Archive for September, 2009

Record Last Week: 5-2 (42 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 92-52 (829 RS, 677 RA), 7.0 games up
Opponents This Week: vs. Anaheim (1 game), vs. Toronto (2 games),  @ Seattle (3 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Categories : Polls
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Browsing through my RSS reader on Friday, I caught this bit by Tom Verducci of SI. From a guy with a namesake “rule” regarding pitcher usage, I couldn’t resist the title: “The problem with innings counts…” There are, of course, a number of problems with evaluating a pitcher on innings count and nothing else. That’s why the Verducci Rule is a rule of thumb: it is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. (From Wikipedia). Instead it’s a guideline. Surely teams use more advanced analysis to determine a pitcher’s workload.

This, of course, relates to Joba Chamberlain. He’s tossed 139.2 innings so far this year, after topping out somewhere around 120 innings a few years ago. The rule of thumb says a 30-inning increase raises a red flag, and Joba is fast approaching that number. The Yanks, for their part, are keeping Joba’s starts short now in hopes that they can keep his innings in check for the regular season.

Verducci makes an interesting comparison of Joba to two other young starters, Rick Porcello of the Tigers and Randy Wells of the Cubs. Both have about the same innings total as Joba, but there are factors which separate them. The one which concerns me most: plate appearances with runners on base. Those are considered higher stress situations. The pitcher has to worry about runners as well as the hitter, and generates less natural force by pitching from the stretch.

Chamberlain also leads the troika in overall pitches, and by a decent margin. So while he’s tossed a similar number of innings, he’s been under greater stress because of more runners on base and more pitches thrown in those innings. If we’re using innings as a measuring stick for work load, we certainly have to take these factors into consideration as well. They can help to more accurately judge how hard a pitcher works.

There are some other differences between Joba and his comps. Wells is a 26-year-old, so he’s out of Verducci’s range, which covers players 25 and under. His workload is less of a concern at that point, as his body is more physically mature. Porcello is just 20 years old and is in his second season of pro ball. Joba may lack experience, but Porcello has even less.

The comparisons are important, and I don’t think Verducci painted the whole picture here. It does show the high number of situations Joba has faced with runners on, and his high overall pitch count. But I’d like to see those juxtaposed with pitchers at Joba’s experience level, both past and present. I think that would give us a better idea of Joba’s actual work load. With access to these numbers we could whip up one of those fancy excel spreadsheets on which some fans like to play the games.

These numbers are a bit concerning. Joba will end the season with a sizable increase to his previous high in innings pitched, and far over his 100-inning total from last year. He’s throwing a good number of high-stress innings, and has a high overall pitch total. I wonder how these factors play into the Yanks overall evaluation of their struggling 23-year-old, and which others they’re using.

Categories : Pitching
Comments (25)
Sep
13

Tampa drops Game Two

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Robert Pimpsner has some updates on a few injured players:

  • Arodys Vizcaino is playing long toss and preparing for instructional league
  • Caleb Cotham reaggravated a knee injury from this summer and was shut down
  • Neil Medchill will have wrist surgery after the NY-Penn League Championship Series

Triple-A Scranton will take on Durham, who beat Louisville today, in the International League Championship Series (best-of-five) starting Tuesday. They’re looking to win their second straight Governor’s Cup in a rematch.

Double-A Trenton’s season is over. Connecticut defeated New Britain today, so they’ll face Akron in the Eastern League Championship Series (best-of-five) starting on Tuesday.

High-A Tampa (9-2 loss to Charlotte) the best-of-five championship series is tied at one … DJ Mitchell gets the ball tomorrow
Dan Brewer: 2 for 3, 1 RBI, 1 HBP
David Adams, Austin Romine, Damon Sublett & Walt Ibarra: all 1 for 4 – Adams drove in a run & K’ed … Romine K’ed … Ibarra scored a run, K’ed & committed a fielding error
Brandon Laird & Luis Nunez: both 0 for 4
Kevin Smith: 0 for 2, 2 BB, 1 E (fielding)
Jack Rye: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB
David Phelps: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2-3 GB/FB – yikes … he picked a bad day for his worst outing for the year
Jairo Heredia: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 5-3 GB/FB
Adam Olbrychowski: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 2-2 GB/FB
Phil Bartlewski: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 0-3 GB/FB – back down from Trenton following their failed playoff push

Low-A Charleston’s season is over. Lakewood and Greenville each swept their respective Round One matchup, and will face each other when the South Atlantic League Championship Series (best-of-five) starts on Monday.

