Archive for August, 2009

Aug
04

Derek Jeter for MVP

Posted by: | Comments (125)

This is a guest post by Rebecca from This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes.

His .322 average leads all Yankees, and small sample size doesn’t apply — only one other player has amassed more plate appearances this season.

His .396 OBP is by far the highest among starters.

Okay, so the .456 slugging is comparatively low, and brings down his OPS, but Derek Jeter isn’t Derek Jeter because he hits for tremendous power.

Jeter’s 132 hits lead the Yankees, and only Robinson Canó, at 126, is anywhere close.

He’s stolen 19 bases and only been caught four times — the 19 are more than he stole in the entire years of 2007 and 2008.

We’ve been saying that 2009 has been a Jeterian Renaissance, but this is not just a Renaissance. This is the type of season that an MVP has, and in a league where no one’s doing anything Pujols-like, Jeter deserves some serious consideration.

It’s not just Jeter’s offensive numbers, either.

Jeter’s .984 fielding percentage is the best he’s had since 1998. 1998. There are three Yankees with a UZR that is positive — both center fielders and Jeter. Say what you want about UZR as a statistic, but the statistics bear it out: 2009 is one of Jeter’s best defensive seasons.

In a Major League career that started fifteen years ago, that says quite a bit.

Of course, there are the intangibles, too.

He’s batting a Cabrera-like (yes, I went there) .375/.435/.518/.953 in situations described as “Close and Late”, and his highest BA comes in games that have a difference of one run or less.

It’s kind of funny, right now, to think that at the beginning of the season we were, largely to a man, arguing that Jeter should bat lead-off to avoid grounding into so many double plays, as he seemed to do all of last year.

Some of us cast a wary eye towards 2010 — including 2009 Baseball Prospectus, which, in its write up argued that by the end of 2010 Jeter’s defense wouldn’t play in the infield and his bat wouldn’t play anywhere else.

I’m not quite sure anyone quite expected this.

By WAR, Jeter is the fifth best position player, and trails only Ben Zobrist (?!) in the American League in 2009.

The best part, of course, is that Jeter is doing all of this not just for a contending team, but for one that has one of the best records in all of baseball. Sure, the Angels have gone crazy again, but as of tonight, only the Dodgers have more wins than the Yankees.

So for all the muck about swinging at the first pitch, now would seem a good time to attempt to start to campaign for Jeter to get that MVP award….

Categories : Players
Comments (125)

With the trade deadline behind us, teams are limited in the players they can acquire. Rather than having unrestricted trading access with the other 29 clubs, each team is restricted to players who clear waivers, or on whom they make a claim. Yankees GM Brian Cashman harkens back to earlier in this decade, when he, using the Yankees financial might, put in claims on nearly everyone in order to block trades to rivals. This year, with many teams at or above their target payroll, putting in a claim leaves a team at risk of absorbing a poor contract.

Cashman says he expects more activity in August this year than in years past, but considering the lay of the land, that might not be the case. As it stands the Red Sox are behind the Yankees in the standings, so they have a chance to put in a claim first. When the Jays place Roy Halladay on waivers — and they certainly will — the Sox will almost certainly put in a claim. Even then, a team like Texas or Detroit might place their claim first, effectively cutting out the Sox. The pickings could be slim by the time it gets to the Yanks and Sox.

Still, there are some extraordinarily bad contracts out there and not even the Sox, with their relatively low payroll, will dare put in a claim. That could open the negotiating table for the Yankees to acquire that fifth starter they sought last week. Problem is, few if any of the potential options do the Yankees much good. Jon Heyman breaks down the players who will clear and who might clear. He adds those who won’t clear but could be dealt to a claiming team, but the Yankees aren’t in a position to be dealing with those players.

The pitchers include Bronson Arroyo, to whom we should just say no; Aaron Harang, who is pitching like a No. 5 but is being paid like a No. 2; Miguel Batista, who is 38 (!!), hasn’t started a game this year, is walking 5.2 per nine innings, and despite the M’s stellar defense has allowed 10.1 hits per nine; Juan Cruz, who is pitching horribly (and people wanted to kill Cashman in April for not signing him); and Ron Mahay, whose walks would make us want to throw a brick through the TV.

There are still some who could clear waivers. With the Red Sox behind the Yankees in the standings, it’s not likely. As Heyman writes, “The Yankees need a No. 5 starter, and the Red Sox know it.” Yet, let’s not forget that the Red Sox could use another starter themselves. The question, of course, is of whether they’d jettison Brad Penny or John Smoltz for a better option. The further question is of whether any of the might-clear names represent any kind of significant upgrade.

