Archive for August, 2009
Fan Confidence Poll: August 17th, 2009
Posted by: | CommentsRecord Last Week: 5-2 (38 RS, 28 RA)
Season Record: 74-44 (657 RS, 553 RA), 7.5 games up
Opponents This Week: @ Oakland (3 games), @ Boston (3 games)
Top stories from last week:
- The high of sweeping the hated Red Sox left the team feeling a little hungover on Monday, and the Jays grabbed game one of the three-game series. Back to back homers by Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada helped the Yanks to a win the next day, and then Robbie Cano walked off with a series victory on Wednesday.
- Following a cross-country flight to Seattle, the Yanks looked as fresh as ever when they pounded the Mariners to start their series. MVP candidate Mark Teixeira hit a late homerun to give the team another win the next day, and a few lucky breaks on Saturday helped the team to its third straight win. Unfortunately the Yanks couldn’t finish off the sweep yesterday and lost for just the seventh time in the second half.
- On the roster move front, Damaso Marte was excused from the team for “personal reasons,” and will be out indefinitely. Ian Kennedy’s rehab continues to go well in Tampa, and fan favorite Cody Ransom returned to the team on a minor league deal after being designated for assignment. Joba Chamberlain will enjoy a nice big eight day layoff between starts to control his innings.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Jackson wears a golden sombrero in loss
Posted by: | CommentsVia Lane Meyer, 14th rounder Graham Stoneburner has apparently agreed to terms with the Yanks. I’m of the the belief that Stoneburner has the best pure arm among Yankee draftees, and might very well be the best prospect from this draft haul behind top pick Slade Heathcott. Speaking of Heathcott, there was a report this morning that he and 2nd rounder JR Murphy have apparently agreed to terms, but the deals won’t be official until physicals are complete. That’s all I’ve seen on that. Also, it looks like 10th rounder Tyler Lyons will not sign while 5th rounder Caleb Cotham will.
Triple-A Scranton (5-2 loss to Durham)
Kevin Russo: 3 for 4, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB
Colin Curtis, Yurendell DeCaster & Reegie Corona: all 1 for 4 – Curtis K’ed & committed a fielding error … DeCaster scored a run … Corona K’ed
Austin Jackson & Juan Miranda: both 0 for 4 – Miranda K’ed three times (ouch), Jackson four times (double ouch)
Shelley Duncan, John Rodriguez & Chris Stewart: all 0 for 3 – Shelley drew a walk & K’ed twice … J-Rod walked … Stewart scored a run, drove in one & committed a throwing error
Russ Ortiz: 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 3-6 GB/FB – 58 of 86 pitches were strikes (67.4%)
Edwar Ramirez: 2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 WP, 1-1 GB/FB – 19 of 32 pitches were strikes (59.4%)
Kevin Whelan: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 0-1 GB/FB – 8 of his 10 pitches were strikes
Amaury Sanit: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-1 GB/FB – 8 of 12 pitches were strikes
Open Thread: Baby Godzilla
Posted by: | CommentsWell here’s some wonderful news … Hideki Matsui’s a dad. I don’t know how Godzilla managed to impregnate a sketch, but he did, and now he has himself a brand new baby boy. All the Yankee wives apparently threw a baby shower at the Stadium earlier this year, with Michelle Damon, Erin Robertson and Amber Sabathia doing most of the work. Congrats to Matsui and his family, we wish them the best.
Update: So I wrote all that before the game, and it turns out to be false. Lame.
Anyways, here’s your open thread for the evening. Former Yankee Javy Vazquez and the Braves take on the Phillies in the ESPN Sunday night game, and the Little League World Series is on ESPN2. Did you see that kid hit the walk-off grand slam to get his team to Williamsport? It’s the number two play here, about 1:20 in. That’s so cool. Anyway, talk about whatever you like here, just be nice to each other.
Game 118 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsFunny how games like this don’t bother as much when you have an eight game lead.
Game 118: Fister? Hardly even know her
Posted by: | CommentsSorry, couldn’t resist.
The Yanks go for the sweep today up in Seattle after riding some quality pitching (and a little bit o’ offense) to victories in the first three contests. Things just seem to be falling the Bombers’ way lately, and they’ll look to continue that today against rookie Doug Fister. They’ll send their young, controversial phenom Joba Chamerlain to finish the job.
Like Chamberlain, Fister was selected in the 2006 draft, in the seventh round by the Mariners. The 6’8″ righty wasn’t especially impressive, by the numbers, in college or the minors, posting ERAs around or above 4.00 most of the way. He did demonstrate good control in the minors, though, and likely earned his call-up due to his 0.9 walks per nine at AAA Tacoma this year. Yet that’s not without side effect. Fister has averaged over 10 walks per nine most of his minor league career, so perhaps it’s a case, as the cliche goes, of him throwing “too many” strikes.
