Archive for August, 2009

One often-repeated criticism of the Yankees is their relative inability to beat teams over .500. They are, after all, just 24-29 against those opponents, while they’re 40-13 against their weaker counterparts. Intuitively, this seems like a bad indicator of things to come. Once you get to the playoffs those sub-.500 teams are out of the picture. How can the Yankees expect to win if they can’t beat the better teams?

As it turns out, a team’s ability to beat other winning teams doesn’t mean much, at least so far as World Series titles go. As Darren Everson of The Wall Street Journal notes, of the nine champions this decade only four have had winning records against teams over .500. “The typical profile of a World Series champion in recent times is a club that cleans up on the weak and breaks even against everyone else.” So perhaps this isn’t the problem we’re making it out to be.

As Calcaterra muses, it’s probably a coincidence. I tend to agree. Baseball is like a biathlon, starting with a six-month marathon and concluding with a three-week sprint. Teams that fare well in the marathon might not handle the sprint so well, and vice versa (the Wild Card has allowed more of the latter to get into the playoffs). Combine that with the natural streakiness of baseball and you have a recipe for a postseason which does not necessarily reflect the 162-game season we all live and die through.

Not that it stops Craig from speculating:

The article doesn’t speculate about why this might be. Coincidence is almost always the best answer when one encounters weird and/or counterintuitive stats like this, but chalking stuff up to coincidence is boring, even if accurate. Because of this, let’s concoct an untestable yet moderately-satisfying hypothesis: Due to the 162-game regular season, teams that win the World Series are, by definition, marathon winners, not sprinters, and the mark of a marathon winner is somoene who knows when to conserve energy and when to put the hammer down. This is not to say that teams roll over for good competition. Indeed, as the article notes, the winners play even the toughest competition at something just less than .500 ball, which ain’t too shabby. It’s merely to suggest that on some subconscious level, the best teams know that all wins count for the same amount during the regular season and that it simply takes less energy to beat a bad team than a good one and act accordingly.

Really, though, it’s coincidence.

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Aug
05

Heathcott seeking $2M

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Jim Callis of Baseball America updated the statuses of the twenty unsigned first round picks, mentioning that Yanks’ top pick Slade Heathcott is seeking “upwards of $2 million.” After MLB reduced their recommendations by 10% this year, slot money for the 29th overall pick became $1.107M. For all intents and purposes Heathcott and his agent are looking for 8th overall pick money even though he’s not that kind of talent.

Camp Heathcott isn’t stupid, they know the Yanks can’t afford to not to sign him and are asking for the moon. Can’t blame them.

Categories : Asides, Draft
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The Yankees had a strange night against Roy Halladay. They worked him in the first, forcing him to throw 23 pitches in a two-run inning, which included an error by the man himself (though Millar got the credit, Doc kinda just dropped the ball). It was a rare early lead against Halladay, but he wasn’t about to give up much more. He rolled through the middle innings before wearing down at the end, surrendering three solo homers, which would be the difference in a 5-3 Yankees win.

After the first inning, Doc settled in, and that might be an understatement. After throwing 23 pitches in the first, Halladay finished all nine with just 103. This included seven pitches in the second, 16 in the third, 10 in the fourth, nine in the fifth, nine in the sixth, and five in the seventh. That left him with 89 pitches headed into the eighth, and for a guy who’s topped topped out at 133 this year that’s seemingly nothing.

Halladay looked strong again to start the eighth, retiring the first two hitters on five pitches. Then came Johnny Damon, who on the fifth pitch of the at bat hit one over the right field wall. Unlike his July Fourth jack, this was no cheapie, as it landed in the Yankees bullpen, extending the lead to 3-1. Mark Teixeira followed with a shot to right on the second pitch he saw, giving the Yankees a nice cushion. They’d need it.

Phil Hughes, who had come on for Pettitte with two on and two outs in the seventh, didn’t look his sharpest last night. Each of the five Jays he faced had two strikes, but three of them managed to foul a few off — ones that a few weeks ago Hughes would have blown by them. In total the Jays had seven two-strike fouls off Hughes, including four frustrating ones by Kevin Millar, who, like Adam Lind and Jose Bautista before him, struck out looking.

