Archive for June, 2009
Two outfielders, heading different ways
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s still early enough in Brett Gardner‘s season for last night’s game to make a big difference in his numbers. By going 5 for 6 with a home run and a triple, he raised his average .022 points to .303, his on-base percentage .016 to .374 and his slugging by a whopping .051 to .441.
For Gardner, last night’s game was the crowning moment in his 2009 renaissance. Handed the starting job out of Spring Training, Gardner faltered. Through April 26, he was hitting just .220/.254/.271, and with Melky’s bat showing signs of life, Gardner was out of a regular job. That would be the low point of the season for Brett. While his average eventually dipped to .214, his OPS and stock has been on the rise since then.
Since his benching, Gardner has played his way back into consideration. From May 1 through last night, he has 111 plate appearance, and he is hitting .355/.444/.548 in that span with 22 runs scored and 12 stolen bases. In a season with 650 plate appearances, that would put him on pace to score over 120 runs and steal 70.
While the power is a welcome bonus, that .444 OBP since the start of May is the key for Brett. He’s a fast guy who can, as the age-old baseball cliché says, make things happen on the base paths. He steals; he moves the defense; he scores runs. He can handle the bat well and has a discerning eye. Right now, he’s crediting a more aggressive approach with his recent success. Whatever it is he’s doing sure is working.
On the other side of the center field battle is Melky Cabrera. After a very poor 2008, Cabrera has rebounded with a solid 2009. He’s hitting .287/.351/.446 with 7 home runs and a few key walk-off hits. After losing the job in Spring Training, Melky played his way into the starting role by hitting .342/.422/.534 through May 8. Since then, though, as Gardner has improved, Melky has not. Over 145 plate appearances since May 9, Melky is hitting .256/.310/.395. While not nearly as bad as he was last year, Melky has hit another post-April cold streak.
Right now, the Yankees are in an envious position. They have two viable candidates for center field who can both field their position well. The solution is to go with the hot hand. For now, Brett Gardner should be playing until he’s no longer performing at above-average production. After the game, Joe Girardi acknowledged that Gardner had earned regular playing time. It’s hard to argue with that.
Musings on the Nady/Marte trade
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday was an inauspicious anniversary for Xavier Nady. As the X Man announced that he would need a second Tommy John surgery and would be out for the season, he and the Yanks celebrated the 11-month anniversary of the trade that brought him and Damaso Marte from the Pirates to the Yankees. It was a bittersweet celebration indeed.
Last year, as the Yankees tried to mount a run on the Red Sox and Rays, they found themselves just a few games out of a playoff spot at the end of July. They need to fill a few holes. The bullpen needed a lefty power pitcher, and with Melky Cabrera mired in a season-long slump, the team needed an outfielder. Unwilling to pay or just not interested in the very steep price for Jason Bay, Brian Cashman killed two birds with one stone as he sent Jose Tabata, Dan McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens to Pittsburgh for Marte and Nady.
With Nady on the shelf now until he hits free agency and Marte MIA with an ambiguous shoulder injury, the word “bust” has floated around the Yankees. Was this trade — four young guys for two now-injured players — a bust? It’s easy to say yes, but I’m not so sure.
First, we have to consider how the two players the Yankees landed did at the time. That’s really what assessing this trade is about. If they performed to expectations, if they did the job, and if the Yankees didn’t give up all that much at the time, it isn’t a bust. Anything after that would be the proverbial icing on the cake.
Last year, Nady came over and impressed. A late September swoon left his triple slash line at .268/.320/.474, but as the team tride to amount an August attack, Nady hit .308/.351/.523 with 19 RBI. Marte had an ugly 5.40 ERA, inflated due to a 1.1-inning, five-earned run appearance in Texas. Without that appearance, he was a reliable reliever for the Yanks down the stretch.
This year, of course, the story has been anything but that success. Nady hurt himself early on, and Marte has a 15.00 ERA to go with a shoulder problem. While their 2008 numbers were good, the 2009 totals haven’t earned either much praise.
On the other side of the deal were the four players the Yanks gave up. Karstens and Ohlendorf have stuck around in Pittsburgh this year. That’s more a testament to the Pirates’ place at the bottom of the NL than anything else. Karstens is 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA. He has just 26 strike outs in 65.2 innings, a 1:1 K:BB ratio and a 1.45 WHIP. Ohlendorf is 6-6 with a 4.75 ERA. His K/9 IP is hovering around 4.5. These numbers look halfway decent on the Pirates, but in the AL they would amount to nothing.
