Archive for July, 2009

The Blue Jays started the 2009 season as hot as can be. On May 12 they were 23-12, a game up on the Red Sox in the AL East and 6.5 ahead of the Yankees. While some thought they were for real, it looked more to me like a 2005 Orioles job. Lo and behold, almost two months later they’re 43-41, seven back of the Red Sox and six back of the Yanks. They’re not out of it, but it would take an incredible run to charge back in this powerhouse AL East.

What does this mean for the Jays? Ken Rosenthal thinks it means they’re ready to take offers for ace Roy Halladay. It’s not the first time we’ve heard Halladay speculation, but with a year and a half left on his deal the Jays will never find a bigger haul for him than they will this month. General Manager J.P. Ricciardi has said that the team’s best chance to win next year is with Halladay in the rotation, and that’s true. But is it their best long-term option?

What further complicates the situation is that the Jays owe gobs of money to Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, who are both underperforming, through 2014. The Jays just have to hope they produce, because there is little or no chance of trading either without eating a significant portion of the contract. Moving Halladay, who rightly would be the highest-paid Jay next year, could improve the team not only with prospects, but with a bit of financial flexibility that they could use to make another deal in the off-season.

There are almost no bad scenarios for the Yankees here. Rosenthal’s list contains only three American League teams: the Yanks themselves, the Red Sox, and the White Sox. Obviously, the Yanks don’t want to see Halladay starting at Fenway any time soon, but almost any other scenario, including acquiring him themselves, looks just fine.

What about acquiring him? Rosenthal notes that Ricciardi would deal within the division, though we all know there’s a premium there. Any package would probably have to start with Phil Hughes, and then include one of the Yanks’ precious few bats, likely one of the catchers. Would Hughes, Romine, and a third prospect, probably of the top-10 variety, be enough to land Halladay? Would the Yankees be wise to make such a move?

There’s no doubt that acquiring Halladay would leave the Yankees with the best rotation in baseball. In the short term, they’d be as well off as any other team, probably better off. In the long term they’d be giving up prospects, sure, but prospects can bust. It looks like Phil Hughes is finding his way, and it would probably suck to face him four or five times a year. But it wouldn’t be nearly as bad as facing Halladay that many times.

Chances are, Halladay stays put. Teams are more reluctant to part with prospects than ever, especially because of their economic value. The Blue Jays will request a ransom for Halladay, and rightly so, but other teams might not be so keen to part with young, cheap, controllable players to acquire an expensive one whose contract runs only through 2010. If there’s a deal to be made, though, I expect the Yanks will at least kick the tires.

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Jul
07

What the umpire saw

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“Yer blind, ump. Yer blind, ump. You must be out of your mind, ump,” goes part of the refrain from the opening number to the Broadway musical Damn Yankees. Don’t we know it.

On Monday afternoon, in the first inning of the final game of the Yanks-Blue Jays set, Derek Jeter tried to steal third with no outs in the bottom of the first. While we can argue — and have —  the baseball smarts behind the decision to steal, Jeter was seemingly safe at third. The throw from Toronto catcher Rod Barajas arrived at the base before Derek did, but the Yanks’ short stop snuck his hand around the incoming tag from Scott Rolen. Replays clearly showed he was safe.

Marty Foster did not agree. He called Jeter out, and the normally placid captain erupted at the explanation. As Jeter said after the game, “I was told I was out because the ball beat me, and he didn’t have to tag me. I was unaware they had changed the rules.”

According to Jeter, Foster, the third base umpire, actually said to him, “He didn’t have to [tag you]. The ball beat you.” Joe Girardi got himself ejected arguing the call and tempered his critique. “I didn’t care for the explanation,” Girardi said. “Just leave it at that. There has to be more to it.”

Of course there has to be more to it than that. It’s the rulebook. A player not forced out has to be tagged out. He isn’t out if the ball gets there first; he’s out if he’s tagged with the glove holding the ball or just the ball before safely reaching the base. That is not what happened today.

After the game, the press wanted to speak with Mr. Foster, but he pulled a cowardly move and didn’t show up. Instead, he asked John Hirschbeck, the crew chief and representative umpire to the press, to talk to the reporters. Hirschbeck was lukewarm in his support of Foster. He called Jeter “the classiest person I’ve been around” and noted that Derek doesn’t argue unless he feels wronged. “It would make his actions seem appropriate if that’s what he was told,” Hirschbeck said of Jeter’s reaction to Foster.

