Archive for June, 2009
A tale of two pitchers
Posted by: | CommentsOn April 26, 2007, the Yankees found themselves without a starting pitcher, and so a few months — or possibly a year — ahead of schedule, they handed the ball over to a 20-year-old right-hander named Phil Hughes. A few months later, on August 7, 2007, they again found themselves short a pitcher. This time, the team needed a reliever, and they found one in a young flamethrowing starter nearing his innings limit named Joba Chamberlain.
Over the course of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Joba’s and Phil’s paths diverged. Almost immediately, Joba established himself as someone who could thrive in a high-pressure situation on the big stage. The brash kid from Nebraska emerged as a dominant set-up man, faltering only when a swarm of bugs attacked him. When the Yanks, amidst much criticism, moved him back to his natural spot in the starting rotation, he still thrived. Armed with the confidence he built up in the pen, he has emerged, at 23, as a kid on the way to Major League stardom.
Hughes, on the other hand, saw his fortunes follow a different path. His first start was nothing spectacular, and he couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning against the Blue Jays. Five days later though, he was dealing. Through 6.1 innings, he was no-hitting the Rangers in Texas when his hamstring popped.
For much of the next 18 months, Hughes would deal with the fallout from this injury. He came back by the end of the year but seemed tentative on the mound. He didn’t want to land too hard on his front leg or overstride again. In 2008, given a spot in the starting rotation, he couldn’t hold it. He went 0-4 and landed on the DL for much of the year with a mechanics-induced stress fracture in one of his ribs.
While he was still just 22 when the 2008 season ended, scouts and talent evaluators wondered if Hughes was destined to be a — I shudder to type it — bust. He was 5-7 with a 5.15 ERA in 21 starts spanning 106.1 innings. He wasn’t giving the team depth or getting outs.
When the Yanks called upon Hughes this year, the results looked disappointingly similar to his 2008 effort at first. He got shelled in Baltimore, and Yankee fans were wondering what the hype was about. But Hughes took his bad outing in stride. In four starts after it, before ceding his spot to Chien-Ming Wang, he went 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA in 23 innings. Even better were his 23 strike outs and seven walks over that span. This was the first sign of the Hughes we had expected.
When Wang returned, the Yankees pulled a reverse Joba on Hughes. They knew he could contribute at the Major League level, and they knew they would need someone to step in if or when Wang proved to be ineffective. Phil Hughes in the pen though has been a revelation. He has thrown 12 innings with a 1.50 ERA. He has given up just two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out 15. He has flashed that mid-to-upper 90s fastball we had heard about but never seen before. He was throwing with renewed confidence and ability, and he is not shy about admitting it.
Of course, as New York is the unnecessary debate capital of the world, the voices grew loud. “Let’s keep Phil Hughes in the pen,” they screamed. “He can be the bridge to Mariano.” The Yankees would have none of it. As Bryan Hoch noted in his Monday mailbag, the Yanks have tried to shut down this faux-debate before it grows too loud. “Anybody who is a good starter is going to be a hell of a setup guy, I promise you. Anybody who has a plus fastball and a plus secondary pitch would make a great setup guy or closer, in theory. But it’s not the same,” Brian Cashman said. It’s not the same because starting pitching is far more valuable than relief pitching.
Young pitchers can be certainly be used effectively in the pen. Joba was able to contribute at the big league level while facing an innings cap in 2007. He got to know the competition and Major League life. For Phil, the pen has restored his spot atop the Yankee pitching prospect pecking order. He struggled in the early going, as young 20-somethings are wont to do, but he has learned this year that he can succeed as a starter and let loose as a reliever. As baseball psychology goes, this move has worked wonders so far for a pitcher on whom the Yankees are counting in the near future.
That is what it’s about. The Yanks are no B-Jobbers or B-Hughesers, pushing for a permanent move to the pen. Rather, there is a team with a plan learning how, after years of producing nothing out of the farm, to develop a young pitcher who has mastered the minors but not yet gotten a handle on the majors. While 12 innings is of course a small sample, we are watching Phil Hughes arrive, and it looks good.
RAB Lunch: Noon at Foley’s
Posted by: | CommentsJust a quick reminder for those just getting to work who didn’t catch the word last night: This morning at 11 a.m. the guys behind the Save the Yankee Gate 2 movement are going to appear on Mark Healey’s Baseball Digest Live, a weekly Internet radio show that broadcasts out of Foley’s in Manhattan. Click here for info on the show, and check out my post about the movement. A few RABers are going to meet for lunch at Foley’s at noon. We’ll check out the show and meet the Save the Gate 2 guys. Look for me at noon inside Foley’s by the front of the bar. Foley’s is at 18 W. 33rd St. between 5th and 6th Aves.