Of the players who might clear waivers, Heyman calls Jon Garland dependably mediocre, while I call him dependably crappy — his K rate continues to decline despite a move to the sissy league; Doug Davis, who leads the NL in walks — and the Yankees already have the AL leader; and Gil Meche, who like Harang is pitching like a No. 5 but is being paid like a No. 2. It doesn’t help that Meche hasn’t pitched a game since July 11 and has basically been pitching hurt to some degree all season. Oh, and don’t forget Uncle Ronny Villone, whose 1:1 K/BB ratio just isn’t welcome back in New York.

With Sergio Mitre holding down the fifth spot, there is plenty of room to improve. But look at the names above. Do any of them represent a true upgrade? Perhaps marginal, but even then you have to factor in the cost to acquire the player. At that point even a marginal upgrade might turn into a long-term downgrade. All that just for a few runs saved. Given what we know about Brian Cashman’s M.O., it’s safe to say that he’ll stay away from this crop.

The best thing that could happen to the Yankees is for some improvement in the bullpen. If Brian Bruney finally regains his form (and he was pretty good in the first 1.1 innings he pitched on Saturday), if Mark Melancon keeps throwing like he has his last three times out, if Damaso Marte can come back strong, and if Al Aceves is really only suffering from shoulder fatigue, the Yanks will have a strong bullpen even without Phil Hughes. While some think it’s too risky to put him back in the rotation after a long stint in the pen, he’s clearly their best option to fill the fifth starter hole. He can always return to the bullpen for the playoffs (though at that point you might see Joba in the pen and Phil in the rotation).

That’s a lot that has to go right, though, including the transition of Hughes back to the rotation. It’s not at all likely, and the Yankees face the prospect of Sergio Mitre or, gasp, Kei Igawa filling the fifth spot in their rotation for the rest of the year. There’s always the Jason Hirsh experiment, but that’s just as unlikely as the above scenarios. The Yankees are not in an easy spot with their pitching staff right now. They can, however, take solace in knowing that every other team in the AL has similar problems. It’s just a matter of whose are more exposed down the stretch. The above-mentioned players aren’t going to turn it around for any staff.

Comments (129)
Aug
03

Kroenke strong in latest spot start

Posted by: | Comments (62)

Josh Towers was named International League Pitcher of the Week, while David Adams and Adam Warren were named Hitter and Pitcher of the Week in their respective leagues. Paul Bush also ended up on the disabled list with who knows what.

Triple-A Scranton (2-1 win over Pawtucket)
Ramiro Pena: 1 for 2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 CS
Colin Curtis, John Rodriguez & Eric Duncan: all 0 for 3 – Curtis drew a walk & K’ed … J-Rod walked … Duncan K’ed
Austin Jackson: 0 for 4, 1 K – 7 for his last 34 (.206) … another game or two like this, and his avg will drop below .300
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB
Juan Miranda: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – 6 for his last 13 (.462)
Yurendell DeCaster: 1 for 3, 1 BB, 1 E (fielding)
Frankie Cervelli: 0 for 2, 1 BB
Zach Kroenke: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 7-5 GB/FB – 42 of 64 pitches were strikes (65.6%)
Mike Dunn: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0-1 GB/FB – 19 of 33 pitches were strikes (57.6%)
Edwar Ramirez: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-2 GB/FB – 12 of 15 pitches were strikes (80%)
Jon Albaladejo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GB.FB - 11 of 20 pitches were strikes (55%)

Read More→

Categories : Down on the Farm
Comments (62)

A couple of weeks ago we took a look at which players have been most valuable to the Yankees in terms of wins over replacement, or WAR. We’ve been using that stat for a while now, so I’m sure you’re famiiar with it. Although we’re not quite at the two-thirds point of the season, I needed an open thread topic figured now was a good time for part two of this three part series since the team won’t have another off day for two weeks or so.

Last time around, CC Sabathia and Derek Jeter were the most valuable pitcher and position player on the team, and not much has changed. Let’s take a look, starting with the arms.

Top Five Pitchers

  1. CC Sabathia, 3.5 WAR
  2. AJ Burnett, 1.9
  3. Andy Pettitte, 1.9
  4. Joba Chamberlain, 1.5
  5. Mariano Rivera, 1.5

For the sake of comparison, Tim Lincecum (6.6) and Zack Greinke (6.3) are far and away the most valuable pitchers in the game this year while Sabathia checks in at #13. It’s no surprise the team’s four regular starters top the list because a big chunk of their value comes from all the innings they soak up. The superhuman Mariano Rivera is just that damn good, trailing only a handful of other relievers. You can see the rest of the pitchers here, but Phil Hughes is only other member of the staff worth more than one win.

