Archive for June, 2009
Game 55 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsIt was 2-0, I walk away from the TV for 15 minutes and it’s 5-3? WTF?
Game 55: The Big Thing vs. The Next Big Thing
Posted by: | CommentsSo we’ve got ourselves a nice little pitching matchup today. CC Sabathia takes the hill for the Bombers, and has a 2.08 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in his last five starts, averaging more than 7.2 IP per start. He’s held opponents to a Nick Punto-esque .501 OPS during that stretch. I guess the central idea, the main theme of this paragraph is that CC has been really, really good of late.
He’ll be opposed by the wunderkind David Price, who in two starts and nine innings this year has struck out 17 batters. The problem is that with high strikeout totals comes high pitch counts, and Price has reached the century mark at, or before the fifth inning in both of his starts. The Yankees lead the AL with a .358 team OBP, so the Rays bullpen could be in for a long day. Of course, with a pitcher like Price it could be the Yankees who are in for a long day.
Here’s the starting nine:
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Posada, DH
Cano, 2B
Swisher, RF
Melky, CF
Cervelli, C
And on the mound, CC Sabathia.
2009 Draft: BA’s Mock Draft v3.0
Posted by: | CommentsBaseball America posted version three of their Mock Draft yesterday. It’s subscriber only, but I can tell you that they have the Yankees taking HP Matt Purke. They had the Yanks taking Texas prepster Slade Heathcott in version two, and Cal centerfielder Brett Jackson in version one. If you’re keeping score of all the mock drafts at home, that’s two for Purke, two for Heathcott, two for Jackson, and one for Lipscomb LHP Rex Brothers.
Jim Callis again echoed the Yanks’ interest in Heathcott and Jackson in the MDv3.0 piece, but added two more names to the mix: Notre Dame centerfielder AJ Pollock and California prep catcher Max Stassi. Pollock is a very good pure hitter from the right side but doesn’t really do anything else well (scouting report, video), while Stassi is a solid all-around backstop with tremendous makeup and competitive drive (scouting report, video). Of the realistic possiblities, Purke is still the best.
Smoltz, like Maddux, turned down Yankee dollars
Posted by: | CommentsAt this point it’s common knowledge that Greg Maddux turned down Yankee money to sign with the Braves. The Yankees had offered five years at $34 million in the winter of 1992-93, the year after Maddux had won the Cy Young award with the Cubs. Instead he signed a five-year, $28 million deal with Atlanta. That’s $6 million, or 18 percent, less than what the Yankees offered. This would be akin to CC Sabathia having signed with the Giants for seven years and $132 million.
These types of stories are the types you don’t hear often. After all, it’s about the money, stupid. Yet yesterday, via MLBTR, we learned of one more such incidence. This involved another Brave, John Smoltz, who turned down $53 million Yankee dollars to sign with the Braves for $30 million. Looking through Cot’s, it appears Smoltz refers to the three-year, $30 million contract he signed after the 2001 season. It’s understandable why the Yankees would have wanted him at that point.
Then again, it’s easy to forget that Smoltz had been having trouble with his shoulder in 2001 and had been moved to the bullpen. He started just five games that year and finished 20, logging just 59 innings in the process. Perhaps the Yankees wanted to give Smoltz another try in the rotation. That would be the only way this would have made sense. The Yankees already had the best closer in baseball, who was coming off yet another sub-1.00 WHIP season. Smoltz would have gotten a chance to close, as Mariano missed some stretches, including from August 15 to September 15. Obviously, no one could have known that at the time, which is why Smoltz turning down the money made sense. That is, if the plan was for him to pitch in the bullpen.
Instead, the Yankees signed David Wells to shore up their rotation, and were rewarded by him going 19-7 with a 3.75 ERA. They also nabbed Steve Karsay, who pitched well in his first season and wound up being the one filling in for Mo. That, however, was essentially it for Karsay’s career.