On the composition of the bench
Posted by: | CommentsWith Xavier Nady out for the rest of the season, the Yankees’ roster picture has become clearer. Whereas before they were awaiting the return of a player who would add depth, now they know that player is not coming. The Yankees have a number of options moving forward, both for the immediate future and in preparation for the July 31st trade deadline.
Starting in the present, PeteAbe reports that Jose Molina will return in about a week. The Yankees could do one of three things:
- Carry three catchers and option Ramiro Pena to Scranton
- Option Cervelli to Scranton
- DFA Jose Molina
Let’s rule out the third option, since it’s not at all likely. If they release Molina and Posada gets hurt, they’d be stuck with Cervelli and Cash instead of Cervelli and Molina. The latter is preferable. Cervelli isn’t that much better than Molina, anyway — if he’s better at all, which at this point I’m not about to declare.
Carrying three catchers would mean Jorge Posada is the de facto DH. Pete says that Jorge isn’t “going to be the DH because the Yankees aren’t releasing or trading Hideki Matsui.” Yet this scenario would allow them to start one of Cervelli and Molina, use Matsui as a pinch hitter, and then substitute the other, with Posada still available as an emergency. It’s certainly not the most efficient use of roster space. This option is also unlikely, unless the Yankees are more concerned about Jorge’s health than they let on.
This leaves optioning Cervelli to Scranton. By all appearances, this is what will happen. He’ll get regular reps at AAA in preparation of taking over for Molina in 2010. Meanwhile, he serves as an insurance policy in case either Molina or Posada go down again. Yes, it’s nice to have him around, and I can see why everyone is high on him, but let’s not let his personality overshadow his ability. Right now, there’s no harm in having him in AAA.
Pete also brings up another notion: option both Cervelli and Pena, and opt to bring up a better bat off the bench. Once Molina returns, the bench will be him, Cody Ransom, Gardner/Cabrera, and Ramiro Pena. There’s not exactly a bopper in there. True, Pena can serve as a late-inning pinch-runner, especially if Gardner starts. Pete suggests recalling Shelley Duncan or John Rodriguez. I’m not so sure.
Over whom in the starting lineup would Shelley Duncan be an upgrade? In other words, for whom would he pinch-hit? Maybe Gardner or Carbera, but even that’s debatable. The league seemingly figured out Shelley after 32 plate appearances — he started his career .321/.406/.857 in 32 PA and finished the season with a .217/.280/.370 run in 51 PA, plus his .175/.262/.281 in 65 PA last year. In theory it would be nice to have Shelley Duncan on the bench — if Shelley Duncan would actually represent an upgrade. Maybe he can provide a short-term burst of production, but he’s not someone who should be on the roster August 31.
As it stands, the Yankees might just be better off keeping both Cody Ransom and Ramiro Pena on the bench. Pena can play multiple positions and has some wheels. Ransom also plays many positions. They have four outfielders, and Matsui in an emergency situation. Since they don’t have someone on the farm who can provide an upgrade in a pinch-hitting situation, it’s tough to call on such a move. Again, since the team has some flexibility with Pena they could give it a shot, but they shouldn’t expect much from either Shelley or J-Rod.
This leads to the longer-term lookout, i.e., the rest of the season. Could the Yanks pull a trade for an outfield bat? Someone who could, perhaps, provide a platoon partner for Matsui against tough lefties and buy some days or half-days off for the other outfielders? Perhaps. Steve Lombardi wants a more consistent alternative to Nick Swisher. Says he:
Don’t get me wrong. I know that Swisher works counts and gets walks. And, when he’s hot, Swisher can hit the ball out of the park. But, when he’s cold, he’s beyond ice cold. And, at times, Swisher takes some curious routes on fly balls. Basically, when he’s bad, the Swish Hawk is “T-Long Like.”
While I’m an unabashed Swisher fan, I’m not going to stick my fingers in my ears and ignore his shortcomings. He does have some pretty bad cold streaks, and it would be nice to have someone to give him some time off during them. What’s that worth, though? Can the Yankees get the import (because the answer is not in the system currently) at a reasonable enough price? Can they get him enough playing time to justify the price? Those questions will be clearer as the Xs mount in July and we get closer to the 31st.
For right now, the Yanks can afford to stand pat. There is no pressing need to make a roster move. If the Yankees want to give it a whirl with Shelley or J-Rod, they can do so with minimal risk. If they want to keep things how they are and have two multi-position players, one who can run, on the bench, they can do that. It just goes to show that when you have a solid starting nine, a bench becomes far less important.
Jackson homers again, Nova flirts with no-no in AAA debut
Posted by: | CommentsKevin Cash, John Rodriguez and Justin Leone were all placed on the DL with various ailments. Meanwhile, Jim McLennan tells you everything you need to know about labrums, and more.
