Comments on: The home run that shouldn’t have been http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/ A New York Yankees Blog Wed, 15 Feb 2012 05:46:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Dwnflfan http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-527206 Dwnflfan Wed, 12 Aug 2009 03:19:51 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-527206 To quote "Major League": "Who gives a s***? It's gone!" To quote “Major League”:

“Who gives a s***? It’s gone!”

]]> By: godfather http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-526078 godfather Tue, 11 Aug 2009 21:41:48 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-526078 my god, now the statheads are "uncovering" windblown homers? these have been occurring like forever my god, now the statheads are “uncovering” windblown homers? these have been occurring like forever

]]> By: The Fallen Phoenix http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525995 The Fallen Phoenix Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:38:45 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525995 It's not <b>the</b> valid one. I'm not sure you <b>can</b> pick a single method or datum and claim that to be <b>the</b> valid one. It <i>might</i> be <b>a</b> valid one. Depending on context. ...long story short, I think we agree on this matter. I'm just doing a piss-poor job of communicating. It’s not the valid one. I’m not sure you can pick a single method or datum and claim that to be the valid one. It might be a valid one. Depending on context.

…long story short, I think we agree on this matter. I’m just doing a piss-poor job of communicating.

]]> By: The Fallen Phoenix http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525994 The Fallen Phoenix Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:37:21 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525994 All that said, I <b>think</b> it's a relatively simple exercise to control for, say, wind velocity. I think you do it quite well, for example, when you observe that Teixeira was quite capable of applying enough loft to the ball for it to have an increased chance of being caught in the very wind currents this model attributes to luck. The home run, as a result, is not important under this view, but what caused the home run to occur as a result. The more that we can attribute to Mark Teixeira's pure talent/skill, the better. I don't think the model that Mike introduces in this thread is one that can necessarily do that, but I think there are probably some opportunities it might present, and this subtlety was completely lost in my earlier posts. I should think before I type. All that said, I think it’s a relatively simple exercise to control for, say, wind velocity. I think you do it quite well, for example, when you observe that Teixeira was quite capable of applying enough loft to the ball for it to have an increased chance of being caught in the very wind currents this model attributes to luck.

The home run, as a result, is not important under this view, but what caused the home run to occur as a result. The more that we can attribute to Mark Teixeira’s pure talent/skill, the better. I don’t think the model that Mike introduces in this thread is one that can necessarily do that, but I think there are probably some opportunities it might present, and this subtlety was completely lost in my earlier posts.

I should think before I type.

]]> By: The Fallen Phoenix http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525992 The Fallen Phoenix Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:33:26 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525992 Basically, I was critiquing the use of the data from a results-oriented perspective; specifically, as impacting the game itself. A model that controls for, say, wind velocity <b>could</b> be valid in, for example, determining a player's "pure power:" or how much force a player can apply to a batted ball. That's actually very useful information for the purposes of talent evaluation; it's why a player like Adam Dunn has power-potential in just about all ballparks, but a player like Johnny Damon does not. When I said the information was (actually) valuable/useful, I misspoke. What I <b>should</b> have written was, "that is one of the contexts in which such information could be valuable." Put another way: controlling for wind-currents imparts information, which is more or less valuable depending on how it is applied (any value a datum might have is entirely context-derived, even if that context is an applied one). The context that this post was suggesting, however, was one that I opined to have zero value. Hence, my observing that the exercise was stupid. Basically, I was critiquing the use of the data from a results-oriented perspective; specifically, as impacting the game itself.

A model that controls for, say, wind velocity could be valid in, for example, determining a player’s “pure power:” or how much force a player can apply to a batted ball.

That’s actually very useful information for the purposes of talent evaluation; it’s why a player like Adam Dunn has power-potential in just about all ballparks, but a player like Johnny Damon does not.

When I said the information was (actually) valuable/useful, I misspoke. What I should have written was, “that is one of the contexts in which such information could be valuable.”

Put another way: controlling for wind-currents imparts information, which is more or less valuable depending on how it is applied (any value a datum might have is entirely context-derived, even if that context is an applied one). The context that this post was suggesting, however, was one that I opined to have zero value. Hence, my observing that the exercise was stupid.

]]> By: The Honorable Congressman Mondesi http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525988 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:20:29 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525988 Oh it was "jinxing <i>fuck</i>mouth," and it <i>was</i> awesome. Let's see... Here it is: http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/remembering-an-august-series-with-boston-15496/#comment-515270 Oh it was “jinxing fuckmouth,” and it was awesome. Let’s see… Here it is:

http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-515270

]]> By: Klemy http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525981 Klemy Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:08:27 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525981 Agreed. Well said. Agreed. Well said.

]]> By: jsbrendog http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525979 jsbrendog Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:06:24 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525979 i want to know who was the one who puled out the jinxing cockmouth for the pre red sox seires preview. that was priceless i want to know who was the one who puled out the jinxing cockmouth for the pre red sox seires preview. that was priceless

]]> By: Klemy http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525974 Klemy Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:00:31 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525974 Exactly the point I was trying to make above, before making it to your post. +1 Exactly the point I was trying to make above, before making it to your post. +1

]]> By: Klemy http://riveraveblues.com/2009/08/the-homerun-that-shouldnt-have-been-15701/#comment-525973 Klemy Tue, 11 Aug 2009 19:59:27 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=15701#comment-525973 Yes. And the wind is blowing at that height to soem extent most days, right? How often is there absolutely no breeze in any stadium at that height? Taking the existance of any wind at all out of any equation seems unrealistic to me. Yes. And the wind is blowing at that height to soem extent most days, right? How often is there absolutely no breeze in any stadium at that height? Taking the existance of any wind at all out of any equation seems unrealistic to me.

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