Archive for September, 2009
Fan Confidence Poll: September 14th, 2009
Posted by: | CommentsRecord Last Week: 5-2 (42 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 92-52 (829 RS, 677 RA), 7.0 games up
Opponents This Week: vs. Anaheim (1 game), vs. Toronto (2 games), @ Seattle (3 games)
Top stories from last week:
- The week started off with a doubleheader against the nosediving Rays, and the Yanks took care of business on Monday – CC Sabathia set the tone in the afternoon game, and the offense did it’s thing against Andy Sonnanstine in the night cap. Nick Swisher kept it going with two homers, including a walk-off job, the next day. Jeter tied Lou Gehrig for the most hits in franchise history in the finale, and a pinch-hit Jorge Posada homer gave the team the four-game sweep.
- Derek Jeter became the franchise’s all-time leader in hits against the Orioles on Friday night, but the bullpen ruined the moment. One bad inning did the Yanks in on Saturday, but they pounded the O’s bullpen to avoid the sweep.
- In a surprise move, Ian Kennedy was activated from the minor league disabled list and threw two scoreless innings for High-A Tampa.
- David Robertson had some elbow trouble and saw Dr. Andrews, but he’ll miss just two weeks.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
How does stress factor into a pitcher’s workload?
Posted by: | CommentsBrowsing through my RSS reader on Friday, I caught this bit by Tom Verducci of SI. From a guy with a namesake “rule” regarding pitcher usage, I couldn’t resist the title: “The problem with innings counts…” There are, of course, a number of problems with evaluating a pitcher on innings count and nothing else. That’s why the Verducci Rule is a rule of thumb: it is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. (From Wikipedia). Instead it’s a guideline. Surely teams use more advanced analysis to determine a pitcher’s workload.
This, of course, relates to Joba Chamberlain. He’s tossed 139.2 innings so far this year, after topping out somewhere around 120 innings a few years ago. The rule of thumb says a 30-inning increase raises a red flag, and Joba is fast approaching that number. The Yanks, for their part, are keeping Joba’s starts short now in hopes that they can keep his innings in check for the regular season.
Verducci makes an interesting comparison of Joba to two other young starters, Rick Porcello of the Tigers and Randy Wells of the Cubs. Both have about the same innings total as Joba, but there are factors which separate them. The one which concerns me most: plate appearances with runners on base. Those are considered higher stress situations. The pitcher has to worry about runners as well as the hitter, and generates less natural force by pitching from the stretch.
Chamberlain also leads the troika in overall pitches, and by a decent margin. So while he’s tossed a similar number of innings, he’s been under greater stress because of more runners on base and more pitches thrown in those innings. If we’re using innings as a measuring stick for work load, we certainly have to take these factors into consideration as well. They can help to more accurately judge how hard a pitcher works.
There are some other differences between Joba and his comps. Wells is a 26-year-old, so he’s out of Verducci’s range, which covers players 25 and under. His workload is less of a concern at that point, as his body is more physically mature. Porcello is just 20 years old and is in his second season of pro ball. Joba may lack experience, but Porcello has even less.
The comparisons are important, and I don’t think Verducci painted the whole picture here. It does show the high number of situations Joba has faced with runners on, and his high overall pitch count. But I’d like to see those juxtaposed with pitchers at Joba’s experience level, both past and present. I think that would give us a better idea of Joba’s actual work load. With access to these numbers we could whip up one of those fancy excel spreadsheets on which some fans like to play the games.
These numbers are a bit concerning. Joba will end the season with a sizable increase to his previous high in innings pitched, and far over his 100-inning total from last year. He’s throwing a good number of high-stress innings, and has a high overall pitch total. I wonder how these factors play into the Yanks overall evaluation of their struggling 23-year-old, and which others they’re using.
Tampa drops Game Two
Posted by: | CommentsRobert Pimpsner has some updates on a few injured players:
- Arodys Vizcaino is playing long toss and preparing for instructional league
- Caleb Cotham reaggravated a knee injury from this summer and was shut down
- Neil Medchill will have wrist surgery after the NY-Penn League Championship Series
Triple-A Scranton will take on Durham, who beat Louisville today, in the International League Championship Series (best-of-five) starting Tuesday. They’re looking to win their second straight Governor’s Cup in a rematch.
Double-A Trenton’s season is over. Connecticut defeated New Britain today, so they’ll face Akron in the Eastern League Championship Series (best-of-five) starting on Tuesday.