Top Five Position Players

  1. Derek Jeter, 4.5
  2. Mark Teixeira, 3.3
  3. Robinson Cano, 2.5
  4. Alex Rodriguez, 2.3
  5. Jorge Posada, 2.2

The four most valuable position players in the game this season are Chase Utley (5.5), Ben Zobrist (5.4), Albert Pujols (5.2), and Hanley Ramirez (5.0), with Joe Mauer (4.6) a distant fifth. Derek Jeter check in as the sixth most valuable position player in the game thanks not only to his offensive production at a premium position, but also because of his absurdly awesome defense. Yeah, I said defense. Only Jack Wilson, JJ Hardy, and Elvis Andrus have been better at short, and I don’t think any of us expected that coming in to the year.

Jeter is a legitimate MVP candidate this year, and a strong finish backed by a late September playoff push could be enough to get him the first MVP trophy in his otherwise decorated carrier. The campaign starts now, get behind it.

* * *

Use this as your open thread for the night. The Mets are finishing up their series with the Diamondbacks, while the Cubs and Red are on ESPN. Talk about whatever you like here, just be cool to each other.

Categories : Analysis, Open Thread
Comments (211)
Aug
03

Olney turns around on A-Rod

Posted by: | Comments (33)

Remember in June when A-Rod was slumping pretty hardcore? Buster Olney wrote a blog post on him, noting how slow and old he looks. Oh, and how a lack of PEDs might hurt him going forward. Of course, he foisted all of the criticism on baseball writers’ best friends: anonymous scouts. Yet all on his own, Olney wrote: “The question is this: Is Rodriguez, a month from his 34th birthday, much less of a player because he presumably no longer takes performance-enhancing drugs?” In a recent SportsNation chat, Michael from Maryland asked Olney about A-Rod. Says Buster: “Give him credit — he’s worked through all the physical and emotional stuff, and is back to being among the most dangerous hitters in the game.” So I guess the answer to Olney’s original question is no. As Ben noted in conclusion, Olney should know better. At least he’s not trying to make an excuse for his poor foresight.

Thanks to Tampa Yankee for sending this in.

Categories : Asides
Comments (33)

Old Stadium demolition

Tom Kaminski of WCBS 880 took a bunch of aerial photos of the ongoing demolition at the Old Yankee Stadium this morning. The seats are all gone as are most of the field level sections, but the dugout is still intact. Head on over and check the pictures out, just make sure no one at work will laugh at you if you cry.

(h/t Sliding Into Home)

Categories : Yankee Stadium
Comments (25)
Aug
03

Going After The King

Posted by: | Comments (135)

Felix HernandezAs the trade deadline approached late last week, we heard that the Yankees were connected to the usual suspects: Jarrod Washburn, Bronson Arroyo, Brian Bannister, middling guys like that to fill out the back of the rotation. But then something crazy hit the blogosphere on deadline day … the Mariners were actually listening to offers for Felix Hernandez. The next day we learned that Brian Cashman and the Yankees were one of the teams to give Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik a call about his young ace, but ultimately no deal went down. Theo Epstein sure made a valiant effort, though.

It’s hard to think of many pitchers in baseball with more trade value than King Felix. There’s that kid in San Francisco doing amazing things, but he’s almost two full years older than Hernandez. Zach Greinke is two-and-a-half years older, but is locked up below market value for the next four years. Jon Lester? Two years older. Justin Verlander? Three years older. Heck, Joba Chamberlain? He’s eight months older. Phil Hughes is just two months younger than the King, but far less established.

We’re talking about the Justin Upton of pitchers here, a kid who’s already one of the best players in the game at his position but still has his best years ahead of him. He ranks in the top ten in innings pitched (152.1), FIP (3.11), strikeouts (141), and wins over replacement (4.3) this year, and is only going to get better as he enters his prime years. Scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season, when he’ll be just 25-yrs old, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Hernandez will become the highest paid pitcher in history. If things go his way, he’s got a chance at being the first pitcher to crack that $200M plateau.

Since we’re talking about the best young pitcher to come along in years, possibly decades, it would have taken a tremendous package to acquire him before the deadline. We’re talking about a Herschel Walker type of trade for the Mariners, one that sets them up at multiple positions for years. What could the Yankees have offered?

