Archive for September, 2009

Sep
21

2009 Dominance Factors

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Just before the season started I introduced you a cool new stat for minor league pitchers called Dominance Factor. Patrick Sullivan at Project Prospect developed the stat last May (then tweaked it this January) as a way to see which pitchers were really “dominating” the level they were playing at when you considered their age. It’s based on three factors, all of which the pitcher can control (to varying degrees): strikeouts, walks, and groundballs. The formula is very simple and straight forward:

Dominance Factor, DF = (K% + 0.72*GB% – BB%)+ (Age Level Standard – Actual age)*7

GB% is multiplied by 0.72 because generally speaking, 72% of groundballs turn into outs. The Age Level Standards are basically the average age at a given level, and are 20-yrs old for Low-A, 21 for High-A, 22.5 for Double-A, and 24 for Triple-A. If you want to see an example, click on the first link. The stat doesn’t have any real analysis purposes because of the assumptions used for GB% and age, so it’s best used for reference. It’s still fun to look at, though.

This year’s leader in DF was none other than RAB’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year Manny Banuelos, who checked in at 65.0 DF. That, however, doesn’t even come close to Phil Hughes‘ record of 85.98 DF with Triple-A Scranton in 2007. Mark Melancon was a close second (63.9 DF) because of his exceptional walk and groundball rates, and Zach McAllister (58.6) rounded out the top three. Andrew Brackman checks in at a disappointing 24.1 DF because he was three years old for his level and his walk rate was through the roof. You’ll see that the bottom of the leaderboard is mostly filled with journeyman and low level relievers, organizational arms like that.

The full table of Dominance Factors is huge, so it’s hidden after the jump. Players highlighted in yellow are no longer with the organization, and players highlighted in blue are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December unless added to the 40-man roster. I think I got everyone, but it’s tough to figure out when some of the international guys actually signed, so someone like Hector Noesi might actually be R5 eligible even though I didn’t highlight him. My bad if so.

All of the K, BB, and GB data come from the wonderful site First Inning, and I rounded the player’s age to whatever age they spent the majority of the year at. It’s also broken down by level, so you’ll see a DF for Pat Venditte with Low-A Charleston and then another for High-A Tampa. I could have combined them, but eh, I figured seeing them separate was more useful. I also made it a minimum of 25 IP at a level, so Ian Kennedy and his 22.2 IP at Triple-A Scranton didn’t make the cut. If you’re interested, here’s the DF’s for 2008, 2007, and 2006.

Remember to click the table for a larger view, but I don’t think you’ll have any trouble reading this one.

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Categories : Analysis, Minors
Comments (80)

When Orlando Hernandez defected from Cuba in 1997, he did not have a passport. Neither did his half-brother Livan two years earlier, nor did Jose Conteras in 2002. It took time for their agents to set everything up, and each debuted about a year after defecting. In the case of Aroldis Chapman, the left-handed flamethrower who defected earlier this season, it won’t be as tough. He already had a passport, and has established residency in Andorra, a small country in Europe. It should be a painless path to free agency from here, and his agents say that could be even before the playoffs. The Yanks will certainly be in on the 21-year-old, but at what cost? There’s a thin free agency pitching pool this year, and a young pitcher with Chapman’s stuff could get a behemoth deal.

Categories : Asides
Comments (163)

While the Yankees are getting Andy Pettitte back from his stint of extended rest tonight, another injured pitcher plans to make his return this weekend. David Robertson threw for the third time in six days prior to the Yanks’ Sunday game and says he felt great. Joe Girardi too was impressed with the progress his key middle reliever has made. Robertson will throw from a mound on Tuesday or Wednesday and hopes to pitch in a game this weekend against Boston. If Robertson is healthy, the Yanks’ pen will be fearsome indeed come the playoffs.

Meanwhile, because it’s come up via a few e-mails and off-topic comments, the Yankees will throw CC Sabathia, Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte against the Red Sox this weekend. I believe the Sox will counter with Dice-K, Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett.

Categories : Asides, Injuries
Comments (74)

Record Last Week: 3-3 (27 RS, 28 RA)
Season Record: 95-55 (856 RS, 705 RA), 5.0 games up
Opponents This Week: @ Anaheim (3 games), vs. Boston (3 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Categories : Polls
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During the post-game interviews after the Yanks’ disappointing loss to Seattle on Sunday afternoon, Joba Chamberlain offered up his own assessment of his sub-par start. It wasn’t quite what the rabid New York media and judgmental Yankee fans wanted to hear, and it reminded many of some brash statements Ian Kennedy made during early 2008.

