Archive for September, 2009

Sep
05

Question about Joba

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Ok, so I’m not particularly inspired to write much about the Yankees this morning, and there’s not any real news to share. So instead I’ll ask a question that I’ve had a tough time answering.

If Joba Chamberlain continues pitching like this over his next two or three starts, is there any chance the Yankees just shut him down? Say he throws three more starts and goes 4, 4, and 5 innings. That’ll put him right around 150 innings. If he’s still struggling, then it would be tough to trust him in a playoff game. So if you can’t trust him in a playoff game, and he’s at 50 more innings than last year, and 30 more innings than the all-time high he set in 2005 (or 2006, depending on how you look at it), why not just have him pack it in?

I hope this is just a mental exercise and that Joba does right what’s been wrong over his past four or five starts. But it’s starting to build up. He’s struggled with command at times, and then when he’s throwing strikes guys are hitting him. Things are not looking good right now, not by any stretch.

I’m leaning towards shut down in the above-mentioned situation. The idea is to balance the short- and long-term aspects of Joba’s development, and if he’s not pitching well then he’s not helping the team in the short term. If he’s not helping the team in the short term and he’s already at so many more innings and pitches thrown over last year, I think the best move is to have him pack it in. Thoughts?

Categories : Asides
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Sep
05

When Halladay is on…

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Not much to say about last night’s game, so let’s cover it bullet-point style.

  • Joba made some good pitches, but he made a lot more poor pitches. The Pena error in the first hurt, but it’s not like Joba was cruising to that point. Aaron Hill’s double, just out of Eric Hinske’s reach, was well hit, and Adam Lind doubled on a very hittable fastball. There’s no way to sugar coat the six hits he allowed and two he walked. It’s massively disappointing.
  • I think PeteAbe says it well: “The idea was to see improvement and it wasn’t there. Don’t focus on the runs or the misplays in the field, focus on the quality of Toronto’s swings and that Joba had only four pitches that produced a swinging strike. Two were by past-his-prime Kevin Millar.”
  • I wonder if the offense was at all affected by the grueling first inning. Yes, Roy Halladay is excellent, but this is a team that had scored 57 runs over its past seven games. Perhaps, the saying goes, it was a market correction. Halladay did have an uncharacteristically poor August.
  • Nice piece of hitting by Ramiro Pena on a misplaced Roy Halladay curveball in the sixth. Figures that it was the Yanks only hit of the night.
  • I bolted after the fourth inning and went to see Extract. Funny flick, definitely up to Mike Judge’s standard. I’d say I enjoyed Ben Affleck’s character, but then it would be memorialized for all eternity on the Internets.
  • Anyway, came back and fired up the game archive. Jumped to the sixth to see Ramiro’s double, and then went to the bottom of the seventh to watch Mike Dunn’s debut. I wish I hadn’t. All I could think of was Harry Doyle. “Low, and he walks the bases loaded on 12 straight pitches. How can these guys lay off pitches that close?”
  • Not only can we look forward to having Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher in the lineup today, but there’s a pitcher who might go more than four innings. Andy Pettitte against Brett Cecil tomorrow at one. I do like day games after tough losses.
  • Oh, and of course, magic number is down to good old O’Neill. Paul Byrd got hammered. Nice.

Categories : Game Stories
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Sep
04

Trenton’s playoff hopes fading

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Zach McAllister was In The Team Photo of this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet for the second time in three weeks.

Triple-A Scranton (7-3 win over Rochester)
Brett Gardner: 0 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SB – played six innings in the field
Freddy Guzman: 1 for 1, 1 R, 1 SB – took over for Gardy
Kevin Russo: 0 for 5, 2 K – 0 for his last 15 … wtf?
Austin Jackson: 2 for 5, 1 RBI, 2 K
Shelley Duncan & Juan Miranda: both 1 for 5, 1 R – SHELLEY SOLO HOMER … Miranda doubled & K’ed
Cody Ransom & Colin Curtis: both 1 for 4 – Ransom doubled, drove in a run & scored another
Reegie Corona: 2 for 3, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – 7 for his last 17 (.412)
Chris Stewart: 2 for 4
Ivan Nova: 6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 WP, 4-10 GB/FB – 60 of 101 pitches were strikes
Humberto Sanchez: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2-2 GB/FB – 17 of 31 pitches were strikes (54.8%) … he’s been really, really good for about a month now
Eric Wordekemper: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-1 GB/FB – 9 of 15 pitches were strikes (60%)

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Categories : Down on the Farm
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Sep
04

Game 135 Spillover Thread

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OMG he’s only 12 outs away you guys!

Categories : Game Threads
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The Joba Rules. If I never hear that phrase again, it will be too soon. The rules are, of course, what would govern any young pitcher in Joba’s situation. But the media has taken the Yanks handling of Joba as a personal affront, and seemingly mock these “rules” at every turn (though there are obvious exceptions). The Yankees are in the precarious position of balancing short-term needs with long-term goals. Those are not easy waters to navigate. They’re doing their best, although mistakes have been made in the past.

