He hasn’t lost velocity simply because he’s pitching differently as a starter. He would never have become “JOBA!” if he were throwing 92-93 MPH when he was starting in the minors. He became “JOBA!” because he was sitting 95-97 MPH as a starter.

Something else is wrong.

The decreased velocity is obviously at the heart of the problem. Not just because it diminshes the effect of his fastball, but also because of its impact on his slider. When he was getting up there at 97-98 (both in the bullpen AND as a starter), hitters had to gear up earlier and couldn’t wait as long to pick up his slider. Now that they can foul off his 92 MPH fastball with an emergency hack if they wait a little longer, they are picking up his slider and not swinging at it. It is quite amazing to watch hitters just look at his slider and spit on it, given how many terrible swings that pitch used to induce.

If Joba gets his velocity back, his slider will again be incredibly effective, allowing him to restake his claim as one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Until then, he frankly will be a good-ish pitcher at best. That’s nothing to sneeze at. But he won’t be the dominant pitcher we envisioned him as. And that’ll be true whether he remains a starter or goes back to the bullpen.

’08 Joba is averaging 5.1 IP/S (take away the game he got hurt and its 5.2 IP/S)

Clayton Kershaw is averaging just over 5.1 IP/S
Rick Porcello is averaging just over 5.1 IP/S also

Has to be…maybe this is a stupid thing to say, but your velocity can’t change unless the mechanics do. The mechanics change if an injury limits your range of motion, or limits the explosiveness of your arm movement or whatever. So naturally it’s mechanics, it’s just whether it’s intentional, unintentional, or a combination.

Hearing Girardi say “attacking the zone” sorta puzzles me. I don’t think he nibbles. I think he just doesn’t have great control. Even if you have great velocity, in the majors you still have to locate the pitches. Tom Seaver said a good pitch has to have 2 of 3 of the following: velocity, location, and movement. Joba clearly can’t locate precisely enough with his level of velocity. He’s probably trying to stay down in the zone, or work one half of the plate depending on the hitter, but he either misses over the center of the plate, or misses off the plate.

Watching yesterday, what I noticed was he doesn’t get many swings and misses now. Pitch count was up because of lots of foul balls. Swings and misses can come via lots of velocity, which he has lost. But they also come from the hitter being on his heels and not knowing what’s coming. Aceves had lots of swing/miss yesterday, and he was sitting at 91 tops. But he threw everything for strikes, so the hitters have to get defensive and swing at his junk.

To me, the question is how much longer do we wait on him as a starter. One way or another, he has to learn how to get through a lineup 3 times in a game. I say he finishes the season as a starter, and definitely begins next year as a starter. But if he can’t get into the 6th inning relatively consistently next season, he shouldn’t be a starting pitcher. I’m not sure at what point next year you give up on him….maybe you give him the whole year. But even a back end starter…doesn’t matter. Whether it’s due to velocity, command, whatever, doesn’t matter: the bottom line is if he can’t make it deep enough into games, he needs to pitch in relief.