Looking at the Yankees in June

July 2nd Signing Period Primer
Eastern League All-Stars announced

In many regards, the Yankees had a frustrating month of June. They went 15-11, their second-best monthly total of the season, but with tough losses against the Nationals and Marlins as well as another sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, June seemed almost to be a disappointment. As we turn the calendar over to July and the dog days of summer, let’s see how the Yanks performed last month.

We start on the mound. For the month, the Yanks’ hurlers were outstanding. The pitchers sported a combine ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.228. Both figures are season lows. The staff also supported a K/9 IP of 8.5 and K/BB ratio of 2.47. The bullpen, an Achilles’ Heel early on, sported a 2.46 ERA. The breakdown is as follows:

[TABLE=24]

What really jumps out at me are the walks. After issuing 112 free passes in 254.1 May innings — or nearly 4 per 9 IP — the staff held the walks to 3.44 per 9 IP. The strike outs go up, the walks go down, and everyone is happy.

On an individual level, the Phil’s and Al Aceves led the charge from the bullpen. The three of them combined for 39.1 innings, 40 strike outs and just five earned runs. Mariano nailed down nine saves, and outside of one bad start in Boston, A.J. Burnett dominated June.

How then did the Yankees managed to finish just four games over .500 for the month? The offense wasn’t nearly as good as the pitching. For June, the Yanks hit just .253/.354/.433, and their OPS was nearly .060 lower than it was in May. They may have allowed just 102 runs in June, but they scored only 140. They also ran into some bad luck as their Pythagorean expectation pegged them for 17 wins this month.

[TABLE=25]

The main cause of this offensive malaise were a series of slumps. A-Rod, Hideki, Jorge, Robbie and Melky all had sub-par months, and A-Rod with a .190 BABIP really struggled until the final week.

But now June is over, and July is upon us. The Yankees have won six in a row and a primed for a run at first place. If the pitching can replicate its June success and the bats resembled the last six June games instead of the first 20, this team should be in the driver’s seat until the All Star Break and beyond.

July 2nd Signing Period Primer
Eastern League All-Stars announced
  • jsbrendog

    i predicted first place by the end of the road trip…so i was wrong…but before the road trip was over i said the yankees wll be in 1st place by the all star break and I am sticking to it.

    they will be.

    • Billy

      yeah red chox are slippin and we’re gettin hot

      • Bo

        We’ve beat the Triple A Mets 3 games and had to fight to beat the 4A Braves. Let’s hold off a little there.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        • R.I.P. Michael Jackson

          mariners aint that bad. also few hotstreaks soley consist of wins against good teams. were facin toronto soon, and i think we sweep if halladay aint pitchin

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          June, series by series (with teams winning percentage):

          Beat the Rangers 2-1 (.539)
          Beat the Rays 2-1 (.557)
          Lost to the Sox 0-3 (.610)
          Beat the Mets 2-1 (.487)
          Lost to the Nats 1-2 (.293)
          Lost to the Marlins 1-2 (.506)
          Beat the Braves 2-1 (.474)
          Beat the Mets 3-0 (.487)

          We had one bad series loss to a bad team in the Nationals. We lost series to the Sox and Marlins, which is understandable, they’re good teams. We had series wins against the Braves and Mets (twice), two decent teams that are shorthanded. And we beat two good teams in the Rangers and Rays.

          • Mattingly’s Love Child

            I hate to grant Bo anything, but those series wins against the Rangers and Rays were at the beginning of the month. For a while there the Yanks were playing pretty crappy. BUT you have to expect good teams to beat bad teams. Ending the month beating the Braves and the Mets is a good thing. It is a step in the right direction. If the Yanks had just come off losing 2 series to the Braves and Mets, we’d all feel a hell of a lot less confident going forward against the schedule here in early July.

            After making a short story long, the Yankees seem to be back on track after a minor detour in the middle of the month.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              I’m just pointing out that all our June games weren’t against the last place Nationals and a depleted Mets lineup. We did play some good, title-caliber teams in there.

              • Mattingly’s Love Child

                Fo sho

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  Yeah, she was a ho…

    • Mattingly’s Love Child

      If not, will you assassinate someone like radnom promised?

      Hehehe

      • radnom

        Who deserves to be assassinated if this comes to pass?

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          Not sure. jsbrendog himself perhaps?

          jsb is pretty sure of his prediction there, coming very short of guaranteeing it…

          • radnom

            Agreed. But only if he offs himself practicing the fine art of seppuku.