Lance Pendleton was named Florida State League Pitcher of the Week while Melky Mesa was named the South Atlantic League’s Player of the Week.
Triple-A Scranton
Game 1 (5-0 win over Rochester in 7 innings) make up of an April 20th rain out
Kevin Russo, Austin Jackson, Colin Curtis, Eric Duncan & Chris Stewart: all 1 for 3 – Jackson doubled, scored a run & K’ed … E-Dunc hit a three run bomb & K’ed
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K
Juan Miranda: 1 for 2, 1 R
Ivan Nova: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 7-5 GB/FB – 56 of 90 pitches were strikes (62.2%) … lost the no-hitter with two outs in the sixth on a line drive off the shortstop’s glove … he’s been getting better and better with each start for about two months now
Jon Albaladejo: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 3-0 GB/FB – 16 of 21 pitches were strikes (76.2%)
RAB Lunch: Tuesday at Foley’s
Posted by: | CommentsTomorrow morning at 11 a.m. the guys behind the Save the Yankee Gate 2 movement are going to appear on Mark Healey’s Baseball Digest Live, a weekly Internet radio show that broadcasts out of Foley’s in Manhattan. Click here for info on the show, and check out my post about the movement. A few RABers are going to meet for lunch at Foley’s at noon. We’ll check out the show and meet the Save the Gate 2 guys. Look for me at noon by the front of the bar. Foley’s is at 18 W. 33rd St. between 5th and 6th Aves.
RAB on Minor League Notebook Weekly
Posted by: | CommentsJust a heads up, I’ll be on Minor League Notebook Weekly with Tyler Hissey and Doug Gray tonight at 8:20pm. Tyler and Doug used to run Minor League Notebook, but recently joined forces with First Inning and moved their operation over there. We’re going to talk about the upcoming Futures Game, and of course touch on some Yankees prospects. You can listen live at Blog Talk Radio or at First Inning. Check it out, I’ll be on for 20 minute or so.
Open Thread: Walk-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsAt 29-17, the Yankees boast the best record in baseball since Alex Rodriguez returned to the lineup on May 8th. That has more to do with the pitching than anything else, as A-Rod is currently having his worst statistical season since 1997. The good news is that A-Rod’s .232 batting average is fueled by a ridiculously low .219 BABIP, and his IsoP is .252, right in line with his career mark. His prodigious power is still there, it’s just that fewer balls are dropping in for hits at the moment. That should correct itself in time.
But let’s not worry about batting average and hitting for power right now. Has anyone noticed how much A-Rod’s been walking this year? Even though he’s only played in 46 of 75 games, he’s third on the team with 39 walks (behind Nick Swisher & Mark Teixeira) and already 15th in AL in free passes. He’s walked in 20.1% of his plate appearances this year, far and away the best mark of a career in which he’s walked 11.3% of the time. All those walks allow A-Rod to have a fantastic .399 OBP despite his low batting average.
One of the byproducts of drawing walks and working deep counts is striking out. Nick Swisher and Adam Dunn are extreme examples, but we also see it with Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon. It’s just the way it is. Except that hasn’t been the case for A-Rod this year. He has more walks than strikeouts (28 K), something he’s never done, and frankly has never even been close to doing before. Over the his first five years in pinstripes, Alex struck out in about 22% of his plate appearance, but this year he’s cut it down to 18.1%.
A-Rod’s always been a guy that put a ton of pressure on himself, particularly in big spots, but this year he seems more content to just take what he’s given and pass the baton on to the next guy if the pitcher doesn’t give him something to hit. Maybe it’s just a statistical anomaly. I really have no idea, any theories?
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Anywho, here’s your open thread for tonight. The Mets are in Milwaukee, surely happy to not be facing the Yanks any more. Talk about whatever you like here, just be nice.
Oh, and make sure you vote in this week’s Fan Confidence Poll if you haven’t already.
Mo earns Player of the Week honors for RBI walk
Posted by: | CommentsFresh off of his first-ever career RBI, Mariano Rivera took home Player of the Week honors this week. He will share the award with Jermaine Dye who went 12 for 24 on the week but had just five more RBI than Mo. Rivera is being recognized by MLB for his courageous at-bat against Francisco Rodriguez last night. Just the third regular season plate appearance of Mo’s long and illustrious career, it ended on the seventh pitch as Rivera drew a walk with the bases loaded. A few minutes later, Rivera became just the second pitcher to record 500 career saves.
In other Rivera-related news, Rebecca Glass reports that current Sirius XM host and one-time Red Sox manager knew Mo was special as early as 1996. The Statistician Magician, also a Red Sox fan, salutes Rivera as well. When Mo is eventually inducted into the Hall of Fame, I plan on going to the ceremony. I’ve seen two other induction ceremonies, but his will be truly special.
Rumor of the day: Who watches the Wanger?
