What’s up with Aceves?
ByMore often than not, Al Aceves has gotten the job done whenever Joe Girardi called on him this year. He was dynamite in the first half, posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a .637 OPS against in his first 22 outings. Opposing batters haven’t been too kind to Mr. Aceves since then, tattooing him to the tune of a 7.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 appearances since. Most point to his spot start in Minnesota and the shoulder fatigue/soreness that followed as the problem (correlation =/= causation!), but Aceves’ velocity is fine, and that’s the primary indicator of shoulder trouble.
The reality is that Aceves has had just three really bad outings since the break that are inflating his ERA. Let’s take a look at them one by one:
July 18th vs Detroit: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 15 pitches
With the Yanks up 2-0 (this was the Sabathia-Verlander duel), Aceves entered the game in the 8th and retired the first two batters (Placido Polanco & Miguel Cabrera) before giving up a solo jack to ex-Yank Marcus Thames. He retired Magglio Ordonez to end the inning and that was that. Hit Tracker says Thames’ shot would have been gone in a total of nine big league parks, but whatever. Thames has 38 homers in his last 564 plate appearances (not quite a full season’s worth), so the dude can crush the ball. Giving up a solo jack to him is no big deal in my book.
July 20th vs. Baltimore: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 11 pitches
Game tied at one in the top of the ninth, Aceves comes in with one out and Adam Jones on first after being plunked by Phil Coke. Jones stealssecond, but Melvin Mora pops out to center for the second out. Aceves is ordered to intentionally walk the molten hot Luke Scott (.310-.403-.638 in his previous 16 games), and then gets Nolan Reimold to fly out to left. Hideki Matsui homers in the bottom of the ninth and Aceves walk-offs with a win.
July 21st vs. Baltimore: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 12 pitches
With the Yanks up 6-4 in the 6th, Aceves comes in with a man on first and two outs. He gets Matt Wieters to fly out to left to end the inning, then sits down Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones in the 7th without incident. Done and done.
July 25th vs Oakland: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 13 pitches
Andy Pettitte departs with the bases loaded and one out, and Aceves gets the first batter he faces to pop out to first. Landon Powell singles to left on an 0-2 count (you may remember this pitch, it was a hanger right out over the plate that was flared over Jeter), Adam Kennedy singles back up the middle, and Orlando Cabrera drilled a double into right. K-Rob™ comes in and cleans the mess up. Aceves gets rocked.
On July 28th, we first learn of Aceves fatigued wing.
July 31st @ White Sox: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 39 pitches
Aceves starts the sixth with the Yanks down 6-5. He retires Scott Podsednik, Gordon Beckham, and Jim Thome on two fly balls and a groundout. He walks Paul Konerko to lead off the seventh, then gives up a single to AJ Pierzysnki. Carlos Quentin and Mark Kotsay then fly out, but Jayson Nix walks in a well fought eight pitch at bat. Chris Getz singles in two runs, then Nix steals home when Jorge Posada throws to second on Getz’s steal attempt. Podsednik singles through the 3.5 hole for another run and Aceves’ day is done. Two straight clunkers.
August 5th @ Toronto: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 25 pitches
With the Yanks up 3-2 in the sixth, Ace sits down Edwin Encarnacion, Rod Barajas, and Joe Inglett down in order on two strikeouts and a little dribbler that landed in front of the plate. Marco Scutaro homers to lead off the seventh after the Yanks tack on three more runs, then Aaron Hill hits a weak liner to short for an out. Phil Coke comes in to face the lefties Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay. Not a terrible outing, not a great one. Acceptable.
August 7th vs. Boston: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 37 pitches
The 15-inning marathon game. Aceves walks Chris Woodward, then allows a single to Jacoby Ellsbury after two quick ground outs. He retires the next seven batters in order with only one ball leaving the infield. Well done.
August 10th vs. Toronto: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 42 pitches
Enters the game in the sixth with Toronto up 5-4. Sets down the side in order in his first inning of work, then gives up singles with two outs in the seventh to Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. He sets down the next seven in order. Again, well done. It’s probably worth noting that with this game, Aceves had thrown 104 pitches in three outings over the last six days.
