Archive for June, 2009

Jun
12

RAB Live Chat

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Jun
12

RAB’s 2009 Subway Series Preview

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Yankees and MetsThe 13th Annual Subway Series kicks off tonight, as the second place Mets come to the Bronx to take on the second place Yankees. The Yanks are 37-29 all-time against their crosstown rivals in interleague play, 20-13 at home. This year they bring a 34-26 season record into the series while the Mets come in at 31-27. Each team comes in limping, as the Yanks were just swept in heartbreaking fashion up in Fenway, while the Mets just lost two extra inning games at home to the Phillies.

In honor of this year’s renewal of the Subway Series, let’s take a look at how each squad compares to each other on a position by position basis.

Starting Pitchers this Weekend

Friday: Joba Chamberlain vs. Livan Hernandez
These two are sporting identical WHIPs (1.40) and similar ERA’s (3.79 vs. 3.88), but the difference is that Joba is still cutting his teeth at this level while Livan is enjoying his best year since 2004. Throw in Joba’s ability to actually strike guys out (8.3 K/9 vs. Livan’s 5.5), and I think we have a winner. Advantage: Yanks

Saturday: Andy Pettitte vs. TBA
With John Maine hitting the DL, the Mets aren’t sure who will start tomorrow. It could be prospect Jon Niese (6.57 ERA in 5 career starts), AAA starter Nelson Figueroa (5.15 ERA in 40 career starts), or swingman Fernando Nieve out of the pen (4.20 ERA in 11 career starts). Whoever they decide to throw out there will be inferior to Pettitte, despite his highwire act. Advantage: Yanks

Sunday: AJ Burnett vs. Johan Santana
Santana’s last five starts: 4.64 ERA, .848 OPS against. Burnett’s last five starts: 4.13 ERA, .839 OPS against. Just sayin’. Advantage: Mets

Everyday Lineup

Catcher: Jorge Posada vs. Omir Santos
Ex-Yankee farmhand Santos did a tremendous job filling in while the Mets’ other catchers were injured, and has yet to relinquish the starting job. Despite that, he’s got a .298 OBP and a 90 OPS+ Posada’s sitting at .380 and 151, respectively. Advantage: Yankees

First Base: Mark Teixera vs. Fernando Tatis
The Mets ran into some bad luck, as Carlos Delgado went down with hip surgery after putting up a .914 OPS in 26 games. After a brilliant comeback last season, Tatis has filled in for Delgado with a .732 OPS, 2 homers, 9 XBH and 12 RBI this year. Texiera has a .745 SLG with 4 homers, 11 XBH and 13 RBI. In his last 12 games. Next. Advantage: Yanks

Second Base: Robinson Cano vs. Luis Castillo
The poster child for ill-advised contracts, Castillo is actually having himself a nice season right in line with his career averages. Of course that constitutes a 91 OPS+ and a -10.7 UZR/150 at the keystone corner. Robbie Cano is also having a year in line with his career averages, putting up a 107 OPS+ with a 1.3 UZR/150. It would be nice if he weren’t hitting fifth, though. Advantage: Yanks

Shortstop: Derek Jeter vs. Alex Cora
Cora’s .286 AVG and .385 OBP are right there with Jeter’s .298 and .370 marks, but The Cap’n has more than a 50 point advantage in slugging. Jeter’s also got him beat on defense, with a 6.4 UZR/150 compared to Cora’s -35.7. I know Alex Cora wins games, but dude, it’s Derek Jeter. Maybe if Jose Reyes was heathy, this would be a different story. Advantage: Yanks

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez vs. David Wright
Finally, we have ourselves a bit of a competition. Wright leads the lead in AVG (.362) and OBP (.458), and his .984 OPS is top ten in the NL. He’s also sixth in the bigs with 17 steals. Show off. A-Rod‘s been back from his hip injury for over a month now, and even though he hasn’t yet hit his stride, he’s still fashioned a .393 OBP and a .458 SLG. We know A-Rod will be great soon enough, but Wright is great right now. Advantage: Mets