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yankees nailed down Chien-Ming Wang‘s first win of 2009, the team breathed a collective sigh of relief. The psychological benefits alone for a pitcher who, two months ago, was 0-3 with a 34.50 ERA in six innings, are immense, and the Yankees need their cost-controlled sinker ball specialist, once among the game’s best pitchers to rediscover his form.
Since returning from the disabled list in late May, Wang has looked better than he did in April. Over eight games, five starts, he has thrown 30.2 innings and is 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA. As we’re used to seeing Wang twirling over six innings a start to the tune of a sub-4.00 ERA, that’s still not quite up to par for the Taiwanese hurler, but instead of looking epically bad, it resembles a rough patch. We generally wouldn’t worry about a rough patch.
When push comes to shove this season, Wang’s final numbers won’t look pretty. His ERA stands at 10.06 through the first three months of the season. If Wang makes his final 17 starts and averages six innings per start, he will have to pitch to an ERA of 2.38 just to get his season mark to 4.50. I don’t think anyone expects that.
Yet, despite these inflated numbers, Wang is still attracting interest from other teams. Today’s rumor du jour comes to us via the Daily Dish. Per the rumors site, Jim Salisbury of The Philadelphia Inquirer noted yesterday that the Phillies have been scouting Wang. The pitching-starved defending World Champs need some arms, and as Salisbury reasons, the Yanks, with Phil Hughes waiting in the wings, could opt to trade Wang.
While it’s awfully flattering of the Phillies to look, chances are close to nil that the Yanks would trade Wang this year. First, while the Yankees have long been reluctant to give Wang a long-term deal, his value is at an all-time low. He is coming off of a bad foot injury and a three-month winless bout of ineffectiveness. His sinker isn’t quite doing what it needs to be doing, and he’s still getting his legs under him. The Yanks could probably land something decent for Wang, but nothing the Phillies would be willing right now to offer could replace Wang’s potential.
Furthermore, Wang is still a big part of the Yanks’ plans. By most accounts, this will be Andy Pettitte‘s last year in pinstripes. The Yanks have the younger pieces waiting in the wings to supplant Pettitte, and to do that, they will rely on Wang to anchor the middle of the rotation. Right now, the Yanks view the 2010 rotation as featuring CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Hughes. They won’t give up on Wang, cost-controlled through the end of 2011 and with a good track record, so easily.
Of course, in the end, everyone has a price. If the Phillies make the right offer, they could probably land Wang. But I wouldn’t read much into this. Ruben Amaro, the Philadelphia GM, is simply doing his due diligence on a potential acquisition, but the Yanks won’t give up on this one so easily.
July 2nd Signing Period Q&A with Ben Badler
Posted by: | CommentsI usually don’t spend too much time covering July 2nd signing period, because there are so many false reports and so much sketchy information out there about international amateur players that it’s hard to know what’s reliable and what’s not. One place that always has reliable info is Baseball America, and I recently had the opportunity to sit down and talk exchange emails Ben Badler, BA’s international free agent guru.
In case you don’t know, July 2nd is when teams can begin to sign international players who aren’t draft eligible as free agents. Most players come from Latin America, but in recent years we’ve seen teams scour Australia, Asia and even parts of Europe for talent. The players must be at least 16-yrs old to sign but, as always, there are some loopholes that could be exploited. Jesus Montero is the Yanks best international signing of late, and big leaguers Melky Cabrera, Robbie Cano, Chien-Ming Wang and Mariano Rivera were all acquired this way in the past.
You can read Ben’s stuff at BA’s site, and you could also follow him on Twitter for more prospect info than you can handle. I think I speak for all of the RABiverse when I say that I greatly appreciate Ben taking time from his hectic schedule to drop some knowledge on us. Here we go…
Mike: The worst kept secret on the international market this year is the Yankees’ interest in catcher Gary Sanchez, and in fact it seems like he’s all but signed on the dotted line. What can you tell us about him, and what kind of bonus is he looking at?
Ben: Sanchez is the top catching prospect this year from Latin America. Anyone I talked to about Sanchez leading up to July 2 figured he would sign with the Yankees, and now it looks like he’s going to sign with them for a bonus of around $3 million (the exact number isn’t clear), which will probably be the third-highest bonus for a Latin American player this year after Miguel Sano and Wagner Mateo. There is another Dominican catcher who is looking at a considerable bonus by the name of Jacob Beltre, but most scouts with whom I have spoken think Sanchez is the better all-around prospect. Some scouts I have talked to aren’t quite as impressed as the Yankees apparently are; he’s got the arm strength, the quick release and he can crush the ball in BP, but some of them aren’t sold on him hitting in games. But the Yankees have seen him more than anyone, and if they’re going to give him approximately $3 million, I’m sure they’re comfortable with his ability to hit in games, either presently or in the future.
