Jul
16
One last All Star break open thread
ByThe Yankees have one more night of R&R to enjoy before the second half begins, but not everyone is that lucky. The Mets have the Oliver Perez Horror Show taking the mound in Atlanta, which is always good for a laugh. There’s not much else going on tonight, but use this thread to talk about whatever you want. Just be civil.
Oh, and if you haven’t already, make sure you vote in our Favorite Moment of the First Half Poll. Mariano Rivera‘s bases loaded walk is currently in the lead.
206 Comments»
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The Tyler Austin Watch
I guess it’s the Mets and Scrubs and Seinfeld re-runs for another night.
Scrubs could be used to describe the Mets. Amiright?
ICWUDT
I feel like watching a comedy instead of a horror show
Having a young gf blows at times. I had to go see Harry Potter today.
I wanted to walk out to bad.
Having a young gf blows at times
Yes. Yes it does.
…Why don’t you take a seat over here?
/Chris Hansen’d
I dunno that it’s her age that’s necessarily the problem. All sorts of people love Harry Potter.
Word; though I’ve never read a page of the books nor seen more than five minutes of one of the movies.
“Having a young gf blows at times.”
blowing a young GF on the other hand..
I want my yankee games.
I’m going to TWO this weekend!!!
I’m going to ONE next week!
I’m going toMORrow!
Wow.. I’m utterly hopelessly lost without the Yankees.. I really need to get a life.
+134578891015162332374449
I’m reading BP. I need a life.
The Braves are crushing the ball but they’re being caught so far
Oliver Perez pitches to the defense.
I heard the Mets called up Angel Berroa to replace Argenis Reyes.
trooo
why isn’t austin jackson playing today?
Probably needs a day after playing in the ASG in Portland last night.
He hit it over the “impossible fence”
O wait.. not city.. wow.. my bad.
There it is. 1st HR off Perez today
And there is #2. Now those crushed balls are leaving the yard instead of being caught.
atleast he only has 1 walk so far?
meh wait till the Derrek Lowe comes up for the first time, then ALL hell will break loose.
A question for the sabermetricians out there:
Why is Isolated Power (ISO) used when evaluating a player, but not Isolated OBP? If a .250/x/.500 player is expected to show more power going forward than a .300/x/.500 player, wouldn’t a .250/.350/x player be expected to show more plate discipline going forward than a .300/.350/x player?
I love ISO in that it evaluates a player’s true slugging ability. It would seem to make sense then to have a similar stat to evaluate a player’s true plate discipline. Does a stat like this exist? If not, why not?
Well, there is Isolated Discipline (I believe it’s called that) and it’s OBP-BA so is that what you’re thinking of? There’s also stats like BB/K for batters and Walk/Strikeout Percentages.
Isolated Discipline as you described it is exactly what I was thinking off. I’ve never seen anyone reference it before though. K/BB ratios are useful it just seems like OBP-BA would be useful with a large sample size.
Yeah, it’s a good thing. It’s why I get annoyed at Cano sometimes and tend to think Ichiro is slightly overrated.
Very interesting news tonight: “top New York Yankees prospect is not who he claims to be, sources tell SI.com. Two weeks ago, the Yankees signed a shortstop purporting to be 16-year-old Damian Arredondo from the Dominican Republic to an $850,000 bonus. Now Major League Baseball’s Department of Investigations has determined that Arredondo is not the player’s real name and that he is older than 16… I know the draft and Latin American money is different, but I wonder if that money will now be used on Stephen Bruno or Andrew Aplin?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Just saw the link myself.
Um…
The Yankees are freed from the contract, right? Tbey don’t have to pay him even though the contract was signed?
I think so–don’t think any money was exchanged.
the article said something about the player has to wait a year before he can sign another contract so i’ll guess no
Yes the contract said he wouldn’t get paid until the investigation was completed and he was clean. He wasn’t so the contract if voided.
It’s also a total fabrication to call him a “top prospect”
Isn’t it a fabrication to even call him a prospect yet?
Isnt any player not in the majors with considerable upside considered a prospect?
