Archive for August, 2009
Game 128: Yanks should employ same strategy against Buehrle
Posted by: | CommentsLast time the Yankees faced Mark Buehrle they had a plan. The Bombers touched him for 12 hits on August 2, most of them grounders between short and third. That could have been coincidence, but more than likely, considering its frequency, it was a design by Kevin Long. It worked, as the Yanks mustered seven runs off the ChiSox ace and knocked him out after 4.1 innings.
Since he pitched his no-hitter on July 23, Buehrle has gone down hill. He did spin a gem against Seattle on August 12, eight innings of shutout ball, but other than that he’s been downright terrible. In his last two starts he’s allowed four runs over six innings to the freaking Royals, striking out zero, and five runs over 5.1 innings to the Orioles. His ERA still sits at 3.92, but it’s been quite inflated lately.
Buehrle has tossed an even 50 innings in his career against the Yankees, allowing 41 runs, 39 earned. There is no team he has fared worse against in his career — save for a paltry 11-inning sample against the Giants. While he gives other teams fits, especially the division rival Tigers, against whom he has a 2.99 career ERA, the Yankees seem to have him figured out.
On the other side will be the league leader in innings pitched and games started, CC Sabathia. As expected, CC has been pitching lights out this August. His only blip was his last outing against the ChiSox, also opposing Buehrle, when he allowed five runs over seven innings. That was good enough for the win that day, though, and he’s plowed through each subsequent start, earning a victory every time.
What’s changed this month about Sabathia is his strikeouts and walks. Over the season’s first four months he had a 109:43 K/BB ratio, pretty good but not quite the insane ratios he’s had over the past few years. Since then he’s struck out 39 to just five walks. That’s more like it. The only miniscule problem here is that he’s allowed five homers this month, but those have mostly been of the solo variety. That’s going to happen to a power pitcher (see Santana, Johan). As long as they happen with no one on base, though, it’s not that big an issue.
Yanks look to put the series loss against the Rangers behind them by taking the first today. Considering the way the Sox played against the Sox last week, the Yankees should take all three here. Not that they will, but they should against a team playing like the Sox right now.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, Dh
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Jose Molina, C
And on the mound, number fifty-two, Carsten Charles Sabathia.
Yanks changing the Joba Plan mid-course
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yanks gear up for a potentially rain-soaked game against the Chicago White Sox, word out of the clubhouse involves some changes to the Joba Plan. Originally, the Yanks had planned to limit Joba to six more starts, prior to Tuesday’s sub-par outing, with extended rest in between. Now, the team has announced that Joba will take the ball every five days but that his innings will be closely monitored. According to Joe Girardi, Joba will not factor into every decision. Therefore, we can assume that he won’t be pitching five innings every start. “We just thought,” Girardi said to reporters, “putting him more on a routine would be better for him.” This week’s discouraging start has seemingly convinced the Yanks that a regular Joba is a better Joba or Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin.
While good for the rotation, this move means however, that the Yanks’ pen will be rather taxed every five days. At this point, the Yanks would be wise to have Phil Hughes or Al Aceves shadow Joba. Using Hughes would give him the regular innings he needs, and using Aceves would allow Al to slot back into the routine of a starter he seems to be missing. More on this over the weekend.
Report: Angels on the verge of landing Kazmir
Posted by: | CommentsMLB.com’s Lyle Spencer is reporting that the Angels are on the verge of acquiring Scott Kazmir for two minor leaguers. Pitcher Alexander Torres and third baseman Matthew Sweeney would head to Tampa. Kazmir is under contract through the 2011 season. He’ll make $8 million next and $12 million in 2011, and the Angels will hold a $13.5 million option or a $2 million buyout for the 2012 season. Reportedly, Kazmir will work out of the pen for the Angels.
This trade confuses me. The Rays are just three games out in the Wild Card and are under no impression to throw in the towel or make this trade now. Perhaps, they are wary of Kazmir’s elbow. Jon Heyman claims it’s about the money. No matter what, though, the October picture could be radically altered by this acquisition. The Angels have long had the Yanks’ number, and this move gives them another left-handed weapon for their pitching staff.
Pondering Penny, again
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday afternoon, following the Yanks’ loss to the Rangers, Mike reported that the Yankees were interested in Brad Penny. While early reports indicated that Penny may have promised the Red Sox that he would not sign with an AL East competitor following his release, George A. King III disputed those stories. Penny is free to go where he wants.
