Archive for August, 2009

Jesus Drafted My Fantasy Football TeamThe second annual RAB Fantasy Football League drafted yesterday afternoon, although this year we pared down from 20 teams to 16. That’s still pretty deep, but just not as ridiculous. I’m sure you all remember who won the title last year, and trust me, all of us in the league are gunning to bring him down this time around.

Looking back at my team last year, I’d like to think my roster building skills have improved with experience. I mean, Joe Jurevicius? Really? I held the third overall pick yesterday, which sucked because I had to wait a freaking eternity between picks every other round. Here’s the team I drafted:

QB: Chad Pennington (9th round, 131 overall)
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew (1/3)
RB: Willie Parker (4/62)
WR: Anquan Boldin (2/30)
WR: Terrell Owens (3/35)
RB/WR: Knowshon Moreno (5/67)
TE: Zach Miller (6/94)
K: John Carney (14/222)
DEF: Carolina (8/126)

BEN: Admad Bradshaw, RB (7/99)
BEN: Mark Clayton, WR (10/158)
BEN: Devery Henderson, WR (11/163)
BEN: Jerome Harrison, RB (12/190)
BEN: Mark Sanchez, QB (13/195)
BEN: Todd Heap, TE (15/227)

Here’s how the top three rounds played out, if you’re interested. I was torn between MJD and Matt Forte for my top pick, but I felt comfortable with either. I figure maybe Da Bears might get a little cute and not run as much with their flashy new QB. I was planning to use my second pick on a guy like Ronnie Brown or Ryan Grant, but both came off the board right before my pick, so I went with Boldin. I said during the draft that I immediately regretted the Owens pick, but I can live with it. He’s still good for double digit touchdowns.

After last year’s debacle that left me with just two decent RB essentially all season, I made sure to gobble up plenty this time around. I liked my Bradshaw pick in the 7th round, especially since he’s the clear #2 behind Jacobs. If 30-yr old Jamal Lewis slows down, Harrison figures to pick up the extra carries. Not a bad gamble in the 12th round, but I would have preferred Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. He came off the board between my 11th and 12th rounders.

Yeah, my QB situation is weak, but there’s some okay guys available in free agency that are just an injury away from a starting job. In the 13th round, I’d rather gamble on the kid almost guaranteed to start in Mark Sanchez then some retread. Pennington saved me after Vince Young’s meltdown last year, so hopefully he holds his own again. I like my team, unusual for me following any kind of fantasy draft. What do you guys think?

* * *

With the Yanks celebrating another win over Boston enjoying an off-day, use this as your open thread for the evening. The Mets already lost, so there’s no baseball on regular cable in the Tri-State Area as far as I know. Rex Ryan and the Jets take on his old team in Baltimore on Monday Night Football, so I’ll get a chance to see my 13th round pick in action. Anything goes here, just be nice.

Oh, one more thing. If you’re looking for a fantasy hockey league, Dave at BlueSeat Blogs is hosting one this season. I’ve never played in my life, but I joined figuring it would be fun. I’m not sure how many spots are left, but if you want in just email Dave via that link I provided. He says the winner will get a (small) prize, which is more than those cheapskates at RAB offer.

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First rounder Slade Heathcott played in his first professional game today, going 1-for-3 with a single for the Rookie level GCL Yankees. He lined out to the shortstop in the first, went the opposite way for a single to left in the third, and grounded out to the first baseman in the fifth. With the Yanks losing big, Heathcott was lifted in the 8th inning, and inning after some others were replaced. He started the game in centerfield and batted leadoff, and based on the recap he only had two chances on defense, fielding two singles up the middle in the third.

The road the big leagues has to start somewhere, and this is just the first baby step for Mr. Heathcott.

Categories : Asides, Minors
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Aug
24

Getting the third out

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When the Yankees lost on Saturday to the Red Sox, they did so in rather dubious fashion. The 14 runs allowed wasn’t pretty, but what made the game worse were the 13 two-out runs the team allowed. If only someone could have gotten the third out, the Yanks would have had a chance.

For the Bombers’ pitchers, though, this two-out phenomenon was nothing new and would constitute a weekend theme. Yesterday, CC Sabathia allowed all four of the Red Sox’s runs to score with two outs, and on Friday, 11 of 11 Boston runs would cross the plate with but one out left in the inning.