Left Field: Johnny Damon vs. Danny Murphy/Fernando Martinez
The Metsies generally run old buddy Gary Sheffield out to left, but since the series will be played in the Bronx, I imagine he’ll be serving as DH. The Murphtinez Monster has managed a .234-.317-.341 line this year with Murphy doing most of the heavy lifting. Damon’s hit .286-.361-.537 and is in the midst of the best offensive season of his career. Neither contingent has been anything special defensively in 2009, so let’s call that part a draw. Advantage: Yanks

Center Field: Melky Cabrera vs. Carlos Beltran
Melky’s riding his now annual post-April swoon, while Beltran is simply one of the greatest players in the game today, regardless of what Steve Phillips thinks. .341-.431-.561 with Gold Glove defense in center? I’ll take two. Advantage: Mets

Right Field: Nick Swisher vs. Ryan Church
Boneheaded plays aside, Swisher has been tremendously productive at the plate this year, posting a .394 OBP with a .538 SLG. Church has been hampered by injuries as usual, but has a 1.103 OPS in an extremely small sample size since returning. Church is better than he’s been, Swisher isn’t as good as he’s been, but both are quality players. Let’s call this one … Advantage: Push

Designated Hitter: Hideki Matsui vs. Gary Sheffield
Matsui’s one of those guys that just when you think he’s dead, he goes on a tear. He’s hit .260-.350-.475 compared to Sheff’s .250-.380-.427 output, so they’re right in line with each other. Luckily for Godzilla, defense doesn’t count at DH. Advantage: Push

Reserves

Bench: Frankie Cervelli, Angel Berroa, Ramiro Pena, Brett Gardner vs. Brian Schneider, Wilson ValdezDanny Murphy/Fernando Martinez, Jeremy Reed
The nature of the beast calls for the Mets to have a more usable bench than the Yanks, although Gardner’s proven to be somewhat useful as a reserve. But still … Advantage: Mets

Setup Crew: Al Aceves, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, David Robertson, Brett Tomko, Jose Veras vs. Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Fernando Nieve, Bobby Parnell, Brian Stokes, Ken Takahashi
It’s pretty cool how the two pens are constructed in basically the same way, with a young phenom (Hughes & Parnell), veteran swingman (Tomko & Stokes), kinda low leverage but sometimes high leverage middle guy (Robertson & Green), pitchability multi-inning guy (Aceves & Takahashi), hard throwing wildcard (Veras & Nieve) and, of course, the LOOGY (Coke & Feliciano). The Mets’ non-closer bullpen ERA is 3.44, but the Yanks’ is 4.87. Just imagine if JJ Putz wasn’t so craptactular/hurt. Advantage: Mets

Closer: Mariano Rivera vs. Francisco Rodriguez
K-Rod’s been everything the Mets could have hoped for and more, nailing down every save and pitching to a 0.61 ERA. Mo’s struggles have been well documented, but he’s still the man and gets the job done. Call me biased, but I’m not willing to declare Mo dead yet. I’m not going any lower than … Advantage: Push

* * *

So I have the final tally at seven for the Yanks, five for the Mets, and three draws. Given all the Mets’ injuries this year, I don’t think there’s any question that the Yankees are the best team in town right now. Everything lines up nicely for them, so hopefully they can pull out a pair of wins, assuming Santana is an automatic loss.

Photo Credit: CNYcentral.com

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The following is a guest post by Kyle Dugan, but you probably know him better as commenter K.B.D. Any readers interested in submitting guest posts can contact me via e-mail at mike at riveraveblues dot com.

We’re roughly a third of the way through the MLB season, and I don’t know about the rest of you, but DotF is probably my favorite part of RAB. Some of you, like me, get real worked up about the prospects whenever they seem like they’re putting it together. Similarly, sometimes we probably overreact when guys in the minor don’t seem to live up to the hype. It’s my hope that this little snippet of the minors might quell some of your fears about players, as well as temper your enthusiasm for others.