High-A Tampa (9-2 loss to Charlotte) the best-of-five championship series is tied at one … DJ Mitchell gets the ball tomorrow
Dan Brewer: 2 for 3, 1 RBI, 1 HBP
David Adams, Austin Romine, Damon Sublett & Walt Ibarra: all 1 for 4 – Adams drove in a run & K’ed … Romine K’ed … Ibarra scored a run, K’ed & committed a fielding error
Brandon Laird & Luis Nunez: both 0 for 4
Kevin Smith: 0 for 2, 2 BB, 1 E (fielding)
Jack Rye: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB
David Phelps: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2-3 GB/FB – yikes … he picked a bad day for his worst outing for the year
Jairo Heredia: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 5-3 GB/FB
Adam Olbrychowski: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 2-2 GB/FB
Phil Bartlewski: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 0-3 GB/FB – back down from Trenton following their failed playoff push
Low-A Charleston’s season is over. Lakewood and Greenville each swept their respective Round One matchup, and will face each other when the South Atlantic League Championship Series (best-of-five) starts on Monday.
Short Season Staten Island will take on Mahoning Valley in the NYPL Championship Series (best-of-three) starting tomorrow. Here’s a series preview. SI is gunning for their fifth title in the last ten years.
The Rookie GCL Yanks season is over after they lost to the GCL Marlins in Round One of the playoffs. The GCL Nats won the league championship.
Sunday night open thread
Posted by: | CommentsAnother game down and the Yankees are that much closer to clinching a playoff spot and the division. In fact, if Tampa loses to Boston tonight, not only will it be their 11th straight loss, it will officially eliminate them from the AL East race.
Anyway, while you enjoy the win, use this thread to talk about whatever you want. The ESPN Sunday night game is the Mets and Phillies, who actually played earlier today. Da Bears and Packers are your Sunday night football game. DotF will be along a little later tonight. Anything goes, just be cool.
Game 144 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsTime for Phil Hughes‘ bi-weekly pitching appearance.
Game 144: Avoiding the sweep
Posted by: | CommentsIn yesterday’s game recap, I made an error. “The Yanks look to avoid their first sweep since early May tomorrow afternoon.” It shows how much I’ve put the Anaheim series out of my mind. So this will be the Yankees looking to avoid their first sweep since mid-July. They beat the crap out of the Orioles for most of the season, so let’s just chalk up the last two games to a market correction and hope they right the ship today.
The Yanks faced Jeremy Guthrie a few weeks ago, so you can catch his story in that post. Since then, it appears Guthrie has recovered. He allowed just two runs over six innings in the August 31 game, and followed that up with a seven-inning shutout of Texas.
In his last four starts, Guthrie is 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA, striking out 15 and walking just four. It’s a nice recovery from a mostly poor season. His ERA stood at 5.66 after the Angels shellacked him on August 15, which was preceded by the A’s thumping him. He has allowed just two home runs in those 27 innings, which is a good sign for Guthrie, who currently leads the AL in home runs allowed.
A recovery would be good not only for Guthrie, but for the Orioles. He’s headed to arbitration for the first time this off-season, and will be 31 years old just after Opening Day 2010. The rebuilding Orioles would do well to get a young player or two in return for him. He’s probably not going to help the team contend, and he could be attractive to other teams because he still has three arbitration years.
The Yanks send out CC Sabathia to stop the bleeding. Carsten Charles, league leader in games started and close in innings pitched, has been nothing but excellent for the Yanks of late. Since his five-run performance against Chicago in early August (which really wasn’t a totally bad game), CC has tossed 51.1 innings and allowed only 10 runs, striking out 63 to 11 walks. That’s the kind of K/BB ratio that made his run in Milwaukee last season so special. He’s basically been reproducing that for the Yanks since the beginning of August.
Damon’s back in the lineup after sitting out the past two days with a sore back. Girardi’s not messing around today. It’s the A-lineup to avoid the sweep.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Nick Swisher, RF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
And on the mound, number fifty-two, Carsten Charles Sabathia.
Kenny R on the playoff pitching rotations
Posted by: | CommentsKen Rosenthal took a look at the playoff pitching rotations for all of the teams currently holding playoff spots, and he comes off sounding rather bearish on, well, everyone. Most teams, according to the Fox Sports reporter, have a great 1-2 combination, but beyond that, it’s a toss up.
The Yankees, as we noted earlier this week, will have a choice to make between the longer and shorter ALDS schedule. One will allow them to start CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett in four of the five games while the other will force them to rely on Joba Chamberlain for one outing. At the same time, if the Yanks play the Tigers — and with the Red Sox holding a three-game Wild Card lead, Detroit is looming large for the Yanks — Detroit would benefit from the short series as well.
Anyway, take a look at what Rosenthal has to say. I don’t agree with his assessment:
Joe Torre favored using Pettitte in Game 2 when he managed the Yankees. Left-handers rate an edge at the new Yankee Stadium, just as they did at the old. While Joe Girardi might be reluctant to go with two lefties back-to-back, Pettitte currently is pitching much better than Burnett. The Tigers hit lefties about the same as righties, which is to say, not all that well.
