Archive for June, 2009
RAB Live Chat
Posted by: | Comments
Scoring the mock drafts
Posted by: | CommentsWe always hear that trying to predict the Major League Baseball draft is nothing more than guesswork, especially anytime before June 1st. However, once you get down to draft day, trying to project picks isn’t a totally futile exercise since we then know which teams are onto which players. Plus there’s all that stuff about knowing who’s healthy, who has performed well, who has slumped and so on.
I figured I’d take a look at the final mock drafts put out there by some of the most notable analysts on draft day to see who did the best job of predicting the picks. Here are the results, with the overall pick number is in parenthesis:
Jim Callis, Baseball America [link and link]
Total Correct Picks: 10
Correct Picks: Stephen Strasburg (1), Dustin Ackley (2), Donovan Tate (3), Tony Sanchez (4), Drew Storen (10), Chad James (18) Jiovanni Mier (21), Slade Heathcott (29), Brett Jackson (31), Tim Wheeler (32)
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus [link]
Total Correct Picks: 6
Correct Picks: Strasburg (1), Ackley (2), Tate (3), Zack Wheeler (6), Bobby Borchering (16), Heathcott (29)
Keith Law, ESPN [link]
Total Correct Picks: 12
Correct Picks: Strasburg (1), Ackley (2), Tate (3), Tony Sanchez (4), Jacob Turner (9), Borchering (16), James (18), Chad Jenkins (20), Mier (21), Mike Trout (25), Heathcott (29), Wheeler (32)
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com [link]
Total Correct Picks: 8
Correct Picks: Strasburg (1), Ackley (2), Tate (3), Tony Sanchez (4), Mike Minor (7), Storen (10), Grant Green (13), James (18)
Even though Callis didn’t have the Pirates taking Tony Sanchez in his original post, he did update his mock four hours before the draft on BA’s Draft Blog to reflect the move, so I was kind and gave him credit for that. Obviously, Strasburg was a gimme at numbero uno, as was Sanchez at four considering his predraft deal. Florida grabbing Oklahoma prep righty Chad James 18th overall was expected as well, because scouting director Stan Meeks is from Oklahoma, as is staff ace and budding megastar Josh Johnson. James’ talent warranted being drafted at that spot, and all of the other stars aligned perfectly.
As you can see, KLaw had the most correct picks with twelve. However, correctly predicting the most picks doesn’t automatically mean someone had the best mock draft, because correctly calling later picks is way tougher than calling early round picks. So in order to weigh the later right picks better, I assigned a point value to each slot and just tallied up the points everyone got. The scoring system wasn’t anything fancy, one point for the first overall pick, two points for the second, three points for the third, and so on. Arbitrary? Yes. Better than nothing? Also yes. With a 32 picks in the first round, the maximum number of points is 528.
So tallying them all up, here’s what we got:
- KLaw – 180 pts
- Callis – 151 pts
- Mayo – 58 pts
- Goldstein – 57 pts
Heh, so it looks like we know who has the most reliable sources, no? Or at least who lucked out with the most guesses, anyway. KLaw walks away with wins in both the Total Correct Pick and Point Tally categories, therefore we shall crown him the Master of the Mock Draft. Something tells me he’d appreciate that.
Olney’s premature obituary for A-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday, Buster Olney wrote a premature obituary of sorts for A-Rod. Noting that A-Rod‘s numbers are way down this year, Olney speculated that the post-steroid-confession, post-surgery A-Rod isn’t anything close to the late-20′s A-Rod of five or six years ago.
With a premise like that, can you guess where this is going? Olney alleges that A-Rod is no longer as marketable as he once was. But first he drops this bombshell with the help of a few anonymous scouts:
The question is this: Is Rodriguez, a month from his 34th birthday, much less of a player because he presumably no longer takes performance-enhancing drugs?
It’s a question that can never be answered, but it’s a question that will continue to be asked, probably more within the Yankees organization than anywhere else. And really, if you want, just consider the question in terms of money.
The Yankees are still on the hook for about $250 million in the next eight-plus seasons. The player who will receive that money can never give them quite what they paid for, in a sense, because A-Rod, as a marketing tool, is damaged forever. They would settle for paying him just to hit well, field effectively and run the bases as well as he did for 15 years — doing all the things on the field they needed him to do when they signed him to the highest salary in the game.
The quotes are even better. “He looks old. He’s a first baseman. How many years does he have left on the contract?” one said. “He looks like a record playing at a slower speed,” said another.
For Olney, this is all about steroids. He writes, “Now he is the best player to admit past steroid use, and that has made him something of a lab rat. His performance will be dissected as talent evaluators continue to ask the question that can’t be fully answered.”