Smoltz had a $12 million club option for 2005, which the Braves were apparently going to decline. Did the Yankees come knocking again? I’m sure they did. That was the winter of Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson. Smoltz wound up signing a two-year, $20 million contract with an $8 million option for 2007. The Yankees surely could have, and more than likely would have, topped that. That year Smoltz transitioned back to the rotation and pitched 229 innings of 3.06 ERA ball. The Yanks sure could have used that in 2005.
What makes this story odder is that Smoltz turned down less money from the Braves, $2 million, to pitch for the Red Sox and their $5 million this year. Why the change of heart? Was Smoltz finally fed up with taking the ATL discount? Or did he not see the Braves making much noise this year? Dude’s 42 years old. Surely he wants one more crack at the title. It’s a shame he didn’t come to New York when he had the opportunity. He might have brought home another one a bit earlier.
McAllister dominates, but Montero leaves game after collision
Posted by: | CommentsJesus Montero was only the third hottest prospect in the minors this week. Zach McAllister and DJ Mitchell each got an honorable mention.
Make sure you vote for the Double-A Eastern League All-Star Team.
Triple-A Scranton (8-3 win over Syracuse)
Cody Ransom: 0 for 3, 2 K
Austin Jackson: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K – got a nice little seven game hit streak going
Todd Linden: 4 for 5, 3 R, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB – 40 RBI good for 3rd in the league
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 4, 2 R, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K – leads the league HR (by 8pts), RBI (by 10), SLG (by 62), and OPS (by 22) … holy schnikees
Juan Miranda: 1 for 5, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI
John Rodriguez, Eric Duncan & Kevin Cash: all 1 for 4 – J-Rod drew a walk … E-Dunc scored a run & drove one in … Cash K’ed three times
Justin Leone: 3 for 4, 2 RBI, 1 K
Josh Towers: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 8-5 GB/FB - 58 of 91 pitches were strikes (63.7%)
Anthony Claggett: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 5-1 GB/FB – 12 of 18 pitches were strikes (66.7%)
Mark Melancon: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 8 of 11 pitches were strikes
Open Thread: Who have been the most valuable Yankees?
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees’ season is one-third of the way over, and the team is currently 32-22, tied with the Red Sox for the best record in the American League. I figured now is as good a time as any to see which players have been the most valuable to the team. I know I’ve been shoving the wonderful wins above replacement (WAR) stat down your throats the past few days but, as I just said, it is wonderful. It factors in defense, position, the whole nine, and frankly it’s the best all-encompassing stat we have right now.
As a team, the Yanks’ position players have racked up 12.8 WAR, the second best total in baseball behind the Rays (14.1). The pitchers, however, come in at just 3.3 WAR, 23rd best in the game. The pitching staff has started to come around in the past few weeks, so when we check back in at the two-thirds point of the season, I expect them to rank higher.
Let’s start with the players who have given the Yanks the most value this season.
Top Five Pitchers
- CC Sabathia, 2.0 WAR
- Andy Pettitte, 0.8
- AJ Burnett, 0.7
- Joba Chamberlain, 0.6
- Mariano Rivera & Brian Bruney tied at 0.4
Top Five Position Players
- Derek Jeter, 2.1
- Mark Teixeira, 2.0
- Johnny Damon, 1.7
- Jorge Posada, 1.5
- Robinson Cano, 1.5
For comparison’s sake, the most valuable pitchers in baseball this year are Zack Greinke (4.4) & Roy Halladay (3.4), and the most valuable position players are Evan Longoria (3.2) & Raul Ibanez (3.1). It shouldn’t come as a shock that CC has been the Yanks’ most valuable pitcher. Despite their less than sterling ERAs, Pettitte & Burnett provide a ton of value based just on all the innings they soak up. Phil Hughes, Al Aceves and David Robertson were next up at 0.2 WAR each.
Derek Jeter’s recent hot streak pushed him past Tex as the team’s most valuable position player (and player overall), but his improved defense (+3.0 UZR/150) has also boosted his stock. Brett Gardner & Nick Swisher (tied at 1.3) are next up on the list, while Alex Rodriguez comes in at just 0.7 after missing a month of the season.