            • jsbrendog

              guys….i’m right here….

  • Billy

    the series loss to the nationals would have been frustrating enough

  • Manimal

    Oh the Irony… Joba threw the most innings of all the starters last month(he also had one more start but still…)

    • VO

      Take out that start from yesterday and him and CC are practically tied.

    • http://phabfour.blogspot.com/ Double-J

      But he’s not a starting pitchaaaah!

  • MattG

    .354 as a team is pretty darn good (and outside of Brett and Ramiro, there isn’t a OBP on that list that shouldn’t be at least repeated), and .433 slugging is better than most–the issue in June must’ve been BA w/RiSP, or in other words, plain bad luck.

    I would like to know what they did with RiSP in June, and how many runs .354/.433 should’ve yielded over a month of games.

    • Bo

      Hitting in the clutch is now luck?

      Stat geeks smile while real world common sense people roll their eyes.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      • Mattingly’s Love Child

        Bo, really?

        Hitting in the clutch has not be a definable skill. Haven’t we all been over this a million times already? Some years some hitters hit in the clutch, some years they don’t.

        If it is a skill, tell me someone who has ALWAYS hit in the clutch….

        • Little Bill

          I’ll tell you someone who ALWAYS hits in the clutch- Derek Jeter and the entire Boston Red Sox lineup. Jeter never fails. Neither do the Sox, they most certainly didn’t last night in the 9th inning. Clutch hitting has nothing to do with luck or variance. Cano can hit the ball hard with RISP and he sucks. Posada can get a bloop single to shallow center and he’s Mr. Clutch. It’s all skill and some people just don’t have it.

          • MattG

            Yeah! Like Luis Gonzalez! He was so clutch on 11-04-01!

        • JP

          It’s not a definable skill, but that doesn’t prove that it is not a skill. Maybe there is some degree of “clutch” skill, but it is swallowed up in the many variances of baseball–the pitchers you face, how successfully they pitch to you (their “clutchness”), the bounce of the ball. Fangraphs has a “clutch” stat, which is interesting. I researched several players on it last week. Two players I remember from that search who were pretty consistently “clutch” in their careers were Tony Gwynn and Paul O’Neill.

      • MattG

        Why is it that hitting in the clutch is common sense, but pitching in the clutch is never mentioned? Maybe the pitcher is more clutch than the hitter?

        Oh, the pitcher has no control over the situation? Like golf?

  • Ivan

    The ended the month on a good note.

    I think their poise for a huge july and will take over first place sooner or later. To me, the sox just seem overrated more and more in my opinion albeit a very good team but overrated nevertheless.

    • Mike HC

      I agree. They are a good team, but I’m not really scared of them and they are certainly beatable. If the Yanks play up to their talent level, I believe they are better than the Sox this year.

  • R.I.P. Michael Jackson

    i think we’re gonna have a great july that either ties us or gets us ahead of the sawx

  • Bo

    Keep in mind we play much better teams in July so it’ll be a better barometer of success. Plus they should be able to go out and add a bullpen arm. Maybe two since they could use another lefty to pair with Coke.

    • jsbrendog

      see damaso marte

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        I wouldn’t mind seeing a little Wilkins De La Rosa, either.

        • Ivan

          Hey if he’s ready why not. I doubt he’ll be this advance enough to zoom to the bigs and be a major contributer that quickly.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            I’m just saying, WLDR and Dunn are both lefties and both already on the 40 man.

            They’re both 24 (Feb. 85 for WLDR, May 85 for Dunn). That’s old enough to merit a fast-track callup. As long as they keep pitching well, they should both be up here at least for when rosters expand in September. If either of them pitches really well, and if Marte has a setback of any kind, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to bring one of them up before September to get playoff eligibility.

            • Ivan

              De La Rosa I think was a OFer converted into a pitcher. So he just started to learned how to be a professional pitcher which makes it quite impressive that he’s in AA at the moment. Nevertheless, I just doubt he would advance that quickly and be a major contributer at the big league level. It could happen but it’s slimmer than the olsen twins.

  • Salty Buggah

    Here’s hoping someone (especially Alex) has a Pujols type month.

    Pujols’ July: 14 HRs, 14 K’s, 7 singles, 35 RBI’s, 1.283 OPS.

    Damn! a 1:1 HR to K ratio!!!!!

    • Bo

      How about if 3 guys combine for that??

