It is, I find, sometimes easy to forget that A.J. Burnett is making $16.5 million this year. He’s not the big dog in the starting rotation; that honor is reserved for CC. He doesn’t have the same Yankee cachet as Derek, A-Rod or Mark Teixeira either. And yet, there he is, pulling down a check for $634,615.39 every two weeks.
What is not easy to forget is how poorly A.J. Burnett has pitched lately. Since throwing a seven-inning, two-hit, zero-earned run game against Tampa Bay on July 27, Burnett has been nothing better than medicore with starts careening from good to awful. Over his last seven starts spanning 42.2 innings, Burnett is 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA. While he’s striking out a batter an inning, he has issued 19 walks and given up seven home runs. Opponents are hitting .287/.361/.456 against him, and that includes 7.2 innings of one-hit ball he threw against Boston in the 15-inning game on August 7.
As the Yankees hit the stretch drive — note the new Magic Number counter in the right-hand sidebar — the team is going to look to Burnett to pitch out of his funk. Right now, their pitching hopes rest on CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, and an effective Burnett would do wonders for this team’s October chances. Based on his season so far, though, there is hope that he could snap out of it and reel off a great run of starts.
With his start last night, Burnett has now thrown 27 games this year, and he season breaks down neatly into thirds. Through his first nine starts, he was bad. At just 2-2 through May 22, he had thrown 58 innings with an ERA of 5.28. He had struck out 50 but had walked 27 and allowed 10 home runs. Then, he turned up his game. Over his next 11 starts, he went 69.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA. He was 8-2 in that stretch and struck out 63. His walk total — 36 — was still too high, but he limited the longballs to just five.
Now, Bad Burnett, winless since July ended, is back, and Jason Rosenberg at IIATMS wonders if this streakiness is what Burnett will be. He writes:
Has any big ticket free agent been more under-the-radar, more in-the-shadows than AJ Burnett? If any other team, and I mean ANY, had signed Burnett and he posted the numbers he has thus far on the Yanks, is there any doubt there’d be some “overrated” or “bust” chatter? Yet, drafting behind CC, Teix and the rest of the shiny stars on the Yanks, AJ has been able to escape the scorn of the NY media. Does he get a free pass due to his cream pie surprises and he seems to be well-liked by all?…
What about his “value”? According to FanGraphs, AJ’s WAR is just 2.4, his lowest in years. Granted, we’re not done with the season, but AJ’s not delivering on his promise. And as far as dollar value earned, he’s at $10.9m (well below his annual salary of over $16m and prorated season-to-date salary paid of $13.6m). By comparison, AJ’s WAR last year was 5.7 and his dollar value earned was $25.5m.
Waaaaay back when AJ was signed, I called him an “expensive station car”, an analogy which several people seemed to enjoy. The smartest thing AJ did (besides having that opt-out option and having a career year at the same time) was not letting his ego get in the way of the decision process. He knew he wasn’t going to be the top dog on the Yanks staff and was seemingly OK with this fact (getting an $80m+ contract can do that). Not too dissimilar to his time in TOR when he thrived behind Doc Halladay or even in FLA behind Beckett. He hasn’t been asked to be the horse who carries the club. Merely be very good. He hasn’t been very good very often (though, at times he has) and he hasn’t yet earned his payroll. But he’s gone out there every turn and given the Yanks 6+ innings of decent performance. How would he have handled being expected to be The Ace of any other team?
Jason brings up some interesting questions to consider, but while those make for a good thought experiment, the reality is far simpler: The Yankees will need A.J. Burnett to rediscover his touch from June and July that made him one of the best pitchers in the AL for 11 starts. All of the walk-off cream pies in the world can’t disguise the fact that, right now, the Yankees aren’t getting their money’s worth out of their second starter.
The strike outs are there; the control and poise on the mound are slipping away. When push comes to shove, the Yankees will put their season into the hands of Burnett, a player who numerous commentators have noted will be making his first post-season start this year. Hopefully, Good A.J. will show up when the time comes.
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