Archive for August, 2009
What’s up with Aceves?
Posted by: | CommentsMore often than not, Al Aceves has gotten the job done whenever Joe Girardi called on him this year. He was dynamite in the first half, posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a .637 OPS against in his first 22 outings. Opposing batters haven’t been too kind to Mr. Aceves since then, tattooing him to the tune of a 7.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 appearances since. Most point to his spot start in Minnesota and the shoulder fatigue/soreness that followed as the problem (correlation =/= causation!), but Aceves’ velocity is fine, and that’s the primary indicator of shoulder trouble.
The reality is that Aceves has had just three really bad outings since the break that are inflating his ERA. Let’s take a look at them one by one:
July 18th vs Detroit: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 15 pitches
With the Yanks up 2-0 (this was the Sabathia-Verlander duel), Aceves entered the game in the 8th and retired the first two batters (Placido Polanco & Miguel Cabrera) before giving up a solo jack to ex-Yank Marcus Thames. He retired Magglio Ordonez to end the inning and that was that. Hit Tracker says Thames’ shot would have been gone in a total of nine big league parks, but whatever. Thames has 38 homers in his last 564 plate appearances (not quite a full season’s worth), so the dude can crush the ball. Giving up a solo jack to him is no big deal in my book.
July 20th vs. Baltimore: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 11 pitches
Game tied at one in the top of the ninth, Aceves comes in with one out and Adam Jones on first after being plunked by Phil Coke. Jones stealssecond, but Melvin Mora pops out to center for the second out. Aceves is ordered to intentionally walk the molten hot Luke Scott (.310-.403-.638 in his previous 16 games), and then gets Nolan Reimold to fly out to left. Hideki Matsui homers in the bottom of the ninth and Aceves walk-offs with a win.
July 21st vs. Baltimore: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 12 pitches
With the Yanks up 6-4 in the 6th, Aceves comes in with a man on first and two outs. He gets Matt Wieters to fly out to left to end the inning, then sits down Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones in the 7th without incident. Done and done.
July 25th vs Oakland: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 13 pitches
Andy Pettitte departs with the bases loaded and one out, and Aceves gets the first batter he faces to pop out to first. Landon Powell singles to left on an 0-2 count (you may remember this pitch, it was a hanger right out over the plate that was flared over Jeter), Adam Kennedy singles back up the middle, and Orlando Cabrera drilled a double into right. K-Rob™ comes in and cleans the mess up. Aceves gets rocked.
On July 28th, we first learn of Aceves fatigued wing.
July 31st @ White Sox: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 39 pitches
Aceves starts the sixth with the Yanks down 6-5. He retires Scott Podsednik, Gordon Beckham, and Jim Thome on two fly balls and a groundout. He walks Paul Konerko to lead off the seventh, then gives up a single to AJ Pierzysnki. Carlos Quentin and Mark Kotsay then fly out, but Jayson Nix walks in a well fought eight pitch at bat. Chris Getz singles in two runs, then Nix steals home when Jorge Posada throws to second on Getz’s steal attempt. Podsednik singles through the 3.5 hole for another run and Aceves’ day is done. Two straight clunkers.
August 5th @ Toronto: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 25 pitches
With the Yanks up 3-2 in the sixth, Ace sits down Edwin Encarnacion, Rod Barajas, and Joe Inglett down in order on two strikeouts and a little dribbler that landed in front of the plate. Marco Scutaro homers to lead off the seventh after the Yanks tack on three more runs, then Aaron Hill hits a weak liner to short for an out. Phil Coke comes in to face the lefties Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay. Not a terrible outing, not a great one. Acceptable.
August 7th vs. Boston: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 37 pitches
The 15-inning marathon game. Aceves walks Chris Woodward, then allows a single to Jacoby Ellsbury after two quick ground outs. He retires the next seven batters in order with only one ball leaving the infield. Well done.
August 10th vs. Toronto: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 42 pitches
Enters the game in the sixth with Toronto up 5-4. Sets down the side in order in his first inning of work, then gives up singles with two outs in the seventh to Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. He sets down the next seven in order. Again, well done. It’s probably worth noting that with this game, Aceves had thrown 104 pitches in three outings over the last six days.