In the end, Hirschbeck said he’d chat with Foster about the call later and weakly called the whole thing a learning experience. “Marty asked me to handle things today,” he said. “We hopefully learn from our experiences. It’s the only way we get better at what we do.”

Hirschbeck and Foster will have their talk, and then Major League Baseball will probably discipline Foster behind closed doors. We’ll never know what happens, and the Yanks won’t get a chance to play out a game they could have won had the right call been made. In an age of instant replay, in an age of DVR, that’s just not an acceptable solution.

Umpires have long been under attack from technology. While traditionalists like to promote the “human error” aspect of a baseball game, the truth is that we root for our team to win fair and square. We don’t want to see the histrionics of the umpires, and we don’t want their perception of a play — the nostalgic idea that the ball arrived first so the player is out — to cloud what really happens when we know that what really happened isn’t what the umpire called.

Baseball has options. They could institute a form of limited replay review. Contrary to what the naysayers naysay, review doesn’t slow down the game any longer than Joe Girardi’s on-field protestations do, and reviews of plays such as the one at third today don’t impact the sacred integrity of the game — which, by the way, is sacred only because the technology didn’t exist when the first ump took the field.

While I see the merits in Beyond the Boxscore’s call to use pitch f/x to call the games, I don’t want to see the human element completely removed from the field of play. There is something to be said for having people and not computerized cameras call the game. Still, what happened on Monday and the subsequent explanations are not acceptable. Foster should have to face the press, and no team should have to put up with the explanation he gave Derek Jeter at third base today.

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Jul
06

Brackman struggles yet again

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One year ago today on DotF, Alberto Gonzalez hit a walk-off jack in the 12th inning against Toledo.

Inexplicably, Jesus Montero was not named Eastern League Player of the Week. I guess hitting .391 with a double and four homers doesn’t compare to .379 with four doubles, one triple and one homer anymore.

Garrett Patterson was placed back on the DL. It was fun while it lasted, even if it was just one appearance.

Triple-A Scranton
Game 1
(3-2 win Pawtucket in 11 innings, walk-off style) makeup of one of the games they couldn’t play this weekend because the field was a mess
Kevin Russo, Colin Curtis & Eric Duncan: all 1 for 5 – Russo drew a walk & scored twice … Curtis K’ed twice
Ramiro Pena & Chris Stewart: both 1 for 4, 1 BB – Pena doubled … Stewart K’ed
Austin Jackson: 0 for 2, 1 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB
Shelley Duncan: 0 for 3, 1 BB
Juan Miranda: 3 for 5, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Yurendell DeCaster: 2 for 5, 2 K, 1 SB
Ivan Nova: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 7-7 GB/FB – 62 of 90 pitches were strikes (68.9%)
Edwar Ramirez: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2-2 GB/FB – 32 of 47 pitches were strikes (68.1%)
Mark Melancon: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 6-3 GB/FB, 1 E (missed catch) – 27 of 42 pitches were strikes (64.3%)

Read More→

Categories : Down on the Farm
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Jul
06

Open Thread: Brett Tomko, artist

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Brett Tomko paintingYankee fans aren’t too fond of Brett Tomko – the 12th pitcher on the staff – these days. After all, he allowed those two homers in the middle innings that one time. Well, believe it or not Brett’s earned a pretty decent living for himself throwing a baseball (B-Ref says he’s raked in over $20M in his career), and it looks like he’s got a nice career lined up for when his playing days are over.

Tomko, you see, is a rather talented artist. He started copying the comics section of the newspaper when he was five, then stuck with it all through high school and majored in art at Florida Southern. Once he was drafted in the second round by the Reds, everything kind of got put on hold until he got together with Opie Otterstad, a prominent sports artist.

Since then, Tomko’s painted everyone from Nomar Garciaparra to Trevor Hoffman to Joakim Soria, and his current project is for fellow reliever Phil Hughes. “You could just see these perfect creases in the jersey,” Hughes said. “It’s insane. He’s really, really good. Some people think he paints, so what? But if you actually see him, it’s like, ‘Wow, he could do this for a living.’”

Marc Carig of The Star-Ledger wrote all about Tomko and his art today, so make sure you check it. There’s even a short video clip showing Tomko working on the painting for Hughes and explaining what goes in to it. Cool stuff, give it a read.

* * *

Feel free to use this as your open thread for the evening. The Braves and Cubs are on ESPN, but the Mets are off. Anything goes, just be nice.