Well, I’d say the fact that he’s “16″ and hasn’t even been stateside yet kinda bars him from being a prospect.
WTF??
Dang. Aw well. I bet you Sano checks in at 19.
I like your idea Januz. $850K definitely gets you that Andrew Aplin kid who’s got a full ride to ASU.
If Sano was lying they would have found it by now. Hes the most heavily scrutinized Latin prospect ever.
Different budgets, but if they can pass that through then that could be Cotham difference.
Glad to see it was caught early, as opposed to having an Esmailyn Gonzalez situation on our hands.
Any chance they might use some of the saved money to go after Sano?
Sorry. Didn’t realize this had been covered 50,000 times throughout this thread. Won’t happen again. -1
How do you think the Yanks will do against the Tigers? They have to face Jackson and Verlander back to back.
ouch.
Eh, just get to the Tiger pen and it’s fair game.
Its gonna be a tough series to win.
#2 and #5 on the ‘pitcher abuse points’ list
Unless that abuse comes home to roost after several days off, I don’t think it’s going to help any
AJ and whoever’s throwing after him had better be on their games…
ha it could happen, some guys blow when they have too much time off.
CC and Joba back up AJ by the way
Joba v Verlander could be great, or it could suck. I hope it’s great, otherwise my dad will spend the whole drive home talking about how he should be back in the bullpen. Last time we saw him start (last June) was the game that they lost to the Royals when Mo gave up a walkoff, and he took 80 pitches to get through 4.1 innings.
I had to explain “confirmation bias” to my dad, my uncle, and a family friend when having a Joba debate this past weekend.
Did they listen?
My dad just nods when I talk about stuff like that and then next time we have the same conversation again.
They kinda listened, not really, though.
I also explained WAR, tRA, and FIP to my cousin’s boyfriend.
And yet neither of those guys are kids so does abuse points even matter? Both guys are vets.
They’re vets, but they’re also in their mid 20s
andd French is pitching tomorrow, who they’ve never seen before, you know what that means….. lol they should be fine as long as Aj and CC continue to pitch well
Neil Medchill 2-run HR in first AB tonight. HR #7, fourth game in a row.
i guess yankee classics will have to do for tonight
Matthew Richardson for GCL Yanks has a 0.64 ERA in 28 IP.
Discuss.
Call me at the end of the season.
18Ks in 22 IP is great, as is the one walk and 0 homers.
Damn, I didn’t even notice that
I’ve got to go back and read the ’08 scouting report on M-Rich. He’s only the second best pitcher on that squad though. Arodys Vizcaino says hello.
Arodys is at Staten Island
Yep. You are correct , and i stand corrected.
Viz got lit up tonight.
He’s the one stolen from my school
lol. Eh, win-win I guess, he’s playing for my real team. Only been pitching a real short time, can’t wait to see what he can do in a few years.
Wow, Medchill deserves a call up pretty soon, the guy is absolutely raking and obviously Staten Island isn’t enough competition for the 22 year old. He seems like he has a legit bat
22 and still at SI? Isn’t that a bit old for that league?
He’s had 22 pro games. You can’t really say “still”
He’ll probably get moved up later this year if he keeps destroying them.
Ahh…I keep forgetting about the whole college thing
You can definitely save that criticism for next year though. Medchill raked in college. He shouldn’t need a whole season in Low-A.
Not really. The guy just signed this year. Most guys go to SI or GCL the year that they sign their contracts.
Would love to see him moved up.
He was just drafted out of college this year so he should breeze through the system
It is a good thing Posada was able to rest 2 out of 3 games with the Angels with only 5 days off this week.
Yeah, they had a real problem scoring runs in that series.
anytime the other team scores more runs than you, you have a problem scoring runs
Did he not pinch hit in any of these games?
besides, I thought Posada called a horrible game and needed to be benched so that the pitching could finally begin to thrive?
If anyone thinks the Yanks are better off with Molina than Posada they should not be allowed to watch baseball.