Yet Hughes did allow two hits in the eighth, which was enough for Girardi to call on Mo for another four-out save. That backfired, as he allowed a two-run double to Vernon Wells after going down 3-0 on him. That made it a one-run game, something you just don’t expect when staking Hughes and Mo to a three-run lead. Hideki Matsui made it a bit more comfortable with a first-pitch homer off Halladay in the ninth, but Mo made it interesting again in the ninth, putting men on first and third before closing the door.

Andy Pettitte did his job, though he seemed shaky at times. He didn’t throw a healthy number of strikes — 103 pitches, 57 strikes. It almost caught up to him in the fourth, when a single and two walks loaded the bases. That ended after a sac fly and a grounder to short, but it certainly cast some doubt on Pettitte’s ability to hold the lead. Yet he held on strong, pitching well until putting two runners on in the seventh, including a walk of Rod Barajas.

Another notable achievement for Pettitte was his six strikeouts in 6.2 IP. It marks the ninth time this season he’s struck out six or more. While his K rate isn’t quite where it was last year, it’s still at a good level for a 37-year-old who induces a lot of contact. Pettite has certainly gotten the job done lately, though, helping alleviate concerns about the back end of the rotation. Those concerns aren’t completely erased, of course, but a fairly effective Pettitte helps tremendously.

While this didn’t feel like an automatic loss before it started, the chances weren’t that great with Halladay on the mound. But the Yankees struck when they needed it most and prevailed despite a tough ending to the game. The Yanks guarantee their lead in the AL East at least one more day. That’s good news, as Sergio Mitre takes the mound tonight.

Categories : Game Stories
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Kyle Anson was placed on the disabled list. Those Double-A catchers are dropping like flies. Meanwhile, that nasty little rumor going around about Dellin Betances needing Tommy John surgery is false. PeteAbe confirmed it. He’s out with soreness and should start throwing next week.

Triple-A Scranton (6-4 loss to Pawtucket)
Ramiro Pena: 0 for 5, 1 K – how’s 2 for his last 27 (.074) sound?
Colin Curtis: 1 for 5, 2 K
Austin Jackson: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 K, 1 SB
Shelley Duncan & Yurendell DeCaster: both 0 for 2, 2 BB – Shelley scored twice
Juan Miranda: 1 for 2, 1 R, 2 BB – 7 for his last 15 (.467)
John Rodriguez: 4 for 4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI - all he does is hit
Chris Stewart: 0 for 4
Doug Bernier: 0 for 3, 1 K, 1 E (throwing)
Ivan Nova: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 9-5 GB/FB – 47 of 80 pitches were strikes (58.8%) … 38 baserunners & 19 ER allowed in his last 20.2 IP
Damaso Marte: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 10 of 21 pitches were strikes (47.6%) … 9-3 K/BB ratio in 9 rehab IP
Kevin Whelan: 0.2 IP, 0 H. 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 10 of 22 pitches were strikes (45.5%) … 7 BB in his last 1.2 IP
Amaury Sanit: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2-1 GB/FB – 15 of 25 pitches were strikes (60%)

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Categories : Down on the Farm
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Aug
04

Game 106 Spillover Thread

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More runs plsthxbye.

Categories : Game Threads
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Aug
04

Game 106: Halladay again

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I’ve pretty much given up hope of the Yankees ever missing Roy Halladay in a series, even if it is only two games long. He pitches the opener tonight, and will probably pitch the opener of the next series, Monday at Yankee Stadium. His normal rest would have him on Sunday, but I’d be willing to bet that Cito keeps everyone in turn so Doc can face the Yanks.