Photo Credit: John O’Boyle, The Star-Ledger

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Updated (5:36 p.m. with quotes from the post-game interviews): Derek Jeter really set the tone for this one in the first inning. A walk and a balk landed him on second base with Nick Swisher up, and then Derek got greedy. He took off for third, and while the replays showed he may have gotten his hand in before the tag, the throw beat him. “Out!” said the umpire.

An argument ensued, and as Jeter later explained during the post-game interviews, the ump had some interesting explanations for the call. Jeter alleges that Marty Foster said he made the out call because the throw beat him by so much. “I was told I was out because the ball beat me, and he didn’t have to tag me,” Jeter said to the reporters. “I was unaware they had changed the rules.”

If that’s really how it went down, Foster has some explaining to do. That’s a pretty outrageous statement for an umpire to make. Until instant replay review is instituted in baseball on a wider level, that subjective decision is part of the game, and it killed the Yanks in the first.

On the next pitch, Nick Swisher laced a single into center field. If we discount the fact that nothing in baseball is a predestined event, Jeter could have scored. In addition to the bad call, what also irked me about Jeter’s decision — and I’m pinning this one on Jeter’s choosing to try for third — was how little it could have helped the Yanks had he been safe.

Based on the 2009 Run Expectancy Matrix, teams this year with a runner on second and no one out are expected to score 1.10 runs. Teams with a runner on third and no one out are expected to score 1.32 runs. Meanwhile, a team with one out and no one on is expected to score 0.29 runs. The marginal reward for the steal of third is just 0.22 runs while Jeter’s making the first out at third base cost the Yanks 0.81 runs. Even though he was technically safe, it just doesn’t make sense for Jeter to try that risky move with no one out and the Yanks’ heart of the order due up, and we don’t need the run expectancy spreadsheet to tell us that. In that situation early in the game, it’s just not worth the risk.

The rest of the game was similarly frustrating. Andy Pettitte needed just six pitches — five of them strikes — to get through the first and then used 103 more to get through the next 5+ innings. Of those, 53 were strikes and 50 balls. He just didn’t have his best stuff, and Tony Pena, managing for the ejected Joe Girardi, probably shouldn’t have left him in to start the 7th with his pitch count pushing 100.

But Andy Pettitte is Andy Pettitte. It’s frustrating to watch him alternate good starts and bad starts, but at the same time, he’s the team’s fifth starter. Even without his best stuff, he gave the Yankees a chance to win it. They just couldn’t capitalize. We could blame the umpires for a bad call in the third that eventually led to a two-out, three-run home run off the bat of Alex Rios, but blaming the umps gets us nowhere. That’s just part of the game. Pettitte, and not the umpires, threw an 0-1 fastball into Alex Rios’ wheelhouse.

The loss may belong to Pettitte, but I’d be remiss to leave out a mention of Brian Bruney. The former 8th Inning Guy came in with a runner on first and no outs in the 7th. The Yankees needed Bruney to slam the door, and he threw it wide open. After a strike out, back-to-back doubles brought home an inherited run and one of his own. The Blue Jays had a 7-1 lead, and while Bruney would get another out and issue a free pass before getting the hook, the game was nearly out of reach. Where Bruney fits into the pen right now is anyone’s guess, but it won’t be in high leverage situations until he earns it.

In the end, the Yanks tried to mount a comeback. They plated two in the 7th, one in the 8th and two in the 9th, but it would not be enough. Nick Swisher didn’t come through with two outs and the bases loaded. Eric Hinske struck out swinging on a 3-2 slider from Justin Frasor with the tying run on first. Sometimes, the Comeback Kids can’t comeback.

We can’t complain too much about the homestand. The Yanks have won four straight series, and if they go 3-1 every four games, we’d be happy. But at the same time, you want to see them squash some teams along the way. For the second straight series, they had a sweep within their grasp but could not close the door. Today, they had their chances but went just 2 for 11 with runners in scoring position and left 11 runners on. From Jeter to the umpires to Pettitte and Bruney to the failed ninth inning comeback, it was one frustrating game.

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Jul
06

Game 82 Spillover Thread

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Bad base-running decisions lose games. Do the Comeback Kids have another one in them today?

Categories : Game Threads
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Is it harder to believe that the Yankees have already played half of their scheduled games or that they have the third-best record in the Majors?

After beating the Blue Jays for the third straight time yesterday, the Yanks stand at 48-33, one game behind the Red Sox in the AL East and 2.5 over the Angels/Rangers tandem in the Wild Card standings. Meanwhile, no team has scored more runs than the Yankees.

