Archive for September, 2009
Recapping the walk-offs, all 15 of ‘em
Posted by: | CommentsEveryone loves walk-offs, and the Yanks sure have spoiled us this year. Moshe at TYU took the time to recap all 15 of those suckers, from Melky’s 14th inning jack against Oakland to Luis Castillo’s dropped popup to last night’s Kyle Farnsworth special. Good times, good times. Check it out.
Game 159 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsMeanwhile, Boston’s backup backup catcher is pitching…
Game 159: Done at home, temporarily
Posted by: | Comments… and six months later, the Yankees will play the final home game of their season tonight. Of course, the Bombers will be back in the Boogie Down next week to kick off the ALDS, but not after this weekend’s vacation in Tampa. Making the start will be Joba Chamberlain, who in his last time out was brilliant for six innings despite a late, two-run stilllookingforinformationball from David Ortiz. He’ll be opposed by Robinson Tejeda, a Phillies and Rangers cast-off who has found some success in KC despite 47 walks in 68.2 IP.
This game means nothing, but it’s good to see the A-lineup playing. I was worried Joe Girardi would go a little overboard with the whole resting the regulars thing, but I guess not. Here’s your lineup:
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Matsui, DH
Posada, C
Cano, 2B
Swisher, RF
Melky, CF
And on the mound, Jobber Chamberlain.
Note: If you crave some meaningful baseball, check out the Twins and Tigers over on ESPN. Carl Pavano vs. Eddie Bonine, Tigers win and they’re three up with just four to play. Twins win, and we have ourselves a race.
Grading Sterling
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yanks clinched the AL East Sunday evening, John Sterling let out his usual “Thaaaaaaaa Yankees Win!” warble, with an added twist to include the division race. It was arguably his most … um … enthusiastic call of the season, and Joe DeLessio of The New Yorker graded it out. Despite the lack of buildup leading up to the moment (everyone knew they’d clinch, eventually), Sterling still walks away with a sterling 26.5 pts out of 35, pun intended. Give it a listen and a read, nice laugh to end the workday.
Performing against the best
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees didn’t get to where they are by beating up on the weaklings of the league. After going a combined 2-12 against the Red Sox and Angels in the first half, but rebounded to go 12-2 against those clubs in the second half. We write things like “it’s still early, they’ll figure out,” and we’re usually greeted with “it’s May, it’s not that early” responses, but by gosh, things got figured out long before it was too late. Amazing. But I digress.
Anyway, the Yankees did not get to where they are right now by getting fat against the lesser teams. They lead all thirty big league clubs in AVG (.285, tied with Anaheim), OBP (.363, next is .351), and SLG (.480, next is .453), and before anyone tries The Bandbox Defense™, you should know that the Yanks have a .357 OBP and a .470 SLG on the road, both of which would still lead the big leagues. And as Gordon Edes points out, they aren’t just piling up those numbers against the David Hernandezes and Andy Sonnanstines of the world either.
Allow me to quote:
Best against the best: When the best hitters playing this October face the best pitchers, how can we predict who will come up big? Well, we employed statistics calculated on billjamesonline.net to get an idea. James breaks down how batters fared by the quality of pitchers faced, based on pitchers’ ERA. The best pitchers were considered those with ERAs at 3.50 or less, which generally covers a staff ace and in some cases a No. 2, a closer, and top-shelf setup men.
Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Torii Hunter, Matt Kemp and Orlando Hudson have posted some of the best numbers among the playoff qualifiers against the best pitchers. Cabrera is batting .359 against the best, though just three of his 32 home runs have come in those 142 at-bats. Holliday is batting .352 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and a .997 OPS against the best, while A-Rod is batting .284 with nine HRs, 22 RBIs, and a 1.014 OPS. Rodriguez, in fact, has more home runs and a higher OPS against the elite class than he had against the dregs.
[snip]
What about some of the big-name boppers? Albert Pujols (.272, four, 12, .804 OPS) has held his own, while Ryan Howard is batting just .224, but has hit 13 home runs and knocked in 27 runs. Derek Jeter is batting .292, while teammate Mark Teixeira has seven HRs and 22 RBIs to go with a .246 average. Manny Ramirez, the most feared bat in the ’08 postseason, has a so-so .279 average with five home runs and 12 RBIs.
The Red Sox lineup, loaded with All-Stars, has not put up numbers against superior pitching. David Ortiz is at .208, five and 15. Four other of Boston’s best hitters are at .220 or lower: Jason Bay (.204), Kevin Youkilis (.204), Dustin Pedroia (.206) and Victor Martinez (.220). Catcher Jason Varitek is batting .139.
Of course the problem with this study is the almighty sample size. It’s wonderful that A-Rod is bringing the pwn to the league’s best arms, but there’s just 34 pitchers in the AL with an ERA under 3.50 (min. 60 IP), and three of them are A-Rod’s teammates. How many plate appearances can he have against the other guys? There just isn’t much predictive value here. A-Rod is no more or less likely to do well in the postseason because of those numbers, and besides, postseason success doesn’t hinge on one guy. Everyone must contribute, and if someone fails, then it’s up to the other 24-guys to pick up the slack. It’s a team effort, and we see it happen every year. Yet again, I digress.
