Archive for June, 2009
2009 Pre-Draft Top 30 Prospects List
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I post three personal prospect lists a year, but the pre-draft list is by far my least favorite. There hasn’t been enough time for anything to really change from my Preseason Top 30, except maybe for a few injuries and a graduation or two. However, I do like this list because it shows me how much my opinion of some players have changed in a relatively short amount of time. Obviously most of that is performance driven, but we also have to consider other factors like health and consistency. Joe Morgan would be proud.
Anyway, the top five prospects are the same as the preseason list, but you’ll notice they’ve been shuffled around a bit. Unlike most instances when players drop because they’ve been disappointing, this movement is due to a few players making improvements and having tremendous seasons. Two players have graduated to the bigs from my preseason list early in the season (Brett Gardner & Al Aceves), and four others have dropped off the list entirely for various reasons (Carmen Angelini, Humberto Sanchez, Brandon Laird & Steven Jackson).
Keep in mind that there’s really not much difference between prospect #3 and prospect #6, or prospect #11 and prospect #22. It’s just a matter of preference, so don’t get too worked up if one of your favorite prospects is lower than you expected. Anywho, let’s get to it…
- Jesus Montero, C: destroyed the pitcher friendly Florida State League, and he’s now playing in AA as a teenager
- Austin Jackson, CF: hasn’t shown much power yet and he’ll always be prone to the strikeout, but his walk rate just keeps getting better
- Zach McAllister, RHP: more than holding his own as a 21-yr old in AA, and it’s not just because of the pitcher haven known as Waterfront Park (1.40 ERA on the road)
- Andrew Brackman, RHP: he’s passed the “just stay healthy” portion of the season, now he needs to start fufilling some of that promise
- Mark Melancon, RHP: low walks, high strikeouts, high groundballs, lots to like, he just needs to be challenged now
- Dellin Betances, RHP: struggled to maintain the impovements he made in the second half last year, then he went down with a forearm injury
- Phil Coke, LHP: he is what he is, a legit ML reliever that’ll make you nervous in big spots from time to time
- Austin Romine, C: rock solid, and he’ll finally get a chance to get out from under Montero’s shadow
- Jeremy Bleich, LHP: good K/BB, but I’m a bit worried because he doesn’t miss many bats
- David Robertson, RHP: he’s done all he can in the minors, now he just has to take advantage of his big league opportunities
- Manny Banuelos, LHP: tremendous strikeout rate (9.78 Kper9) and good walk rate (2.77 BBper9), lots to like here
- Wilkins DeLaRosa, LHP: ditto Banuelos’ comment, except with a 9.70 Kper9 & 3.42 BBper9
- Jairo Heredia, RHP: hasn’t pitched this year because of “soreness and tightness,” but all the tools are there for him to be very successful
- George Kontos, RHP: stuff is finally translating into consistent results, he’s pitched his way into big league consideration
- Mike Dunn, LHP: a two-outing hiccup in early May skewed his numbers, but he’s dominating both RHB & LHB with a super high K rate (11.53 Kper9)
- Chris Garcia, RHP: flashing the same outstanding stuff, but as usual it’s just a question of health
- Bradley Suttle, 3B: hasn’t played this year because of offseason shoulder surgery, doesn’t sound like he’ll be back anytime soon
- Brett Marshall, RHP: holding his own in his first full professional season, needs to do a better job against RHB though
- Arodys Vizcaino, RHP: big time stuff will be unleashed on the short season NY-Penn League later this month
- Frankie Cervelli, C: filled in admirably while Jorge Posada was out, but he really needs regular at-bats in the minors
- David Adams, 2B: showing good contact skills and plate discipline, in line for a midseason promotion
- DJ Mitchell, RHP: burst on the scene in a big way, but has to do better against LHB to keep it up
- Ramiro Pena, IF: big league defense, but another guy who should be getting regular at-bats in the minors
- Juan Miranda, 1B: big time improvements against LHP bode well for his future as a trade bait
- Kevin Russo, IF: struggling with some various leg injuries, but he’s flashed the same offensive skills he showed during his breakout year last year
- Ivan Nova, RHP: save for one bad outing in early May, it looks like he’s finally having that breakout year we’ve all been waiting for
- Ryan Pope, RHP: having an okay year in AA, but a move to the pen may be in order
- Garrison Lassiter, 3B: keeping his head above water in full season ball, but he’s been on the DL for over a month now with a mystery injury
- Jorge Vazquez, 1B: has tremendous power, but he’s got an odd reverse platoon split that needs fixin’
- Jon Albaladejo, RHP: I still believe he can become a solid ML middle reliever
In my opinion, there are only two players in this draft class that would unquestionably become the Yanks’ top prospect if the team managed to draft and sign them: Stephen Strasburg & Dustin Ackley. Obviously, there’s basically no chance either player makes it out of the top three picks. There’s about three or four others that would garner consideration for the top spot, but I’d have to think long and hard about it. Not to mention do more research.
