Archive for August, 2009
Game 114: Want to get away?
Posted by: | CommentsWith the Yanks right in the middle of a 16-game stretch, the starters will get a rest over the next few days. Johnny Damon was out of the lineup on Monday, and Swisher took a seat yesterday. Today it’s Teixeira, though I’m a bit surprised it’s not A-Rod on a day game after a night game. I expect he’ll get tomorrow off.
Taking the hill for the Blue Jays is rookie Ricky Romero. The lefty started off the season strong, bringing his ERA as low as 2.85 after shutting out the Rays over eight innings on July 1. He’s been less than impressive since then, allowing 24 runs over 43 innings with a 29:20 K/BB ratio. As Mike suggested, he could be vulnerable against lefties because of his reliance on his changeup.
Romero has faced the Yankees just once this season, in his start following the Rays shutout. He pitched very well through six, allowing just a home run to Eric Hinske — who is in the lineup today, and knowing Girardi it’s probably for just that reason. He hit a snag in the seventh, though, when two singles, a force out, and a walk loaded the bases. Nick Swisher managed to plate two of those runs off Brandon League, but the Yanks were already down 7-1. Had Teixeira and A-Rod continued the rally, perhaps the Yanks could have won that game.
A.J. Burnett is coming off perhaps his best start of the season. After Jacoby Ellsbury singled to lead off the game, Burnett didn’t allow the Red Sox any more through 7.2 innings. He did walk six, but seeing as Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis each walked twice, a few of those might have been with a purpose. Other than a hiccup in Chicago, Burnett has been lights out since getting shelled in Boston back in June. As he himself said: “I’m going to go on a run, and it will be impressive.” It sure has, A.J.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Hideki Matsui, DH
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Jorge Posada, C
6. Robinson Cano, 2B
7. Nick Swisher, 1B
8. Eric Hinske, RF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
And on the mound, number thirty-four, A.J. Burnett.
Better living through reverse platooning
Posted by: | Comments
In two hours or so, the Yankees will face rookie southpaw Rickey Romero as they finish up their midweek three game series against the Jays. Romero is enjoying a brilliant first year in the bigs, placing at or near the top in just about every significant pitching statistic among rookies. He pitched into the seventh inning against the Yanks in his only other start against them this year, walking away with a win.
Typically you’ll see managers try to gain an advantage against the good lefthanders by stacking the lineup with righties, and we all know Joe Girardi can get a little platoon crazy at times. Today is a great example of when he should look at the matchups and fill his lineup card accordingly, this time by stacking lefties. That’s right, lefties.
“But Mike, I thought you’re supposed to load the lineup with right-handed hitters when you face a good left hander,” you say. In most cases, that’s probably a good idea, but not this time. Why, you ask? Well, that’s because Romero’s change-up is his bread and butter, his put away pitch. As you probably already know, pitchers use off-speed pitches such as change-ups and splitters to neutralize batters of the opposite hand because those pitches tend to fade down and away from those batters. Romero has thrown his change 22.8% of the time this year, by far the most of his secondary pitches. FanGraphs measures the pitch’s value at 2.16 runs above average per 100 pitches, which makes it the seventh best change-up in the American League, not far behind three guys named Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, and Mark Buehrle. The numbers bear this out as well, because Romero is actually doing a much better job containing righties (.250-.338-.375) than lefties (.299-.338-.522) this year. His minor league numbers also show a reverse platoon split.
Now remember, it takes two to tango. Romero being less effective against lefties than righties is only half the battle; we need to make sure that Yankee hitters can take advantage of this. Hideki Matsui – who sat when the Yanks faced Romero on July 6th – is hitting southpaws to the tune of .258-.343-.618, which is 137 OPS points better than his line against righties. Eric Hinske – who took Romero deep on July 6th – is rocking a .345-.444-.621 line against lefties. Robbie Cano (who I wouldn’t expect to sit anyway, but you never know) is .310-.341-.548 against lefties. The one lefty batter you’d consider sitting is Johnny Damon, because his OPS against lefties is .737, far removed from his Herculean .956 OPS vs righties.
So let’ see, if I was filling out the lineup card, I’d run this nine-some out there this afternoon:
Jeter, SS
Swisher, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Matsui, DH
Cano, 2B
Hinske, RF
Melky, CF
Molina, C
Jorge Posada needs to sit because it’s a day game after a night game with a cross country flight to Seattle coming up this evening. At 38years old with a 5.5 game lead in the division, there’s no reason to push him. So, you end up with three righties in there (two of whom are world class hitters you’d never consider platooning), three lefties (all in a row and all of whom can mash lefties), and three switch hitters who have at least an .844 OPS against southpaws this year. Add it all up, and you have a lineup that is hitting a combined…wait for it… .310-.399-.537 against lefties in nearly 1,000 plate appearances (986, to be exact) this year. That’s a .936 OPS. It’s like having an entire lineup of Adrian Gonzalezes.