August 16th # Seattle: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 48 pitches
His only other real stinker, Aceves pitches a scoreless sixth but allows a double to Jack Wilson and a single to Ichiro! in the process. The next inning starts with a Junior single and a Franklin Gutierrez double, but Jack Hannahan grounds out to second for the first out. Kenji Johjima is hit by a pitch to load the bases, but Aceves strikes out Ryan Langerhans for the second out (you probably remember this, he blew three straight fastballs right by him for three swinging strikes). Ace then hits Jack Wilson to force in a run, and is taken out in favor of Chad Gaudin. Gaudin allows all three inherited runners to score and then some before recording the final out of the inning.
If Gaudin got the third out right away, Aceves’ line would have been a much prettier 1.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. Not great obviously, but not nearly the eyesore.
Then there was last night. He escaped that bases loaded, one out, jam with a 1-2-3 double play, then got Ryan Sweeney and Landon Powell to ground out for two quick outs in the sixth. Jack Cust hit that towering homer that just kept carrying and carrying out to center, but Aceves got Tommy Everidge to line out to second to end the inning. With most of the fan base clamoring for Phil Hughes in the seventh, Ace actually struck out the first two batters of the frame. Rajai Davis singled and stole second, then came home on Mark Ellis single back up the middle. Kurt Suzuki singled weakly to the left side and Phil Coke came in to escape the jam. It wasn’t a great performance, but hardly a disaster.
So by my count, there’s only three real stinkers in there. Two of them came in back-to-back outings which were sandwiched around the announcement that Aceves had a sore/fatigued shoulder, and a third that wouldn’t have been so bad had a whole bunch of inherited runners been stranded. Perhaps the problem is that Aceves was so great in the first half of the year that we’ve been spoiled and come to expect that every outing. As RLYW has noted, Aceves has been outperforming his FIP all year, so this just might be a good ol’ statistical correction.
The beautiful thing about having a seven game lead and a 99.26073% chance to make the playoffs is that the team can err on the side of caution. If Aceves’ shoulder is in fact barking, they can take it easy and rest him, perhaps even sticking him on the disabled list so they can get a warm body to replace him. It’s gotten kind of tiresome to see people speculate that so-and-so must be hurt because he’s not pitching well; guys can just struggle for no apparent reason, you know. It’s called a slump. As the number three option out of the ‘pen, Aceves is going to play a big role in October, and there’s no reason for the Yanks to screw around with such a big lead in August.
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It’s ok. I still :YankeesLogo: Aceves.
or should his name be A-Save-Us
Even the best BPs have stinkers now and then. It happens. As for Aceves, while he may be tired, there is also the likelihood the league is adjusting to him. He’ll just have to do the same.
K-Rob™ comes in and cleans the mess up.
I don’t know if I like that nickname. Too close to K-Rod, a/k/a “Watch me walk the bases loaded and blow this save”.
(BTW, my new favorite baseball nickname? Texas hurler Derek Holland. “The Dutch Oven”.)
Kung Fu Panda is still my favorite (although the Dutch Oven is up there).
Oh, yeah, Kung Fu Panda still rocks. I was more saying my NEW favorite nickname, as in the one I’ve heard most recently.
Sorry for not emphasizing it for clarity. My bad.
You should be ashamed. Commence seppuku immediately.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related (safe)
You know, I like Kung Fu Panda, but it’s kind of a Jose Molina rip-off. He’s the original Panda.
It was only a matter of time until
Shawn ChaconAl Aceves came down to earth I guess…Eh, I can see why you might make that comparison, but Aceves has better stuff and is far more effective at getting the K than Chacon ever was. I’d take Ace any day of the week.
Agreed. Aceves generates more K’s and fewer BB’s than Chacon, making him a much better reliever. And, pitcher in general.
Better control, better swing-and-miss stuff.
August 10th vs. Toronto… It’s probably worth nothing that with this game, Aceves had thrown 104 pitches in three outings over the last six days.
Oh, if only we had a starting pitcher in the bullpen capable of pitching multiple high-leverage innings who could help soak up some of those outs we need to get in the 6th and 7th inning! If only!
Curse you, cruel fate who has denied us a second quality starting pitcher in the bullpen who could tag-team with Aceves brilliantly! Curse you!!!!!!
+65
ICWUDT.
Joba?