The second half of this midseason prospect ranking update comes after the August 15th signing period, when we know who exactly the Yanks have added to the organization.
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac, Getty Images
Wang, Hughes and the Yanks’ final rotation spot
Posted by: | CommentsThrough seven starts and 34.2 innings, Phil Hughes‘ season numbers are nothing special. The Yanks’ promising young right-hander may be 3-2, but he sports a 5.45 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Those numbers, though, do not tell the entire story: Hughes’ numbers are inflated due to one very bad game in Baltimore.
To better assess Hughes’ season, we can omit — but not forget — that Baltimore appearance. When we do, the stats look better. In his six other starts, Hughes is 3-1 in 33 innings and sports a 3.55 ERA to go with a 1.27 WHIP. He’s averaging 8.45 strikeouts per 9 innings, and opponents are hitting .238 with a .775 OPS against him.
While Hughes is still learning how to be economical with his pitches at the Major League level, I was quite surprised when the Yankees opted to send the 22-year-old to the pen in order to get Chien-Ming Wang back into the rotation. After all, Hughes was just one start removed from an eight-inning, no-run appearance against the same Ranger ballclub the Yankees faced yesterday, and he hadn’t pitched poorly enough to earn a demotion. Still, the Yankees wanted Wang back in the starting five, and into the bullpen went Hughes.
As Joe noted in the recap, Wang started out strong and finished poorly. He had his best stuff early in the game with a fastball nearing 94 and a heavy downward tilt on the sinker. As the game went on, though, Wang’s velocity decreased and the ball trailed up. His final line — 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K — was an improvement over his April efforts, but it wasn’t a resounding return to the rotation that the Yankees and their fans had hoped to see.
For now, the Yankees are saying that Wang will make another start. With the way the Yanks have yanked around Hughes and Wang, the team should commit to giving their erstwhile ace another shot, and there are sure signs that Wang should be better. As the velocity chart linked above shows, Wang got tired as the game wore on. Another start should help him build up stamina. However, as Joe noted, Wang is pitching in Fenway next week. His career numbers there are ugly, to say the least.
With this in mind, I’m left right back where I started. I still don’t know why the Yankees bumped Phil Hughes out of the rotation in exchange for a less effective Chien-Ming Wang who wasn’t ready to start because the Yankees reactivated him from his rehab assignment a start or two on the early side. I don’t see why the Yanks didn’t want Phil starting, and I don’t see what, beyond a sample size of five innings, convinced them that Wang was ready to go. The discussion over who, between these two candidates, should be starting is far from over.
In the end, though, the Yankees may have a temporary route away from this debate. Andy Pettitte definitely didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday, and with his control suffering in the first few innings of the Yanks’ loss, it seemed as though his back wasn’t where it needs to be. If the Yankees skip Pettitte to give him some rest, they can use Hughes and Wang in back-to-back games next week, and armed with more data from both pitchers, we can continue to flesh out what should not be a closed book.
Ajax hits first homer of the year
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate (11:33pm): Abe Almonte was placed on the DL.