Not only are you putting best possible lineup out there given platoon matchups, you’re also taking away one of Romero’s best weapons for a nice little stretch of the lineup. If you want to get really crazy, you could ask the switch hitters to bat lefthanded against Romero, but I would advise against that. First off, all three guys have good enough numbers against lefties as it is. Second, and more importantly, when’s the last time these guys faced a pitcher throwing from the same side of the plate? Years and years ago. There’s a comfort issue there.
It’s not often that you can gain an advantage by stacking the lineup with same-sided hitters as the pitcher, but here’s a scenario where it’s not such a bad idea. It might be a little too unconventional for Girardi’s taste, but we can only hope.
Note: Today’s lineup came out after I finished writing this post. Almost all the same names, just in a different order than my lineup above. I’m surprised Posada’s playing, but he balances out Damon. Just for the sake of completeness, this lineup is hitting .303-.392-.527 against southpaws this year (1,064 plate appearances). So they’re giving up a whopping 17 points of OPS compared to my lineup. Instead of a lineup of Adrians Gonzalezes, they have a lineup of Todd Heltons.
The Joba Chamberlain/Chad Gaudin plan
Posted by: | CommentsOn August 6, the Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin from the Padres for the ever-popular Player To Be Named Later. As post-July 31st moves go, this was a good one. The Yanks got a pitcher arguably better than Sergio Mitre and who has the ability to pitch out of the pen and the rotation.
Since then, Gaudin has appeared in exactly zero games for the Yankees. He last pitched on August 5. It was a 3.1-inning, 85-pitch appearance that wasn’t a good one. He could have relieved Joba last night; in fact, as Joe and I were watching the game from the left field bleachers with no view of the Yankee bullpen, we assumed he would. Yet, when Joe Girardi made his call to the pen, Gaudin was nowhere to be found.
Prior to the game, the Yanks had let slip some of their double secret plans for the weekend rotation and beyond. While Gaudin maintains he doesn’t know what’s happen — “[Girardi] told me I could be used in any number of ways,” he said. “So I guess that means starts, too. I just have to take it day by day.” — the Yankees seem ready to use Gaudin in place of Joba on Sunday while keeping Sergio Mitre in the rotation and using him on Saturday. Al Aceves, our darkhorse candidate for that fifth starter spot, would remain in the bullpen, ostensibly as Mitre’s or Gaudin’s shadow.
So what’s really going on here? All of a sudden, with a 5.5-game lead, the Yankees are starting to get cute with the rotation and with Joba Chamberlain. According to numerous reports from the clubhouse, the Yankees are keeping Joba on a start-by-start, need-to-know basis. They tell him when he will next be pitching and have said only that he won’t be moved to the bullpen at all this year. He will be available come the postseason, but the team will have to get creative.
It all, of course, begins and ends with Joba’s innings limit. Last year, he threw 100.1 innings, and this year, he is already at 121.2 innings pitches. The Yankees know that they can’t really extend him by much more than 50 innings this year without risking injury. That leaves them just 28.1 innings of Joba for the rest of August, September and the playoffs. Even with a strict innings limit, that’s still just four or five starts. We’ll have to see what the team has up its sleeve.
Beyond Joba, though, are the Red Sox. Joe and I speculated earlier on Tuesday night that the Yankees could be trying to line up their rotation for next weekend’s series in Boston. Ideally, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Joba would face the Red Sox. The only problem with this conspiracy theory is that, because of next Thursday’s off-day, the Yankees already have Joba, A.J. and CC lined up to face the Sox. By inserting Gaudin into the rotation on Saturday and keeping Mitre in his place, they risk upsetting that perfect storm of pitching.
In the end, I’m left a little stumped. The Yankees have options, and they seem willing to deploy them in creative and non-traditional ways. But where that leaves Joba Chamberlain and the Yanks’ 16 victories in his 22 starts is a question I just can’t answer yet. For now, I’ll trust the plan, whatever it may be.
Staten Island & GCL Yanks walk off with wins
Posted by: | CommentsTriple-A Scranton (9-0 win over Norfolk)
Kevin Russo & Shelley Duncan: both 1 for 4, 1 R – Russo K’ed & hit his second solo jack in as many days … Shelley walked & K’ed twice
Reegie Corona, Austin Jackson & Juan Miranda: all 1 for 5, 1 R – Corona drove in a run & committed a throwing error … Jackson plated a run … Miranda doubled, drove in two & K’ed twice
Cody Ransom: 3 for 4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB – quick … call him up!