+20
Posada also has had a sore thumb that caused him to miss some games earlier and he was forced to catch a pop up bare handed. nothing wrong with giving your 37 year old catcher extra days off
Llamas
Anytime the other team scores more than you, you have a problem scoring runs
Great piece by Sky Kalkman today on a potential Halladay deal. Using his model for calculating various prospect’s value, Halladay’s own value and subtracting what Roy earns, it turns out giving up Montero ALONE would be overpaying by approximately DOUBLE.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c.....n-in-a-roy
Tremendous read, give it a look.
One day it would be nice to see Sabbathia beat the Red Sox, Angels, or Rays 2-0. He has blwon games against each this year. I think the word is choker- bring me Halladay.
Heh. Never mind. You just proved to me why it’s pointless to talk to you.
Sabbathia has blwon games!!
You must be alone. I am sorry you are a loser.
http://riveraveblues.com/river.....uidelines/
So sabathia has beaten those teams this year? Maybe you watch the games through Yankee rose colored glasses. Because I watched him blow a lead against the Rays, Sox, and Angels. I could care less what he does with the Orioles.
do you know Doc’s career stats against LAA and BOS?
BOS: 12-12 4.46 ERA (Doc) & 2-5 4.07 era (CC)
LAA: 8-5 4.32 (Doc) & 5-7 4.72 era (CC)
I don’t think he does. And if he does now, he’s sure not gonna admit he was wrong.
Bummer, I’d expect him to say but look at the W/L record anyways
You mean you COULDN’T care less.
Excellent read, thanks!
all this stuff is garbage. If the Yanks can get Montero for Halladay they should do it in a second. If Halladay wins 5 games in the playoffs and the Yanks win a series it means more than if Montero hits 350 with 40 homers each year and the Yanks do not win. Just like Nick Green. I bet his stats say he is a minus for total wins for the year. But he hit a homer and a double to win games. Just like Jeter is overrated. I would still take Jeter as my SS over anyone in the game today. Get out of the house and stop looking at these bullcrap stats.
Cashman doesn’t have the stones to actually trade a prospect for a stud SP that would give this team the best rotation in the game.
The same way he didn’t have ‘the stones’ to get the two best available free agent pitchers this off season?
Mo forbid he think about the future. I think the Yankees could win the WS this year w/o Halladay and not giving up Montero or others gives them better chances to win more WS’s down the line.
You’re right, he should consider the future and I wouldn’t give up Montero in any multi-player deal.
But if any of the top contenders (Yanks/Red Sox/Phillies/Dodgers) get Halladay, they would have put a wide gap between themselves and the rest of Baseball. This is a move that could (and really should) decide things this year. Even if we make the WS, if the Phils get Halladay we’re can’t expect to beat them. If the Red Sox got him, I couldn’t see us getting past the ALCS even if Beckett’s arm fell off.
Word. Obviously, I’ll be pumped if the Yankees get the Doc. But if they don’t get Doc, I won’t be devastated.
I will, if he goes to one of those teams I listed. We would need to get very lucky (1996 style) to win it all if Doc goes to a contender.
The only way I won’t be really concerned is if he goes to the Giants. They already have a ton of pitching, they still wouldn’t be able to hit.
Having the best rotation in the game guarantees nothing.
That’s taking things to the extreme. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but the team that gets Halladay would have the odds stacked in their favor.
When you look at a playoff series, first thing you do is look at the pitching match ups. In your mind, you would be trying to figure out how you could win all 3 of the non Halladay games in the ALDS, or how you could win 4 of 5 non Halladay games in the ALCS or WS. That’s a lot to ask.
Look at our record against him. You wouldn’t be a bit surprised if you lost the series, but you would be shocked if you lost and you were the team who landed Halladay.
Unlike Theo of course. nevermind that the Red Sox is still stuck with a epic black hole in SS 5 years later and Hanely Ramirez is putting up numbers that would place him somewhere in between Honus Wagner and Alex Rodriguez (meaning he is on pace to be the second best SS …*all time*)
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....-the-well/
Uh huh. And if Babe Ruth comes back to life and takes over RF it would help a lot too.
“If Halladay wins 5 games in the playoffs and the Yanks win a series it means more than if Montero hits 350 with 40 homers each year and the Yanks do not win.”