Austin Romine & Jon Ortiz made the Florida State League All-Star Team. Jesus Montero would have made it if not for the promotion. The Ortiz selection is pretty horrendous, dude had a 6.14 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP in 14.2 IP with Tampa and has since been demoted to Low-A Charleston. Explain that one to me.
Triple-A Scranton
Game 1 (8-6 loss to Syracuse in 8 innings) makeup of yesterday’s rain out
Cody Ransom: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI – and so starts his rehab clock … his DL stint is over 20 days from now
Austin Jackson & Todd Linden: both 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K – Linden tripled
Shelley Duncan: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI
Juan Miranda: 2 for 4, 1 2B, 1 K
John Rodriguez: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – quietly tied for second in the league with 11 homers
Justin Leone: 0 for 4, 1 K
Eric Duncan: 0 for 3, 2 K
Kevin Cash: 1 for 3, 1 PB
The Ghost of Kei Igawa: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 1 HB, 2-3 GB/FB – 56 of 78 pitches were strikes (71.8%)
Jon Albaladejo: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-3 GB/FB – 19 of 31 pitches were strikes (61.3%) … blew the save in the top of the ninth
Edwar Ramirez: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – 14 of 22 pitches were strikes (63.6%)
Read More→
Open Thread: Is Jorge Posada a Hall of Famer?
Posted by: | CommentsYou’ve probably seen it by now, but Rob Neyer and Jonah Keri have been going back and forth about whether or not Yankees’ catcher Jorge Posada is a Hall of Famer. Neyer says nay, Keri says ay. Fortunately, we can some fancy statistics to compare Posada to other Hall of Fame catchers. I prefer using wins above replacement, or WAR. If you aren’t familiar with it, head over to FanGraphs’ glossary, scroll all the way down, and read the seven part series explaining how the stat works. If you’re not in the mood to do that, then just trust me that it measures offense and defense relative to position.
Since FanGraphs’ WAR data only goes back to 2002, we’ll get it from Sean Smith’s wonderful Baseball Projection site, which has WAR data going back to 1955. There are 12 catchers presently in the Hall of Fame, but just three (Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, and Carlton Fisk) played their entire career after 1955, so they’re going to be our basis of comparison by default. We can also add Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza to that mix because they’ll certainly be enshrined in Cooperstown at some point.
The graph below shows each players’ WAR by season, starting with the best. Year One is the best season of the player’s career, Year Two is the second best season, Year Three is the third best, and so on. Plotting the data this way allows us to see how the players compare at their best, at their worst, and everything in between. Enough talk, here’s the graph. Make sure to click for a larger view.
As you can see, Posada’s clearly a notch below the other catchers. His three best seasons (2000, 2003, 2007) aren’t as good as the three best seasons of the five other players, and in general he’s been less productive over the course of his career. This isn’t meant to discredit Posada at all. A catcher who’s worth just about three wins or better in 9 of his 13 big league seasons is an incredibly valuable player, but his career hasn’t met the standards set by other Hall of Fame backstops.
The beauty of WAR is that it allows us to compare the value of players who play different positions since it uses the appropriate adjustments. Thanks to this, we can see how Posada’s career stacks up to the newest Hall of Famer, Mr. Jim Rice.
Well well well, look at that. Rice has Posada beat at his peak, but Posada has the advantage at pretty much every point after that. Rice amassed 42.9 WAR in his 16-year career (0.3 more than Mike Cameron), good enough for 133rd all time. Posada was sitting at 41.6 WAR in his 13 seasons coming into the year, and despite his hamstring injury he’s zoomed past Rice by putting up another 1.5 WAR this year, leaving his current career total at 43.1. With another two seasons left on his contract, Posada will leave Rice in the dust in all likelihood. Now, WAR doesn’t factor in fearedness, but I suspect that wouldn’t change much since it’s a load of crap.
Personally, no, I don’t think Posada’s a Hall of Famer. Hell, I don’t think he’s any better than a borderline candidate to have his number 20 retired. Hall of Very Good? Absolutely. Hall of Fame? Nah.