The idea is that Joba will go three or four innings today, with an indeterminate cap on his pitches. This is in an effort to build him back to to the six, seven inning range by the time October rolls around. I hope this is the right move, though I’m not sure what, beyond completely shutting him down at around 150 to 160 innings, would be an optimal course of action.

Girardi won’t have the luxury of Al Aceves to back up Joba this time, nor will he have Chad Gaudin. If the game gets out of hand either way we could see the likes of Edwar Ramirez and Mike Dunn get in the game. Otherwise we’ll probably see Jon Albaladejo and Mark Melancon fill the middle innings, with Phil Coke taking the 8th inning slot. Presumably, Mariano Rivera is not available again tonight.

Toeing the rubber for the Jays is Roy Halladay, perpetual Yanks nemesis. Well, that is, until this year. The Yanks have tagged him for five runs in each of his last two starts. In fact, Halladay hasn’t been at all himself since the calendar flipped to August. He opened the second half strong, throwing back to back nine-inning appearances out of the gate, against the Sox and the Rays, and then had a rough but serviceable start in Seattle. He hasn’t been the same since.

In his last 42 innings, Halladay has allowed 27 runs, though only 22 earned. That’s good for a 4.71 ERA, certainly un-Halladay-ian. The big culprit: homers. He’s allowed eight in that span, a far, far cry from where he normally sits. That, and the .860 OPS against in August, doesn’t bode well for him as he faces the homer-happy Yankees.

Quite a strange lineup. Jeter has the night off, which is understandable, but Hinske batting second? Wouldn’t Cano be better in that spot? Anyway…

Lineup:

1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Eric Hinske, RF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Ramiro Pena, SS

And on the mound, number sixty-two, Joba Chamberlain.

Categories : Game Threads
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Like it or not, the topic of Derek Jeter‘s contract is going to come up a lot over the next year, and we’ll see increasing mentions as we move closer to the end of the 2010 season, when his current deal expires. We know that Jeter isn’t thinking about his contract right now, and it appears the Yanks aren’t either. Both Jayson Stark and Jon Heyman note the obvious: the Yanks will wait until after the 2010 season to negotiate with Jeter. In other words, everyone gets treated the same. Mo and Posada didn’t get extensions before their deals were up, and it appears Jeter won’t either.

Heyman notes that negotiations this off-season would heavily favor Jeter, since he’s in the midst of a top-three season (1999 and 2006 also stand out). While that’s true to some extent, it still doesn’t seem like the top reason why the two parties will wait things out. The idea of treating Jeter the same as his peers Posada and Rivera would seem paramount in this situation. Then again, the Yanks got burned on the Posada deal, and might have been able to lock up Mo for a bit less had they negotiated before the season. Perhaps they’d do better to haggle with Jeter this off-season.

There’s one sentence in the Stark piece that makes it seem as if the timing of the deal won’t much matter. “From what we’re gathering, Jeter and Close have been all but assured by the Yankees that the club will make sure Jeter is taken care of when the time comes.” That sentence is rife with ambiguity, from the opening clause to the “taken care of” bit. This is what many of us presumed. Both parties know that they’re best taken together, and neither wants a messy divorce. They’ll come to some sort of agreement. I’m pretty sure players can’t have an ownership stake in the team, but could the Yankees set that up for Jeter for when he retires?

Yes, this subject will be beaten to death by the time the 2010-2011 off-season rolls around. Sorry. The tenor of the discussion seems to be positive, though. I know many people who think that the situation could get ugly, but I’m not among them. Derek Jeter and New York go together like all those cliches about things that go well together. With his contract and endorsement deals, Jeter is set for life. I think we’ll see a rather painless reunion after next season.

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I saw only bits and pieces of the George Steinbrenner Yankeeography this week. At some point, I’ll sit down and watch this entire odd to the Boss, but what I saw was reminiscent of a distinct era in Yankee history, one long gone.

The Boss of the 1970s and 1980s was a man unto himself. He was loud and brash. He wanted the Yankees; he wanted headlines; he wanted championships. Despite his early promises of hands off management, he courted controversy and attention as a moth to a flame.

Steinbrenner’s shenanigans worked in the late 1970s as the Yankees won. The team members hated each other, and many players had a love-hate relationship with their boss – the Boss. Yet, the Bronx Zoo years remains one of the more colorful eras in Yankee and New York history, and nostalgia for that era reigns supreme. Whether we should yearn for those days of Billy and Thurmon and Reggie is another question entirely.

In the 1980s, a few years removed from the Yanks’ last world title, George wore thin. He hired, fired and rehired managers on a whim and was impatient with his GMs. A revolving door of players came and went, oftentimes in a matter of months as George tried to put together a team according to his and his so-called Baseball People’s ideas, and the farm system was neglected. The Yanks won more regular season games in the 1980s than any other AL team but post-season success eluded them.