Here’s the guys who are bringing up the rear:
Bottom Five Pitchers
- Edwar Ramirez, -0.5
- Jon Albaladejo, -0.4
- Phil Coke, -0.3
- Damaso Marte, -0.3
- Jose Veras, -0.3
Bottom Five Position Players
- Angel Berroa, -0.5
- Cody Ransom, -0.3
- Xavier Nady, -0.1
- Kevin Cash, 0.0
- Frankie Cervelli, 0.0
The least valuable pitchers in the game this year have been Mike Lincoln of the Reds (-0.8) & the recently released Duaner Sanchez (-0.7). The least valuable hitters are Garrett Atkins & David Ortiz (tied at -1.2), while Brian Giles comes in at -1.1. The good news is that just two of the pitchers who make up the Yanks’ bottom five are still on the active roster, and one of those two has been relegated to mop-up duty. Chien-Ming Wang has managed to get back to replacement level, or just about at -0.1 WAR.
The bottom five position players are all spare parts, except for Nady who got hurt so early in the season that his sample isn’t very meaningful. Ramiro Pena also checked in at 0.0 WAR, so he and the two backstops have been exactly replacement level, which is what you’d expect out of your backup backup utility infielder and number three and four catchers.
If you want to see the full team list, the pitchers are here and the position players are here. The numbers will start to make more sense and be a bit more representative of true performance as the season marches on, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into this just yet. Anyway, use this as your open thread for the night. Talk about whatever you like, just be nice.
Tonight’s game rained out
Posted by: | CommentsLooks like tonight’s a rain-out. CC vs. Price gets pushed back a day. From there, it’s anyone’s guess what the Yanks do with the rotation. It would have been nice to see them try to get in two tomorrow, since they have the extra starter on the roster. That will not be the case, though. I’d guess they just push everyone back a day, which lines up Pettitte-Wang-CC for the Boston series.
Update (5:13 p.m.): Girardi said that Pettitte will go Monday against TB, and Burnett will go in the opener against the Sox.
All the best third basemen have daddy issues
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When Selena Roberts broke the story in February that A-Rod was one of the 104 names on the supposedly anonymous list of steroid users, we quickly learned that she did so while in the process of researching a book about the Yanks’ enigmatic superstar. For months, as the book’s release date moved around to accommodate A-Rod’s stint on the disabled list, we wondered what shocking revelations the book would hold.
In the end, the answer ended up being “not very much.” Short on sources and new information, A-Rod: The Many Lives of Alex Rodriguez comes across as a faux-amateur psychologist’s examination of A-Rod’s supposed daddy issues. It features some allegations about pitch-tipping that have been refuted on the record by numerous teammates of Alex’s, and Roberts attempts to portray A-Rod as guilty by association because he lived in Miami at the same time that other, more famous people who used steroids were there as well. As the low sales numbers have shown, a flimsy, anonymously sourced and poorly written book that reveals more about A-Rod’s tendencies to undertip at Hooter’s shouldn’t and won’t receive much attention.
By now, we all know the meat of Roberts’ allegations. Somehow, she was able to uncover the fact that A-Rod’s name was on a list of failed drug tests. The list was supposed to be anonymous, but as she details, players had to sign their names next to their sample number. Generally protective of its interests and members, the Players’ Union dropped the ball big time.
But beyond the steroid revelations, confirmed by A-Rod, nothing else in Roberts’ book holds much water. She alleges pitch tipping but can’t back it up through on-the-record sources or statistical analysis. She notes that when A-Rod was in high school, he may have trained at the same gym as other known steroid users. Well, based on the way some guys at my gym look, so have I. She hints at PED use by noting A-Rod’s growth spurt between 15 and 18 without acknowledging that crazy little thing called puberty.