While the Yankees could use Penny to fill a fifth starter spot currently split between Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre — or the fourth starter spot with Joba in limbo — the Yankees aren’t the only team interested in Penny. According to MLB.com, the Rockies, Marlins, Rays, White Sox and Rangers are all considering Penny as well. It must feel good to be wanted.
For their part, the Yankees offered up some qualified “He’s better than Sergio Mitre” praise for Penny. “He’s got good stuff,” Johnny Damon said to King. “His secondary stuff might need a little tweak but his fastball was electric, it cut and he hit his spots with it. Bring him here, why not? I love the way the guy competes.”
Yankee fans, on the other hand, have seen Penny twice this year, and most of us probably aren’t that impressed. On July 11, Penny threw probably his best start of the season and beat the Yanks. He tossed six shut-out innings and allowed six hits and a walk while striking out five. On August 21, in his last Boston start, Penny gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk in four innings of work. This effort capped a five-start run in which Penny went 1-4 with a 9.11 ERA. Opponents are hitting .333/.397/.595 off Penny during this stretch.
So why are the Yankees interested? Well, as I mentioned, Penny would be better than Mitre. This stretch notwithstanding, Penny’s numbers — 7-8, 5.61 ERA — aren’t as bad as they seem. Penny’s BABIP is an absurd .327 even though his line drive and HR rates are in line with league averages. Why the high BABIP? Well, the Red Sox’s defense is terrible. Their team UZR is -22.2, worse only than the Royals, Orioles, Twins and Indians in the AL. Combine that defense with a little bit of bad luck, and you get an underperforming pitcher.
Right now, Penny’s FIP stands 4.58 with an xFIP of 4.96. That’s tolerable, and Penny won’t give the Yankees innings — he hasn’t pitched out of the 6th yet this year — he’ll give them some back-end stability as the team looks to get their rotation in line for October. If the Yanks sign Penny to the league minimum, they won’t expect much, but they don’t need much. Six innings of 4.58 ERA baseball would be a-OK with me.
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What to make of Phil Coke
Posted by: | CommentsWhat good is a lefty in the pen if he’s vulnerable to lefties? Chris Davis’s homer yesterday was the sixth Phil Coke has allowed to fellow lefties, calling his effectiveness into question. And with good reason. He’s had stretches of effectiveness, but there have been times when he’s just plain bad. Unfortunately, many of those bad times come against left-handed hitters, the very ones he’s most often charged with retiring.
This has left many wondering whether Coke is fit for duty in the Yankees bullpen. After yesterday’s game he has a 5.05 ERA, up from 3.15 on July 3. Clearly he’s on the downswing, right? Well, maybe not. While Coke isn’t nearly as good as he was earlier in the season, he still might have something to offer the Yanks.
Phil Coke had a great run in June and July. In 22.1 innings, he allowed just seven runs, striking out 22 against five walks. Opponents managed just a .508 OPS against him, and his GB/FB ratio was 1.85. After a rocky start to the season, it looked like he had settled into his bullpen role, which was mostly relegated to the seventh inning and lefties in the eighth.
(Of those seven runs he allowed in those two months, four came in one game, against the Angels when seemingly none Yankees managed to pitch well. So outside of one game, he was even more remarkable.)
Unfortunately, August started off quite poorly for Coke, as he allowed six runs while recording just one out on August 1 against the White Sox. That pumped up his ERA from 3.77 to 4.98, further showing why ERA is a poor indicator for a reliever’s effectiveness. He blew one game, which was pretty much blown in the first place, but had his ERA climb by more than a run. That should tell you all you need to know.
Then, of course, came the home run to Victor Martinez, which left a sour taste in our mouths. The Yanks came back to win that game, but that doesn’t erase Coke’s troubles. And then again yesterday, he gave up that three-run jack to Davis, putting a 3-2 game pretty much out of reach.
For the most part, Coke hasn’t been bad. He’s had a number of outings in which he has allowed multiple runs, which is never a good thing. He also has three blown saves, five if you count the two he recently blew that the Yanks came back to win. But he’s also had stretches where he pumps strikes and gets the Yanks through the later innings. He’s also done a decent job of keeping opponents off base — .223 batting average against and a .290 on-base against.
The problem with Coke this year is leaving sluggable balls over the plate. That is evidenced by his slugging against, .418, which is pretty bad considering the .223 average opponents have off him, and his HR/9, 1.6. We know Coke can pitch well. He did it for two straight months, minus one blip. He’s had some struggles lately, but for all we know that could be related to his new role, a reliever (he was a starter all of his career prior to last year), and a new setting, the majors. With rosters expanding, the Yanks can afford to give him time to settle down. Given the way he pitched earlier this year, he could be an asset in the playoffs.