Joba Chamberlain? he’s yours
Phil Hughes? sure thing
Jesus Montero? no problem
Austin Jackson? free shipping
High upside, low level prospect like Arodys Vizcaino? you can have two

That’s the kind of package we’re talking about; several young players in their pre-arbitration years, and I don’t mean the Brett Gardners and Ramiro Penas of the world. A package of Zach McAllister, Austin Romine, and Mark Melancon doesn’t even get you invited to the party. If a team like Texas wanted to get in on the action, they’d have to offer up guys like Derek Holland, Justin Smoak, Elvis Andrus, and more. It’s an extraordinary deal that would have made a Roy Halladay trade look like the Joe Blanton trade, given how young and dominant Felix is.

The real question is this: Are you willing to give all that up? Having to part with Joba and Hughes in the same package is really something you want to avoid at all costs, but if you’re going to do it, Felix Hernandez is the kind of guy you do it for. Considering his tremendous performance, about the only concern you can have about Felix is the workload he’s been run through. He’s thrown 1,056 innings since his 18th birthday, and is on pace to throw over 190 innings for the fourth straight year. He’s never been Verducci’d though, with his biggest increase in innings from year to the next coming in ’04-’05, when he went up just 23 IP.

For the sake of this post, I ran Felix Hernandez through Beyond the Box Score’s trade calculator, which says King Felix has a trade value of $38.1M based on my almost arbitrary WAR predictions. Victor Wang’s research says that Montero and Jackson combine for $59.9M in value (one top-10 hitting prospect, one 26-50 hitter), while a low level arm like Arodys adds another $1.9M. Joba’s trade value comes in at $50.6M while Phil Hughes’ registers at $46M.  However, those values represent best case scenarios based on my WAR assumptions, which are far from perfect. The total value of that package is $158.4M, but we have to factor in attrition rate. Felix’s value represents just under 25% of the package’s value, but I honestly have no idea if that is an appropriate flame out factor. This is all just food for thought, and for all I know I just wasted 15 minutes of my time calculating that stuff.

I know we have plenty of Felix fans out there, but would you be willing to give up the package of young players required to obtain him? It’s a lot of eggs to put in one basket, that’s for sure. Remember, Hernandez already turned the Yankees down for the Mariners as an amateur even though the Yanks (and Braves) offered more money, so it’s no slam dunk that he signs an extension to keep him in pinstripes past 2011.

Photo Credit: The Seattle Times

Categories : Players
Comments (135)

This is a guest post by Travis G. of Pinstripe Alley.

As I often do, I was thinking about baseball one day, specifically sluggers, and wondered if the act of slugging (hitting a tape-measure homerun) was any better than a run-of-the-mill homer.

I endeavored to study this. HitTracker was invaluable, as it measures the distance of every homerun hit; and BRef of course, because it compiles homerun logs for every player: the inning, the pitcher, etc.

So I looked at how pitchers fared after the tape-measure shots (“no-doubt”) as compared to everything else (“plenty” and “just enough” as determined by HitTracker). Would pitchers fare worse after a humiliating longball? Would there be any kind of ‘rattle effect’?

ERA and WHIP were the two stats I used to determine if pitchers improved or regressed after a homerun. I know they’re not the end-all, be-all of pitching stats, but they’re easy to figure out and are readily available in the game logs/box scores (as opposed to FIP or LD%).

Since I knew it would take many hours of research, I studied only three players, but was sure to take one each from a hitter’s park, a neutral park and a pitcher’s park. After all, if I only studied Mark Teixeira, he would have a greater percentage of ‘no-doubters’ than most other hitters because Yankee Stadium is rather conducive to ‘no-doubters’ (defined as: “the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence”; so a 370 ft. shot to rightfield in Yankee Stadium may be a no-doubter, yet a 380 ft. shot in Petco wouldn’t).

The three players were Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder (in the neutral Miller Park) and Adrian Gonzalez (in the pitcher’s paradise known as Petco). The study included all homeruns through July 20.

The number of no-doubters was directly linked to the ballpark: Tex had the most, followed by Fielder and then A-Gon. I didn’t go purely by distance because I was more interested in any kind of rattle effect a homer that appeared long would have on a pitcher. A longball that gets out by plenty in rightfield can appear longer than a ball that just clears the centerfield fence.

There were 21 no-doubters hit by the three sluggers and 50 normal homers.

The results

After a normal homer was hit, pitchers pitched to a 4.53 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. And now for the surprise: after a no-doubt’ homer was hit, pitchers actually fared better: 4.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. That was the opposite conclusion I expected. The results are even more pronounced when measuring by distance: 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP after 400 ft. (or longer) shots, 4.56 and 1.56 after 399 ft. (or shorter) shots.

Now I know half a season’s stats from three hitters isn’t the biggest sample size, but I hope to increase the data field in the future and perhaps come to a more definitive conclusion. But still, it is intriguing and points to the possibility that pitchers bear down after a humiliating homer as opposed to getting rattled.