Halladay is in the midst of another Halladay-esque season. Even with a short stint on the DL he’s pitched 148 innings, including four complete games, and leads the league in K/BB ratio and BB/9. He’s right up there in WHIP, too, sitting at 1.074. Everything looks about the same as last year, which is to say that it puts Halladay near or at the top of the league overall. One change is in his strike percentage. It’s up slightly this year, at 69 percent over 67 percent last year, but the manner in which he’s gotten the strikes is a bit different. This year he’s getting fewer foul ball strikes and more strikes looking. That’s gotta be a good thing. He’s also thrown 68 percent first-pitch strikes, up from 63 percent last year.

This will be the third time this season the Yankees will face Hallady. He dominated them the first time, tossing a complete game and allowing just one run. The Yankees then rattled off nine straight wins. His next appearance was on July 4th at Yankee Stadium, and Doc didn’t quite prevail there, allowing five runs over 7 IP. The killer was a Johnny Damon three-run homer, a seeming Yankee Stadium Special. It led to an eventual 6-5 Yankees victory.

While Doc won’t be giving up any cheapie homers tonight, he also won’t be facing the same opponent. Chien-Ming Wang started for the Yanks on July 4, and that turned out to be his last start of 2009, as he left the game with a shoulder injury which would eventually require surgery. This time the Yankees send out Andy Pettitte. He pitched fairly well last time at the Rogers Centre, allowing two runs, one earned, over six innings, though he did throw a lot of pitches. On July 6th at the Stadium, the Blue Jays bombed Pettitte for six runs in six innings.

Over his career Pettitte has thrown 124 innings at the Rogers Centre, still referred to as SkyDome on Baseball-Reference. In that span he’s amassed a 3.92 ERA, allowing the Jays a .718 OPS. That’s not bad, but it won’t get the job done tonight. The Yankees need Pettitte at the top of his game if they’re going to eke this one out. The good news is that Scott Rolen, one of the Blue Jays’ top offensive contributors this season, is no longer with the team. Taking his place in the cleanup spot is Kevin Millar, who isn’t nearly as good, though he has a penchant for hitting well against the Yanks.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez. 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Eric Hinske, RF

And on the mound, number forty-six, Andy Pettitte.

Categories : Game Threads
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Aug
04

Kennedy throws off “mini-mound”

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Mini-mound? That’s a new one to me, but apparently it’s just a mound that’s only 5-inches high. Anyway, Ian Kennedy threw 25 pitches off one today, and plans to do it again on Friday. “Another hurdle cleared,” Kennedy said. “I felt really good. I’m happy with that. I’m happy with the progress. I’m still on schedule and haven’t had any problems yet. ” IPK also said that he saw a doctor last week and that everything is going well. He hopes to get into a game before the minor league season ends, and will head to the Puerto Rican Winter League one way of the other.

Imagine if he ends up taking Mitre’s place in September. That would be something.

Categories : Asides, Injuries
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Aug
04

A-Rod: Yankees vs. Mariners

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Buried at the bottom of this piece from SI’s Tom Verducci is an interesting little note: Alex Rodriguez now has more at-bats with the Yankees than he did with the Mariners. That kind of surprised me at first because it seems like Alex was with the Mariners for an eternity, but yep, he had 3,126 official at-bats with them and right now sits at 3,136 with the Yanks. He must have passed his Seattle total sometime during Saturday’s game (I’m guessing, I didn’t bother to look). Plate appearances is a bit of a different story, because A-Rod has almost two hundred more of those with the Bombers than he did in the Great Northwest (197 to be exact). He’s also appeared in 51 more games with the Yanks than M’s, but I digress.

Since he’s officially had more at-bats with the Yanks than any other team, let’s take a second to look at how Alex’s stats compare with the two clubs.

With Seattle: .309-.374-.561, 17.5 K%, .252 IsoP, .335 BABIP
With New York: .299-.400-.568, 18.9 K%, .269 IsoP, .322 BABIP

There’s a rather significant difference in his counting stats like homers and RBI and stuff like that because he was playing his games in different parks with different teams and different lineups in different divisions, and frankly it was a different era as well (pre-PED testing vs. post). Overall, A-Rod’s been basically the same player. He’s hitting for slightly more power now, which is what you’d expect considering he’s older and spent most of his prime-aged seasons with the Yanks. He’s also sacrificed 10 pts of batting avg for 24 pts of on-base percentage, a tradeoff I’ll take every day of the week.