Short Season Staten Island will take on Mahoning Valley in the NYPL Championship Series (best-of-three) starting tomorrow. Here’s a series preview. SI is gunning for their fifth title in the last ten years.

The Rookie GCL Yanks season is over after they lost to the GCL Marlins in Round One of the playoffs. The GCL Nats won the league championship.

Categories : Down on the Farm
Comments (17)
Sep
13

Sunday night open thread

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Another game down and the Yankees are that much closer to clinching a playoff spot and the division. In fact, if Tampa loses to Boston tonight, not only will it be their 11th straight loss, it will officially eliminate them from the AL East race.

Anyway, while you enjoy the win, use this thread to talk about whatever you want. The ESPN Sunday night game is the Mets and Phillies, who actually played earlier today. Da Bears and Packers are your Sunday night football game. DotF will be along a little later tonight. Anything goes, just be cool.

Categories : Open Thread
Comments (402)

Early on, this was the kind of game that made you want to pull your hair out. The Yanks squandered an opportunity in the first inning. Then CC Sabathia came back out for the next inning and surrendered the small lead. The game got further away with an inexcusable play by Damon. The Yanks offense wouldn’t lay sleeping for long, though. They came on late and put the team out in front, avoiding the sweep at the hands of the Orioles.

After a quick, nine-pitch first inning, Sabathia ran into trouble in the second. Nolan Reimold, thorn in the Yanks side all series, led things off with a dribbler to third. He’s a quick kid, and A-Rod really had no chance. CC left one up and over the plate to Ty Wigginton, and he deposited it in shallow right. A four-pitch walk to Matt Wieters loaded the bases with none out.

CC turned it around and held the Orioles to two runs in that inning, both scoring on outs. The problems resurfaced in the third. CC retired the first two hitters, but the second, Nick Markakis, sent one out to the wall at the deepest part of the park. Reimold hit it similarly, but instead of right to center he split Melky and Damon for a double off the wall. After a walk he’d finish off the side without allowing a run to score, but CC still didn’t look sharp.

Then came the fourth, an inning to forget. Justin Turner reached on a slow grounder to third, frustrating as hell because a ball hit that weakly should be an out. But it wasn’t. Chad Moeller followed that with another weak grounder to third, and if it was anyone by Chad Moeller running, it likely would have been another infield hit.

So there was a runner on second with one out. I knew that. You knew that. Eight Yankees in the field knew that. Unfortunately, Jef Fiorentino hit it to the one guy who didn’t. Johnny Damon had a bit of trouble with the fly ball in the sun, and breathed a sigh of relief when it landed in his glove. He turned around to toss it to a fan, not realizing that CC still had an out to record. That bought Turner enough time to round third and give the Orioles a 3-1 lead. It was certainly one of the most embarrassing moments of the season.

That seemingly sparked Sabathia. He got Brian Roberts to pop out on the next pitch, and didn’t allow a hit the rest of the way. He walked two, but erased one on a first-pitch double play. That left him with a line of 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 1 K. The game didn’t go far in improving Sabathia’s until-now disgusting K/BB ratio.

For the offense, the early game was defined by a lack of hits with runners in scoring position. A-Rod came through with a double to score Jeter in the first, but the next two batters couldn’t plate the runners on second and third. They squandered Derek Jeter‘s leadoff double in the third, mustering only a walk off Jeremy Guthrie.

In the fourth that changed, as the Yanks loaded up the bases with three straight singles, capped by a fourth by Melky Cabrera, plating two runs and tying the game. But the Yanks couldn’t plate another run in that inning, even after Johnny Damon walked to load the bases. The frame ended on an Alex Rodriguez strikeout looking. The pitch was clearly outside, but Marty Foster called it a strike anyway.

That led to a curious situation. After the Yankees took the field, apparently someone had a closer look at it. Alex said something and got tossed. Then Girardi blew up and got himself tossed. I’ll leave the umpire rant for another day. Yeah, the pitch was close, but it wasn’t a strike. If the ball doesn’t catch the corner, it should not be called a strike, and I don’t care if the ump is “consistently” calling them out there.