“My delivery was great,” he said. “I threw some great changeups. My slider velocity was great. My fastball velocity was more consistent.”

Nothing that Joba said there was a lie. As Steve S. as The Yankee Universe wrote nearly two weeks ago, Joba’s fastball velocity is right where it should be based on his scouting reports, and Sunday’s start was no exception. Joba flashed a decent fastball and a biting slider. What he did not do was control his pitches or take any responsibility for his bad spate of starts.

As reporters continued to pepper him with questions about his confidence and his health, Joba continued to sound calm, restrained and focus. “It’s going to take a lot more than this to get my confidence level down, I’ll tell you that much,” he said. “You can kick me as much as you want but I’m going to come back fighting every time. That’s how I live this live and that’s how I play this game of baseball.”

Joe Girardi, meanwhile, during his post-game interviews, seemed more guarded in his assessment of Joba’s start. Noting that Chamberlain had no control on Sunday, he talked about how Joba’s final two tune-ups — or auditions — are going to weight on the Yanks’ October choices. “His next start is important,” Girardi said. “It’s real important and we have to get him throwing the baseball the way he can.”

When asked if Joba had a lock on a post-season start, Girardi all but guaranteed it. “He’s one of the guys who have gotten us to that point, and we’ll continue to go with Joba,” he said, “for now.” With that final “for now,” Girardi was clearing hedging his bets.

With just 12 games remaining this year, the Yankees are running out of time to play with their pitching rotation. They need to get A.J. Burnett his starts for consistency’s sake. They want get CC Sabathia a shot as his 20th win. Andy Pettitte has to demonstrate that his shoulder is healthy. Joba Chamberlain has to get himself sorted out.

But what if the Yankees decided to give the fourth starter spot in October to someone else? Joba Chamberlain has never thrown this many innings, and the physical toll of this season could be responsible for this inconsistencies more than media attention or the Yanks’ plans are. Furthermore, the Yanks have won in October with Kenny Rogers and Denny Neagle in that spot. They don’t need an ace there.

The most obvious candidate is Chad Gaudin. Currently, the Yanks’ fifth starter, Gaudin will make two more starts as well this year. As a Yankee, Gaudin has thrown 29.1 innings with an ERA of 3.68. He has allowed 30 hits while walking 16 and striking out 24. His WHIP is a bit higher than we would prefer, but the Yankees are 4-0 in his starts. He gets the job done.

After Gaudin comes Alfredo Aceves. The Mexican Gangster has been a long-relief specialist for the Yankees. Shadowing Joba for much of the last few weeks, he hasn’t thrown since Sept. 14. He figures to be on alert should Andy Pettitte’s shoulder give out against the Angels tonight. He has generally stellar numbers and could make a start in a pinch.

The darkhorse candidate is Ian Kennedy. Prior to coming down with an aneurysm, Kennedy was 1-0 in four AAA starts in April. Over 22.2 innings, he had allowed just four earned runs (1.59 ERA) on 18 hits and 7 walks with 25 strike outs. He would have been given a shot this summer had he not been injured. After his injury, he came back and threw five scoreless innings over two Minor League playoff starts. If Kennedy gets a shot to pitch in the Bronx and does well, he could very well emerge as an October option. He’s due to pitch in the Arizona Fall League as the ALDS starts, and the Yanks could use his innings in a potential ALCS series instead.

Also on the team are Phil Hughes, Sergio Mitre and Josh Towers. Neither Mitre nor Towers is the answer, and while we salivate at the prospects of Phil Hughes starting, the Yankees need him in the pen. He can’t be stretched out right now, and his value in October will rest with his 8th inning appearances.

In the end, the Yankees’ fourth starter position for the playoffs is Joba’s to lose, and he might just lose it. It’s hard to see the Yanks calling on him from the pen in the ALDS. He may end up off the roster in the first round and marginalized in the ALCS if the Yanks get there. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Joba or the Yankees.

Categories : Playoffs
Comments (121)
Sep
20

The Gotham City Yankees

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Yankees Baseball Rookies

As the Yanks left Seattle to head down to Southern California, the gang from Gotham City joined them. As part of the annual rookie hazing, the veterans dressed up the rookies and a few new staff members as characters from the live-action TV version of Batman. Above, left to right, Anthony Flynn, the video coordinator, drew the Robin shorts, Mark Melancon is the Dark Knight, the massage therapist Lew Potter is the Penguin, Ramiro Peña donned the Catwoman outfit and Michael Dunn plays the Riddler. Mark Feinsand spoke with the veterans about the ritual, and Zell’s Pinstripe Blog has a collection of photos from the clubhouse.