This will be Fister’s second major league start. His first came on August 11 against the White Sox, in which he allowed no runs and one hit over six innings. That sounds impressive, but he did walk four along the way. That would seem to run contra to his minor league track record. He also had one relief appearance earlier this month, in which he allowed one hit, one walk, and struck out one in a scoreless frame.
Fister, according to the limited data in his FanGraphs page, is a fastball-changeup guy, tossing the fastball at about 88 mph and the changeup at 80. He also has a slider and a curve, which he has broken out less often. Still, even an 88 mph fastball from a dude that high can sneak up on you. We’ll see how his delivery affects a hitter’s perspective.
Joba had a hot and cold start last time out, pitching well most of the time but succumbing to the big inning. His control seemed a bit off, something we’ve seen from him this season, but he recovered to pitch a decent six innings, which set up the Yanks to take the game with a few big late hits.
What followed was a week of Joba. We discussed the Joba plan, though we don’t know exactly what it entails beyond spreading out his starts and keeping him active for the playoffs. This will be his last start for eight days, as the Yanks will use their two off-days this week to skip him completely, lining him up to pitch Tuesday at home against the Rangers. And no, the Yankees are not babying him.
Matsui’s day to day with fluid in his knees. This was inevitable at some point. Might as well DH Hinske in two out of three A’s games and give Matsui a little break before heading to Fenway.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, DH
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Jorge Posada, C
6. Nick Swisher, 1B
7. Eric Hinske, RF
8. Jerry Hairston, CF
9. Ramiro Pena, 2B
And on the mound, number sixty-two, Joba Chamberlain.
The “Joba is babied” line is tired by now
Posted by: | CommentsI’m not mincing words here: I am sick and tired of people claiming that “Joba is babied.” Honestly, I think it’s just something to complain about now that the Yankees are consistently winning. There’s no other explanation for it. Why would anyone complain that the Yankees are taking precautionary steps to protect a player whom they view as a future top-of-the-rotation performer? Why put him at obvious and considerable risk just to “push him to his limits”?
Look, I’m not saying the Verducci Rule is the be-all, end-all in this conversation. There is plenty more that goes into it, which is why the Yankees aren’t capping Joba at exactly 30 innings more than his previous season high. They’re working through a plan they devised in order to not drastically increase Joba’s workload and put him at risk for injury. That’s to the benefit of the team’s long-term outlook. It might hurt the short term, but that’s sometimes the price you have to pay to cultivate an ace.
Think about it this way. If you’re going to start lifting weights, you don’t go in and lift as much as you can the first day. You don’t lift as much as you can the second time in. If you do, you’re going to burn yourself out or get hurt. Instead, you work yourself into a routine, adding a bit more weight each time to make sure your muscles can handle the load. It works this way in many facets of life. The Yankees are simply building Joba up so he can handle the workload of a starter, rather than taking the chains off instantly.
This is a direct response to Mike Silva, who has been on the “Joba is babied” bandwagon for a while. He offers nothing but anecdotal claims to back up his position, while completely ignoring the physical realities of pitching in the modern era. As Joel Sherman noted, things have changed a bit since then.
[Bob] Gibson never faced hitters who watched their at-bats against him before and during games to pick up patterns. Gibson did not face an era of players steeped in the value of the long at-bat and drawing walks. Gibson enjoyed a larger strike zone and — at times — a higher mound. He did not use a more tightly-wound ball against lighter, whip-like bats designed to zip through the zone for more damage. And we haven’t even mentioned steroids yet.
Yet we should treat pitchers the same as we did back then? It seems a bit absurd after reading that Sherman paragraph, no?
Silva does offer one name as a comparison: Tim Lincecum, last year’s NL Cy Young winner at age 24. Why was he able to pitch 227 innings last year with little ill effect? Because he was built up to that point. He pitched through his senior year in college and racked up over 330 innings with the University of Washington. The year he was drafted, 2006, he threw 180 innings, 125 in college and another 31.2 in the minors. When the Giants called him up in 2007, he finished the year with 174 innings. This made the jump to 227 innings the next year a bit easier.
Yes, that’s a considerable jump, 47 innings from the career high he set the previous year. But it was a work up. Entering 2008, he’d had about 550 innings of pro and college ball under his belt. That’s considerable experience. Joba does not have this type of experience. According to The Baseball Cube, Joba pitched just over 200 innings at the University of Nebraska over two years. He did pitch some winter ball to augment his 89.1 innings at Nebraska in 2006, the year he was drafted, and worked up to 112 innings the next year.
