Sep
28
Link Dump: Aroldis Chapman Edition
ByCuban southpaw Aroldis Chapman is primed to be a hot topic this winter, and just like with every other big name free agent, the Yankees figure to be interested in his services. Let’s round up the latest news surrounding the 21-yr old…
- Major League Baseball officially declared Chapman a free agent over the weekend, so he could technically sign with any team today, if he wanted.
- Back in July when he originally defected, I asked Keith Law what he thought about him during one of his ESPN chats. Here’s what he said: “I talked to a longtime scout – I mean, been at this 40 years – in the spring who said he was the best young LHP he’d ever seen. On good days he’ll touch 100 with a slider in the upper 80s, but he hasn’t been that guy every time out – I talked to another scout who saw him last year, I believe in Beijing, who had him topping out around 90 – and there are all kinds of rumors as to why. The upside probably puts him into $40-50 million territory, if not more …”
- Here’s the PitchFX data for Chapman’s start against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic. As you can see, he topped out at 100.2 mph, but it looks like he tired because his velo dropped after 40 pitches or so. That’s not a really big concern, no one’s in tip-top shape in March.
- Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus used some historical data translate Chapman’s stats in Cuba to the low levels of the minors here, and while the 9.3 K/9 is pretty, the 2.5 HR/9 and 7.4 BB/9 are awful. However, four of his closest statistical comps (Brian Fuentes, Mike Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink, and Oliver Perez) have gone on to have varying degrees of big league success.
- Chapman would probably rank as one of the top 25 prospects in the game according to Baseball America’s Jim Callis, although he wouldn’t supplant Jesus Montero as the Yanks’ top farmhand. No one tops the Jesus.
- And last, but certainly not least, here’s a clip of the kid in action.
86 Comments»
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For some reason, every time I see/hear/think about this guy El Duque just pops right into my mind which is weird because I was only 7 when Hernandez made his debut with the Yankees in 1998. I want this kid.
haha, i was… 7 also, and i loved el duque. I think Aroldis, around Yankee players, will realize that he has to work hard.
Wow. I feel old.
Holy crap. 7?! Good Mo, I thought I was young…
I feel REALLY old!
I wish we sign him like… today!
He’s got top 3 draft pick written all over him if he had to go through the amateur draft.
not to nitpick but I’m almost positive Cuban league takes place over the winter so Chapman should be in his best October shape in march.
It does, but Chapman tried to defect in the spring of 2008 and failed, so he was suspended from the winter 08-09 Cuban National Series season and the Beijing Games. The WBC was the first time he’d pitched competitively in almost a year.
So, he wasn’t tired, but he was likely rusty.
Big George: The Force is strong with him. The tall Cuban must not
become a Red Sock.
Cashman: If he could be turned, he would become a powerful ally.
Big George: Yes. YES. He would be a great asset. Can it be done?
Cashman: He will join us or die, my master.
Theo Epstein would like to think he is Luke Skywalker, actually he’s Jar Jar Binks.
Bill James = General Akbar
“IT’S A TRAP!!”
http://pix.motivatedphotos.com.....ackbar.jpg (safe)
http://www.gametrailers.com/us.....bar/295157
SFW
+1
Dustin Pedroia: An Ewok
nah not enough hair….
but mike axisa made a hairy move by picking up leftwich the day he got demoted to backup. burns….so..good..
Youk = Salacious Crumb?
http://farm1.static.flickr.com.....fb6a93.jpg
Not ugly enough.
Youk: The Rancor
http://conspiracygrimoire.com/.....rancor.jpg
Nope, he doesn’t complain nearly as much as Youkilis.
If he could only refine harness mechanics and control, he’d be beastly…for the EIGHTH!!!
Joba/Aroldis/Hughes/Mo = Best Bullpen eva
If you can believe the radar readings, I have the kid topping out at 95 mph (153 km/hr). The big roundhouse curve was at about 70, and the slider in the low to mid-80s.
This is the first time I’ve come across his stats.
Looks like his arm hasn’t been abused. Obviously this doesn’t include any international competitions he pitched in.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=9382
why are you re-linking the BP article that is in the above post?
Because I was citing it directly…
Why not?
I dunno. Any player who has Oliver Perez as a statistical comp… well, I just can’t seem to get that excited about.
I mean, he’s a southpaw flamethrower. Why isn’t Koufax his comp? Or at least Frank Tanana? Ollie Perez? Sheesh!