This is not convincing at all. You could also say this:
If the Yanks don’t win the World Series in the next two years, then they’ve lost a key piece to the puzzle of winning over the following six years.
It’s an IF. You need to measure how much Halladay would help this year, who he kicks out of the rotation, how his $15M contract affects 2010, and how much Montero or whatever the Yanks give up would affect things long term.
I don’t get this at all, I’ve tried posting this 5 times, without a link, and it still won’t take. In any case, SI reports that Yankee IFA signing Damon Arredondo has been proven to be a fraud, and the signing has been canceled.
A top New York Yankees prospect is not who he claims to be, sources tell SI.com. Two weeks ago, the Yankees signed a shortstop purporting to be 16-year-old Damian Arredondo from the Dominican Republic to an $850,000 bonus. Now Major League Baseball’s Department of Investigations has determined that Arredondo is not the player’s real name and that he is older than 16.
The Yankees signed the player they thought was Arredondo on July 2, the first day that major league teams are permitted to sign international free agents as young as 16. The Yankees were impressed with the switch-hitter’s strong arm and speed — he reportedly ran a 60-yard-dash in 6.4 seconds.
According to a new Major League Baseball rule, a player found to have used a fraudulent identity or to have misrepresented his age cannot sign with another club for one year. Major League Baseball has recently increased its efforts to deter identity fraud in Latin America by hiring new investigators and dispatching other investigators from its New York City office to oversee the process.
In general, sources say that MLB will be working with authorities in the Dominican Republic to bring criminal charges against the orchestrators of fraud — often the trainers and agents who stand to make large percentages of the prospects’ signing bonuses.
Mark Newman, the Yankees Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations, says that he has not received official notification of the outcome of the Arredondo investigation. The Yankees did not lose any money on the prospect because his bonus was contingent on the outcome of the investigation. Newman expressed gratitude that the investigative process was swift, allowing the team time to continue searching for prospects among the pool of free agents who have not yet been signed.
*facepalm*
Here’s the link, for the 7th time.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ref=si_mlb
LOVE the spam filter around here.
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-481926
http://www.entertonement.com/c.....Y-Popular-
Downside they have one less IFA, upside they didn’t give 850K to a fraud.
I wish they would just use that money to put towards a contract for Sano, because when the investigation is over and it proves that he is 16, someone is going to be lucky to have that kind of a talent in their organization. Since they’re not going for Sano though, they could put that money towards a signability case like Stoneburner or Aplin
I don’t think this has any bearing on the Stoneburner or Alpin signings since the draft and IFA have different budgets.
I wonder if this Arredondo situation changes the Yank’s pursuit of Sano. They thought they had a SS, and now they don’t. Plus, they just saved 850K so even if they have a budget the have some $$ freed up.
We can dream.. I REALLY want us to sign Sano.
Ehh, he’s 16. How often do these Dominican bonus babies pay off? Not every one of them is going to get to the majors like King Felix.
I’m sure Sano is a nice talent, but again, he’s 16. Maybe he’s the next A-Rod, but more likely he’s not.
True, but apparently he’s more than a nice talent. From what I read, many consider him to be the best talent to come out in years, perhaps even a decade.
I thought everyone said the same about Inoa
Yep. Every year there’s a ‘talent of the decade’.
Yeah, but is it better to sign one kid for $4m, or 5 kids for $800k apiece? Or 8 kids for $500k apiece?
(400 kids for $10,000 apiece might be best, but good luck finding a place to play them all)
Seriously, unless someone appears to be an absolute once-in-a-generation talent, I think you have to go with quantity. More likely to get a useful player that way.
Well don’t get all cheap on me. You see supreme talent, you get it, if you can.
The argument I was making was that someone like Sano may not be a supreme talent, and unless there’s something like King Felix available, you’re better off with more, cheaper kids.
You gotta be in it to win it.
Jesus Montero says hello.
Okay. But every single scout predicts Sano to move off SS in the near future. He’s not getting these Hanley Ramirez comps for nothing you know. Those comps started b/c Sano actually has a matured frame.
The MLB investigation process on Sano has dragged on for like forever. I’m now intrigued …
I heard they’re cutting one of his fingers in half and counting the rings.