Unfortunately, Joba succumbed to injury last year, limiting him to just 100 innings of work. So, entering this season, Joba has never pitched more than 127 innings in a season. In college and pro experience he had just 458 innings of experience over four years. When the Giants allowed Lincecum to pitch 227 innings in 2008, he’d thrown 551 innings over the past four years. That’s nearly 25 extra innings per year that Lincecum could build up.
Like any kind of physical work, Joba needs to work up to full capacity, rather than being allowed to just run his way into a wall. The 121.2 innings he’s pitched this year is just shy of his previous total, which came three years ago, and a decent start today could put him at or over that total. His 22 games started, 23 once he throws the first pitch today, is already the greatest number of games he’s started in his career in one season. Yet there’s still a month and a half left in the season, plus the playoffs. You really want him to go full bore in personally uncharted territory? In a pennant race? When he has so much to offer over the next four, five, six years?
To advocate allowing Joba to throw 200 innings this year is to completely eschew the long-term for the short-term. Yes, we all want Joba to keep pitching on a regular schedule this year, but physical realities render that a poor choice. You can bang the drum of Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, and all the other greats who pitched when men were men, but it does no good. The modern game is different. Babe Ruth once ended a season with more individual home runs than any team combined did. That doesn’t happen any more. In the same way, pitchers tossing 250 innings in their rookie years doesn’t happen. You can either be patient and accept it, or complain about it. In any case, the Yankees are making the right move by not letting Joba go into the gym and load up the bench press with eight 45 pound weights.
Yankee offense flashing shades of 1998
Posted by: | CommentsIn most Yankee fans’ lives, no team has been better than the 1998 iteration. Led by a stellar offense and a top-notch pitching staff, the Yankees went 114-48 and finished with a 22-game lead. While they would lose two games to the Indians in the ALCS, that would be the only post-season blip en route to a four-game sweep of the San Diego Padres in the World Series.
What really impressed the most about that team was its balanced approach. Nearly every starter had an outstanding career year, and the Yanks lead the world with 965 runs scored.
Recently, as Steve Lombardi pointed out last night, the Yanks have been on a 1998-style tear. Since the All Star Break, the Yankees are 23-6, and since June 24th, the Yanks are 36-11. As Steve notes, that’s a 124-win pace over a full slate of 162 games. That’s just insane.
Since that fateful night in Atlanta when Brian Cashman addressed the Yanks behind closed doors, the team has been killing the ball. They are hitting .290/.370/.495 as a team over the stretch and averaging 5.9 runs per game. The pitching has flashed a staff ERA of 3.66 over those 47 games.
All of this got me thinking about the 1998 team and the Yankee offense. Take a look at this chart comparing offenses:
| Player (2009) | OPS+ | VORP |
|---|---|---|
| Derek Jeter | 121 | 43.4 |
| Johnny Damon | 132 | 32.8 |
| Mark Teixeira | 145 | 36.6 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 134 | 26.0 |
| Hideki Matsui | 126 | 18.1 |
| Jorge Posada | 121 | 20.0 |
| Robinson Cano | 124 | 32.8 |
| Nick Swisher | 122 | 17.5 |
| Melky Cabrera | 97 | 8.4 |
| Team Total | 116 | |
| Player (1998) | OPS+ | VORP |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 102 | 32.0 |
| Derek Jeter | 127 | 72.3 |
| Paul O'Neill | 130 | 44.4 |
| Bernie Williams | 160 | 71.7 |
| Tino Martinez | 124 | 27.8 |
| Darryl Strawberry | 132 | 16.9 |
| Chad Curtis | 90 | 7.6 |
| Jorge Posada | 115 | 24.3 |
| Scott Brosius | 121 | 36.9 |
| Team Total | 116 |
Besides the utterly sick seasons of Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter in 1998, what sticks out are the similar OPS numbers. Right now, the 2009 Yankees are actually hitting better than the record-setting 1998 club. The current team’s run-scoring pace is off the 1998 mark, but this is a truly special offense.
Right now, of course, we have no idea how the 2009 story ends. With a 7.5-game lead over Boston and an eight-game lead over the Rangers, the second-place Wild Card team, the Yanks have a better shot to make the postseason than any other team in baseball. Cool Standings pegs their playoff odds at 98 percent while Baseball Prospectus has them at 99.1 percent. While nothing is over until it’s over, this one’s pretty close.
Hopefully, though, as shades of 1998 echo through the offense and pitching staff, the Yankees can write a similar ending. This team is certainly good enough.
Steve Serby’s Q&A with Mariano Rivera
Posted by: | CommentsSteve Serby of The NY Post sat down for a chat with the legendary Mariano Rivera, touching on everything from how long he plans to keep playing to Phil Hughes to his restaurant. Make sure you give it a read, lots of fun and interesting stuff from the Hammer of God. (h/t Patrick)