While Ohlendorf and Karstens are what they are, the deal rests with the two players not in the Majors. Dan McCutchen is 26 at AAA with mediocre numbers (5-5, 4.34 ERA, 60 K in 74.2 IP). At best, he’ll be a swing man who makes a few spot starts for the Pirates. And then there is Tabata. After missing much of the season with an injury, Tabata has come on strong of late. He’s hitting .270/.354/.330 on the season. He is 11 for his last 34 but with no extra-base hits over that time.
To judge a deal, we have to look at it when it was made, and at that point, the deal was not a bust. It was nearly a steal. If Tabata develops the power and ability to be what people think he can be, the deal probably ends up being a wash. Yet, success has eluded Tabata, and his development has seemingly stalled out. It is disappointing to see Marte and Nady on the shelf, but that doesn’t make the deal a bust. If I were to go back in time and were to be unaware of what the future holds for Nady and Marte, I’d do it again. Would you?
Lots and lots and lots of rain
Posted by: | CommentsChad Jennings says that both George Kontos & JB Cox have been placed on the DL. He also mentions that Chris Garcia is done for the year after having elbow surgery. In six years with the organization, Garcia’s thrown just 290.2 innings over 67 appearances (55 starts).
Triple-A Scranton (5-1 win over Syracuse)
Kevin Russo: 2 for 5, 1 R, 1 3B, 1 K – still hitting a cool .350
Austin Jackson: 0 for 5, 2 K – www.sadtrombone.com
Colin Curtis, Justin Leone & Chris Stewart: all 1 for 4 – Curtis K’ed … Stewart doubled, drove in a run & scored the plate
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB
Juan Miranda: 0 for 3, 1 BB, 1 E (fielding)
John Rodriguez: 0 for 4, 1 K
Eric Duncan: 3 for 4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 K - had been 7 for his last 57 (.123)
Romulo Sanchez: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 4-2 GB/FB – 31 of 52 pitches were strikes (59.6%) … can’t complain about that spot start
Paul Bush: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2-4 GB/FB – 30 of 43 pitches were strikes (69.8%)
Edwar Ramirez: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0-2 GB/FB – 26 of 38 pitches were strikes (68.4%)
Jon Albaladejo: 1.1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 1-2 GB/FB – 7 of 8 pitches were strikes … just eight pitches to get four outs, including a K? sign me up
Game 73: Citi, the other New York park
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yanks make their first and only trip to Citi Field this weekend. Hopefully the Yanks will be as well-represented at Citi as the Mets were at The Stadium.
CC Sabathia left his previous start after 1.1 innings with biceps tendonitis, but after working out this week was deemed fit to pitch. That’s a relief for the Yanks, who want nothing more than to add a third game to their two-game rush. CC has given the Yanks the best chance to win all year, and tonight is made all the better because they’re facing the best of what the Mets will throw in Mike Pelfrey.
After tossing 200 innings to a 3.72 ERA last season, Pelfrey has been a bit of a disappointment this year, adding a full run to his ERA over his first 76 innings. Looking at his peripherals, it’s pretty obvious why. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up, leaving his K/BB ratio at a paltry 1.26:1. The saving grace is that he’s continued allowing home runs at a very slow pace, which is in large part why his FIP is 4.38.
The Rays hit Pelfrey well in his last outing, smacking eight base hits for four runs over five innings. He fared a bit better in his previous start at Camden Yards, where he held the Orioles to two runs over 5.2 innings. He also started against the Red Sox back in May, and that was perhaps his best outing of the year, a seven-inning, two-run affair in which he struck out six and walked just one.
As you might have heard, the Mets lineup at this point is nothing to write home about. They’re missing a number of key players, including Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes. When you go from those guys to Nick Evans, Jeremy Reed, and Alex Cora, you know you’re going to be in a bit of trouble.
On a final note before the lineups, CC Sabathia mentioned his 120-pitch outings from this year as a possible cause of his biceps tendonitis. I’d expect Girardi to pull him somewhere around 110 maximum. The bullpen picked up 5.1 innings for Andy Pettitte last night, so it might seem a bit taxed. That might not be the case, though, as the Yanks have a fresh Brian Bruney and Phil Hughes ready to take the bridge to Mo, who for his part tossed only six pitches in his one-out save.