Other interesting tidbits

Pitchers were immediately pulled after 14% of no-doubt homers; on all other homers just 4% of the time. What value that has, I’m not sure.

For both types of homers (no-doubt and all others), the average inning of occurrence was the same: two outs into the fifth inning (4.7). Perhaps that is the most frequent time at which starters begin to tire (though the data includes relief innings).

Categories : Analysis
Comments (28)

Record Last Week: 3-4 (38 RS, 44 RA)
Season Record: 63-42 (581 RS, 510 RA), 0.5 games up
Opponents This Week: @ Toronto (2 games), vs. Boston (4 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (91)

For the first three games of this series, we’ve harped on the Yankees inability to hit with runners in scoring position. On Friday and Saturday they put plenty of runners on, but couldn’t bring them around. That changed on Sunday, as they had six hits in 17 at bats with ducks on the pond. The White Sox, who had done a great job in those situations, went 2 for 14. It was the difference as the Yankees avoided the sweep, beating Mark Buehrle and the Sox 8-5.

While the whole offense, including newcomer Jerry Hairston, hit well, Melky Cabrera was the game’s first star. The big story was his cycle, capped off by a triple in the ninth inning. It was the timing and nature of his hits that put the Yankees over the top. He started their scoring with a three-run homer in the second. Next was a double to lead off the fourth, leading to the Yanks first run of that inning. He then picked up a single with A-Rod standing on second base, extending the Yankees lead to 6-4. Finally was his triple with none on and one out in the ninth, leading to an insurance run to make up for the one the Sox scored in the eighth.

Overall Melky was 4 for 5, scoring three and driving in four. In two at bats with the bases empty he hit a double and triple, thereby putting himself into scoring position, both times with fewer than two outs. In three at bats with runners in scoring position he went 2 for 3, driving in his four runs. His one failure was a groundout to second with bases loaded and two outs. To harp on that one at bat, though, would be to diminish an excellent game by Melky. He truly was the difference between salvation and a sweep.

While we had some concerns about Melky playing full-time with Brett Gardner injured, the Melk man has really stepped up of late. Since Gardner’s thumb injury on July 25, Melky has gone 10 for 28 with three doubles, a triple, and two homers. His on base percentage has been .438. We’ve seen flashes from Melky this season, and it’s so easy to forget how young he is. We’ve been especially hard on Melky at RAB, and would like nothing more than to be proven wrong. Melky has had some hot stretches this season that make me think that he might be on the brink. His emergence could mean a lot to the Yankees not only this season but next, when the Yankees have fewer in-house options.

As for CC Sabathia, it wasn’t quite the start the Yankees had hoped for. He struggled through the first three innings, throwing 58 pitches and allowing four runs on seven hits, including back to back home runs by Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome — both to the opposite field. He settled down after that, throwing just 42 pitches in the next four innings plus one batter, allowing just two more baserunners through the seventh.

Joe Girardi sent out CC for the eighth with 99 pitches already under his belt, and No. 100 tuned into a Gordon Beckham double. Phil Hughes came in to strike out two and walk one, and Mariano Rivera came in from the bullpen to allow a run-scoring hit, saddling Sabathia with five runs on the afternoon, plus the final out of the inning. He closed the door in the ninth, finishing off a much-needed Yankees victory.

Here’s a little crazy stat. CC threw 100 pitches, 71 for strikes. Through three CC threw 57 pitches, 37 for strikes. Over the next four-plus innings, he threw 43 pitches, 34 for strikes. As PeteAbe chronicles, the big man had had enough. “That’s all they get,” he said to his catcher. CC certainly stepped up his game after the third. That’s what the Yanks need from him going forward, just in all of his innings. It’s going to be a long pennant race, and the Yanks would do well to have their ace at his strongest.

What impressed me most was how the Yankees exploited the hole between short and third. They put plenty of balls in play to the left side, and oftentimes it paid off. It looked like Kevin Long devised a game plan, and the Yanks stuck with it. Whatever it was it worked, as the Yankees knocked Buehrle out after 4.1 innings. He left having allowed seven runs on 12 hits and without striking out a single Yankee. Also impressive: the Yankees singled Buehrle to death. Of the 12 Yankee hits off him, 10 were singles. The only extra base hits were a double and a homer by, who else, Melky.

The win keeps the Yanks a half game out in front of the Red Sox, but later this week that difference won’t matter much. After a day off tomorrow they have two up in Toronto, followed by a big four-game set at the Stadium over the weekend. Let’s hope this weekend was just a three-game hiccup, just like out in LA.

Categories : Game Stories
Comments (49)