In the 1990s, a new Boss emerged. Suspended at the start of the decade, George couldn’t interfere, and Gene Michael, Brian Cashman and the Yanks’ Front Office were free from the constraints and demands of the Boss. A last-place finish in 1991 guanranteed them Derek Jeter in the following year’s draft, and the rest is history.

George came back and let his employees run the team. He would roar, but it was all for show. No one was fired, and the good times rolled.

Today, George is ailing. Rumors of Alzheimer’s have swirled around him for the better part of the decade, and he rarely makes appearances at games. He speaks primarily through Howard Rubenstein and has turned control of the team over to his sons and daughters.

This week though George showed up at the office for a few hours, and he made some headlines. Promising to come to New York for the playoffs, he said, “Let’s keep it going.”. And that was it. No threats if failure follows; no promises of an easy October. Just a weak encouragement.

Once upon a time, we would yearn for George-inspired stories. Nothing makes for better headline fodder than a roaring lion. But that’s not George anymore. His influence is on the wane, and while we might pine for the Boss-inspired Years of Terror, the Yankees are better off without it.

Categories : Front Office
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Sep
04

RAB Live Chat

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Categories : Chats
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Sep
04

Is velocity really everything?

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Over the past two seasons we’ve come to see sub-par, by their standards, velocity from two Yankees young pitchers, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Hughes was up first in 2008. He was throwing around 91, when minor league scouting reports had him up around 93, hitting 94 and 95 on occasion. When he dropped down in 2008, we at RAB said not to worry. Velocity isn’t everything, after all. Then came Joba this year. Up around 95 as a starter last year, he’s been in the 92 mph range for most of this year. Again, we said don’t panic, he has other offerings which can help him excel at the major league level.

As it turns out, we might have overstated the “velocity isn’t everything” argument. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (sorry, subscription required) takes a look at a pitcher’s velocity as it relates to his major league success. While both Joba and Phil could survive with 91, 92 mph heat and a couple of quality secondary pitches, any lower and they might be in some trouble. Velocity, it would seem, is the best predictor of whether a pitcher can hack it at the major league level.

Yes, there’s plenty more that goes into it, but as the data shows, 92 percent of major league pitchers this season (who have thrown more than 300 fastballs) throw at 89 or higher. For those throwing softer, it takes a bit of deception to bridge the divide. Sidewinders like Brad Ziegler and Cla Meredith, and deception artists like Chris Young and Yusmeiro Petit can survive by hiding the ball from batters. But for your run-of-the-mill pitcher tossing 88, 89? That’s probably not going to hack it.

So, to answer the question of the headline, velocity isn’t everything. But it does appear to be the best single predictor of a pitcher’s ability to hang in the majors. Of course, it can’t be done without some semblance of command — see Jason Neighborgall — or secondary pitches, but without velocity it might not be attainable at all. Perhaps this is one of the reasons the Yankees declined to trade for Brian Bannister.

Categories : Pitching
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When Jorge Posada deposited a Jason Frasor pitch into the second deck at Rogers Centre last night, he became the seventh Yankee to reach the 20 home run mark. Not many teams have seven guys who hit 20 or more homers. In fact, Jorge pushed the Yankees into a tie for first place all time, with the 1996 Orioles, 2000 Blue Jays, and 2005 Rangers. At the rate the Yankees have knocked pitches out of the park this season, this feat isn’t completely unexpected.

With 28 games left to play, Derek Jeter will have plenty of chances to put his team in first place by itself. He needs just three home runs to reach the milestone, and is right on pace to hit it. Not that the Captain really cares. “I could care less if I ever hit another home run,” he told reporters. Classic Jeter. Not that he’s wrong. It’s a pretty meaningless record in the grand scheme of things. More than anything, it’s a testament to how well this offense has hit.

It doesn’t look like the Yankees will tie the record for most players with 30 or more homers, four, held by 10 teams. Unsurprisingly, four of those squads are the Colorado Rockies, from 1995 through 1997, and then again in 1999. Mark Teixeira is over 32 already, but the next closest, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon, are ate 24.

As a team the Yankees have 210 home runs, tops in the AL by a decent margin. That puts them on pace for 253 homers (254 rounding up), which would fall 11 short of the all-time record of 264 set by the Seattle Mariners in 1997. The Yankees team record is in sight, though. They hit 242 as a team in 2004. The only way they don’t reach that is if they decide to rest their starters amply in the final weeks of the season. (Which, may I add as an aside, didn’t work too well in 2006.)

Many will write off this achievement, saying the Yankees are propped up by the comfy dimensions of the new Stadium. Yet that completely discounts the bombing they’ve done on the road. Their 93 road homers also leads the league. With a team .832 OPS on the road, it’s tough to argue that they’re getting it all done at home.

The homers aren’t necessarily essential to the team’s success, but they’re sure fun to watch. The sheer number of them, both the raw totals and compared to the rest of the league, demonstrates what an offensive force the team has become — or returned to being. It’s one more fun aspect in an eminently enjoyable 2009 season.

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