Beyond Boston, the Yanks’ recent road trip was marred by two-out follies. In Seattle last weekend, Joba Chamberlain and the bullpen lost 10-3 to the Mariners with all ten Seattle runs coming with two outs. In total, the Yanks had a very successful 7-3 road trip, but 41 of the 51 runs they allowed — or 80 percent — came with two outs. While the Yanks escaped unscathed this time around, all of these two-out runs are good for no one’s heart.

On the season, the Yankees have been unable to slam the door on innings. The team has allowed 589 runs, and 248 of those have come with two outs. That’s 42 percent of all runs. Comparatively, the Yanks have allowed 143 runs with no one out and 198 runs with one man out. Across all three situations, the team’s OPS against ranges from .741 with no one out to .749 with two men out, and the team’s walk rate increases from one walk every 12.4 plate appearances with no one out to one walk every 11.7 plate appearance with one out to one walk every 9.1 plate appearances with two outs.

While these variations seem relatively minor, by comparing the Yanks’ two out numbers to the league’s, we can start to see why the team is struggling. With two outs, the team’s sOPS+, a measure of the team’s OPS as compared to the league average for that split, is 104. For both no outs and one out, the team’s sOPS+ is 95. In other words, the Yanks are better than league average with zero and one outs but worse with two outs. Overall in the AL, just 36.8 percent of runs have scored with two outs.

Individually, A.J. Burnett is one of the worst offenders, as we saw on Saturday. He has allowed 37 runs with two outs. That’s just a hair under 50 percent of his total runs allowed. He has walked 33 batters with two outs but just 22 each with no outs or one out. Pettitte, too, has been much worse with two outs than he is earlier in innings.

It’s tough to draw many conclusions from here. We’re looking at a rather selective sample that isn’t really indicative of anything other than past frustration. Will A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte always struggle with two outs? Probably not.

We can, however, confirm what we have long suspected: The Yankees have been worse at getting the third out than they are at getting to two outs. We saw it in Seattle; we saw it in Boston. Even when the team won, we saw those two-out rallies, two-out hits and two-out errors lead to more runs. It goes without saying that the Yankee hurlers need to get that third out. Hopefully, it won’t remain as elusive for some as it has been so far.

Categories : Pitching
Comments (94)
Aug
24

About that Burnett-Posada rift

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Burnett & Posada wondering what the hell is going onSo by now you’ve heard all about this little problem AJ Burnett and Jorge Posada had on Saturday, and it’s the early favorite for Stupid Internet Story of the Week. Howeva, if you don’t know what I’m talking about, basically the two couldn’t get on the same page with regards to pitch selection over the weekend and AJ got lit up like Times Square. Amazingly, small little stuff like this manages to become a big story because the team is kickin’ so much ass right now that there aren’t many problems to complain about. ESPN even managed to devote five whole minutes to this nonsense during the broadcast last night.

First off, just because Burnett and Posada had a problem on Saturday does not mean they have a perpetual problem. Mark Feinsand already laid out the recent success the two have shared, so I’m not going to bother regurgitating it here. Just head over and check his post out. Sure, Burnett’s AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS against are all higher with Posada behind the plate than any other catcher this year, but the sample sizes aren’t meaningful. Are we really going to compare 400+ batters faced with Posada to just over 100 with Molina? Or 56 with Cervelli? Really? Why don’t they just trade for Paul Bako then?

Most of the blame was hoisted on Posada’s shoulders over the weekend, but he’s not the guy making the pitches. Burnett has to execute, otherwise even the finest game calling in the history of the universe won’t do anything. Burnett’s a pretty simple pitcher, he works with a fastball and a curveball, and his stuff is plenty good enough that he can throw fastballs in fastball counts and breaking balls in breaking ball counts and still dominate. You’d think it wouldn’t be hard to map out a gameplan given the need for only two signs, but apparently it is.

Here’s the thing: Posada is going to catch everyday in the playoffs. Every single inning of every single game. And if he doesn’t for any reason other than injury, Joe Girardi should be fired because that’s like, Managing 101. Posada’s arguably the best catcher in baseball (NMD) and the team is much better with him in the lineup than Jose Molina or Frankie Cervelli or Joe Girardi or Mike Stanley or pretty much anyone. And because of his, Burnett and Posada need to use the rest of the season to get on the same page.