The amazing, disappearing Phil Hughes
Posted by: | CommentsYou remember Phil Hughes, right? That great young pitcher the Yankees have decided is more valuable out of the bullpen? Well, have you seen him lately? It seems that the team, or at least manager Joe Girardi, has decided that the best way to utilize the kid’s talent is by using him as infrequently as possible. People used to trash Joe Torre for overusing his Circle of Trust™ relievers, but now we have the exact opposite going on; they aren’t being used enough.
A few weeks ago I mentioned that even though he was going to work in relief the rest of the season, Hughes would be generally okay in terms of his innings count, but since that post 22 days ago, Hughes has thrown a grand total of 5.1 innings, or just one every four days or so. Just to put this underuse in even more perspective, let’s bullet point some more stats:
- In the month of August (remember, today’s the 28th), Hughes has thrown exactly 8 IP.
- Here are the American League relievers that have thrown fewer innings than Hughes this month: Randy Choate (LOOGY), Edgar Gonzalez (Oakland’s mop-up guy), Jess Todd (called up a week into August), and Jason Jennings (DFA’d). That’s it. There’s roughly 155 relief pitchers in the American League at any given moment, and just four have been used less this month.
- Over the last 14 days Hughes has made two appearances, throwing 2.1 IP and a grand total of 37 pitches. Two appearances in the last two weeks. That would be fine if he were, you know, a starter.
- Over the last 16 days, he’s thrown 4.2 IP and 81 pitches.
- Every other pitcher on the Yankees staff has thrown more innings this month, including Chad Gaudin, who didn’t join the team until August 9th.
I understand that relief pitchers have become more and more specialized (damn you, Tony LaRussa, damn you to hell) and that the 8th inning has somehow morphed into the most important inning in the history of New York baseball, but this is getting ridiculous. We’ve seen the last two times out that Hughes was battling rust, yet the solution seems to be use him … less.
Please, more Phil Hughes. You’ll be amazed by what you see.
Yanks block couple of Red Sox on waivers
Posted by: | CommentsOnce the trade deadline passed, things were going to be tough on the Yankees. Atop the AL East and with a growing lead, they would have last dibs in the AL for any waiver claims. This meant that the second-place Red Sox have been in a position to block any potential Yankee moves all month. Since both teams have been looking for pitching, that would seem to put the Yankees at a disadvantage — and it has to an extent. Not that they were necessarily interested, but the Sox did claim Billy Wagner before the Yanks had a shot. Who knows how many other times that happened with different players.
Yesterday we learned of the Yankees pulling two moves that hurt the Sox, though not in any truly significant way. First we heard that the Yanks put in a claim on AAA 1B/OF Chris Carter, whom the Red Sox placed on waivers at some point this week. Carter, who is on the Sox 40-man roster, is believed to be New York-bound in the Wagner trade. The Yanks claim means that Carter will remain a player to be named later, and will most likely change teams after the season ends.
This isn’t just a move to stick it to the Sox. As Buster Olney notes, this could put some pressure on the Sox in terms of their 40-man roster. Moving Carter would free up a spot that then could be used to add Paul Byrd or return Daisuke Matsuzaka from the 60-day DL. Now they’ll have to make another move. Placing Carter on waivers again would mean the Red Sox cannot pull him back, so if anyone claims him he cannot be sent to the Mets for Wagner after the season (obviously).
Just before we learned of the Carter claim, we heard that the Yankees put in a claim on Brad Penny earlier this month, and that the Red Sox pulled him back. This blocked the Sox from trading Penny to another team, meaning they could not get a Justin Smoak-type prospect in return for the recently released righty. We also heard yesterday that the Yankees might have interest in Penny. Could he be any worse than Mitre and Gaudin? Wait. Don’t answer that.
While the Sox have the traditional advantage of a blocking position, the Yankees are making their own moves to make life hard on the Sox. I wonder whose moves have hurt more. The Sox could have blocked any number of pitchers the Yankees might have considered trading for — though the pitching-starved Sox have not traded for any save Wagner. The Yanks have forced the Sox to make a 40-man roster move, possibly two, rather than clearing one for free. They also blocked the Sox chances of getting anything, even a pittance, in return for Penny (though no return was guaranteed).
In any case, I love to see this kind of stuff. If you have the chance to make life a little tougher on your opponent, especially when he has the ability to make life hard for you, then go for it. There’s no reason to let the Sox skate by and make easy moves.