Due for improvement:

Mike Dunn (LHP, AA) – 36.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 2.42 FIP
His ERA-FIP discrepancy is likely due to high BABIP (.360). Dunn is sporting a very impressive 12.25 K/9 on the season, though is struggling a bit with his control (4.75 BB/9). When you’re striking that many people out though, you can get away with being a bit wild. Ten bucks says he’d be more useful out of the pen right now than Tomko or Veras.

Ryan Pope (RHP, AA) – 50.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 3.24 FIP
Pope has pitched decently this season so far, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that from his ERA. Pope has managed to keep his peripherals eerily similar in the last year: 1.90 BB/9 in A+ to a 1.79 BB/9 in AA. He has slightly improved his strikeout rate giving him a 3.80 K/BB. I know we’ve all been critical of Pope as he’s moved through the system. H was drafted in the 3rd round with high expectations and while he hasn’t lived up to them entirely, he’s done an admirable job. Maybe it’s not the results we should be looking at, but his performance: Ryan Pope’s FIP has outperformed his ERA every year he’s been with the Yankees.

Year ERA FIP Discrepancy
2007 (A-) 2.49 2.44 .05
2008 (A+) 4.15 3.57 .58
2009 (AA) 4.83 3.24 1.59

Justin Snyder (LHB, 2B, AA) – .198/.307/.298 in 139 PAs
Snyder’s line is really nothing to look at, understandably, though his IsoD does jump out (.109), so he’s not just going up there and throwing his time at the plate away. He’s being selective at the plate, keeping his walks up and strikeouts down to the tune of a .86 BB/K. J-Snyde (because our system needs more letter-dash-last-name guys) is doing this after completely skipping A+. If Snyder could get a full season of ABs at second, we could be seeing a damn respectable line out of him.

I can’t say I blame the Tony Franklin for not playing Snyder, however, as the AGNH-ostic (All Glove, No Hit) Reegie Corona is dispelling that moniker by OPSing a solid .854. Maybe he’s coming around after all.

By the way, does anybody like my AGNH-ostic thing?

Due for regression:

Zach Kroenke (RHP, AAA) – 25.0 IP, 1.08 ERA, 4.16 FIP
Kroenke wasn’t going to maintain a 1.08 the entire year, anyways but it’s noteworthy that his ERA is outperforming his FIP by 3 full runs. That’s more than significant. What’s really worrying is his K rates have slipped while his walk rate is still very high, leading to a K/BB of 1.13. That’s not a pretty number no matter how you look at it. His average against is a paltry .175 largely due to his BABIP of .207. His LOB% is… wait for it… 94.4%. Zachary has been a lucky man in the early going, look for his performance to come back to Earth.

Austin Jackson (RHB, CF, AAA) – .335/.408/.443 in 235 PAs
I know we’d all like to think that this is what we’ll see from A-Jax at the major league level, but there are some numbers here that have to give us pause. First off, his BABIP is .476 while his career line sits at .365. H’s also posting his highest K rate since his rookie year in 2006, striking out 28.8% of the time. When he’s not busy striking out, he’s actually making pretty damn good contact: his line drive percent sits at 22.1%, 7.0% higher than his career line. Austin has been the beneficiary of some luck this year and it’s already starting to show: in the last two weeks he has been OPSing .110 point less than his year to date.

Reegie Corona (2B, AA) – .318/.438/.417 in 160 PAs
… Or maybe he’s just lucky. Corona is seemingly looking to prove he can be more than a defense first second baseman. After being taken by the Mariners in the Rule V Draft only to be returned, Corona has been great. Unfortunately, it’s probably not going to last. His 21.2% walk rate is roughly double his career average. His BABIP rests at a friendly .371, .061 points higher than his total minors line. Overall, his OPS this year is .168 points higher than his career OPS and unfortunately for us, the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior. Maybe it’s a sign of things to come, or maybe its a guy getting lucky and hot at the same time.