To start the second half, the Yankees are playing with house money. They’ve already won the series against the Blue Jays, and the Bombers, behind Andy Pettitte, will go for the sweep today in a mid-afternoon special that should make us all far less productive than we need to be for the next three hours. A win would be a nice reward on this sunny July afternoon.

Pettitte is coming off of a good start, and based upon his recent trends, that’s not necessarily a good thing for the Yanks. Since May 29, Pettitte, as you can see from his gamelog has alternated good starts with bad starts, and he hasn’t recorded Ws in back-to-back since mid-May. Hopefully, he can break that streak today.

The Blue Jays counter with promising youngster Ricky Romero. The lefty hasn’t allowed a run since the 2nd inning of his June 21 start against the Nationals. He’s shut down the Phillies’ potent offense and the Rays’ potent offense. Perhaps he’s due for a clunker. On the season, he is 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA.

The Yanks will send out a modified lineup against the lefty. Johnny Damon gets the day off, and Eric Hinske will make his pinstriped debut. Nick Swisher plays first; Mark Teixeira DHs; and finally, Jorge Posada, and not Robinson “King of the GIDP” Cano, will provide protection for A-Rod.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher 1B
Mark Teixeira DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robbie Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera LF
Eric Hinske RF
Brett Gardner CF

And pitching, number 46, Andy Pettitte.

Categories : Game Threads
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Jul
06

Time For A Reality Check

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Bad JobaEven though the Yanks walked away with a win yesterday, neophyte righthander Joba Chamberlain labored through yet another start, struggling with his command and failing to put hitters away with two strikes. After the game Joba said he thought he did pretty well and there wasn’t much he could do, but the most damning quote was: “At the end of the day, the sun comes up and I still have a job.” That’s beyond delusional, because at this point in his career Joba isn’t guaranteed anything. All he needs to do is look across the clubhouse at Phil Hughes for an example of that. Joe Girardi commented that they’ve been working with Joba on improving his tempo and plan to continue doing so, but we’ve seen absolutely zero improvement in five starts now.

Yet because Joba is the darling that he is, fans blamed grumpy old veteran Jorge Posada for his struggles, pumping out excuses about his inability to call a good game and work with pitchers. Meanwhile, the pitching staff went from allowing 5.27 runs per game to 4.15 runs per game after Posada returned from the DL on May 29th. So whatever problem Posada has working with pitchers, it appears to be confined to Joba. Either that, or the rest of the staff is just better at overcoming those problems. The most likely explanation: Joba is the problem.

In hindsight, calling Joba up and moving him to the bullpen in 2007 was the worst possible thing the organization could have done. Oh sure, the Yankees wouldn’t have made the playoffs that year without Joba’s stellar relief work, but as is often the case with the Yanks, they mortgaged part of the future for the present. Joba was thrust into the spotlight far too soon; he had New York eating out of the palm of his hand thanks to his triple digit fastball and explosive fist pumps before he was ready for it. First there were the “We want Jah-Ba! clap clap clapclapclap” chants, then there were the Joba Rules shirts, then there were Phiten and Modell’s commercials. But it was all too soon.

Don’t get me wrong, Joba was more than ready physically. His stuff was unbelievable and the results were astonishing. But mentally, Joba was still just an immature 21-yr old kid unprepared for the spotlight. He came into camp in 2007 and promptly missed the first month of the season after catching a spike during PFP and pulling a hammy. After just seven dominant starts with High-A Tampa, he was bumped up to Double-A Trenton. Six starts later, Joba was in Triple-A readying himself to come out the bullpen. He didn’t have enough time to even catch his breath all season, let alone learn how to get by on days when he didn’t have his best stuff or deal with failure. He was rushed and everyone is experiencing the consequences now.

However, it’s not to late to correct that. It’s time to ship Joba to Triple-A. Call up Sergio Mitre, move Phil Hughes or Al Aceves into the rotation, do whatever has to be done to soak up those innings, but right now it’s best for Joba to pitch in an environment that’s geared more toward development than production. Make him carry around his own bags and twiddle his thumbs on the bus. Make him watch 35-year-old Jason Johnson pitch with a torn labrum just because it might be the last chance he gets to chase his dream. Have him sit and watch good friend Ian Kennedy rehab from an aneurysm that could have potentially ended his career. Give him a dose of reality, and let him realize just how fortunate he is.