Mike What would your top 10 Yankee prospect list look like as of this moment, at least Top 5: Mine would be Montero, Jackson, McAllister, Romine, Nova, Brackman, Bleich, ManBan, DeLeon, Heathcott
A mid-season prospect update would be nice. I’m sure Mike is working on one, he did one last year.
I am not sure I’d include Heathcott since he hasn’t thrown a pro inning on the list, but otherwise I like it.
Mainly hes not signed.
Yeah, I hate putting draft pick signings on top 10 lists. That would mean CJ Henry was on the 2005 top 10 list, and Eric Duncan would have been on the 2003 top 10 list.
I asked a question on that subject to Mike in a chat one day and he said a first round pick not being in the top ten either means a ridiculously deep farm system or a bad draft pick.
I understand that, but I still disagree. How many top picks do we see that stumble as they advance? You’re going to rate a kid higher based on his raw tools instead of a guy who’s worked his way through the minors and is succeeding at AA/AAA? How do you explain to Z-Mac that some kid in HS is rated ahead of him?
I just don’t like saying someone is a Top 10 prospect who hasn’t thrown/played an inning of pro ball. I think you have to earn that type of status, and its not something you can achieve in High School.
HS bats like Mike Trout (angels 1st rd pick) or Matt Davidson (D’backs 1st round pick) are most definitely going to make the top 10 list of their respective clubs. I think the argument can be made that Heathcott has a comparable talent in batting and defense to someone like Trout. That makes Heathcott a top 10 prospect in our system.
Thrown?
Brackman has pitched his way off the top 10. I’d put Heathcott in the top 8-10 range. Arodys Vizcaino is probably in that range too. If Viz continues to post that impressive k/9 rate, he might even move higher.
Yea but the money is coming out of the same pocket so either they use the 850K and put it towards a Sano, or the Draft budget should go up 850K since they used 850K less in the IFA
Exactly, and if Cash was only willing to go to 3 mil on Sano for budgetary reasons, then maybe that figure goes up now as well.
Does anyone understand the NFL Supp draft? I see my Skins drafted Jarmon today in exchange for next year’s 3rd round pick. I’m kind of confused with how the whole thing works.
its basically for players who did not apply for the nfl draft, but then end ineligible for the upcoming season (failed drug test, academic or off the field reasons mostly)
http://football.about.com/od/m.....tdraft.htm
Nice, thanks.
Your absolutely right and agree with you 100%, they know they need more SS in the system, and now that they lost out on their SS, they need to go get a good one now, Sano is the only good one left on the market, even if he doesn’t stick at SS, it would be an exceptional scouting year for the Yanks if they reeled in all this talent, then put Chpman in the fold and the Yanks are golden
* Chapman
Cmon dude, Use the reply button, it doesn’t hurt. This is like the 6th time today
I miss Yankee baseball!
yea me too
Montero, Jackson, McAllister, Romine, Nova, ManBan, Vizcaino, Heathcott, DeLeon, Bleich
Is that better?
Montero is 1-2 with an RBI single. 3-3 tie for Trenton.
Thanks for the update
Only a single? He’s gonna be a bust.
WHERE’S THE POW-ER
CLAP CLAP CLAPCLAPCLAP
Lars would have hit a 5 run homer
/gammons
Thought you might like this ‘Becca:
Aaron (Boston): Rather have Jesus Montero or Lars Anderson?
Jim Callis (2:38 PM): Jesus Montero, but I still don’t think he’s a catcher. I still believe in Anderson, too.
- Callis is a red sox fan and (imo) its constantly reflected in his judgment calls whenever he’s asked the “who’s-better” question. This is a BIG moment of admission coming from somebody like Callis.
yea I read that and liked it
With the surge this year made by Jesus Montero, who has the better farm system now, the Yankees or the Red Sox? Because general media perception is that the Red Sox have a better farm but with Jesus catapulting himself into rare territory with the bat, I’d give the Yankees the edge.
So far Jesus has outhit Lars
But they have Bard who throws 120mph and his curveball breaks like a ball rolling off a table!