YOU MANIACS, GOD DAMN YOUS! GOD DAMN YOUS ALL TO HELL!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
(NSFW-profanity)
“Yeah? Well you’re not allowed to rent here anymore!” – Randal Graves (to rude customer)
“YEEEEAAAAHHH!!!!” – Jay (standing outside of the movie store)
IN THIS WORLD GONE MAD, WE WILL NOT SPANK THE MONKEY! THE MONKEY WILL SPANK US!!!
Yeah, because I would much rather have Hughes come down with a shoulder problem than Aceves. Perhaps the Yankees are concerned about overusing Hughes based on their experiences with Joba last year and Aceves this year.
He’s being underused (5.2 innings before last night in 20 games I think) and was rusty as a result of that last night
You’re assuming that is was rust. It’s possible that he has been throwing as well during bullpen sessions, etc. If he wasn’t throwing as well on the side, then it would explain why he hasn’t been used as much.
Correlation =/= Causation
Yeah, because I would much rather have Hughes come down with a shoulder problem than Aceves.
Yes, because clearly I was saying that instead of the Yankees overusing Aceves and letting Hughes rot, we should overuse Hughes and let Aceves rot.
I wasn’t advocating a middle ground between the two where both pitchers pitch a decent amount of innings and neither of them is used too much or too little. I totally wasn’t doing that at all.
You’re assuming that there is a middle ground.
There is always a middle ground.
Not always. It’s possible that having Hughes throw some of those innings that Aceves threw would have led to injuries for both of them.
And it’s possible that Hughes throwing some of those innings would have lead to no injuries for either of them.
I can make up plausible hypotheticals too.
Furthermore, the outcome you propose (both Hughes and Aceves pitch an equal number of innings and both get hurt) does not mean that there wasn’t a middle ground.
It just means the middle ground didn’t lead to the desired result (that of both of them pitching well and remaining healthy).
So, your “they both could get hurt” is a bit of a red herring.
Your middle ground statement assumes that there is some point where both of them are unhurt. That doesn’t need to be equal innings for both of them, it could be a more than half the innings for one (likely Aceves) than the other. It’s possible that shifting even one inning of work from Aceves to Hughes would lead to both of them being injured.
It’s probably more likely that shifting a few innings to Hughes would not change things for either of them, so it won’t matter either way.
Your middle ground statement assumes that there is some point where both of them are unhurt.
No, it doesn’t. It assumes that there is some point where their innings are more equally distributed, and that this more equal distribution MAY lead to both of them pitching better and healthier, based on what we know about pitching usage rhythms.
I didn’t say my plan was ironclad and foolproof. I said my plan was a smart plan. Smart plans don’t always work out, but that doesn’t mean they’re not smart.
Stop creating doomsday scenarios to put words in my mouth.
HEY!
lets lay off the um, fruitless hypotheticals a bit…
The treatment of Hughes is criminal at this point. People are WAYYYYYYYYYY too nonchalant about it.
In what way?
His IP for the year is going to end up sub-80. That’s ridiculous. He went from getting 15-ish a month to 5.
Actually, he went from getting 30-ish a month to getting 5.
Fatigue. He’s been a workhorse this season…
People are just adjusting to him, and I think Joe needs to learn that he loses considerable effectiveness if he goes more than one inning (brilliant Boston game notwithstanding). Also, it seems like he needs to bear down more with two outs. He’s around the plate so much, and that’s great, but maybe bounce some with two outs or two strikes and prey on the fact that guys are expecting him to throw strikes.
Not too much to say about this one except that I’m not too worried about Ace.
are the yankees trying to decide if aceves can be the fifth starter next year?
Doubt it.
The 2010 rotation probably looks like this:
1-CC written in stone
2-AJ written in stone
3-Joba written in stone
4-Hughes written in stone
5-Andy if he pitches well and comes back on a reasonable deal, IPK and Gaudin next in the pecking order, and free agent options that are reasonable on short-termers like Escobar, Sheets, Hudson, Duchscherer, etc., with Wang due back in August/September
I think Ace and Coke are probably permanent bullpen options now. Just my hunch.
I’m pretty sure Coke’s days as a starter are behind him. Ace could catch a spot start now and then, which is something I never expect Coke to do save for some unforeseen disaster.
