the top 10-15 (he ain’t an Upton or a Hamilton). And there are questions about his ultimate position.

And wow, just looking back, that 1999 draft was awful for the Yankees. Seriously. Whoever made those picks should have just gone out on the field and shot themselves instead.

The fact that we struck out on three toolsy outfielders in the past 15 years does not mean that we will always strike out on toolsy outfielders or that toolsy outfielders always become busts. It could just mean we drafted poorly in the past and kept drafting the wrong toolsy outfielders.

Seeing as how numerous other teams have drafted toolsy outfielders in the first and second round during that stated time period and had good success with them, I’d say your fears are largely unfounded. The Yankees drafts from 1996-2003 were a pretty crappy wasteland. The lesson from them is not that we should shy away from toolsy players with upside, it’s quite the opposite; we need to avoid non-toolsy finished products with limited ceilings (and we need to try and pick the wrong players less and the right players more.)

Ajax was a 29th rounder because of signability concerns and fortunately he signed with the Yankees instead of playing ball at Georgia Tech. Tyrell Godwin was a toolsy HS outfielder the Yankees drafted in the first round who didn’t sign.

In the second round, in the last ten years, the Yankees drafted two toosly HS OFers: the great Estee Harris and the unforgettable Gary Winrow. Outside of that window, in 1995, they selected Richard Brown.

Their track record with toolsy HS Ofers in the 29th round = good
Their track record with toolsy HS ofers in the late 1st/2nd round = not so hot

IETC!!!