      • Salty Buggah

        That would be utterly horrible! 3 guys for a 1.283 OPS = BAD!!!

        But if you meant 3 guys each get that, oh boy, look out world.

    • Salty Buggah

      *his June

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Small request: Could the charts be sorted by innings pitched and plate appearances, rather than by ERA and by… by I don’t know what the hell the hitting chart is sorted by.

    Oh, and can you not shorten .400 to .4?

    kthxbai

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

      Click on any of the chart headings to sort it however you would like to.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        No, clicking on the tabs doesn’t sort the chart, it just inverts the chart.

        That does me no good.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

          Now it should work. I had to fix a minor coding error.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Nevermind, now I got it.

    • Thomas

      You can click on the tabs to sort.

  • A.D.

    The main frustration of June was not taking care of the Nats & Marlins, as they should have.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      FWIW, the Nationals winning percentage, team ERA, and team OPS allowed by month:

      April – .238 (5-16), 5.15, .840
      May – .286 (8-20), 6.07, .835
      June – .346 (9-17), 4.30, .726

      They’re getting better.

      • JP

        Isn’t there a name for the sort of confounding in your statement, here? Meaning, maybe they didn’t get better in June, but look better because they met up with a Yankee team which was in a horrible slump at the time. (Yeah, I realize it was just one series…just sayin’ there’s a component of circular reasoning in that kind of analysis).

        • jsbrendog

          3 games in june wouldnt skew the numbers that much other than win/losses.

          what you saw in june was lannan and zimmermann all pich well (which all 3 are capable of doing as all 3 have potential to be quite good)

          also, their offense is also very good.

          last 28 days:

          lannan 3-0 with a 2.19 era 1.054 WHIP

          zimmermann 1-1 with 1.90 era .972 WHIP

          that’s 4 wins out of 9 and def bringing down the staff era.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Oh, and the Marlins only had one bad month, May. In April and June, they’re a combined 31-19 (.620).

      In May the Marlins starter’s ERA jumped up a full run (month-by-month: 4.36/5.37/4.03) and their bats went cold (OPS month-by-month: .728/.683/.769).

      Basically, the whole team slumped horribly for a month, but before that and after that, they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball. Losing a series to the Marlins, especially one where you only lose the series 1-2 and one of the two losses is a 2-1 loss to Josh Johnson… that’s no great shame.

      • jsbrendog

        theyre also in second place only a game and a haf out i believe

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Yup. The Marlins and Braves are better than people think.

  • Little Bill

    13 IP for Phil Hughes. What a waste of talent. Pettitte or Wang needs to be in the bullpen in the next month and Hughes back in the starting rotation. Girardi is an idiot, but he’s right about one thing- Hitting will fluctuate throughout the season, but if the pitching remains steady you win games.

    I don’t know about 1st place by the ASB. We have 4 with Toronto at home and then 6 on the road vs. Minnesota and the Angels. All good teams. Boston is at home through the ASB vs. Seattle, Oakland, and KC. Only Seattle is a decent team of those. Of course the Sox are losing this series to a below average Baltimore team so who knows.

  • donttradecano

    odd, i sort by RBI and melkys 11 is behind matsuis 9

    • Salty Buggah

      yea, it’s doing that for nearly every stat.

    • donttradecano

      ah its because its off by one…you have to sort SB to sort RBI

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

      It’s fixed now. I had to add a ghost column above the players’ names.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        You’re a gentleman and a scholar.

  • MattG

    Alright, I have the 3-2 pitch to Varitek pauses on MLB.tv. The home plate ump clearly puts his right hand into a fist after this pitch to call Varitek out, but then doesn’t finish the motion. Sherrill finally asks for an appeal, and the umpire, with obvious relief, points down to first base.

    Nice indecision there, ump. I’m not complaining about the call, which was totally 50/50, but I do not care for the total guess work.

    And if there is any question about “clutch hitting,” how about the ground ball to short, which was actually a single to center, as exhibit A that it is nothing but luck.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      If I could find a site where I could track team BABIP in RISP, that would be wonderful.

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        Per the splits on their B-R page, the Yankees have a .282 BABIP with RISP. Sorry if this repeats; it didn’t show up the first time I posted it.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

        You can. It’s right here.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Yeah, right after I posted I started digging through B-R. Shoulda known it was gonna be there.

          A .282 BABIP with RISP does speak to a hint of bad luck/sample variance. The Sox RISP BABIP is .314. Almost a 30-point swing.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

            The league average BABIP with RISP is .297 for what that’s worth. So despite having scored the 2nd most runs in the Majors, the Yanks are underperforming.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Underperforming may not be the right word here.

