Archive for August, 2009
Game 126: Avenging a sad loss
Posted by: | CommentsI didn’t want to mention this on Saturday, because why mention something negative after a big win, but it was yet another case of the O’Neill Theory. For the uninitiated, this is a completely unsubstantiated theory espoused by Paul O’Neill which states that a team getting blown out that scores runs in the ninth is showing life, and will likely win the next day. That’s what happened with the Sox on Friday night, and they came back in a big way on Saturday.
Of course, the theory will not be right 100 percent of the time. Yet it seems every time I take notice of the Yankees scoring runs in the 9th inning of a blowout, they come back and win the next day. Today will be yet another data point in testing this theory. Yes, it’s stupid, but it’s worked out so well that I can’t just ignore it at this point. So bear with me.
The Yanks will face rookie Derek Holland for the second time this season (third counting a relief appearance). You can read more about the Pettitte – Holland matchup in our Rangers series preview. I’ll spare the regurgitation of information here, but suffice it to say that Holland is not the same pitcher the Yankees saw in May. He’s been quite good over this last three starts.
In an attempt to get his starters some rest, Girardi has sat Damon today against the lefty. Clearly Girardi has more information about his players than I do, but I wonder if an alternate scenario might make sense. We know Melky’s slumping something fierce now. Why not put Hairston in center? Give Melky the night off. Damon had Thursday, Saturday, and Monday off. They can find time for him to sit against the White Sox. Again, this might have something to do with the lingering effects of Damon’s knee pain, so I won’t rush to judgement. I just thought they could have used the opportunity to get Melky a day off.
There’s another curious lineup move afoot. Tomorrow is a day game, so Jose Molina would catch either tonight or tomorrow. Posada is in the lineup today, so that presumes Molina catches tomorrow. Burnett pitches tomorrow. Does this signal the much-hyped rift between pitcher and catcher? Via Feinsand, Girardi says no. Action speak louder than words, though, and it would have been just as easy to catch Molina tonight and Jorge tomorrow. It might even make more sense to do it that way, because Molina would be facing a lefty tonight. I’m not saying there is a rift, but I am saying that if Girardi wants to quell the notion, he’d do better by having Posada catch Burnett tomorrow.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Nick Swisher, RF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Jerry Hairston, LF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
And on the mound, number forty-six, Andy Pettitte.
Link Dump: Shout-out edition
Posted by: | CommentsJust a couple of links to kill the time before Pettitte takes the mound.
Over the course of this past off-season, two blogs became daily reads for me: Beyond the Box Score and FanGraphs. The writers at both sites do a good job of cultivating discussion about the game. Those not statistically inclined might not like it as much, but even then it’s not all about the numbers. It’s about trying to gain a deeper understanding of how the game works. And along with that will come many bad ideas. The best of us have them.
I’d like to plug one column in particular, and that’s Tommy Bennett’s Daily Box Score. Every day he curates a number of links which probe deeper into the game. Not only are the links always good — and not always with a statistical bend — but Tommy does a great job of weaving them together. Plus, he’s a friend of RAB, so make sure to check it out.
Sabermatrician disagrees with Ben
Remember that bit on bunting Ben wrote this morning? It eventually made its way to BBTF, and by those means made it to The Book Blog (linked in the headline). Tom Tango points out what he thinks are two false statements, and then plugs his book, specifically the 50-page chapter on bunting. My bookmark has been at that point since the beginning of the season. I feel kinda stupid now that I haven’t read it. It’s only been freaking five months.
Appeals court votes against steroid list seizure
So it looks like we won’t be seeing the remaining 100 names from the 2003 performance-enhancing drugs list any time soon. In a 9-2 decision the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals determined that the government was wrong in their seizure of the list. “This was an obvious case of deliberate overreaching by the government in an effort to seize data as to which it lacked probable cause,” wrote Chief Judge Alex Kozinski.
“The risk to the players associated with disclosure, and with that the ability of the Players Association to obtain voluntary compliance with drug testing from its members in the future, is very high,” the judge wrote. “Indeed, some players appear to have already suffered this very harm as a result of the government’s seizure.”
So while names might still leak out — presumably there are still sources who have this information — they might not be as forthcoming. MLBPA lawyer Elliot Peters thinks that the leakers “should be investigated and punished.” It’s tough to argue against that. Even so, it’s a shame that A-Rod, Ortiz, Sosa, and Manny will take the fall for this, while 100 more players will remain anonymous.