There it is for your consideration. If you want to let me know what a terrible job I’ve done, I post as K.B.D. around here and will be perusing the comments. Thanks for reading.

Categories : Guest Columns
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Jun
12

An SOS from the bullpen

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Anyone reading this post of mine should first read Joe’s very thorough and level-headed recap of last night’s Yankee disaster. While I was busy cursing at the TV and calling for Joe Girardi’s head, Joe managed to talk me down.

That is, until Joe Girardi dared to rationalize his decision to have Mariano Rivera. Kim Jones asked him if he considered using Rivera, and Girardi replied: “I was going to if the situation arose, but the situation did not arise.” Rivera, by the way, is still sitting in the Fenway bullpen, waiting for the situation to arise.

Later, Girardi said that he would have used Rivera for four outs but not five or six. To me, that makes no sense. Rivera would have thrown an extra seven or eight pitches to get outs five and six. Once he enters the game for a save longer than one inning, he has to warm up twice anyway. So the Yanks should maximize the outs they get for him. (Related: I dread the day Mariano Rivera isn’t around. It’s coming up on us rather quickly.)

Anyway, after the game, my sister and I were having it out on G-Chat, and apparently, she too could manage the Yanks. Victoria said:

I wanted Rivera to pitch 6 outs immediately when there were two on and no out. Obviously, Rivera…It was SO. OBVIOUS. It really disturbs me that i keep thinking of the obvious things to do that aren’t done. I’m a stupid little girl. No one’s even telling me. I’m thinking of them all by myself. I really should manage the team!!!! Or, like, someone’s senile grandmother.

Someone’s senile grandmother indeed.

Our half-jokes aside, this problem stretches back beyond Joe Girardi’s unwillingness to learn from his previous high leverage mistakes. When push came to shove tonight, when CC Sabathia was at 120 pitches, when the game was on the line, the Yankees had no one in the bullpen outside of Mo upon whom they could rely to get outs. Gone are the days of Graeme Lloyd, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton or even Steve Karsay and, yes, Tom Gordon. If the starters don’t go eight, the Yankees have to hold their collective breaths and pray for the best.

Last night, the game was Al Aceves‘ to lose. He was tossed into a no-win situation and walked away with, well, no win. Phil Coke helped out as well. Tonight against the Mets, it might be Jose Veras’ turn to inherit some less-than-optimal situation or maybe David Robertson and Brett Tomko get the call. I’m not inspiring too much confidence, right?

The Yankees of course don’t want to be in this position. The best laid plans had Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte splitting the eighth inning/set-up duties. Both have missed most of the last six weeks. While Bruney should be back next week, Marte is still a few weeks away, and we don’t know how effective he’ll be. Even just getting back one would be enough. With Bruney, last night’s game takes on a completely different tone when Sabathia leaves.

But outside of Bruney, the Yankees need bullpen help. Last month, Joe pondered the potential relief help. He examined Chad Qualls, Jose Valverde, Huston Street and Russ Springer. Today, Ken Rosenthal says those are exactly the names under consideration by the Yankee brass, and officials have already expressed interest in Huston Street.

It never makes sense to give up much for a reliever. They break down; they lose their ability to get outs; they are replaceable. But the Yankees’ relief corps need some relief right now. With the draft behind us and the trade deadline seven weeks away, the Yankees will kick the tires on a whole bunch of relievers. Who wins Yankee Bullpen Roulette is anyone’s guess, but it better be someone who can throw strikes and get outs. For better or, in my opinion, for worse, Rivera won’t be in for those six-out saves the Yankees need so desperately.

Categories : Death by Bullpen
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Jun
12

Yankees lose. Yankees lose.

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To Yankees fans, last night’s was a big game. In the big picture it was just one of 162, but after losing two straight, not to mention all seven this season, to the Red Sox, it felt like a must-win. Again, in the big picture it wasn’t. What’s happened now that they’ve lost? (A: They’ll play 102 more games.) It might feel like the season’s trickled down the drain, but trust me when I say it hasn’t.