It’s a hackneyed piece that devolves into some steroid talk but it’s based on a solid premise: Can the Yankees get their value out of A-Rod? Now, from an on-field perspective, the answer is probably yes. Since resting for a day and a half over the weekend following six straight weeks of baseball after a major surgery, the A-Rod of old has emerged. He’s 5 for his last 16 with 8 RBIs and 4 walks. He says his legs feel stronger, and the Yankees are stressing health and rest as they approach A-Rod’s hip.
In reality, A-Rod’s slump was just that. He had a bad stretch brought about by fatigue in his hip. Yet, despite that reality, despite the surgery, we’re going to get eight years of badly written columns about A-Rod’s decline, A-Rod’s being a shell of his former self, A-Rod’s no longer steroid-filled physique. Forget the natural decline brought about by age. Forget talent. That’s the baseball world in which we live. Olney, though, should know better.
Cashman: Possible worst-case scenario for Nady
Posted by: | CommentsIn Mike’s DotF tonight, he noted that Xavier Nady played just five innings at AAA. According to Brian Cashman, that wasn’t a planned short stint. The Yanks’ GM has said that Nady felt something in his right elbow following his second throw of the night and removed himself from the game. This may be a worst-case scenario for Nady. If this was not a precautionary move by Nady, it could mean the season-ending surgery Nady had hoped to avoid. We’ll follow up with this as soon as we know more.
DeLeon continues torrid start
Posted by: | CommentsMake sure you scroll down for tonight’s game thread.
Triple-A Scranton (6-3 loss to Syracuse)
Kevin Russo & Colin Curtis: 2 for 4, 1 K - Russo doubled, was caught stealing & missed a catch at second for an error … Curtis homered, drove in three & K’ed
Austin Jackson & Juan Miranda: both 1 for 4 – Jackson doubled (& didn’t K!) … Miranda scored a run
Xavier Nady: 0 for 2, 1 K – played five innings in RF…For more on Nady’s short rehab appearance tonight, see Ben’s post.
John Rodriguez: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Justin Leone: 0 for 3, 1 BB, 3 K
Eric Duncan & Kevin Cash: both 0 for 4 – E-Dunc K’ed once, Cash four freakin’ times
George Kontos: 3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 5-3 GB/FB - 33 of 62 pitches were strikes (53.2%) … first start in 13 games because of all the rain outs, so chalk this one up to rust
Zach Kroenke: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 2-2 GB/FB – 27 of 48 pitches were strikes (56.3%)
Anthony Claggett: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1-0 GB/FB - 14 of 22 pitches were strikes (63.6%)
Mark Melancon: 1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HB, 1 WP, 1-2 GB/FB – 15 of 24 pitches were strikes (62.5%) … heh, that’s on odd line … he hit the first batter, got the second guy to fly out, the runner moved to second on Russo’s error, moved to second on a ground out, then scored on a wild pitch
Game 72 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsMost unclutch athlete in the history of sports.
Game 72 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsThey needed a game like this in the worst way.
Game 72: Off The Schnide
Posted by: | CommentsI don’t know about you guys, but when Alex Rodriguez lined that single into center to drive in two runs in the sixth yesterday, it felt like a tremendous weight came off my shoulders as I exhaled with relief. Cervelli’s homer was nice, don’t get me wrong, but there was much more on the line for Alex in that inning. Does that make sense? Eh, whatever. Anway, if that’s what it felt like for me, I can only imagine what it felt like for A-Rod and the rest of team.
Was Joe Girardi’s ejection and the ensuing rally enough to spark the team out of it’s offensive malaise? Everyone was all smiles when Mariano Rivera lined out to end the ninth, so maybe the team is feeling good about themselves and are ready to go on a little run. We can only hope.
Here’s the starting nine. Robbie Cano was originally slated to play and bat fifth as usual, but there was a change and now Ransom’s at second. Maybe Cody had a closed door meeting with Girardi and Cash and talked his way into the lineup? (I keed, I keed)
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Posada, C
Swisher, RF
Gardner, CF – ride the hot hand baby
Ransom, 2B
Andy Pettitte, SP
Self-Promotion: Ben will be appearing on Pro Baseball Central tonight around 9:30 to talk about the Yanks and this weekend’s series against the Amazin’s. Click the link to listen in.
Scouting Austin Romine & DJ Mitchell
Posted by: | CommentsAdam Guttridge took a trip down to Tampa for THT, taking a look at two of the Yankees’ better prospects: Austin Romine & DJ Mitchell. Guttridge notes that Romine is “well-composed at the plate” but a “mixed picture” on defense. Mitchell was sitting high-80′s with the sinker, had good control of his slider, and flashed a promising changeup. Check it out, it’s a nice quick read. (h/t dan)