Yeah that Perez comparison effectively harshed my buzz.
Or mellow. Yeah. Mellow.
Meh, if Oliver Perez were still 21, I’d want him. It’s the fact that Perez is now 28 and has gotten WORSE in the past 7 years that makes him craptastic.
Good Point.
http://www.baseball-reference......ol01.shtml
Damn. 145 ERA+, 11 K/9, low(ish) walks: in 2004. Yeah – I guess I’d sign up for someone capable of that.
Obviously we don’t know too much about the Cuban League but I’d imagine each level is lined with Veterans who have been playing their whole life. More so than the low levels in MiLB’s system. This probably would cause the hitters to be more patient, sit on pitches they can hit, etc…
I’d guess that he’d be much more successful in a low/mid level MiLB system than the Cuban league. Just a guess though..
Man, that’s a ton of money for an unproven player. And I hate the fact that his velocity differs so much from start to start. One scout has him topping out at 100 and another has him at 90? That’s troubling.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned, anonymous scouts are about as reliable as K-man in game one of the World Series.
Just click on the Pitch F/X link that actually records his pitch speeds. It’s from the WBC game in Toronto.
I dont doubt that he can throw hard. I just dont like that he fluctuates so much from start to start.
But we don’t know if he does yet. I have a hard time trusting the things anonymous scouts say, even ones who are buddies with Keith Law.
Plus the idea is if he can reach X you can work with him and get him to a better place. That’s why the Yankees employ Nardi Contreras, afterall.
Young…Tall….left handed pitcher…who can throw 100mph…What’s not to like?
Smells like a good ol’fashion Yankees/red sox bidding war!!!
I LOVE IT!
and for those folks that are comparing this to a kei igawa signing (and yes there are some)….wake up please…Kei Igawa is not 6’5″…and he can not throw 100mph.
Yeah but if his projection is 2.5 HR/9 and 7.4 BB/9, then thats what atleast 2-3 years before he sees the majors? Hope we’re all patient enough to let a prospect grow while paying him big money.
Hope we’re all patient enough to let a prospect grow while paying him big money.
(wipes down microwave, unwraps burrito)
Heh, most people aren’t patient enough to let a prospect grow when he’s earning the major league minimum.
WTF! We payed this guy 44 million and he can’t go 7 innings in Trenton!!!
Multiple interrobangs!!!!!
Yeah, can you imagine him with a 40-50m contract in AA? It’ll be March 14th and we’ll have people calling him a bust
major league projections for chapman at this point are like shadow boxing…you won’t know anything until he gets in the ring and actually has a fight…if you know what i mean.
he is young…he is tall…he is left handed..and he throws the ball very hard. Of course there would be a learning curve…but with the right coaching (which i have no doubt he does NOT have right now), the sky would be the limit for a kid like him.
Also, Aroldis Chapman is not Chinese.
Neither is Igawa?
http://www.smashingpumpkins.co.....5c2170.jpg
Ah, I missed something huh?
Ya, just a meme.
I know that. It’s a meme.
http://riveraveblues.com/2008/.....ent-211946
Thanks
Yeah, but they werent really anonymous. Keith Law was relaying what he’d been told.
No doubter, get it done Cash. Worth the risk.
That is all.
I can already see the bust comments when he doesn’t start his career in the bigs.
Lanny would be all over that.
Cash is a fool for giving him a major league contract and a 40-man spot!
(Ignores fact that all other teams bidding on him would have given him a major league contract and 40-man spot.)
Hah! Exactly.
‘Wow, even when I thought Cash was only good at writing checks, he screws this up. Great job Cash, elite? I think not. This guy is a bum. Just let him hand out checks, that’s all he’s good at.’
But Lanny, you just said that he wasn’t……aww fuck it nevermind.
What is the advantage to Chapman of being on the 40-man roster?
There is no advantage to him being on the 40 man roster. I just doubt Chapman’s agents would agree to a non-ML deal. I’d say the odds of that happening are less that .0001%.
There’s a HUGE advantage TO Chapman. If he’s on the 40-man, he has to be in the bigs for good before he runs out of options. If he signs a MiL deal, he doesn’t need to be on the 40-man until he’s Rule 5 eligible, and THEN has three option years.
Oh, sorry. I misread that.
A) Thanks for the help-out, Joe
B) Sorry for answering the wrong question, toad.