While the major action took place in the later innings, there was plenty going on in the early frames. In each of the first two innings the Yankees saw the leadoff hitter reach second base with no outs, but in neither could they bring him around to score.

It was an especial shame in the first. Brad Penny had just plunked Alex Rodriguez, which drew a warning and precluded any attempt at retribution, putting runners on first and third with two outs for Robinson Cano. What followed was an intense at bat in which Cano fouled off the first seven pitches, took two balls, fouled off the 10th, and finally on the 11th flied out to left. Balls three and four landed in the seats at some point, but Cano’s not the kind of guy who’s going to let them go by.

The second ended in an infuriating manner. After doubling to lead off the inning, Nick Swisher found himself still standing at second base with one out and Francisco Cervelli at the dish. Frankie popped one to left, not deep but enough to approach the shallow monster. Swisher went all-in on it bouncing off the wall and he lost. Jason Bay doubled him up.

This was the second night in a row where the Red Sox caught Swisher drifting too far. There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, it’s probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once…shame on…shame on you. It fooled me. We can’t get fooled again. Don’t be surprised if Gardner starts in center tomorrow, with Melky and Damon flanking him.

The following four innings were only remarkable because Brad Penny continued to post zeroes. He entered the game with a 5.85 ERA, 6.51 at Fenway, and the Yankees couldn’t manage a run off him. Granted, he did throw 65 percent of his pitches for strikes, but he tossed 117 of them total, which is quite the sum through six innings.

On the other end, CC did his part, limiting the Red Sox to one run through seven innings. The only damage came when a 45-year-old with dry eyes popped one the other way. That was another emotional trip which warped reality a bit. Solo homers happen — Johan Santana gives up a ton of ‘em. It just stings that it was the second of the series for Ortiz, he he had hit only two for the year and was hitting on the Interstate heading into the series. His single in the seventh put him over .200.

Here comes the good part. With Penny done after the sixth, Manny Delcarmen, member of the insurmountable Red Sox bullpen, entered the game. The Yankees wasted no time in taking back the game. Melky singled, Cervelli doubled down the third base line, scoring Cabrera who was moving on the pitch. A new ballgame had dawned. It wouldn’t last for long.

With runners on first and third and two outs, Alex Rodriguez stepped to the plate. A-Rod detractors cringed; A-Rod supporters prayed. Manny Delcarmen made is pitches, but on the sixth toss of the at bat he made the wrong one, and Alex drilled it to center, plating both runners and putting the Yanks up by a couple. It would be the team’s only hit in 11 at bats with runners in scoring position.

Here comes the bad part. After having thrown 106 pitches in the first seven frames, CC Sabathia came out to face Nick Green in the eighth. Nothing wrong here. As the Milwaukee Brewers proved last year, CC’s definitely the guy to stick with here. Green stymied the Yanks by singling and bringing up the top of the order. Again, no reason to go to a lesser reliever in this spot.

CC and Pedroia squared off, and it was much like how Penny and Cano battled in the first. Except, of course, that Pedroia was willing to take balls three and four. He screamed something and jogged to first after CC missed way wide. So what is the manager to do here?

Girardi decided to stick with his ace. Some might have preferred he go to the bullpen there, but I don’t think Girardi made the wrong call. Remember, as Girardi saw the situation it was a choice between Sabathia and Aceves. Can you blame him for choosing Sabathia? I find it hard to.

What’s to blame here is conventional managerial strategy. Yes, this is the part where I talk about how you want your best pitcher in this situation. If the decision of who to face Drew is no longer between CC and Aceves, but is now between CC and Mariano, I think the choice is Mo. This applies both before and after the Drew at bat, but especially after.