As for Chamberlain, if the Yankees started him in Game 4, they almost certainly would be forced to use their bullpen early. If they skipped him, they might further reduce his chances of pitching deep into a game in the American League Championship Series.
Two years after developing Chamberlain into a bullpen weapon, the Yankees have effectively squandered him as an asset, overmanaging him while restricting his innings, transforming him from an aggressive intimidator into a confused kid.
The B-Jobber talk is, simply put, absurd. Chamberlain isn’t a “confused kid.” In fact, the Yankees have been very clear with Joba about his role for much of the last two seasons. In fact, the only time he didn’t make his regularly scheduled turn in the rotation was last month when he got some extra rest. Joba’s problems this year — reduced velocity, reduced control — have absolutely nothing to do with some false narrative that he was “jerked around.”
In the end, the Yanks’ playoff hopes are going to fall a little more heavily on the arm of A.J. Burnett than we would hope. Pettitte and Sabathia have acquitted themselves well lately, and the two lefties will be well-rested come October. If Burnett straightens himself out and finds his groove, the Yanks will have as a good a 1-2-3 punch as any team out there, and Joba won’t matter as much. The Yanks have won the World Series with Kenny Rogers in their four spot, and they’re a better team this year than they have been in a while.
Kennedy makes surprise return as Tampa wins
Posted by: | CommentsTriple-A Scranton (12-3 win over Gwinnett) SWB won the best-of-five series 3-1 and is heading to their second consecutive International League Championship Series … Louisville & Durham are tied at two in their series, and will play the deciding game tomorrow … SWB will take on the winner of that game when the finals start Tuesday … you probably remember that they won the Governor’s Cup last year, which resulted in the greatest headline in RAB history
Kevin Russo, Freddy Guzman & Chris Stewart: all 2 for 5 – Russo got hit by a pitch, doubled, drove in three, scored twice & K’ed … Guzman drew a walk & drove in two … Stewart scored a run, plated two & K’ed
Austin Jackson: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Juan Miranda & Reegie Corona: both 2 for 4, 1 2B – Miranda was hit by a pitch, drove in two & scored one … Corona walked, scored twice & K’ed … Miranda is now the franchise’s career leader in postseason RBI with 17
Eduardo Nunez: 0 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K – one of the walks was intentional … AAA debut, but he only DH’ed
Colin Curtis: 1 for 5, 1 R, 2 K
Doug Bernier: 1 for 1, 3 R, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 HBP – I love lines like this
Zach McAllister: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HB, 7-5 GB/FB – 55 of 85 pitches were strikes (64.7%) … that’s pretty much what you could expect out of a kid making his AAA debut in a playoff game
Anthony Claggett: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 4-3 GB/FB – 17 of 28 pitches were strikes (60.7%) … he was their scheduled starter for Game Five, but now they can go back to the top of rotation with the long layoff
Jose Valdez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 12 of 22 pitches were strikes (54.5%)
Open Thread: On magic numbers
Posted by: | CommentsAs of this writing, the Yankees’ magic number stands at 14. By itself, that magic number doesn’t really tell us too much though about the Yanks’ chances of making the playoffs. After all, they could have a magic number of 14 with 30 games left; they could have a magic number of 14 with, as they do now, 19 games left. In this day and age of exact baseball numbers, the magic number is a relic of another era.
Earlier this week, Walk Like a Sabermetrician proposed an adjustment to the magic number formula. Instead of a pure magic number, WLAS proposes a Magic Percentage. It is “the percentage of game outcomes that must go a team’s way in order for them to clinch. In this case, game outcomes include both the team in question’s games and the games of their opponents.”
He explains further:
Suppose that the race between the Alphas and the Bravos is shaping up like this, with ten games left for each team:
Alphas….91-61….599
Bravos….89-63….586The Alphas’ M# is 9. Again, that means that a combination of nine Alpha wins and Bravo losses will clinch the division. Since each team has ten games left, there are twenty total game outcomes outstanding, and 45% of them (9/20) must go the Alphas’ way. Therefore, their M% is 45%. Since I always feel compelled to write out a formula, here it is:
M% = (M#)/(2*g – W – L – oW – oL)
In other teams, the formula is Magic Number divided by the number of total games left for the first and second place teams. The Yankees have a Magic Percentage of 33. They need only 33 percent of the remaining games to go their way — that is, a Red Sox loss or a Yankee win.
There are some similar problems with Magic Percentage as Magic Number. It still pays to know how many games the team in question has left. But other than running Baseball Prospectus-style Monte Carlo simulations — the latest post-season odds report give the Yanks the East 99.4 percent of the time — this Magic Percentage is a step toward a better magic number.
Here’s your Saturday night open thread. There’s some college football on, some rain-delayed baseball games. You know the drill. Play nice.