A look at the last 35 games
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Junichi Tazawa — Japanese for Brad Penny — and the Red Sox lost to the White Sox tonight, the Yankees moved one game closer to wrapping up the AL East. With 35 games left this year, their magic number is 30. While that six-game lead can sometimes seem small and sometimes seem large, if the Yanks go 18-17 the rest of the way, the Red Sox would have to go 24-11 just to tie in the East. I doubt this Sox club can play .686 baseball for five weeks.
Anyway, with the stretch drive upon us, the Yankees have a few goals ahead of them: They have to rest their regulars to make sure that everyone is as fresh as possible for an October run. They have to get their pitching in order. And they have to accomplish these two goals while winning the division in a way that inspires confidence among the fans and, more importantly, the players. For how well the Yanks have played lately, backing into the post-season just won’t cut it.
As the White Sox come to town for the last home set in August, let’s take a look ahead at the Yanks’ schedule. In September, they face some very good teams and some very bad teams. In between is an annoying and potentially dangerous trip to Seattle and Anaheim.
I miss the days of baseball when September used to be reserved for division rivals only. A West Coast trip in the second-to-last week of the season should be outlawed. But such are the way of things. The Yanks could very well be playing in Anaheim come the first week in October, and the team should be prepared for the long flight.
Take a look at how the Yanks’ remaining opponents break down by record:
| Team | Winning Percentage | Games |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox | .500 | 3 |
| Orioles | .406 | 6 |
| Blue Jays | .464 | 6 |
| Rays | .548 | 7 |
| Angels | .600 | 4 |
| Mariners | .520 | 3 |
| Red Sox | .575 | 3 |
| Royals | .381 | 3 |
| Total | At or above .500 | 20 |
| Total | Below .500 | 15 |
As you can see, the Yanks play most of their games against teams at or above .500. Of course, had the White Sox lost on Thursday, these numbers would be flipped, but luckily for us, they did not. If the Yanks play just .500 ball against their .500 or better opponents, they would be 10-10 with 15 games left against bad teams. If they go 10-5 against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals — not an unreasonable assumption — they would finish the season 20-15, good for 99 wins. Technically, Boston could catch them, but it isn’t likely. Plus, I believe the Yanks can play better than .500 ball against their so-called “good” opponents. A series win against Chicago would get this stretch off on the right foot.
The key team in all of this is Tampa Bay. Recently ranked as the game’s best team in Beyond the Box Score’s SABR-minded power rankings, Tampa has given the Yanks trouble recently. They’re still clinging to the hopes of a playoff spot, and their season is hanging in the balance. These two teams play four at home starting with a Labor Day day-night double header, and Tampa will try to make things interesting.
In the end, I hate to count my AL East chickens before they hatch. I’ve seen far too many Yankee clubs sleepwalk their ways through September, and I won’t relax until the champagne is flowing. But I’d expect that party soon enough. Maybe it’ll come in Anaheim, but maybe it will happen at the best moment of September: with the Red Sox in town and on the field. I can dream, right?
Adams’ slam guides Tampa to win
Posted by: | CommentsOld buddy Dan McCutchen was named to the Team USA World Cup roster. JB Cox was part of the last World Cup team in 2007, when they won the gold medal by defeating Cuba in Taiwan. If my memory serves me correctly, Kurt Suzuki and Brandon Wood hit big homers in the finals. Kurt Klutch definitely did something big, I remember that much. I’m an idiot, nevermind.
Triple-A Scranton (2-1 win over Syracuse)
Kevin Russo: 2 for 4, 1 K, 1 CS
Ramiro Pena: 0 for 4, 1 K – 1 for his last 19 (.053)
Austin Jackson, Shelley Duncan & Juan Miranda: all 1 for 3 - Shelley scored a run … Miranda homered, drove in two, K’ed & committed a throwing error
Colin Curtis & Reegie Corona: both 0 for 2, 1 BB, 1 K - Corona committed a throwing error
Francisco Cervelli & John Rodriguez: both 0 for 3 – J-Rod K’ed twice
Romulo Sanchez: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 2 WP, 10-2 GB/FB - 55 of 96 pitches were strikes (57.3%) … just a brilliant effort from a guy who was nothing more than the fourth or fifth option out of the pen earlier in the season
Zach Kroenke: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-0 GB/FB – 5 of 6 pitches were strikes
Jon Albaladejo: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 3-0 GB/FB – 13 of 19 pitches were strikes (81.3%)
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