In the former, runners were on first and second with no outs. The started has thrown 121 pitches and just missed badly for ball four. The guy who makes the 15th fewest outs in the AL is coming to the plate, and he’s followed by the guy who makes the fewest outs. The choice is CC, your tiring ace, or Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time who, after faltering in one game last week, slammed the door in emphatic fashion in the next two. Who do you come up with?

If the answer wasn’t Mo before Drew singled, it sure was after. The situation was the same as before, except it was a one-run game. Again, there was no one out, and the hitter who makes the fewest outs among all MLB starters was at the plate. Instead of inserting his best to face his opponent’s best, Girardi went with No. 2. He paid for it. Youkilis singled, which mercifully did not score a run. Jason Bay’s single did, though, and a Mike Lowell sac fly put the Red Sox up for good.

As is natural in moments of dire frustration, many fans called for Girardi’s head during and after the game. We saw dozens of tweets, I received a number of emails, and I’m sure there were plenty of comments in the game thread — which I cannot bring myself to read — to that effect. However, firing Girardi because of the way he managed this game would accomplish nothing.

Mike might have put it perfectly when he said that a book of cliches could manage this team. No manager of the Yankees, down in the game in the division to the Red Sox while playing in Fenway, will bring in his closer unless he plans for him to finish the game. Girardi said that he would have used Mo for a four-out save, but not five or six. “I was going to [call on Mo in the eighth] if the situation arose,” Girardi told reporters after the game, “but the situation did not arise.” I beg to differ.

What separates last night’s scenario was that the best hitters on the best team in the division were at the plate with runners on. The Yankees had a small lead to protect. Conventional baseball wisdom would hold that you save your closer, your best bullpen option, for the end of the game so he can lock down the lead. That cannot happen, though, if there is no lead to protect.

Mo simply gives the team a better chance to survive a threatening situation. If he can pick up for CC and get through the eighth while allowing just one run, the Yanks take a 3-2 lead into the ninth with the bottom of the Sox order due up. Mo can pitch to maybe one batter before he reaches that four-out limit Girardi set. Then you bring in Aceves to face the bottom of the order. Isn’t that a more comfortable scenario than bringing in Aceves to face the best hitters in the lineup with men on base and no one out?

Alas, this goes against “the book” so most managers will dismiss the idea. Not when the team is a contender. Yeah, maybe if the team’s in last place the manger will do something like bring in the closer in a tie game on the road, but don’t expect that from guys who will be second guessed endlessly by the bottomless media pit of New York.

No one feels good about the past three games. Not the manager, not the coaching staff, not the players, not the fans. The disappointment and frustration will wear off, though. They have 47 games left until they face the Red Sox again, and a lot can change between now and then. A lot, I expect, will change between now and then. The Yankees might have a stronger bullpen. Their starters might hit a groove. The bats might be firing on all cylinders. This could be an excellent 62-game run. They looked like a team capable of it before the series. If they really are a good team, they won’t let this one roadblock in June impede their entire season.

In the end, the Captain put it best. When asked, “Do you have any concerns about this club?” Jeter looked at the reporter and replied: “Nope.” The room fell silent. The Captain had spoken. It is time to move on.

Categories : Game Stories
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Jun
11

Shelley, bullpen carry SWB to win

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So, who had five starts in the “how long before Chris Garcia ends up back on the DL” pool? I set the over/under at 6.5 starts back in May, so congrats to everyone who said under.

Robert Pimpsner of Baby Bombers tells me the Yanks have signed 11th round Neil Medchill & 40th rounder Ben Watkins, and assigned both to Short Season Staten Island. And because I know you’re curious with the draft just passing and all, the Staten Island season starts next Friday on June 19th, and the Rookie GCL Yanks starts the following Tuesday on June 23rd.