              Maybe “Underresulting”? “Underattaining”?

            • JP

              Would the appropriate comparison be with the league average, or with the Yankees’ aggregate individual averages? Yankees have good hitters, and good hitters have slightly better BABIP than lousy hitters. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression that both skill and random variance affect BABIP.

              Speaking of correcting me if I’m wrong…
              http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gf3QIkQRGtI

              • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

                <strongbut I was under the impression that both skill and random variance affect BABIP.

                Yeah, pretty much. Obviously, the hitter has little control over where the ball goes after he makes contact, but if he hits the ball hard, it’s more likely to land.

          • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

            But the Sox advantage in BABIP w/RISP could be a little more than just luck/variance because they do have a (slightly) higher SLG w/RISP. All BABIP isn’t just luck, it’s also about hitting the ball hard and the Sox seem to be doing that well w/RISP.

            But, taking HR out of the equation, since they don’t factor into BABIP, the Yankees had 220 TB in 667 ABs, good for a .329 non-HR included SLG w/RISP. The Sox had 218 TB in 653 AB, good for a .333 non-HR included SLG w/RISP. So, yeah, I don’t know exactly what to make of that, I just like uselessly crunching numbers sometimes.

    • Mike HC

      Why can’t it be part luck and part skill. People like to think of things in black and white to make sense of everything, but sometimes, most of the time, there are a multitude of factors that go into a situation. When the pressure is on, some people will perform better than others. Some people step it up and some people will fold, and this is true is all walks of life. In baseball, there is an element of luck in almost every hit. You can’t take luck out of the equation, but that does not mean that there is no skill involved.

      • JP

        Yup.

  • The Iron Horse

    Ben, Joe, Mike – you guys rock keep up the great work.

  • V

    I hate the Orioles.

    Just had to get that out of my system.

    • V

      +1000

      That team should be relegated. I hate them. That franchise needs to die.

      • BklynJT

        I like how you pat yourself on the back. Bravo

        • V

          First post was when they gave up the lead. Second was when they went down 1-2-3 like a bunch of pansies flailing away at slop.

      • jsbrendog

        im not sure how to feel about you responding to yourself there V

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Before the Yankees moved to New York, they were once located in Baltimore and were called the Orioles.

        How do you feel now?

        • http://phabfour.blogspot.com/ Double-J

          He probably hated the St. Louis Browns, too.

          Lousy racists!

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        Relegated? What is this? European Soccer? Psh.

    • BklynJT

      Guess the game is ova. Paplefuck got the save?

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        Hey, hey, hey hey, that’s my name for him. I want credit for that!

        • BklynJT

          Don’t worry, I do my work probono. I care not for the credit, as long as the name is spread wide and far throughout the land. Until one day, us Yankee fans… no the world can unite, and recite that obscenity that is his name, while hurling batteries (and I’m talking about those D Duracell batteries, not those skimpy AA ones) at him. By the name of Mo, we may even be fortunate enough to land one in the open hole on his retarded face.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      I’m shocked, SHOCKED, I tell you, that Jim Johnson and George Sherrill couldn’t hold a 4 run 9th inning lead.

      Shocked.

    • http://phabfour.blogspot.com/ Double-J

      But…their fanbase can write catchy (read: retarded) songs!

  • AJ

    God forbid the Sox go on a losing streak..

  • Doug

    Wasn’t sure where to post this, but did anyone notice Brackman’s ugly line today:

    IP H R ER BB K
    3.2 0 5 5 8 4

    that’s right, he pitched a “no-no”, and lost. if you’re wondering, walked 4 consecutive guys in the 4th before being taken out. reliever gave up a grand slam

    • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

      Ouch…

      • Doug

        couldn’t have put it better myself

    • /guest’d

      Not sure what to think of Brackman right now. These are Low-A hitters after all. Not that i thought Brackman would dominate Low-A like Betances did a year ago, but 70 innings in Brackman’s performances could get him pulled from the rotation for a respite.

      • pat

        As long as he’s healthy they’ll let him get the snot kicked out of him every night.

    • Tank Foster

      This guy will never pan out.

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  • BklynJT

    At least shortie, the fellow dominican user, and new Yankee killer Bay were the ones who made the outs.

  • R.I.P. Michael Jackson

    now its the o’s turn to swing