Matsui broke the RISP woes in the sixth, singling with the bases loaded and plating two runs. That would be all the Yanks would need, but they didn’t let it end there. In the bottom of the eight they poured it on, decimating the Baltimore bullpen and continuing their tradition of putting up enormous numbers in the final three frames. Matsui picked up a three run homer, which iced the victory. The homer didn’t kill the rally, though, and the Yanks put up five more runs and loaded up the bases before the O’s bullpen finally got out of it.

Instead of the scheduled off-day tomorrow, the Yanks will host Anaheim in a makeup of a rainout from earlier this year. The Yanks had won the first two games of that series, losing the third with Sabathia on the hill. Joba Chamberlain will go, and strangely I think he was the scheduled starter for the regularly scheduled game (but I could be wrong). The Yanks magic number is now down to an A-Rodian 13. It could get down to 12, depending on the Sox-Rays game this evening.

Categories : Game Stories
Comments (59)
Sep
13

Game 144 Spillover Thread

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Time for Phil Hughes‘ bi-weekly pitching appearance.

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (133)
Sep
13

Game 144: Avoiding the sweep

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In yesterday’s game recap, I made an error. “The Yanks look to avoid their first sweep since early May tomorrow afternoon.” It shows how much I’ve put the Anaheim series out of my mind. So this will be the Yankees looking to avoid their first sweep since mid-July. They beat the crap out of the Orioles for most of the season, so let’s just chalk up the last two games to a market correction and hope they right the ship today.

The Yanks faced Jeremy Guthrie a few weeks ago, so you can catch his story in that post. Since then, it appears Guthrie has recovered. He allowed just two runs over six innings in the August 31 game, and followed that up with a seven-inning shutout of Texas.

In his last four starts, Guthrie is 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA, striking out 15 and walking just four. It’s a nice recovery from a mostly poor season. His ERA stood at 5.66 after the Angels shellacked him on August 15, which was preceded by the A’s thumping him. He has allowed just two home runs in those 27 innings, which is a good sign for Guthrie, who currently leads the AL in home runs allowed.

A recovery would be good not only for Guthrie, but for the Orioles. He’s headed to arbitration for the first time this off-season, and will be 31 years old just after Opening Day 2010. The rebuilding Orioles would do well to get a young player or two in return for him. He’s probably not going to help the team contend, and he could be attractive to other teams because he still has three arbitration years.

The Yanks send out CC Sabathia to stop the bleeding. Carsten Charles, league leader in games started and close in innings pitched, has been nothing but excellent for the Yanks of late. Since his five-run performance against Chicago in early August (which really wasn’t a totally bad game), CC has tossed 51.1 innings and allowed only 10 runs, striking out 63 to 11 walks. That’s the kind of K/BB ratio that made his run in Milwaukee last season so special. He’s basically been reproducing that for the Yanks since the beginning of August.

Damon’s back in the lineup after sitting out the past two days with a sore back. Girardi’s not messing around today. It’s the A-lineup to avoid the sweep.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Nick Swisher, RF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF

And on the mound, number fifty-two, Carsten Charles Sabathia.

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (295)

Ken Rosenthal took a look at the playoff pitching rotations for all of the teams currently holding playoff spots, and he comes off sounding rather bearish on, well, everyone. Most teams, according to the Fox Sports reporter, have a great 1-2 combination, but beyond that, it’s a toss up.

The Yankees, as we noted earlier this week, will have a choice to make between the longer and shorter ALDS schedule. One will allow them to start CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett in four of the five games while the other will force them to rely on Joba Chamberlain for one outing. At the same time, if the Yanks play the Tigers — and with the Red Sox holding a three-game Wild Card lead, Detroit is looming large for the Yanks — Detroit would benefit from the short series as well.

Anyway, take a look at what Rosenthal has to say. I don’t agree with his assessment:

Joe Torre favored using Pettitte in Game 2 when he managed the Yankees. Left-handers rate an edge at the new Yankee Stadium, just as they did at the old. While Joe Girardi might be reluctant to go with two lefties back-to-back, Pettitte currently is pitching much better than Burnett. The Tigers hit lefties about the same as righties, which is to say, not all that well.

As for Chamberlain, if the Yankees started him in Game 4, they almost certainly would be forced to use their bullpen early. If they skipped him, they might further reduce his chances of pitching deep into a game in the American League Championship Series.

Two years after developing Chamberlain into a bullpen weapon, the Yankees have effectively squandered him as an asset, overmanaging him while restricting his innings, transforming him from an aggressive intimidator into a confused kid.