Triple-A Scranton (9-4 win over Gwinnett)
Kevin Russo & Austin Jackson: both 0 for 4 – Russo drew two walks & scored twice … Jackson did the same, but once each
Cody Ransom: 0 for 3, 1 BB
Doug Bernier: 1 for 1, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 E (throwing)
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB – RBI’s 55 & 56
Todd Linden: 2 for 5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 E (fielding)
Juan Miranda & Justine Leone: both 1 for 4, 1 BB – Miranda drove in a run & K’ed twice … Leone went deep, drove in two, scored a run & K’ed
John Rodriguez: 1 for 5, 1 R, 2 K
Chris Stewart: 1 for 3, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 K
The Ghost of Kei Igawa: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 3-3 GB/FB – 41 of 67 pitches were strikes (61.2%)
Edwar Ramirez: 2.2 IP, zeroes, 4 K, 2-2 GB/FB – 25 of 37 pitches were strikes (67.6%)
Jon Albaladejo: 3 IP, zeroes, 3 K, 5-1 GB/FB – 21 of 25 pitches were strikes (84%)

Read More→

Categories : Down on the Farm
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Jun
11

Game 60 Spillover Thread III

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A-Rod broke the last thread.

Categories : Game Threads
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Jun
11

Game 60 Spillover Thread II

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CC deserves better than this.

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (290)
Jun
11

Game 60 Spillover Thread

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At least put up a damn fight …

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (384)

Over the past few games it seems like Yankees fans have gone from this:

To this:

I can’t say the collective frustration is undeserved. The Yanks have gotten nothing from their starting pitching over the past two games, and what they got from the offense last night wasn’t enough. Not only was it not enough to win the game, but it wasn’t enough given how many opportunities they gave themselves. It’s been quite an ugly series made even uglier because of the way they played heading into it.

Tonight they face Brad Penny, the Red Sox No. 5 starter and subject of various lopsided trade rumors. The Yankees have faced Penny just once in his career, and that was all the way back in 2000, during his rookie campaign. The Yanks got him for three runs in five innings, forcing him to throw 118 pitches in the process. Nowadays would you ever see a manager leave a rookie pitcher out there for 118 pitches? Anyway, the only current Yanks who faced him were Jeter and Posada, the latter of whom is not playing tonight.

As mentioned, Penny has surfaced in a number of trade rumors as he’s considered a “surplus” starter, since the Sox have John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz waiting to go. There is little chance, though, that it’s nearly as good a trade as the last one Penny was involved in. That occurred in 2004, when Paul DePodesta shipped Juan Encarnacion, Guerillmo Mota, and Paul LoDuca to the Marlins for Penny, Hee Seop Choi, and Bill Murphy. The fans in LA, who had for some reason grown to love LoDuca, hated DePo for making the move, but it was one that undoubtedly benefited the Dodgers. LoDuca was 32 at the time and sported a .795 OPS. In no full season since 2001 had LoDuca put up those numbers, so DePo traded him at the height of his value, and he was right. LoDuca did put up a .783 OPS in 2006 with the Mets, but was generally below average after the trade.

The other two pieces, Mota and Encarnacion, were never really good. Encarnacion struggled to produce league-aveage numbers while playing right field, which is akin to playing with a 10-pound weight around your neck. Mota was another guy DePo traded at the height of his value. After posting a Mo-like 204 ERA+ in 105 innings in 2003, Mota was once again mowing down the competition in 2004. DePo traded him, drew ire, but was vindicated in the end, as Mota has pretty much stunk since. Penny, meanwhile, became a solid cog in the Dodgers rotation, peaking with 208 innings of 3.03 ERA ball in 2007. Yet despite this smart trade, DePo was run out of town by the likes of Bill Plaschke, who favored Ned Colletti, a man who signed Juan Pierre for $50 million, among other obvious blunders.

CC is the Yanks last hope until the Sox head to the Stadium on August 6. In 48.1 career innings against the Red Sox, Sabathia holds a 3.91 ERA, striking out 35 and walking just 8 in that span. The Yanks will need him at the top of his game tonight. I don’t want to fathom what will happen if he’s not.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Hideki Matsui, DH
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Francisco Cervelli, C

And on the mound, number fifty-two, CC Sabathia.

Categories : Game Threads
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