The biggest difference is that Alex’s numbers with the Yanks are coming from third base, whereas with the Mariners he was manning the middle infield. Those numbers coming from a shortstop aren’t just great, they’re historically great.

The question is this: let’s say A-Rod retired right now, today, for whatever reason. What hat does he wear in the Hall of Fame? All the PED stuff is irrelevant here, this is just a hypothetical. A-Rod’s production warrants unanimous selection into the Hall of Fame if you ask me. What do you think, Yankee cap or Mariner cap? Discuss.

Categories : Analysis
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While we wait for Yankee baseball following the long off-day, check out this piece by Sky Andrecheck at The Baseball Analysts. We know it’s good for batters to work deep counts for several reasons, including get the pitcher out of the game earlier and increasing the likelihood that he’ll make a mistake and leave a pitch out over the plate, but Sky shows that after fouling a few pitches off with a full count, the hitter does gain an advantage as evidenced by their triple-slash performance. However that advantage doesn’t last forever, apparently. Check it out, it’s a short but interesting read.

Categories : Asides
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One major difference between this season and last is the Yankees improved defense. It seems that Robinson Cano is making plays on everything near him. Derek Jeter, as we’ve discussed, is experiencing a defensive renaissance. But most importantly, the Yankees have a real first baseman in Mark Teixeira. It seems that every night he makes a spectacular play, one that his predecessor, Jason Giambi, would not make. As I’ve said more times than I can count this season, it feels great to have a real first baseman.

In discussing the infield defense, many have lauded Teixeira for his ability to scoop bad throws and prevent throwing errors. That can be huge, as it helps out pitchers and helps the team get out of innings quicker. It saves an unknown number of runs, because who knows what happens if that runner is safe and the pitcher is throwing with men on. Teixeira, we can see, is excellent at scooping balls out of the dirt. Yet for all his defensive shortcomings, Giambi was rather proficient at this, too.

Just how proficient was he? John Dewan, publisher of The Fielding Bible, takes a look. In the new volume of TFB, he discusses Defensive Misplays and Good Fielding Plays. Once of those Good Fielding Plays is scooping a ball out of the dirt, so we can see how Giambi and Teixeira rate.

The numbers are a bit skewed, because Tex plays first far more than Giambi did during his tenure in New York. Based on the numbers, Tex has scooped 22 throws in 95 games started. Last year Giambi picked 29 in 112 games started. The difference is marginal: 0.23 scoops per game for Tex, 0.26 for Giambi. So really, there’s not that much of a difference in their abilities to scoop balls out of the dirt. Then again, this data assumes a few things, and then leaves out a few things.

First, we’re assuming that they would both face the same number of opportunities per game. This might or might not be true. Over the course of a 162-game season one would think that the data would even out, but that’s not always the case. For instance, if Jeter’s range was poorer while Giambi was around, he might have a hard time getting to a ball, thereby rushing the throw and forcing a scoop. This would give more opportunities to Giambi. So while he would have a slightly larger number of scoops total, he would probably have a worse percentage.

In fact, this does leave out missed scoops, data I’m sure is available with Defensive Misplays. How many balls did Giambi fail to scoop vs. Teixeira? Even more importantly, how many times did a throw take Giambi off the bag, where Teixeira would have stayed on? These are tough questions to answer even with available data. We know Giambi wasn’t a bad scooper, but it seems that Teixeira is a bit better.

Where Tex is most proficient, of course, is fielding grounders. As Dewan notes, Tex has saved his team 18 runs over the past two years by fielding grounders, while Giambi has cost his team that many runs, a 36-run swing. That’s almost four wins right there, which is significant because it’s just one aspect of defense. I don’t think many would argue that Tex’s ability to field grounders might bring the Yanks an additional two wins over the course of the season.

Categories : Defense
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