Again, don’t get me wrong. I love Joba as much as the next guy, and I look forward to watching him anchor the Yankees’ rotation for the next decade, but at this point a demotion is what’s best for him. Have him start every five days and work on his command, his tempo, his everything. Let him face experienced hitters in Triple-A and learn how to attack them. Simply put, it’s time for Joba to make up for the development time he missed out on by being rushed to the big leagues back in 2007. For once, the Yankees should put long terms plans ahead of short term gains.

Note: This goes beyond Joba as well. Young players are being rushed to the big leagues more than ever these days, even though almost all of them need more innings/at-bats in the minors to hone their craft. It’s not just about production and physical gifts, the mental part of the game also needs to be developed. Remember that the next time you want Jesus Montero moved to the outfield or some young kid promoted after he hits a few homers or strikes a bunch of guys out.

Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP

Categories : Rants
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Jul
06

Fan Confidence Poll: July 6th, 2009

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Record Last Week: 5-1 (36 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 48-33 (451 RS, 390 RA), 1.0 GB
Opponents This Week: vs. Toronto (1 game), @ Minnesota (3 games), @ Anaheim (3 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current play, roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

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Through two innings on Sunday afternoon, the Yankees found themselves enjoying the good life. They had put on 10 runners and had scored four runs while Joba Chamberlain had done a decent job recording the first six outs.

In the third and fourth innings, though, the wheels fell off. In the third, a few hits and a home run brought the Blue Jays to within a run. All three Toronto runs scored with two outs. Worse still was Joba’s climbing pitch count. It took him 65 pitches to record the first nine outs of the game, and again, the Yanks’ youngster couldn’t put hitters away .

Joba would get just two more outs and use 31 more pitches before finding himself out of the game with two outs in the fourth. A single by Lyle Overbay followed by a Vernon Wells fly out set the stage for a play that would echo throughout the game. Cody Ransom misplayed a potential double-play ball, and Joba couldn’t get out of the inning. With two on, Joba got the second out, but then the Blue Jays let loose. Double, single, home run, single. 8-4 Toronto. Joba out; Albaladejo in.

Chamberlain’s final line shows just three earned runs, but the rest of it is downright ugly. He allowed nine hits and a walk in 3.2 innings. He struck out just one and allowed eight runs to score, all with two outs. He threw 86 pitches and wasn’t particularly wild. In fact, a 53/33 ball-to-strike ratio is a bit of an improvement over Joba’s recent efforts.

And yet, this time he couldn’t escape with his 92-mile-per-hour fastball. He couldn’t finish off hitters; he couldn’t finish off innings; and the Blue Jays instead finished him off in short order. As I mentioned last week, Joba’s velocity just isn’t where it needs to be. He threw just a handful of pitches at about 94mph and sat at 92.4, according to Gameday. His peak is down by about 4-5 miles per hour over last year, and his average is down by around 3-4 miles per hour as well.

In the end, today wasn’t a step back for Chamberlain as much as it was a course correction. For weeks, he’s been throwing too many pitches, putting too many runners on and getting away with it. Today, it came back to bite him, and he lost it bad. It’s definitely becoming a problem. Now, the solution to the Joba Problem isn’t to move him to the bullpen. He had these velocity problems in the pen last year, and as Mike will explain on Monday morning, the bullpen should be out of the question. The solution is to find those missing miles-per-hour. Where they are, I do not know.

Meanwhile, with Joba out, the Yankees never said die. Led by a four-hit attack by Derek Jeter and a big three-run shot by Hideki Matsui in the bottom of the disastrous fourth, the Yanks pulled a Roger Federer. After a grueling 3 hour 44 minute affair, the Yanks won by two.

With the offense as loaded as it is, no game is really over for this team, and for that, we can thank the bullpen. Sunday’s game belonged to Al Aceves. He utterly dominated the Blue Jays for four innings and threw just 10 of his 43 pitches out of the strike zone. He allowed one hit and struck out five. I shudder to think where the Yanks would be without him.

Aceves put the exclamation point on a stellar weekend of relief pitching. In three games against the Jays, the Yanks’ pen has twirled 14 innings. They’ve given up one earned run on eight hits and four walks while striking out 12. Considering how badly the pen fared in April, this overhauled bullpen led by Mo, the Phils and Aceves has been all sorts of great.

When the dust settled, the Yanks won. They held steady with Boston who pulled off a late-game comeback of its own, and gained a game on the Rays. They play again at 1:05, and with this win behind us and another game in a few hours, going back to work on Monday isn’t as bad as it could be.

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