What do you guys think, is Georgie a HOFer? Talk about that, or whatever else you want here. Just be nice.
2009 Draft Link Roundup
Posted by: | CommentsWe’ve got a small army of links today, so let’s combine them all into one post.
- Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com posted his full first round mock draft. He has the Yanks taking Cal’s Brett Jackson, who Baseball America projected the Yanks to take in their first mock draft back in the middle of May. Mayo notes that the Yanks might be a little timid about going after a big bonus guy after losing out on Gerrit Cole last year.
- Jason Churchill posted his list of the Top 33 Draft Prospects over at his great site Prospect Insider, while John Sickels posted his top 50 at Minor League Ball.
- Writing for the big shots at ESPN, Churchill ran through the draft philosophies of all thirty teams (Insider only). “The Yankees don’t generally lean in one direction or another, but 12 of their first 14 picks the past two years have been college players, and they’ve been pitching-heavy the past four drafts,” he says.
- Jim Callis says that nine players from this draft class are “all but locks” to make BA’s Top 100 Prospects List next year, with Stephen Strasburg the odds on favorite to rank number one overall.
- Jayson Stark says that Scott Boras’ demand of $50M for Strasburg has murdered the history of baseball shows exactly what is wrong with the draft. He says we’re on our way towards having a cap on draft pick bonuses, and spoke to a club official that says it’s time for MLB to allow the trading of picks.
- Bryan Hoch caught up with Yanks’ scouting director Damon Oppenheimer, who stuck by his “we’ve been given a budget by ownership” story. I do believe it he’s been given a budget, but I’m guessing it’s still a mighty big number, $7-8M or so.
- You know the draft is close, because MLB.com’s Draft Tracker is up. Scouting videos for all!
(Make sure you susbcribe to our draft feed!)
Yogi: Tales of a life less ordinary
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For Yankee fans of my generation, Yogi Berra is an icon, a piece of Yankee history reminiscent of the golden age of New York City baseball and, well, a spokesman for AFLAC who manages to confuse even an insurance-savvy duck. While Berra was in a self-imposed exile from George Steinbrenner and the Yankees for 15 years, no Yankee Moment is complete without Yogi there, wearing his trademark number 8 and taking his place behind the plate or throwing out the first pitch.
To others, Yogi is a goofy guy, the man behind some of the more eccentric quotes in sports. “Baseball is 90 percent mental and the other half is physical,” Yogi once said. He was, after all, a catcher and not a mathematician. In fact, Yogi is so identified with his quotes that he once penned a book called I Really Didn’t Say Everything I Said explaining the source of these so-called Yogiisms.
Over the years, though, Yogi and his sayings have taken on a life of their own. Yogi is often viewed as a caricature of himself: he’s this short, funny-looking guy. How could he have been a baseball player, let alone one of the best hitting catchers of all time with 10 World Series rings?
In an effort to rescue Yogi’s image from itself, Allen Barra, respected baseball author and acquaintance of Yogi’s, has spent the last few years working on a biography of the Yankee great. The book — called Yogi Berra: Eternal Yankee — hit stores this March, and in the beginning, Barra states his desire to paint a picture of Yogi unobscured by the Yogi-as-a-joke picture that has emerged in popular culture. He succeeded. The book is a real treat and definitely one of the better baseball biographies I’ve read in a while. Barra delves into Yogi’s life and presents a rich picture of one of the all-time greats.
Adhering to the traditional chronological structure of the genre, Barra’s tome traces Berra’s life from his parents’ arrival in the states to their eventual settling in St. Louis, Yogi’s childhood, adolescence, stint in the army and baseball career. It sweeps wide but comes in close and intimate on Berra, and the real meat of the tale — Yogi’s years in pinstripes during the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s — breathes life into a black-and-white era in the minds of many fans.