The old adage is that power pitching wins in October, and it’s true. As a team, the Yankees are hitting .273-.380-.478 off power pitches (B-Ref defines “power pitchers” as guys that combine to strikeout or walk at least 28% of the batters they face). That criteria includes pitchers like Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, basically the three best pitchers the Yankees could face in the AL portion of the playoffs. The Yanks have ten such “power pitchers” on their staff, including all five members of the rotation and four of its five best relievers (Al Aceves misses the cut).
Does that bode well for October? It certainly seems like it does. Boston is hitting off .258-.359-.442 off power arms, obviously very good, but the Angels? Just .245-.324-.380. Dee-troit? .229-.319-.389. Suddenly I even better about the Yankees playoff chances than I did before. You?
Yanks face a few postseason decisions
Posted by: | CommentsThere aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?
In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.
Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:
Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.
Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.
That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.
Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:
Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIPAndy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?
There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.
Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.
If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
2010 Draft: Nats clinch top pick
Posted by: | CommentsIt seemed inevitable pretty much all summer, but once the Pirates took down the Dodgers Monday afternoon, the Nationals officially clinched at least a tie for the baseball’s worst record, thus securing the top pick in the 2010 Draft (they also had the worst record last year, which acts as the tiebreaker). Tampa Bay was the first team in MLB history to have back-to-back first overall picks, taking David Price and Tim Beckham in 2007 and 2008, respectively. It took just two years for another team to turn that trick, and the Nats will have a chance to add Las Vegas uberprospect Bryce Harper to last year’s top choice, righty Stephen Strasburg.
In all likelihood, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will round out the top three selections in some order. By clinching the best record in baseball, the Yanks have locked into the final pick of the first round, #32 overall (Texas and Tampa failed to sign their first rounders). The Yanks could always forfeit that pick for signing a Type-A free agent. Our 2010 Draft Tracker will be up shortly after the end of the season.
The A.J. and Jose show
Posted by: | CommentsAs Juan Miranda‘s line drive literally off of Kyle Farnsworth escaped the Royals’ fielders and Eric Hinske scampered to the plate, the Yankees came together last night to celebrate their 15th walk-off win of the season. Juan Miranda became the latest victim of the Walk-Off Pie, and with their 102nd win, the Yanks opened a season-high 10.5-game lead over the Red Sox.
Lost in the feel-good defeat of a much-maligned former Yankee was another solid start by A.J. Burnett. Joe touched upon Burnett’s outing in the recap, but it warrants a closer look. Burnett went 6.1 innings, and he didn’t give up much. The Royals managed to plate two runs — one earned — on three hits and three walks. Burnett struck out eight on the night.
For A.J., last night’s outing was another in a string of good September starts. After a rough five weeks in August and September, Burnett has now surrendered four earned runs over his last 19 innings. He has surrendered 17 hits and just nine walks in that span while striking out 25. In fact, if we look at Burnett’s bad start against the Orioles, we see that, after surrendering a grand slam to Brian Roberts, Burnett was nearly untouchable. That day, he retired 17 of the last 19 batters he faced and threw 5.2 one-hit innings.
If we head back to Sept. 8, we see yet another good A.J. Burnett start. Against Tampa, he threw six innings and allowed one run on four hits and three walks. He also struck out eight that day. So over his last five starts, he has thrown 32 innings with a 2.81 ERA and has given up 28 hits and 14 walks while striking out 37. That’s not too shabby for a second or third starter.
There is, however, a downside to A.J.’s success. As Steve Lombardi concisely puts it in a color-coded post, Burnett’s success has come with Jose Molina behind the plate. Throughout September, Molina has been A.J.’s caddy. In August, during A.J.’s bad starts — an early August debacle against the White Sox and a late August shellacking by the Red Sox — Jorge Posada was catching.
And so we fear what this means. As Joe speculated last week, it appears as though Joe Girardi will pair up A.J. Burnett and Jose Molina during the playoffs. Jorge Posada would ride the bench and be available to come into the game the minute Burnett is removed. The Yanks, however, contend that Posada sat out not due to A.J.’s pitching but because of his sore neck. I report; you decide.
It’s hard to stress how much of an offensive blackhole Molina has been this year. His hit today broke an 0-for-19 streak, and his triple slash line is .215/.295/.262. Jorge, meanwhile, is hitting .290/.369/.534. Molina’s VORP is currently -6.7; Jorge’s is 35.1. Molina has contributed -9.0 runs above (below?) average at the plate while Jorge’s contribution is a positive 19.7. Get the picture?
Joe Girardi can get cute with the lineup if he wants to. It is, after all, his team. If he honestly and truly believes that A.J. Burnett is that much better of a pitcher with Jose Molina behind the plate, then so be it. I remain skeptical and shudder to see the lineup card when Burnett takes the mound next week in Game 2 or 3 of the ALDS.
Vizcaino, Warren, Paredes & Medchill among NY-Penn League’s top prospects
Posted by: | CommentsContinuing with their league top 20 series, Baseball America named Ryan Westmoreland the top prospect of the Short Season NY-Penn League. Four Yankee farmhands made the list: Arodys Vizcaino at #3, Adam Warren at #12, Jimmy Paredes at #14, and Neil Medchill at #18. The subscriber only scouting report on Vizcaino says that he “could have a plus curveball to go with a plus-plus fastball down the road,” but he’ll need to work on his changeup to stick as a starter. An unnamed NL scout loves Warren’s pitchability, and one league manager dropped an Adam Lind comp on Medchill.
The South Atlantic League list comes out this Friday, so get ready for some Manny Banuelos love.