Lineup:
Gardner, CF
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Cano, 2B
Melky, RF
Cervelli, C
Pena, SS
Sabathia, SP
Jeter’s out with an illness. There’s basically four, maybe five pitchers in the lineup tonight. Woo hoo.
Quick Hits: Nady, A-Rod, Jeter, Andy Phillips
Posted by: | CommentsA few quick notes a few hours before the Yanks and Mets square off in an overhyped Subway Series. It’s the last weekend of Interleague play.
- Joe Girardi appeared on the FAN this afternoon to chat about the state of the Yankees. While he didn’t come out and flat-out state that Xavier Nady will not be returning this year, the Yankees are not counting on any further contributions from the X Man. Nady is off to see Dr. Lewis Yocum in California, and an announcement concerning surgery will come soon after that. Nady should be ready for Spring Training, no matter where the free agent-to-be lands this winter. Jose Tabata, by the way, is hitting .258/.333/.320 at AA. Still young for his level, Tabata has stalled out a bit in his development.
- Also on the FAN, Girardi said that the team will not carry three catchers when Jose Molina is ready to return. Molina’s return isn’t yet on the horizon; he is still building up strength in his legs. When he gets back, Francisco Cervelli will return to AAA for regular playing time.
- Just one week after the Yanks benched A-Rod due to fatigue in his surgically-repaired hip and promised to give him regular rest, the team appears to be backing away from that plan. A-Rod has started four straight games, and the Yankees won’t rest him against the Mets. “It’s our home city, and I think our guys enjoy the Subway Series,” Girardi said yesterday. “Alex feels good, feels like he’s got a lot of energy in his legs. He feels good, so we’ll let him keep going.” Fack Youk takes the team to task for straying from the plan less than a week into it, and without knowing more details about this decision, I’m inclined to agree with the critique.
- Derek can now run for President. Today is Cap’n Jeter’s 35th birthday. It seems as though he made his Major League debut just yesterday when in fact it was fourteen years ago on May 29, 1995. The Yankees were in Seattle, and Jeter went 0 for 5 that day. Scott Bankhead drew the loss after allowing a lead-off home run to Rich Amaral in the bottom of the 12th inning.
- Finally, news on an old friend: Former Yankee farmhand Andy Phillips has signed to play in Japan. Phillips, who has bounced around the league since leaving the Bronx, will earn $400,000 to play for the Hiroshima Carp.
Breaking down the Yanks with runners in scoring position
Posted by: | CommentsA topic which seemingly never fades from our collective conscience is the Yankees hitting with runners in scoring position. It’s an aspect of the game which seemed to plague the team throughout 2008, and we’ve seen them falter in those situations in 2009. How bad is it really, though?
Answer: not as bad as some make it out to be. The explanation for this is simple: certain memories stick in our heads, and if not checked with an objective account of what happened can define the situation for us. When we see the Yankees fail with runners in scoring position, we tend to harp on their constant failure, because those failures are the mind’s most prominent memories. That doesn’t mean that it is so.
The Yankees have put themselves in position to score plenty of runs. Not only do they lead the league in long balls, but they have the seventh most plate appearances with runners in scoring position. For the most part they’ve succeeded, as they have scored the second most runs in baseball, 12 ahead of third place Boston, but 22 behind first place Tampa.
(Yikes! 1-2-3 are all in the AL East. Toronto is 5th.)
In terms of converting on those chances with runners in scoring position, though, the Yankees rank 15th, or right in the middle of the league, with a .262 batting average. So while the Yankees aren’t horrible with runners in scoring position, they could certainly stand to improve a bit.
Last night, in a discussion of Nick Swisher with runners in scoring position, I chimed in with a simple model for the level of desired outcomes when hitting with RISP. I doubt there will be much arguing with the following:
Hit > Walk > Out
In terms of outs the Yankees are 7th in the league, with a .366 OBP. It would appear, then, that the Yankees are good at not making outs with RISP, which is a good thing. It would be better if they could raise that average, since hits drive in the ducks, not walks. But in terms of not making outs, the worst of all outcomes, the Yankees are better than three quarters of the league.
Where the Yankees are also proficient with RISP is RBI. They rank seventh in the league in RBI with RISP. In some ways, though, that’s not fair. The Yanks come to the plate with runners in scoring position more often than three quarters of the league, so it’s expected that they should drive in more runs, in pure counting terms. In terms of RBI per plate appearance, the Yankees rank 13th in the league.