August 16th # Seattle: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 48 pitches
His only other real stinker, Aceves pitches a scoreless sixth but allows a double to Jack Wilson and a single to Ichiro! in the process. The next inning starts with a Junior single and a Franklin Gutierrez double, but Jack Hannahan grounds out to second for the first out. Kenji Johjima is hit by a pitch to load the bases, but Aceves strikes out Ryan Langerhans for the second out (you probably remember this, he blew three straight fastballs right by him for three swinging strikes). Ace then hits Jack Wilson to force in a run, and is taken out in favor of Chad Gaudin. Gaudin allows all three inherited runners to score and then some before recording the final out of the inning.
If Gaudin got the third out right away, Aceves’ line would have been a much prettier 1.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. Not great obviously, but not nearly the eyesore.
Then there was last night. He escaped that bases loaded, one out, jam with a 1-2-3 double play, then got Ryan Sweeney and Landon Powell to ground out for two quick outs in the sixth. Jack Cust hit that towering homer that just kept carrying and carrying out to center, but Aceves got Tommy Everidge to line out to second to end the inning. With most of the fan base clamoring for Phil Hughes in the seventh, Ace actually struck out the first two batters of the frame. Rajai Davis singled and stole second, then came home on Mark Ellis single back up the middle. Kurt Suzuki singled weakly to the left side and Phil Coke came in to escape the jam. It wasn’t a great performance, but hardly a disaster.
So by my count, there’s only three real stinkers in there. Two of them came in back-to-back outings which were sandwiched around the announcement that Aceves had a sore/fatigued shoulder, and a third that wouldn’t have been so bad had a whole bunch of inherited runners been stranded. Perhaps the problem is that Aceves was so great in the first half of the year that we’ve been spoiled and come to expect that every outing. As RLYW has noted, Aceves has been outperforming his FIP all year, so this just might be a good ol’ statistical correction.
The beautiful thing about having a seven game lead and a 99.26073% chance to make the playoffs is that the team can err on the side of caution. If Aceves’ shoulder is in fact barking, they can take it easy and rest him, perhaps even sticking him on the disabled list so they can get a warm body to replace him. It’s gotten kind of tiresome to see people speculate that so-and-so must be hurt because he’s not pitching well; guys can just struggle for no apparent reason, you know. It’s called a slump. As the number three option out of the ‘pen, Aceves is going to play a big role in October, and there’s no reason for the Yanks to screw around with such a big lead in August.
Jeter not thinking about his next contract, though he probably is
Posted by: | CommentsMark Feinsand has a bit up on his blog about Derek Jeter and his contract which expires after next season. We’ve discussed this plenty on RAB in the past, taking the angles of salary, contract length, and defensive position. Those are all factors that will play into the negotiations, which in all likelihood won’t happen until after next season. That’s just how Brian Cashman seems to operate. If he’s not going to negotiate ahead of time for Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, he probably won’t for Jeter.
Jeter, for his part, is saying all the right things, as is his wont. He’s worried about this year, and that it’s “unfair to think about what [he's] going to be doing years from now as opposed to trying to help [the Yankees] win this year.” It’s typical Jeter-speak, and we shouldn’t expect anything else at this point. He’s been talking like this to the media for years because it’s disarming. It doesn’t mean it’s actually what he’s thinking.
Like the rest of us, Jeter has likely thought about life after 2010. How could he not? Maybe he shuts it out during the season and concentrates on baseball — and if that’s the case, it’s working. But what about that long off-season? If he didn’t think about his contract last off-season, he’s probably going to think about it after this season. After all, he has but one year left on his contract, and they’re not doling out contracts like they did in 2001 (unless you’re Hank Steinbrenner, who by all appearances is out of the picture).
We’ve all thought about this. Will Jeter take a pay cut? How many years will he want? Most importantly, how far apart will he and the Yankees be? Those are all questions we’ll be asking in earnest at this point next year. Thankfully, right now we can sit back and enjoy the ride. Jeter is with the team now, and he will be next year.