As the attention moves to A-Rod on the field, we hear the same tales of A-Rod as Joe Torre and Tom Verducci told in The Yankee Years. In fact, Roberts relies on Torre’s book as one of her sources for much of the under-the-table Yankee criticism of A-Rod. She says that A-Rod always felt the need to compete, that he slept around with women, that his teammates regarded him as a phony off the field and a superstar on it. Again, she offers up nothing new.
At times, though, Roberts puts on her reporter’s cap and digs into A-Rod’s past life. She talks to his former wife Cynthia and the dad who walked out when A-Rod was just 10 years old. In fact, it is this dad whom Roberts blames for A-Rod’s downfall. All of A-Rod’s shenanigans — from steroids to the Boras-driven effort to land him two record-setting contracts to the off-field behavior — are the result of A-Rod’s daddy issues. Dr. Freud Roberts is not, and even in the age of pop sociology/psychology, she can’t hold a candle to the Malcolm Gladwells of the world.
In the end, the book is a big zero, and Roberts has been roundly taken to task for it as in this interview on WFAN. If it accomplishes anything, it will rally fans around A-Rod while confirming for others what they already know. It is, in a phrase, a great big nothing.
If you really want to read this thin biography, you can find A-Rod: The Many Lives of Alex Rodriguez on Amazon. Using that link nets us a few bucks, but if I were you, I’d just save my money.
Could Andy Pettitte win 300?
Posted by: | CommentsJust after the Giants secured Randy Johnson’s 300th career victory, Keith Law said: “Next up: Three days of articles on how Randy Johnson will be the last 300-game winner we ever see. My advice is that you ignore them.” Amen, Keith. Not only are there a few current pitchers who can get to 300 wins. As Mike later noted, CC Sabathia has 122 wins at age 28, which is just slightly behind the pace of Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens, and a bit ahead of Tom Glavine. However, the most important comparison is Randy Johnson himself, who had just 49 wins at age 28. Longevity, not a bevy of 20-win seasons, is the key to getting to 300.
This is true of most baseball records. Just look at Pete Rose and his record 4,256 hits. Through his age-34 season he had 2,547 hits, just 12 more than Derek Jeter at that point. Rose had to accumulate 1,709 hits from age 35 on to attain his record. Likewise, Randy Johnson had to pick up 157 wins, or more than half of his total, from age 35 on. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that these players had to stick around for a long time to attain these lofty marks. Even as someone who won four straight Cy Young awards, Johnson had to last through age 45 to get 300 wins.
There certainly could be more 300 winners in baseball’s future. There won’t be as many, of course, given the way teams manage their pitchers’ workloads. But there will always be talented people who remain relatively healthy throughout their career and are able to pitch into their late 30s and early 40s. Those pitchers certainly have a shot to pick up 300 wins along the way, just like Johnson and Glavine did, despite not having stellar win totals in their late 20s.
Dave Pinto wonders if Andy Pettitte could be the next to 300. This might seem outlandish, and in a way it is. Pettitte is 80 wins away from 300 and is 37 years old. Even if he somehow picked up 15 wins this year (which would be possible if his back calms down), he’d still need 70 wins from age 38 on to attain that 300 mark. Combine that with the decision Pettitte has to make after every season, and it would seem foolish to even consider him for 300. Yet, consider the circumstances.
Starting pitching is hard to find. If Andy Pettitte is effective and wants to continue pitching, the Yanks would have to strongly consider keeping him around. Even if they decided to move on and go with the younger pitchers, Pettitte could certainly find a job elsewhere — perhaps while remaining in New York. He’d have to average 15 wins per year if he played through his age-42 season, though, which makes this seem unfeasible. Not impossible by any means. Just highly improbable.
Pinto admits this, though he does finish off with a strong point:
In the mid-1990s stories circulated about the end of the 300 game winner. Those stories turned out to be extremely wrong. There will be more 300 game winners, and I think some of them will surprise us.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is why I continue watching baseball every day from April through October. Anything can happen in any at bat, on any day, in any season, and over the course of any career. I’m sure we’ll see another 300 game winner, and as Pinto says, it might not be someone we expect.
RAB Live Chat
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