Give me Sheets or give me death. I don’t care about his injury history. I am an unabashed Sheets nut-hugger.
Agreed on all points. I’ve got a nagging feeling Sheets will end up in Texas, though, they were all over him last winter.
Duke still intrigues me, though. I’d love to give him an incentive laden deal and have him compete with Gaudin and IPK for the fifth spot. Potential diamond in the rough.
I’d like the Yankees to sign Usain Bolt to do anything. Pitch, run, it doesn’t matter. The dude is sick.
Maybe we can sign John Calipari to be our Senior Vice President of Quality Control and Policy/Procedure Adherence…
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAW, TOO SOOOOOOOOOOOOON???????
a) what would it take to get Bolt and Gay?
b) yes, too soon. wait til the weekend when we’re liquored up (you brought her, you liquor)
a) what would it take to get Bolt and Gay?
Not gonna touch that one either.
The Yanks also hold a club option on Mitre. Not that I’d be too enthused with him.
Sergio Mitre 2010 = Brett Tomko 2009
He’ll be around in the Spring, may get a callup during the year if we have a rash on injuries, probably get DFA’d at some point and end up pitching for some crappy team like the Nationals or Reds or Blue Jays.
Isnt Gaudin under control (if the Yanks want to) next year?
He is. 2010 is his last arb year, I believe.
Which is why I included him in my 5th Starter Spring Derby, with IPK and possibly Andy or Free Agent Reclamation Project X.
Speaking of 2010 5th Starter Free Agent Reclamation Project X, what’s on the top of MLBTR right now?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....pitch.html
He’ll be around in the Spring, may get a callup during the year if we have a rash on injuries, probably get DFA’d at some point and end up pitching for some crappy team like the Nationals or Reds or Blue Jays.
…and then pitch nine innings of one-hit shut out ball the first time he faces us.
fucker.
Oh yea, I missed that. I gotcha now.
He’s also still in his Arb years, right?
Yup. Mitre and Gaudin both have one more arb year.
You can do all the stat analysis you want. Throw velocity readings in there too. The fact is he hasnt been the same pitcher since that spot start.
And you guys want Hughes to start starting games.
Yeah, you tell ‘em, Steve-Dave!
Why do you hate understanding WHY things happen so very, very much?
Because understanding things can sometimes possibly involve computers. Computers are the bane of Bo’s existence (his commenting on the internet via a computer notwithstanding.)
Read the post. “Most point to his spot start in Minnesota and the shoulder fatigue/soreness that followed as the problem (correlation =/= causation!), but Aceves’ velocity is fine“
damn, forgot to add the rest…”and that’s the primary indicator of shoulder trouble.”
Aceves serves to many meatballs for my taste, but other than that he’s a useful reliever. He’s overrated in my opinion, as indicated by his FIP this year and last. His role in the pen should be nothing more than what it is; the first guy out of the pen in relief of a starter who hasn’t given you length with a lead of 3 + runs or within at least 3 runs.
Aceves is far too willing to throw the ball right over the plate in any count, and it’s especially frustrating when the count is in his favor. I think we also forget how young he is. He’s learning just like our other young relievers. This isn’t the Mexican league. I’m not worried about him…because this is what he is.
Though he’s probably is learning like you said, but he’s 26 now and is probably close to being finished product I think.
Those are interesting opinions. I don’t have any reason to dispute what you say, but my thinking, in general the last few years, is that most pitchers are afraid to throw the ball right over the plate in ANY count. I’ve not heard anyone complain of a pitcher being too willing to throw it over the plate. You’d probably say that there’s a difference between throwing it down the middle and throwing a strike at the knees on the corner, which no doubt is true. But having a guy willing to let ‘em hit it is a breath of fresh air, even if it does lead to homers.
This is one reason I think baseball needs a bit of a rules change, maybe in the liveliness of the ball, or the legal dimensions of the bat: Pitchers like Aceves are rare, because modern pitchers are, understandably, really scared of giving up homers. If we can squelch that fear just a little, pitchers will eventually catch up and begin throwing more strikes. This will start a domino effect, where pitchers get more contact, fewer walks, and become overall more efficient. Starters will last deeper into games, even with modern pitch limits, and the need for marginal-level MLB pitchers will diminish. Games will move along faster, and be less boring.