The B-Jobber talk is, simply put, absurd. Chamberlain isn’t a “confused kid.” In fact, the Yankees have been very clear with Joba about his role for much of the last two seasons. In fact, the only time he didn’t make his regularly scheduled turn in the rotation was last month when he got some extra rest. Joba’s problems this year — reduced velocity, reduced control — have absolutely nothing to do with some false narrative that he was “jerked around.”

In the end, the Yanks’ playoff hopes are going to fall a little more heavily on the arm of A.J. Burnett than we would hope. Pettitte and Sabathia have acquitted themselves well lately, and the two lefties will be well-rested come October. If Burnett straightens himself out and finds his groove, the Yanks will have as a good a 1-2-3 punch as any team out there, and Joba won’t matter as much. The Yanks have won the World Series with Kenny Rogers in their four spot, and they’re a better team this year than they have been in a while.

Categories : Playoffs
Comments (12)

Triple-A Scranton (12-3 win over Gwinnett) SWB won the best-of-five series 3-1 and is heading to their second consecutive International League Championship Series … Louisville & Durham are tied at two in their series, and will play the deciding game tomorrow … SWB will take on the winner of that game when the finals start Tuesday … you probably remember that they won the Governor’s Cup last year, which resulted in the greatest headline in RAB history
Kevin Russo, Freddy Guzman & Chris Stewart: all 2 for 5 – Russo got hit by a pitch, doubled, drove in three, scored twice & K’ed … Guzman drew a walk & drove in two … Stewart scored a run, plated two & K’ed
Austin Jackson: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Juan Miranda & Reegie Corona: both 2 for 4, 1 2B – Miranda was hit by a pitch, drove in two & scored one … Corona walked, scored twice & K’ed … Miranda is now the franchise’s career leader in postseason RBI with 17
Eduardo Nunez: 0 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K – one of the walks was intentional … AAA debut, but he only DH’ed
Colin Curtis: 1 for 5, 1 R, 2 K
Doug Bernier: 1 for 1, 3 R, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 HBP – I love lines like this
Zach McAllister: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HB, 7-5 GB/FB – 55 of 85 pitches were strikes (64.7%) … that’s pretty much what you could expect out of a kid making his AAA debut in a playoff game
Anthony Claggett: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 4-3 GB/FB – 17 of 28 pitches were strikes (60.7%) … he was their scheduled starter for Game Five, but now they can go back to the top of rotation with the long layoff
Jose Valdez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 12 of 22 pitches were strikes (54.5%)

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Categories : Down on the Farm
Comments (18)
Sep
12

Open Thread: On magic numbers

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As of this writing, the Yankees’ magic number stands at 14. By itself, that magic number doesn’t really tell us too much though about the Yanks’ chances of making the playoffs. After all, they could have a magic number of 14 with 30 games left; they could have a magic number of 14 with, as they do now, 19 games left. In this day and age of exact baseball numbers, the magic number is a relic of another era.

Earlier this week, Walk Like a Sabermetrician proposed an adjustment to the magic number formula. Instead of a pure magic number, WLAS proposes a Magic Percentage. It is “the percentage of game outcomes that must go a team’s way in order for them to clinch. In this case, game outcomes include both the team in question’s games and the games of their opponents.”

He explains further:

Suppose that the race between the Alphas and the Bravos is shaping up like this, with ten games left for each team:

Alphas….91-61….599
Bravos….89-63….586

The Alphas’ M# is 9. Again, that means that a combination of nine Alpha wins and Bravo losses will clinch the division. Since each team has ten games left, there are twenty total game outcomes outstanding, and 45% of them (9/20) must go the Alphas’ way. Therefore, their M% is 45%. Since I always feel compelled to write out a formula, here it is:

M% = (M#)/(2*g – W – L – oW – oL)

In other teams, the formula is Magic Number divided by the number of total games left for the first and second place teams. The Yankees have a Magic Percentage of 33. They need only 33 percent of the remaining games to go their way — that is, a Red Sox loss or a Yankee win.

There are some similar problems with Magic Percentage as Magic Number. It still pays to know how many games the team in question has left. But other than running Baseball Prospectus-style Monte Carlo simulations — the latest post-season odds report give the Yanks the East 99.4 percent of the time — this Magic Percentage is a step toward a better magic number.

Here’s your Saturday night open thread. There’s some college football on, some rain-delayed baseball games. You know the drill. Play nice.

Categories : Open Thread
Comments (41)