Just to tack my two cents onto the end of this, I think a perpetual mutual agreement, with a team option and then a player option behind it could be the kind of creative deal that could get this done. A mutual option for, say $16 million, and if that’s declined by one party it goes to a player or a team option for a little less (probably would go to the declining party). If that’s declined, it goes to the other party for a little less. That would keep Jeter in pinstripes and keep the team from having to commit a significant chunk of payroll, in the present and future, to him.
Yanks fill us in on obvious Joba plan
Posted by: | CommentsSince the beginning of the year, Brian Cashman has told the media that the team has a plan to manage Joba Chamberlain‘s innings, so that he doesn’t so greatly exceed his previous season high. Drastic increases have proven risk, and although the Yankees could use their budding star in the rotation, they’ll put Chamberlain’s long-term development ahead of these immediate concerns. Yesterday the team let us know the plan for the rest of the season.
As discussed earlier in the week, it would appear the Yanks are trying to limit Joba to between 150 and 160 innings during the regular season. He’s currently at 126.2, so it wouldn’t seem that he has much left. Cashman said as much, announcing that Joba will start only six more times over the final 41 games of the season. That’s about once a week, so the Yanks will need the services of Chad Gaudin to help fill in the rest of the way.
All considered, this doesn’t seem like a bad plan. There’s a clear need, as outlined at length earlier this week, to keep Joba’s workload in check. To toss out another analogy, it’s like going easy on your car for the first 500 to 1,000 miles. Maybe you open it up right off the lot and nothing goes wrong…but that’s the anomaly. The idea is to keep it at a low limit until it’s broken in. Then you can gun it. Same deal with Joba.
Of course, anyone is at liberty to disagree, though I’ve seen few convincing arguments to the contrary. The Yankees, who have a vested interest in Joba’s long-term health and effectiveness, have decided to keep a cap on Joba’s innings, so that they can get the most use out of him now and in the future. Since the cap figures to be at 160 to 165 innings this year, plus playoffs, we could see Joba without limitations next year. Like the decision to not trade for Santana, this long-term-minded plan could end up helping the Yankees down the line.
Game 121 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsMight have left Gaudin a little too long, but could you really have asked for more?
Perhaps we should start calling him K-Mac
Posted by: | CommentsColin Curtis is heading to the Arizona Fall League. The Yanks still have another six or so spots to fill, only one of whom can be a player below Double-A.
Make sure you scroll down for tonight’s game thread.
Triple-A Scranton‘s game was postponed because the place was flooded. They’re going to play two tomorrow.
Double-A Trenton
Game 1 (7-6 win over Erie in 10 innings, walk-off style) this was the completion of yesterday’s game, which was suspended due to lightning
Austin Krum & Eduardo Nunez: both 4 for 6 – Krum got picked off first … Nunez hit a walk-off double, scored another & committed a throwing error
Matt Cusick, PJ Pilittere & Justin Snyder: all 1 for 5, 1 R – Cusick drew a walk & K’ed … PJ drove in a run … Snyder K’ed
Chris Malec: 2 for 5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI
James Cooper & Marcos Vechionacci: both 1 for 5, 1 2B – Coop drove in two & K’ed … Vech drove in a run
Edwar Gonzalez: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K
Jeremy Bleich: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 3-3 GB/FB
Grant Duff: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1-3 GB/FB – he got the last out yesterday, then started back up today … Nardi Contreras says he’s been one of the hardest throwers in the upper levels this year
Kanekoa Texeira: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 2-1 GB/FB
Eric Wordekemper: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Game 121: Win or lose, your redeye awaits
Posted by: | CommentsI always wondered what ballplayers preferred in a situation like this. Take a redeye home, sleep on the plane, get some more Zs at home, and spend the day with the fam, or get a good night’s sleep tonight and fly home tomorrow? I’d opt for the former. I’ll actually be taking my own redeye tomorrow night, at around the same time the Yanks will take theirs (if they take it) tonight.
The Yanks will look to close the season series against the A’s with a win against rookie Brett Anderson, a feat they’ve accomplished twice so far this season. They hit him up for five runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings back in April, and then got him for four runs in 6.2 innings last time, on a night when Joba Chamberlain sparkled.