It’s a delicate balance…take away too much offense and the fans might get upset, but we definitely could use a few less homers.
[Somebody turn off my teleprompter, please.]
[Somebody turn off my teleprompter, please.]
I’m Ron Burgundy?
Seriously, though, in terms of rule changes, I’m all for starting with the bat. You can eliminate the constantly-breaking maple bats and regulate the width discrepancies in regards to the extremely thin-handled/thick-ended bats all under the guise of player safety and environmentalism (i.e., we want fewer broken bats because it means fewer trees destroyed).
The unintended/intended side effect of going back to the older, heavier, sturdier, thicker ash bats is that the ball won’t travel as far and you’ll reduce offense and homers (slightly).
He’s tired…normal variance…the league getting more and more looks at him.
[Warning, non-data supported prediction/opinion follows.]
But don’t worry, in the playoffs, there will be more batters who choke trying to hit him, than batters who will make HIM choke. The Ganstah is a tough cookie.
All in all, if you had to make a guess as to who will have a better career… Alfredo Aceves or Ian Kennedy…
Who would you choose?
Too early to tell.
/Joe Morgan’d
Okay, I know that you were taking a little bit of a shot at me but IETC anyway.
Heh my bad. I wasn’t trying to be offensive. It was more of a shot at Morgan.
That’s why he asked for a guess.
Well then, I would have a totally random guess. Eeenie, meenie, minie…ACE.
Or should I say, not totally random, but random enough that I really am more or less playing the eenie meenie minie mo game here.
Milbarge: For god’s sake, man, show some balls!
Fitz-Hume: I think it’s a little late to try and impress them…
Nothing wrong with a good game of eenie meenie minie mo every now and then.
Ooooh, tough one…
I’ll take Aceves. Barely. IPK’s got the upside and ability to be a decent starter (and decent starter >>> Aceves), but his future is just so cloudy (struggles and injuries) that you wonder if he puts it together after all.
Aceves. But I could very, very, very easily be wrong. I wouldn’t bet money on it, put it that way.
Ian Kennedy. I think he has the stuff to be a solid back-end starter (if he locates his fastball well, his change is a true out pitch) and a decent third offering.
I think Aceves will have a solid couple years as a reliever/swingman and hang around into his mid-30s, but I think Kennedy will have a full-time gig as a starter for the Yanks for a couple years, and then get traded to the NL where he’ll have a full-time starting gig for several more years, and then hang around for a couple more years unless he doesn’t want to.
ian kennedy = right handed ted lilly eventually?
ian kennedy = right handed
ted lillykei igawa eventually?ian kennedy = right handed
ted lillykei igawaeventuallyright now?Why would you say that?
Because he has a very dim view of IPK’s upside, most likely.
Kennedy is not everyone’s cup of tea.
at least he didnt say pavano…
I could see this happening.
Ace is WAY overrated. People get way too excited with a guy who has had some initial success – see Kevin Maas. The guy, at age 25, had a 4.12 ERA in 43 innings in AAA last year, the same AAA where Bret-I’m-not-Farve Tomko posted an 0.64 ERA and Casey-I’m-an-ex-Red-Sox Fossum posted a 2.92 ERA in 61 innings. Hell, Kei Igawa had a 3.45 ERA same year as Ace in 156 innings. And its not like he was so much better there at age 26 either – he had an ERA of 3.80 in 23 innings before his callup. Of course, you could discount ERA if the guy had great pure stuff – but he doesn’t. Fastball is average at best, has a good breaking ball and a nice change, but neither one is all that special. Good control, but command – i.e. his tendency to throw right over the plate – doesn’t remind anyone of Greg Maddux. Simple fact is, he isn’t as good as Robertson, he isn’t as good as Melancon will be once they finally decide to leave him in the bigs and build up his confidence, and he isn’t even as good as a non-injured Bruney, at least in the long run. Better than Coke sure, but should be in the middle of the pecking order in the pen.
[...] discussing Aceves’ usage and health, and late last week, Mike looked at how Aceves has had few clunkers that inflate his numbers. As Ace has been outpitching his FIP all season, Mike noted, this period of mediocrity could just [...]
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AAAAAAAAAAAAW, TOO SOOOOOOOOOON?????