Colin Curtis: 0 for 5, 3 K
Yurendell DeCaster: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 K
Chris Stewart: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI
Russ Ortiz: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 WP, 9-6 GB/FB - 50 of 93 pitches were strikes (53.8%) … hasn’t allowed a run yet
Damaso Marte: 1 IP, zeroes, 1-2 GB/FB – 8 of 12 pitches were strikes (66.7%)
Edwar Ramirez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-1 GB/FB – 9 of 15 pitches were strikes (60%)
Game 113 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsThat last thread sucked. Here’s a new one for luck.
Game 113 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsIf you stopped walking the number nine hitter, this wouldn’t happen Joba.
Game 113: Getting back on the winning path
Posted by: | CommentsNo one wants to see the Yankees lose games, but we know they won’t win ‘em all. Last night’s one-run loss was a bit disheartening, mainly because a botched double play led to two Blue Jays runs where there should have been none, or one at most. The Yankees did come back from that, but could not muster another run after Lyle Overbay sent one into the Yanks bullpen. Things will be different tonight, though. Things will be different.
For starters, the Yankees will have a more reliable arm in the mound in the form of Joba Chamberlain. His last start wasn’t quite as good as his previous three, but he battled through five innings and left with a hefty lead that the Yanks would not come close to surrendering. They could use another quality start out of him, and as long as he’s not walking the farm he should be fine.
The Blue Jays will send Scott Richmond to the mound. After the Yankees crushed him last time out to the tune of five runs in 1.2 innings he continued pitching well, but was scratched for his start in the July series, which led to him hitting the 15-day DL. He’s had one start since coming back, a three-inning, six-run (three earned) debacle against the A’s. That, combined with the Yanks’ last outing against him, makes you think the Yanks will have a field day with Richmond tonight. But allow me to quote someone knowledgeable on the matter.
“You can’t predict baseball. You just can’t.” -John Sterling
And he’ll remind you of that at least a dozen times during the game tonight, if you can endure him.
In case anyone is interested, I’ll be at the game tonight with Ben, sitting with a decent sized group. We were forced into Section 235, LF bleachers. If anyone wants to get a beer at the Cold Beer stand by third base in the second deck, email me (it’s to the right). The BlackBerry is on.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Eric Hinske, RF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
And on the mound, number sixty-two, Joba Chamberlain.
Jeter mum on next deal
Posted by: | CommentsOver the last few weeks, we’ve toasted Derek Jeter. I hosted an appreciation thread before going on vacation while Joe praised his defense and examined whether or not the Captain has been the team’s MVP.
Since then, Derek’s marvelous season has continued. He enters tonight’s action hitting .315/.384/.450 with 73 runs scored, 13 home runs, a 119 OPS+ and 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts. At age 35, when he should be slowing down, Derek is doing anything but that, and he is also flashing above average defense at short, a far improvement from his recent showings with the glove.
Over the last few months, we’ve touched upon the Derek Jeter question. He signed a lucrative 10-year $189-million contract back in February of 2001, and in a little over 13 months, he will be a 36-year-old free agent short stop.
Recently, Times scribe Jack Curry tackled the issue of Jeter’s contract status. He wrote:
As vital as Jeter has been to the organization since becoming the starter in 1996, the Yankees soon must decide how much he is worth to them. Jeter’s 10-year, $189 million contract expires after the 2010 season, but the Yankees have not formally approached him about an extension. “I haven’t even thought about it,” Jeter said…
If Jeter agreed to an extension with the Yankees, he would know what his future held beyond 2010. Knowing that he was signed after 2010 might give Jeter more security, but he did not seem worried about it. “It’s 2009,” Jeter said. “It’s not 2010.” Then Jeter paused before adding, “Or 2011.”
By mentioning 2011, Jeter was seemingly intimating that he just needs to know where he is playing before then. But it would be surprising if the Yankees let Jeter’s future remain unsettled during next season. The Yankees do not want Jeter, their team captain and a player who has helped them win four titles, to be a lame duck in 2010. It would be a chronic distraction.
Although Jeter said the Yankees had not discussed the future with him, the team has discussed Jeter’s status internally. The Yankees want to re-sign Jeter, 35, so he can collect his 3,000th hit with them and presumably retire as a Yankee. Jeter, who has 2,674 hits, cannot envision playing elsewhere.
According to Curry, the Yankees want to sign Jeter to a two-year deal. Considering, though, that Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera both received long-term deals when they were older than Jeter will be, the Yanks will probably have to give Derek at least a third year and probably more dollars than those two received.
Will a three-year, $45-million deal get the job done? Is it too much? With Jeter, the Yanks will be paying for what he has done and not necessarily what he will do. He is a big enough name, though, and a big enough draw that they can afford to do so. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see an extension in place this winter, well ahead of Jeter’s free agency.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