Thanks, Joe.
You’re forgiven, TSJC.
After his first spring training appearnce
Chapman: 3.1 IP, 8H, 5R , 5ER, 4BB, 2 Ks…vs the Winston Salem Warthogs???????????
FIRE CASH!!!
FIRE TORRE!!!!
DFA CHAPMAN!!
They’re ruining him! Make him an elite LOOGY!
I’m gonna teach Alex a lesson! BRING ME PORCELLO’S STATS!!1!
Trying to sneak one by me huh, you picked the wrong guy buddy
I’m not your buddy, pal!
10 days.
(chugs Diet Coke)
(wipes mouth)
Never heard of him.
(waves to producer to go to the next call)
Figures I could count on the Super Fans here. To even say that draftees like Bust Brackman should be given ML contracts is laughable. Then again I barely expect common sense.
How anyone can defend Brackman being given a ML contract? But these are the same guys who think Cashman is doing a phenomenal job because he can hand out blank checks.
Chapman rules:
Chap can not pitch in games on the same day Joba Chamberlain does.
Chap can not pitch to back to back right handed hitters…EVER. (Memo sent to all Major League Clubs.)
Chap can not pitch a day game…2 weeks after a night game is played after a day game win.
Chap can throw no more then 10 pitches per start.
Chap can throw no more then 1.2 IP in september starts.
Chap can not start any game that conflicts with Fidel Castro’s busy schedule.
This is all normal stuff for a pitcher of his age….did i miss anything?
“CUBA RULES” is more catchy.
So, when he’s old enough to have the rules removed, will we all have Cuba Libres?
of course….we’ll take out the rum for the post buck showalter yankee fans.
Here’s something I can say about Aroldis Chapman despite never seeing him perform in person:
His shoulder is in better shape than Chad Pennington’s.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAW, TOO SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON?
OUCH!
i guess he is officially A-roll-of-the-dice Chapman?
TAKE MY WIFE, PLEASE!
yeah, i was pretty much immediately ashamed of myself
::throws tomatoes on stage::
Should I try the veal?
Don’t forget to tip your waitresses.
Up next: SHECKY GREENE!
Is the waitress a drunken broad that smokes? For what it’s worth, I was expecting Don Rickels. At least his son is funny.
So let me get this straight:
control is as much of a skill as speed – you don’t just learn it. You need to be able to throw within 3-6 inches over 60 feet 6 inches – not an easy thing to do. The minors are littered with guys who could throw hard but had poor control.
1) The guy walked 11.8% of batters in 2009
2) This was equal to 11.8% in 2008 (i.e. no improvement).
3) He supposedly has dominant stuff.
4) His control must be fairly bad.
5) Low homeruns are nice – I have no idea if this is park driven or hitter driven though.
6) Strikeouts are nice at 25.2% and 24.7% in 2008 and 2009 but not off the charts (also, no improvement).
7) He’s skinny and already 21 which means that he could have durability issues.
Sounds like a lefty Cuban version of Dellin Betances. Dellin k’d 27.3% and walked 11.9% in 2008 at low A. The Yanks paid $1 million for him – fair money for a high ceiling, low probability signee.
Anyone who wants to pay this kid much more than that is nuts, imho. Guys that are worth that much (Strasbourg) actually have decent control.
And yes, I know that Chapman is a free agent and Americans aren’t so that Chapman can get more money in a true free market. Still, I don’t think that given the risk, he is worth anywhere near $40-$50 million.
Another wastenof dough. Give me lackey
its going to be a huge gamble but some team is going to pay 30 million, to take that chance. He’s 21, left handed and has proven he can throw a 100. He hasn’t been over used, no serious surgeries/ injuries. As far his build i wouldn’t worry to much about it, most 21yr olds fill out, especially with a good trainer.
I could care less about his stats have shown so far, with a good pitching coach i’m sure his command, control and breaking pitches would all improve. My biggest concern would be his mental make up, to see if he can handle the huge pressure and expectation that will follow him especially if he sign with the Yanks
I’m not advocating signing him at any cost, but you can never have to many talented pitching prospect. I would like to see the Yanks do all the homework and if it makes sense sign him. Best case he ends up a frontline starter, mid hes a very good reliever/ closer worst he’s combo of Brackman/ Igawa. No matter what he get 30 plus million from somebody
He only had 1 swing and miss vs Japan? That’s kinda troubling for a guy who throws 100.