Tom Tango makes his second appearance in this post because of his ambitious project: community scouting reports. The idea is to break down defense into a number of categories and have people who have seen the players fill in their ratings. Tango makes a number of points in the introduction, including what I consider the most important: if you’re not sure, skip it. It’s tough to see how Melky Cabrera takes his first step on a fly ball if you’re only watching on TV. This is meant to provide an accurate assessment, not prove how smart you are.
You can check out the Yankees report here. They have more entries than any other team — surprise, surprise. Everything looks pretty good, though I think Jeter’s footwork is a bit better than 0.1 (on a five-point scale) better than A-Rod, and I wouldn’t say his footwork is any worse than Cano’s. In any case, I’ve got some idea for ratings in my head, but I’m going to pay a bit more attention over the last month and make sure I hit a few games with these observations in mind.
Is Joba throwing too many sliders?
Posted by: | CommentsAs Joba Chamberlain labored through yet another start last night, there was plenty of talk that the kid was relying way too much on his slidepiece, particularly whenever he needed to make a pitch. If he runs into a 3-2 count these days, you can bet the house on him throwing a slider down and away from righties or down and in to lefties. And if the catcher doesn’t call for it, Joba will shake him off until he gets it. The pitch is nasty enough that he can still get away with it despite the obvious pattern at times, but better hitters (like the ones the Rangers trot out there day after day) will lay off it.
It’s seems like the more that Joba struggles, the more he goes to his slider. I assume it’s his comfort pitch, the one he feels he can throw for strikes at anytime. But is he taking it too far? Let’s take a look at Joba’s pitch selection by start this year via the magic of PitchFX. Remember to click to the graph for a larger view.
What you’re looking at is how much Joba threw each pitch in a given start. So, for example, in his first start of the year he threw 65.5% fastballs, 14.9% sliders, 12.6 curves, 3.4% changeups, and 3.4% two seamers. It grabbed the exact values out of my data table, but you can see where they come from on the chart. I didn’t bother to add a trendline for two-seamers because he doesn’t throw it anymore.
Start #8 was the one when he took that liner off his shin and left after just two-thirds of an inning. Starts #18, 19 and 20 are those three great starts Joba made immediately after the All Star Break. As you can see, since those three great starts he’s throwing more sliders each time out, peaking yesterday when he threw sliders with 29 of his 96 pitches, or 30.2%.
All those sliders are coming mostly at the expense of his curveball, but also his heater to a degree. Believe it or not, Joba actually has a really good curve when he does decide to use it, which is far too infrequently right now. Despite all that talk about decreased velocity, Joba is still averaging 92.5 mph with the pitch, which is above average velocity. It’s just 0.1 mph slower than Tim Lincecum’s average fastball, and ahead of noted flamethrowers like Rich Harden and Javy Vazquez. Joba’s fastball is good enough that he can throw it 65-70% of the time and still succeed, particularly when he needs to make a pitch.
Part of the problem is that Joba, like many young pitchers, was rushed up through the minors and didn’t have to deal with any adversity until he got to the big leagues. Hell, the first time we ever saw Joba struggle was the midge game in the 2007 playoffs. Whenever he got in the trouble in the minors, he probably just threw a slider or two and those poor kids couldn’t lay off it. Now he’s finding out that big league hitters aren’t so forgiving.
We expect instant gratification, but this is all part of the growing pains we’ll have to deal with. It’s not fun, it’s frustrating, and it’s enough to make us reconsider how good we think Joba will really become. A pennant race in the AL East is a tough place for a kid to learn to how to pitch, but Joba still needs to do a better job than what he’s been doing.
Dan Brooks’ invaluable PitchFX tool was used for his post
Sorting out September callups
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Man, you know the season is almost over when we start talking about possible September callups. In case you don’t know what those are, teams are allowed to expand their rosters on September 1st, which allows them to rest their regulars and get a look at some younger players. Because these guys aren’t on the active roster by August 31st, they are ineligible for the postseason roster. Teams can still finagle them on there if there’s an injury, though, which is exactly what the Angels did with K-Rod back in 2002. So who are the Yankees going to call up in September this year? EJ Fagan at TYU already took a shot at figuring out who it would be, and now it’s my turn.
Now, one thing to remember is that not all Sept. callups actually happen on Sept. 1st. Last year, the Yanks only called up two players on the 1st – a third catcher in Chad Moeller and another arm in Phil Coke. Melky Cabrera was recalled three days later, after the minor league regular season ended. David Robertson, Phil Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, Frankie Cervelli, and Juan Miranda weren’t brought up until the minor league playoffs ended in the middle of September.