I’d still give the Sawx a slight edge. They’ve done real well for themselves in the draft and have more top talent closer to the majors. The Yanks have done well for themselves with international free agents, and have much more of that talent in the lower levels. To me the talent is equal with the Sawx having more players closer to the majors.
Judgment reserved (on my end at least).
I want to see how Lars Anderson and Josh Redick finish out their seasons. Casey Kelly has turned out to be some kinda pitchaaahhh. RS didn’t waste their 2008 1st round pick.
Our main boys are performing though. Z-Mac is showing he’s going to be a major league pitcher somewhere. It’d be nice to see Kelvin DeLeon add some prospect depth to the OF with a strong finish. Good 2nd half story lines to follow.
Reddick is hitting .188 against lefties in AA, and hit .189 overall in the AFL.
But its not realistic to think Yankees’ system has passed Boston in 1/2 season. They would have to have numerous guys seriously underperform or experience season ending injuries
Was Nova ever considered a top talent when the Yanks signed him?
Yes, but he never lived up to the billing until this year.
He was the brightest of stars. He was a sup… nah, I can’t do it.
he’s not really a top talent imo. I think that’s a stretch. Nova isn’t a better prospect than z-mac.
wow. who would have thought…
http://nyyankeesrumors.com/wil.....-stand-up/
Sorry dude, this has already been covered multiple times in the thread….
Ummm this has been discussed here already. Look at the above comments, there’s like 50 of them.
http://sadtrombone.com/
It works on two levels.
U startin with me Matty?!
Haha, ICWUDT.
So are the Mets gonna win this one??
Well, they are losing 4-3 in the bottom of the eighth so I doubt it.
David Wright range fail.
what happened?
He showed some incredibly poor range on what I thought was a very reachable ball at third.
gotcha thanks
He looks like a 1st baseman out there.
/Olney’d
Speaking of David Wright, his HR/FB rate has dropped from 16.7% last year (16.1% in ’07) to 5.6%, via FanGraphs. There’s no H/A split, but he has only 2 HR on the road so Citi Field is definitely not entirely to blame.
didnt he only have 6 after the break last year? HR Derby curse?!?!
Last year he had 17 before the break and 16 thereafter.
If there was a logical correlation (which there isn’t), last year would show that the HR Derby improved Wright’s ability to hit HR’s, not the other way around. He hit those 16 HR’s in 104 less ab’s then it took him to get the 1st 17. The HR Derby curse is a myth.
Did he do the Derby in ’08? I can’t remember.
Wright did not do the Derby in’ 08.
he did it in 2006, just said the wrong year
Abreu, Anderson, Wright, Morneau, Hamilton, Edmonds, and Lee all experience less power the 2nd half.
“The HR Derby curse is a myth.” it doesnt effect some guys, while it effects others.
But they are getting selected because of big 1st halves and are likely to regress back to normal. Odds of it having anything to do with the actual derby are very unlikely. What about the derbies they did in the 60′s that you see on ESPN Classic?
regression is normal, but Wright hitting only 6 hr after the break? Abreu only hit 6 too, thats a little extreme
As for Wright, his approach in the derby altered his swing for the rest of the season. It messed him all up. He even admitted so I believe. Not a curse as much as a residual effect.
For Bobby, he’s not a “power hitter.” Yeah, we know he’s hit 30 hr’s twice, but he’s an “average hitter,” not necessarily a power guy. His case is what I would call a regression.
my fault, that was 2006 when he did that
SWB Yanks win on a walk off by DeCaster, afterwards Shelley basically beats the hell out of the poor bastard. The guys either a maniac or he just loves playin baseball and I don’t think being in AAA is bothering him all that much.
anyone know whats the latest with IPK??
http://tinyurl.com/lt4cx7
i was surprised to find ian kennedy had a twitter account, until you click on it and realize the dude is from finland
i actually did that already but I only found info dating back to the end of june. I was wondering if anyone knew or heard anything more about him recently.
lol at No Maas’s midterm infield grades.
If you get a minute, check out Cody Ransom’s grade. It’s good for a chuckle.
http://nomaas.org/