Time and again, the story is about Yogi’s beating the odds. He’s a little guy with a lot of power and the ability and desire to hit just about anything. In fact, Yogi struck out just 414 times in his career in over 8300 trips to the plate. Those who first saw Yogi doubted his ability. Those who then saw him play knew that the sky was the limit, and the Yankees enjoyed those golden years once Branch Rickey and the Cardinals passed on Berra in the 1940s over a matter of $500. (Of course, by signing Joe Garagiola, a childhood friend and neighbor of Yogi’s, the Cards didn’t do too badly for themselves.)
When Yogi arrives in New York, a lesser writer would be overcome with legends. How do you fit all the characters and greats, the Casey Stengels, the Mickey Mantles and Phil Rizzutos, the Whitey Fords and Elston Howards into the same book? Barra does so with grace and aplomb. Mantle, that other guy in the room during the 1950s, fits seamlessly into the book while Stengel is a true supporting character, a Yogi supporter through and through. As the Yankees defy the odds to win World Series after World Series, Yogi is there for them all, a stalwart behind the plate who learns future generations everything he knows.
After his playing days, Yogi moved into a series of successful coaching and managerial jobs. He never captured a ring as a manager and yet, as Barra notes, he had a stellar career behind a team. What he didn’t have though was the same loose personality as a manager. Always a straight guy off the field, while playing Yogi was closer to the character with which we associate him. He chatted up umpires and opposing hitters to no end. But as a manager, he was a serious and smart leader who managed to coax a few great runs out of the Yankees and Mets clubs he fronted.
The book ends, of course, with Yogi’s triumphant return to the Bronx . After George Steinbrenner fired him by fiat in 1985, Yogi swore never to come back, and for a decade and a half, he did not. But George, as Barra writes and others have noted, needed Yogi more than Yogi needed George, and the Boss came begging, cap in hand. All is right in the Bronx as Yogi the player, the star, the icon, returns home.
Beyond the final page, Barra detours into analysis. Was Yogi the best catcher ever, he asks. It is a question still debated today and his look provides a fitting coda to the tale. If he wasn’t the best, he sure was near the top, and he has the hardware to prove it.
There isn’t really much more to say about Barra’s book. He brings alive a lost era in New York baseball, and with Father’s Day around the corner, this one would make for an excellent gift for the baseball-loving dad. Or else, just buy it for yourself and read it. It’s well worth the investment.
You can find Allen Barra’s Yogi Berra: Eternal Yankee on sale at Amazon. Using this link to buy the book will toss a few bucks RAB’s way.
Game 54 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsThis one has walk-off win written all over it.
Game 54: Progressing to the mean
Posted by: | CommentsChien-Ming Wang will make his first start since April 18th today, following three progressively better relief outings in which he knocked 18.43 runs off his ERA. Six innings of three run ball today would trim close to another three-and-a-half runs off that mark. Wang says he’s good for about 80 pitches, so six innings seems like a best case scenario today, maaaaaybe seven if the sinker’s really on. If it’s not, well then expect to see plenty of Al Aceves because Phil Hughes is unavailable until tomorrow.
I’m not going to lie, at first I was disappointed in the move to swap Wang & Hughes, but clearly it’s the right thing to do. As good as Hughes has looked of late, a healthy Chien-Ming Wang definitely gives the team a better chance to win. Of course the key is health. If Wanger isn’t right, Hughes will slot right back in to the rotation, but for now he’ll help shore up another hole. Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus wrote a piece for ESPN today explaining why this was the right move for the team, and I recommend you give it a read. It’s stuck behind the Iron Curtain of Insider though.
The weather doesn’t look too pretty, but it sounds like they’ll be able to get this game in. The almighty Derek Jeter saw his 16 game hitting streak come to an end last night, so now’s as good a time as any to give him a little breather. Here’s the lineup:
Damon, LF
Swisher, RF - .346-.457-.577 in his last 9 games
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Cano, 2B
Matsui, DH
Melky, CF – .280-.302-.360 in his last 14 games
Cervelli, C
Pena, SS
And on the mound, Chicken-Wing Wang. (/McCarver’d)
Oh, and AJ Burnett has been suspended six games for throwing at Nelson Cruz the other night. Burnett has filed an appeal and is eligible to pitch until the hearing is complete.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