Not to jinx it or anything, but the Yankees are all but a lock to make the playoffs at this point. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 99.72271% chance of playing in October, Cool Standings has it at 98.6%. If the team bombs and doesn’t make the postseason, then they have way bigger problems than AJ Burnett and Jorge Posada not getting along. Anyway, because of this comfortable cushion, the team can afford to let Burnett and Posada work through their communication issues in AJ’s eight or so remaining starts.

We’re not talking about Gary Sheffield learning to play first or anything crazy like that, it’s just a set of battery mates needing to improve their communication. The answer isn’t separating the two for the rest of the year just to win what will probably amount to a few meaningless tack on games. If having Posada and Burnett matchup the rest of the year costs them a game at some point in September, so be it. It’s something that needs to be done in order to put the team in the best position to win in October. We’ll just have to deal with the noise in the meantime.

Photo Credit: Sipkin, Daily News

Categories : Rants
Comments (167)

For much of the last two off-seasons, the Andy Pettitte Question has loomed over the Yanks’ pitching plans. Each year, Pettitte has equivocated about his future, and each year, he has ended up signing with the Yanks after much back and forth. This year, he signed at the end of January, fairly late in the Hot Stove League.

So far, 2009 has been kind to Andy Pettitte. He is enjoying a second-half renaissance, and while he wasn’t at his best on Friday, he admitted that the blowout score distracted him. He still pitched the Yanks to a big win though, and his second-half numbers — 2.82 ERA, 47 K, 1.11 WHIP in 7 starts spanning 44.2 innings — are superb for a mid-rotation starter.

With his Friday victory, in fact, Pettitte won his 10th game of the year, and it marked the 12th time in 12 Yankee seasons Pettitte has reached double digits in wins. He has been nothing if not durable and fairly consistent during his Yankee career.

Perennially surrounding Pettitte are questions and concerns about his left elbow and his age. He will turn 38 midway through the 2010 season, and the Yankees have a few young pitchers waiting in the wings. That doesn’t faze Andy. While Pettitte is still focusing on the current goal of that championship this season, he is looking ahead a bit to 2010, and in a recent interview with Daily News sports writer Christian Red, Pettitte talked about his pinstriped future:

But Pettitte hinted Sunday night that he not only wants to play next year, but that he would prefer a return engagement in pinstripes. After weathering an offseason in which he and the Yankees haggled for weeks before agreeing on a deal, the 37-year-old lefthander said he does not want to repeat a lengthy contract process.

“I really would hate . . . I really don’t want to go into the offseason, you know, and sit there and be a free agent again, have to worry about other people making me offers and whatever,” the lefthander told the Daily News before the rubber game against the Red Sox…

“As far as next year – I’m trying to get through this year. I hope I can stay healthy and try to help this club win. That’s all we’re looking at right now. I’m not through – we got a lot of starts left (this season). I want my arm to be healthy. Once I get closer, I can start thinking about that. Maybe start talking to my family and my wife about that.”

To me, Pettitte sounds as though he wants to and will do his best to return next year. By all accounts, his arm has been feeling better than it has in years, and while the Yankees should recognize the need to rest their starters in advance of October, Pettitte’s health and success has been a pleasant surprise.

For next year, then, if Pettitte’s arm holds up over the last five weeks of the season and into October, the Yankees should bring him back, and they should do so because of Chien-Ming Wang. Wang’s surgery has completely changed the equation. In the past, the Yanks were eying a 2010 rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Wang though is out until at least midway through the 2010 season, and his ability to pitch effectively is up in the air.

As Cliff Corcoran wrote via Twitter this morning, “CC, AJ, Joba, Andy, Hughes, with Wang as the alternate? Yeah, that’d work.” Sounds good to me.

Categories : Pitching
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Record Last Week: 4-2 (39 RS, 36 RA)
Season Record: 78-46 (696 RS, 589 RA), 7.5 games up
Opponents This Week: vs. Texas (3 games), vs. White Sox (3 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Categories : Polls
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The Boston Red Sox are a good baseball team. They have a potent offense which, despite a slump after the All-Star Break, ranks up there among the best in the league. They have two of the top starters in the league. Their bullpen, though not as good as it was in April, is still solid. Yet despite how good they are, they’ve run into a team playing even better.