In 2007, essentially the same thing happened. Ian Kennedy and Alberto Gonzalez were recalled on the 1st, and it wasn’t until the minor league season/playoffs ended a week or two later that the likes of Tyler Clippard, Sean Henn, Kei Igawa, Matt DeSalvo, Jeff Karstens, Bronson Sardinha, and Ross Ohlendorf were brought up. 2006? Same thing. Wil Nieves, Jose Veras, and TJ Beam on the 1st, everyone else in the middle of the month. Obviously this year’s team is in a different spot since they’re so far out in front, but they have a history of throwing their upper-level affiliates a bone and letting them keep their best players for a playoff run.
Assuming they stick with this trend, don’t expect to see much action next Tuesday. Frankie Cervelli seems like a given to add that third catcher, ditto Ramiro Pena since the team only has three bench players right now. As for another arm, Jon Albaladejo seems like the logical choice since he can give some length and has been on the NY-SWB shuttle all year. Remember that the team is also likely to get Brett Gardner back off the disabled list around this time, so that’s like calling up another outfielder.
Anthony Claggett, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Melancon, Juan Miranda, and Shelley Duncan are already on the 40-man roster and have been in bigs before, so they seem like locks for a call up once Triple-A Scranton’s playoff run ends. After that though, things get tricky. Chris Garcia, Ian Kennedy, and Kevin Cash are on the 40-man, but are out for the season with injuries sustained while playing in the minors. The team can’t slide them over to the 60-day DL to free up 40-man spots because of that, so there’s basically three dead spots they have to maneuver around. There really isn’t anyone else DFA’able in there, and it would be pretty stupid to cut someone like Sergio Mitre just to add another pitcher likely to perform at a similar level while paying both salaries.
Zach Kroenke and Mike Dunn are two lefty relievers that have had tremendous seasons in the minors. Kroenke, drafted by the Marlins in the Rule 5 Draft last offseason but returned in Spring Training, is holding lefthanders to a .169 AVG against and can go multiple innings if needed. Dunn is holding all batters to a .218 AVG against and has struck out 94 in just 70.1 IP. Both guys were reportedly told that they would head to the Arizona Fall League if they didn’t receive a Sept. call up, which, if nothing else, tells us that they’re at least considering bringing them up. I think Dunn has a leg up because he’s already on the packed 40-man roster.
Wilkins DeLaRosa is another lefty bullpen option on the 40-man, but his performance has been up and down between injuries this year. I don’t see it happening. The only other player on the 40-man roster not accounted for is Andrew Brackman, and he hasn’t done anything to deserve a call up. It’s a shame, really.
The other group of players they could consider for possible Sept. call ups are the players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter. Generally speaking, high school draftees from 2005 and college draftees from 2006 are eligible this year, so that means players like Austin Jackson, Kevin Russo, Ivan Nova, and Mr. Kroenke. I don’t remember the Yankees ever calling a player up in September before he had to be added to the 40-man, and I don’t see that happening now given how crowded the roster is. It’s more likely that you’ll see these four guys, plus DeLaRosa and Brackman possibly, come up to the Bronx to work out with the team and hang around the clubhouse and stuff, but without being activated. They’d then have to watch games from the stands since they can’t be in the dugout. The Yanks do this with a few guys every year, and some alumni include Phil Hughes, JB Cox, Alan Horne, and Jeff Marquez.
So just to recap, look for Cervelli, Pena, and a pitcher like Albaladejo to be brought up immediately, with Dunn, Melancon, Edwar, Shelley, Miranda and Claggett to follow once the Triple-A Scranton season/playoff run is over. Realistically speaking, the Yankees just need enough position players in September to make sure they can rest everyone in the infield as well as Johnny Damon at the same time down the stretch, and that would be possible with Hinske, Hairston, Pena, Miranda, and Shelley. They’d also need just enough arms to soak up maybe 50 innings tops, mostly in blowout games and spot starts once a playoff spot is clinched. This group accomplishes all of that.
Photo Credit: Antonelli, NY Daily News
So far, so good for Marte
Posted by: | CommentsWith so much frustration surrounding last night’s game, it’s easy to let something positive fall through the cracks. There was something of that nature last night for the Yanks, and his name is Damaso Marte. After retiring the only two batters he faced Friday, he came in to record the last out of the seventh and then retired the Rangers in the eighth. He did this with aplomb, striking out two batters in those 1.1 innings while issuing just one walk — a strategic one of the four-pitch variety, putting the dangerous Michael Young on in favor of Josh Hamilton, whom Marte fooled with a breaking ball for strike three.