Anderson has been pretty good lately, though not as good as he was during his string of three straight scoreless appearances — which ended, by the way, in that July game against the Yanks. He’s had decent starts against Boston, Texas, and Kansas City, but Chicago tattooed him five days ago, to the tune of seven runs over five innings. Anderson is already over his career high of 120 innings pitched in a season, and is considerably ahead of his 105 innings from last year.
For the Yanks it will be Chad Gaudin, making his first start in pinstripes. You can read a bit on Gaudin’s history here. He’s appeared for the Bombers twice out of the bullpen, once pitching well and once pitching pretty badly. The Yanks hope to get five innings out of him tonight, at which point they’ll likely turn the ball over to Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, and Al Aceves for a tune-up before Boston. None of these guys have pitched in a few days.
As expected, Jorge gets the day off.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Jose Molina, C
And on the mound, number forty-one, Chad Gaudin.
Reforming the amateur draft
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the dust settled on Monday and the MLB amateur draft signing deadline had passed, every Major League team had blown the slot system with at least one pick. For rich teams — the Yankees come to mind — the slot signings might as well have not existed. After all, the team signed their first-round pick for $2.2 million — or 100 percent over slot — and spent $7 million on the draft.
In a way, the 2009 draft and the subsequent bonuses are going to represent the end of an era. For the last few years, as Japanese players enjoy record signings and international free agents take home millions of dollars at age 16, both the players and owners have expressed a desire to reshape the draft process. While an international draft may not be as close to reality as many baseball analysts would prefer, a draft overhaul will be a centerpiece of the 2011 labor negotiations.
In The Times today, David Waldstein jumps into the draft fray. The owners, he reports, will seek an NBA-style mandatory slotting system when the collective bargaining negotiations next roll around. He reports:
Since 2002, baseball has made recommendations to teams as a guideline to follow, but that system could be on its way out. When the current collective bargaining agreement runs out in 2011, it is expected that baseball will seek a mandatory signing system for draft picks similar to the one used by the N.B.A…
In the N.B.A., each draft position is assigned a salary figure. It can be negotiated 20 percent above or below that figure, but is now almost always 20 percent above. In the N.F.L., there is a rookie salary pool, and each team can divide up the money however it wishes, as long as it does not exceed the total.
The N.B.A. model, in place since 1995, is the most appealing because it eliminates negotiating and controls costs. Therefore, teams are not afraid to take the best available player for fear they will not be able to sign him. “Theoretically, a fixed price for each pick in the draft is a mechanism that helps restore the draft to its original purpose,” Manfred said. “Teams know what the cost of the talent is, and they just take the best player.”
In other words, those concerns over signability go right out the window, and the top players selected are going to be the best regardless of money.
For the article, Waldstein chatted with Baseball America’s Jim Callis about the reform efforts. Callis notes that the players are not expected to push back too hard on the owner’s efforts at draft reform.
From a practical perspective, I endorse a mandatory slotting system. By all accounts, the Yankees could have signed many of their draft picks in late June or early July. They were prevented from announcing the deals, however, because baseball did not want the Yankees to blow slot so early in the process. Instead of giving Slade Heathcott and other top draftees a chance to get six weeks’ play at Staten Island or in the Gulf Coast League, the Yankees were forced to sit on their hands as other deals fell into place. Reform, in other words, will benefit everyone.
Feel free to use this as your open thread tonight. Ostensibly, the topic is draft reform, but anything goes. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are on ESPN, and we’ll be back at 9:30 with the game thread.
Getting more or less what the Yanks paid for
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the common narratives around the baseball world involves the Yankees and their dollars. The Yankees overspend without regard for value, and while the team has the best record in baseball, they bought it. Or so they say. Today, J. Walter Fulbright at the recently-revived Gritty and Clutch examines whether or not the Yanks have gotten their money’s worth out of the team this year. Using salary performance numbers from Fangraphs and projected 2009 numbers, Fulbright determines that the Yankees’ 2009 value over contract will fall within the $20-$40 million, depending upon the team’s final payroll numbers. In other words, the Yankees aren’t paying their players enough.
On an individual level, A-Rod is the Yanks’ worst investment this year. He is getting paid a whopping $32 million and is projected to turn in just $16.1 million in value. Robinson Cano, with a value over contract of $13.52 million, has so far provided the team with the most bang for their buck.