The Yankees flexed their bats once again last night, hammering Sox ace Josh Beckett for eight runs, including five home runs, in eight innings. Derek Jeter started the assault, belting the first pitch of the game into the Red Sox bullpen. Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez each added a blast, and Hideki Matsui had two for the second time in the series. Those five hits accounted for seven of the eight Yankee runs.

The Josh Beckett on the rubber last night was not the Josh Beckett who has pitched most of this season. His funk started last time out in Toronto, when he allowed seven runs in 5.1 innings. He labored a bit in that one, throwing 99 pitches. Last night it seemed a bit different. He ran into more issues with the long ball, but was still able to keep his pitch count at a decent level, and also kept throwing strikes. Though he gave up nine base hits, Beckett walked no one.

CC Sabathia steered clear of the free pass as well. Like Beckett, CC wasn’t at the height of his game, but he was much closer. Trouble brewed in the second, after the Yanks had staked CC to a two-run lead. Again it happened with two outs, after CC struck out the first two batters in the inning. Lowell, Baldelli, and Varitek went double-single-double, tying the score and prompting a collective groan from the Yankees faithful.

That’s as bad as things would get. After a double play helped avert trouble in the third, Robinson Cano made his second error of the night, this one costing the Yanks a run. They had built a 5-2 lead by that point, so the run didn’t hurt as much, but there’s simply no reason to hand the Red Sox additional opportunities. As said in the opening paragraph, they are a good team. They will hurt you if you let them.

Four runs over 6.2 innings might not look great in the box score, but it was still a quality effort by CC. He didn’t walk anyone, and kept his strike to ball ratio in good standing. The Sox did knock out eight base hits against him, but just three of them were doubles. There were no homers. Sabathia also beared down with runners on, as he held the Red Sox to just 2 for 9 with runners in scoring position.

(Oddly, the Yankees just put three men in scoring position all night, one of whom, Derek Jeter, scored on a Mark Teixeira single. Hey, when you hit five dingers, who needs runners in scoring position?)

The win caps a 7-3 road trip and gives the Yanks a 7.5 game lead in the East. That’s the same lead they had after the previous series. Again, Boston’s a good team that’s run into a team that’s playing just as well if not better. They’ve shaken the 0-8 stigma for good, and even put a dent in the “they can’t win at Fenway” argument with two wins this weekend.

You can say that the Yanks have sealed the division, and on October 4 you might prove to have been right. But there are still a number of good teams in the AL that the Yanks will have to face along the way, and they won’t tread lightly. They’ll have another test right away, as the Rangers, a game behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card, come to town starting Tuesday. Unfortunately, it looks like the Yanks will have to do the Sox a favor.

Categories : Game Stories
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Aug
23

Game 124 Spillover Thread III

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Phil wins the battle over the rust.

Categories : Game Threads
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Aug
23

Game 124 Spillover Thread II

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93 pitches for CC. Can he squeeze six more outs out of that arm?

Categories : Game Threads
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Mike Ashmore says Grant Duff is likely to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. So that’s four definites (Colin Curtis, Ian Kennedy, Brandon Laird, Austin Romine) and three maybes (Duff, Mike Dunn, Zach Kroenke). Double-A Trenton pitching coach Tommy Phelps will definitely coach out there.

Make sure you scroll down for tonight’s game thread.

Triple-A Scranton (2-1 win over Buffalo)
Kevin Russo & Yurendell DeCaster: both 3 for 4 – Russo doubled & scored a run
Ramiro Pena, Shelley Duncan & Reegie Corona: all 0 for 3, 1 K – Shelley drew a walk
Austin Jackson: 1 for 4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K
Colin Curtis: 0 for 4, 1 K
John Rodriguez: 0 for 2, 1 K, 1 HBP
Chris Stewart: 1 for 3, 1 R
Jason Hirsh: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 3-10 GB/FB – 65 of 89 pitches were strikes (73%) … 19 baserunners & 4 ER allowed in 21 IP with SWB
Mike Dunn: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 WP, 3-3 GB/FB – 17 of 30 pitches were strikes (56.7%)
Jon Albaladejo: 1 IP, zeroes, 3 K – 10 of 12 pitches were strikes

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Categories : Down on the Farm
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