The Red Sox just picked up Billy Wagner to help strengthen their bullpen. The Yanks have added Marte. On their best days, Marte isn’t at Wagner’s level, but their recent injuries might level the playing field a bit. Wagner, after all, is just 11 months out from Tommy John surgery and was concerned about his potential workload in Boston. Marte is also coming off injury, though of a less defined nature. He’s battled shoulder inflammation most of the year, but by all accounts the ailment wasn’t serious enough to consider surgery.
It’s tough to pin too many hopes on Marte. We’ve only see him throw two innings, but those two innings were pretty impressive. His fastball has been working, hitting 93 much of the time, though last night he did drop down to about 91 for a few pitches (on Friday he threw 93 most of the time) and his breaking stuff seems just fine. By all early appearances, Marte might be the guy the Yanks hoped he was when they signed him to a three-year, $12 million contract this off-season.
The bunt that drove us all crazy
Posted by: | CommentsIf you want to read our indictment of Joba Chamberlain‘s poor outing last night, head on down to Joe’s recap. I’m not here to talk about Ol’ Two-Out Run Joba. I want to talk about bunting and why it’s generally a very bad idea.
Baseball is a game played without a clock. Instead of 48 or 60 minutes, baseball teams get precious outs. Each side has 27 of them, and at the end of those 27 outs, whichever team has more runs wins. Just as teams don’t like to give up minutes in football, why should managers leading a team on offense ever opt to give up outs? Some will say it improves their chances of winning, but in reality it doesn’t.
In fact, it has been proven that at no point in the game does giving up an out in exchange for a base lead to a better chance at scoring runs — and runs, after all, represent the ultimate goal of a baseball game. Before we arrive at Nick Swisher, Joe Girardi and the bunt that made me want to punch a wall, take a look at Baseball Prospectus’ run matrix. This chart details how many runs a team at bat scores in any given situation. For example, with runners on 1st and 2nd with no one out, a team is expected to score 1.50766. With one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd, a team is expected to score 1.43489 runs.
There are two key points here. First, with that extra out and extra base, a team’s total runs scored decreases by around 0.07 runs. Is that by itself worth eschewing the bunt? Probably not. After all, a team with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out still scores, on average, more than 1 run in that situation. There is, however, a need to consider who is batting.
And now, we return to the Yankees. According to Jack Curry, Joe Girardi, with two on and no one out, asked Nick Swisher to bunt. Now, Nick Swisher is a power hitter. On the season, he has a 123 OPS+ and has hit 123 career home runs. He also gets on base 37 percent of the time — and, by the way, a team with bases loaded and no one out scores, on average, over two runs in that situation.
So Girardi asks Nick Swisher to bunt. Coming into tonight’s game, Nick Swisher had 7 career bunts in 2978 career plate appearances. Three of those bunts came this year. Not so surprisingly, Nick Swisher popped out, and the runners did not advance.
In the end, last night’s game really annoyed me. Joba was really bad, and the Yanks couldn’t protect an early 4-0 lead. They nearly mounted a comeback, but Joe Girardi stupidly managed it away. They still have a six-game lead, but Girardi has been a slave to bad strategy all year. Had the slumping Melky been up with Jeter behind him, I could see why the team might want to bunt, but Nick Swisher is a hitter. He should never ever be bunting after the Yanks got six batters on and the tying run is already in scoring position with no one out. It just doesn’t make sense.
Cotham strikes out 5 of 8 batters in pro debut
Posted by: | CommentsThe Arizona Fall League rosters are out. We already knew that Ian Kennedy, Austin Romine, Brandon Laird, and Colin Curtis were going, and we know that Zach Kroenke and Mike Dunn will head to the AzFL if they don’t receive Sept. callups. The Yanks still have three pitching spots to fill, and they’re probably taxi squad spots, meaning those players will only play on Wednesdays and Saturdays. In the past, guys like Eric Wordekemper and Kevin Whelan have filled those spots.
Triple-A Scranton (4-0 loss to Buffalo)
Kevin Russo, Austin Jackson & Shelley Duncan: all 1 for 4 – Ajax & Shelley each K’ed once
Ramiro Pena & Frankie Cervelli: both 1 for 3 – Pena drew a walk … Cervelli doubled
Colin Curtis: 0 for 4
Yuendell DeCaster & John Rodriguez: both 0 for 3 – DeCaster drew a walk & K’ed
Ivan Nova: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 8-8 GB/FB – 63 of 91 pitches were strikes (69.2%) … best start in about a month and a half
Mark Melancon: 2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 3-2 GB/FB – 25 of 33 pitches were strikes (75.8%) … first time since last May he allowed that many hits in an outing
Game 125 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsThis is the official change of luck thread.