Photo by Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Categories : Whimsy
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Sep
20

Open Thread Spillover

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We’ve still got a whole half to go with the Giants and Cowboys, so let’s fire up another thread.

Categories : Open Thread
Comments (154)

For the last two years, the Yankees have been very forthcoming about their plans for Joba Chamberlain. He started 2008 in the bullpen and knew that he would be transitioning mid-season into the starting rotation. He pitched every five days as a starter until an early-August shoulder injury shelved him for a month.

This year, Joba has been a starter from start to finish. Outside of one stretch in mid-August when the Yanks gave him a few extra days off, Joba Chamberlain has taken the ball every five days. Lately, he’s done so on an abbreviated pitch count, but since August, he hasn’t been sharp. While his velocity is where it should — mid-90s for his fastball is fine — his command and approach just haven’t been there.

Coming off of a drubbing of the Mariners on Saturday night, Joba delivered a clunker. He threw 69 pitches in three innings and wasn’t fooling anyone. His final line — 3 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K — was ugly, and six of the nine outs he recorded were loud ones. If the Yanks stick with their plan, Joba will face the Red Sox at the stadium on Saturday.

Meanwhile, some Yankee fans were a-panic today as the Sox gained another game. Joba hasn’t been good in a while and would get the ball in Game 4 of the ALCS if the Yanks make it that far. With their win over the hapless Orioles earlier in the day, the Red Sox find themselves five games, four on the loss side, behind the Yankees. But as YankeeJosh said on Twitter earlier, “If NYY go 7-6 including today, and 1 of those wins is vs Boston, Sox would need to win every other game just to catch Yanks.” Now, the Bombers have to go 7-5 over their last 12 games, but considering that this team is 40 games over .500, it’s not a tall order.

In the end, this was a game of offensive futility. After Derek Jeter‘s lead-off single, the Yanks recorded no hits until the 6th. After Ken Griffey’s three-run home run, the Mariners recorded one hit for the rest of the game. Joba’s pitches were over the plate, and the Mariners capitalized.

We have to tip our caps to Sergio Mitre. After being demoted from the starting rotation to the bullpen, Mitre went five one-hit innings. Granted, it was already 7-1, and the Mariners aren’t a good offensive team. Nonetheless, he saved the pen for an important three-game set against the Angels.

After the game, the Yankee veterans were going to haze the rookies by making them dress up as characters from Batman. We’ll post the pictures if and when we can a hold of them. Despite losing today, the team is having fun. They have a five-game lead with two weeks left before the playoffs. They’re on the way to Anaheim as Andy Pettitte looks to return from a fatigued shoulder, and the season rolls on.

Since we don’t want to dwell too much on yet another bad Joba start, feel free to use this as your open thread for the evening. I hear there’s some big football game going down in Dallas tonight. Any bets on when Jeff Feagles’ first punt hits the Cowboys’ giant scoreboard?

Categories : Game Stories
Comments (343)
Sep
20

Game 150 Spillover Thread

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Haven’t had to do this in a while: the Yankees will bring the tying run to the plate in this game.

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (307)

Did Joba really have a hitch in his delivery? I thought it was a psychological tactic, but there’s a chance the young rookie might have been out of sync. We’ll find out today as he faces the Seattle Mariners. It should be a five-inning affair for Joba, who has three starts remaining including today. The hope is to get him up to six innings in his next two.

Here’s the thing with addressing a mechanical flaw — whether real or invented — with the media: it’s your last excuse. If Joba falters today, there’s no explaining it away. They “discovered” the mechanical flaw, so it follows that the correction should be forthcoming. Considering how well he pitched against the Angels, it would be a disappointment to see Joba surrender any more than two runs over his five innings.

The Mariners will start Ian Snell, whom they acquired from the Pirates earlier this season. The Yankees pounded Snell in his third start after coming to the big boys’ league, prompting this gem: “That lineup is just stupid. They shouldn’t be allowed to have a lineup like that.” Awesome. Snell allowed eight runs over six innings that game.

He has pitched very well since, going 33 innings over six starts. His ERA in that span is a respectable 3.27, and he has allowed more than two earned runs only once. That was to the Angels, easily the best team he faced in those six starts. The breakdown: Detroit, Oakland twice, Kansas City, L.A., and Chicago. So he wasn’t exactly facing any stupid lineups, and his worst start came against by far the best team.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsu, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, RF
9. Brett Gardner, CF

And on the mound, number sixty-two, Joba Chamberlain.

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (368)