So have the Yankees driven in runs with men in scoring position primarily because they’ve given themselves more opportunities than most of the league? In part, yes. Another part is that when they do get hits with RISP, they’re hard hits. While the Yanks are 15th in batting average, they’re sixth in slugging percentage. This is notable because slugging percentage includes singles. Iso-P, which removes singles from the equation, puts the Yanks third in the league.
The power angle is a bit interesting. The Yankees rank sixth in MLB with a .271 team batting average — which I suppose makes the number with RISP a bit more frustrating — but rank 11th with a .427 SLG. That puts them at 14th in the league in Iso-P. So most of their power comes with runners in scoring position, it would seem.
It’s easy to conclude, based on the numbers, that the Yanks need to start dropping some more singles with RISP. While that would be nice, it’s not exactly necessary. The Tampa Bay Rays, during their 97-win 2008 campaign, finished 28th in the league in average with RISP, last in the American League. Hitting with RISP counts, and counts for a lot. But in the end, it comes down to pitching, pitching, pitching. Funny how an article about numbers with RISP concludes that way, huh?
‘Andy Pettitte is a starting pitchah’
Posted by: | CommentsSay what you will about Mike Francesa’s opinion, but the man does his job. As the midday host on the city’s most popular sports talk radio station, he is supposed to drive listeners to his show and keep people talking. By taking controversial stands and harping on them to no end, he succeeds and what we do here at River Ave. Blues is, in a way, a natural step in the evolution of sports talk radio.
Today, the man talking about the news is the news. In a piece on MLB.com, Bryan Hoch profiled Francesa and the Great Joba Debate. There’s no needs to rehash any of the debate right now. We know it by heart, and we know how heated the discussion can be. “Whenever the topic is brought up, there is always a spirited debate on both sides, and it really can come up out of nowhere,” Francesa says. “It’s what you would call a hot-button issue. Everybody seems to have an opinion, and there are a lot of people who feel the way I do.”
Hoch didn’t, at least in print, push Francesa on that quote. The debate never really comes up “out of nowhere.” It comes up out of a quest for listeners. Shouting “Andy Pettitte is a starting pitchah!” over a caller trying to make a valid point does wonders for the ratings.
(As an aside, Joba himself seems to recognize the absurdity of this whole charade. He said to Hoch: “I guess it’s a good conversation piece over lunch, and it gives people something to talk about. I could win 20 games and people are still going to think I could save 50. No matter what happens, I just think it’s going to be debated.”)
While the debate outside of the Yankee organization continues to rage, the team is committed to keeping Joba as a starter. Meanwhile, this whole thing coupled with a Tweet by Mike a few hours ago got me thinking about Andy Pettitte and the state of the Yankees’ starting pitching.
After April, Pettitte was 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA. While I had my reservations about re-signing Pettitte this year, he was on his way toward proving his doubters wrong. Since then, though, it’s been a downward spiral for Pettitte, culminating in last night’s appearance. Staked to a seven-run lead, he couldn’t get out of the fourth.
Let’s see then how the four Yankee starters who haven’t missed a turn in the rotation since the start of May have done since then.
| Since May 1 | Starts | IP | K/BB | K/9 IP | ERA | WHIP | BA | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pettitte | 11 | 63.0 | 1.55 | 6.43 | 5.00 | 1.71 | .304 | .849 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 10 | 52.2 | 2.17 | 8.89 | 4.10 | 1.37 | .245 | .723 |
| A.J. Burnett | 9 | 55.1 | 1.84 | 9.27 | 3.58 | 1.50 | .249 | .751 |
| CC Sabathia | 10 | 69.2 | 3.00 | 6.59 | 3.23 | 1.02 | .212 | .586 |
The funny thing about this table is its lack of a win column. It’s easy to conflate pitchers’ win totals with their ability to pitch effectively, and Pettitte is a prime example of that phenomenon. The Yankees are 8-3 in his 11 starts, and he and CC lead the team with five W’s since May 1. That win total is, though, largely a function of run support for Pettitte. While he has given up 40 runs, the Yanks have scored 64.
At some point, the question will become what to do with Pettitte. He hasn’t pitched terribly, but he hasn’t pitched terribly well either. Because the Yankees have a question mark in Chien-Ming Wang and an innings limit for Joba, Phil Hughes will get his starts but so will Pettitte. I have a feeling though that, despite his Francesa-inspired “starting pitchah” moniker, what you see is what you get from Pettitte. He won’t be as good as he was in April, and he won’t be as bad as he was last night. As long as the Yanks keep scoring those runs for him, the team can get by.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