Is Derek Jeter the best hitting shortstop ever?
Posted by: | CommentsThis is a guest post from the always-welcome Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Universe.
Jesse Spector of The Daily News took an interesting look at Derek Jeter‘s place in history, and came to the following conclusion:
At the very least, he’s in the conversation with Cronin and Wagner, a pair of Hall of Famers who were the best of their times. Cronin in the early part of the live ball era and Wagner in the dead ball era, both before Jackie Robinson integrated the major leagues at second base and expanded the talent pool to allow Jeter to be a part of it.
The other thing is that the game has changed in ways beyond simply who is playing it. Cronin and Wagner combined to strike out 1,027 times in their careers, while Jeter has gone down on strikes 1,440 times. But in this era, even averaging 100 strikeouts a year, Jeter rarely is criticized for having a high strikeout rate. Jeter also has the advantage of having been seen by millions of people in his career. The only people who ever saw Cronin or Wagner were either there in person or saw them on newsreels. Good luck finding them on YouTube.
In an era where everyone is always quick to describe the last thing to happen as the greatest, Jeter does deserve all the praise for breaking a record and having a place among the greatest of all time. But it’s impossible to peg him as being alone as the best when the hard facts of statistics don’t put him there convincingly, and the rest of the evidence isn’t up for review. So, at least until Jeter gets a clear numerical edge on Cronin and Wagner, he’ll have to settle for just being called one of the best, with nobody standing as the clear-cut No. 1.
This is a very thoughtful, reasonable article, and I encourage you to read it. That being said, Jeter is most definitely not the best hitting SS ever, although he is almost certainly in the top 5. The problem with judging Jeter at this point is that his career is not over, in that he has not gone through a decline phase yet, and other players are being penalized for having moved off SS while Jeter has not reached that point in his career. However, being that Derek is unlikely to play another position for an extended period, let us consider only the players who spent a considerable portion of their career at SS.
For example, players like Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, George Davis, and Alex Rodriguez would all have legitimate arguments to be ahead of Jeter, but none lasted at SS past the age of 30. This is going to be a rudimentary analysis, so correct me if I make any errors. Remember, we are considering offense only. Furthermore, a player like Luke Appling would likely be on this list if not for missing time due to WWII. Because I am not sure how to correct for that, I am just going to use career totals, which sadly leaves Appling off.
Honus Wagner: Career Numbers: .327/.391/.466 OPS+: 150 5 best (full) years by OPS+: 205, 187, 186, 176, 175
Joe Cronin: Career Numbers: .301/.390/.468 OPS+: 119 5 best years by OPS+: 138, 136, 135, 129, 127
Arky Vaughan: Career Numbers: .318/.406/.453 OPS+: 136 5 best years by OPS+: 190, 149, 148, 146, 140
Lou Boudreau: Career Numbers: .295/.380/.415 OPS+: 120 5 best years by OPS+: 164, 145, 133, 131, 128
Cal Ripken: Career Numbers: .276/.340/.447 OPS+: 112 5 best years by OPS+: 162, 145, 144, 143, 128
Derek Jeter: Career Numbers: .317/.387/.459 OPS+: 121 5 best years by OPS+: 153, 132, 128, 127, 126
One note: Looking at 5 best seasons by OPS+ does not exactly do Jeter justice, as much of his value is caught up in his consistency. His 6-10 best years are likely better than those years for most of the players on this list. That being said, I think we can reach a few conclusions.
1) Honus Wagner is the best hitting SS of all time, and Arky Vaughan is second.
2) Cal Ripken stuck around way too long, and his decline was substantial enough to knock him out of the top 5 in terms of offensive value.
3) Jeter is right there in the next group with Boudreau and Cronin, rounding out the top 5, and an argument can be made for Jeter as #3 if you place career value over peak.
Conclusion: Among players who remained at SS for the bulk of their careers, Derek Jeter is no higher than 3rd but is likely no lower than 5th (unless I missed somebody) in terms of hitting. Next time somebody tells you he would be a borderline star if he played in KC, tell him to do some research.
ed note: this was written and sent to me yesterday before either of us saw this.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
