Archive for September, 2009
Misunderstanding randomness, by Tom Verducci
Posted by: | CommentsThe one thing I love about the evolving use of mathematics in baseball is that it helps us learn math concepts outside the class room. I played Tetris on my graphing calculator in the back of calculus class in high school, but once I see a concept applied to baseball stats, I’m all ears. My fascination with randomness started with baseball, and was amplified by this guy. I’m still a fledgling in randomness, but I can usually recognize when someone is misusing the concept, as Tom Verducci did.
His argument goes a little like this. When you seed all the playoff teams by record, and then see how those seeds fared in the postseason, you’ll see that seed has no correlation to World Series championships. In fact, in the past nine years, the first through seventh seeds have each won the series once, while seed eight or worse have won it twice. Verducci presents a table with the data, but Flip Flop Fly Ball has an even better one.
Unfortunately, Verducci misses something in all this. Yes, in the playoffs it appears not to matter what seed you were in the regular season. But this information by itself does not denote a completely, or even somewhat, random situation, as Verducci believes.
So the next time an expert tells you that they know who is going to win the World Series because a certain team is “built for the postseason” or because of how well that team played in the regular season, don’t believe it. As the chart shows, the postseason is incredibly random, partly because all the off days make for very different circumstances than teams find all year, but mostly because it’s such a small sample. The best team doesn’t always win the World Series — or even anything close to most of the time. The hottest team wins it.
The data, as presented, does not dispel the “built for the postseason” argument. Just last month we looked at some research regarding playoff success, conducted by Nate Silver, who knows a bit more about randomness than Verducci (it’s part of Nate’s vocation). They found three factors — strikeout rate, closer, and defense — pretty accurately predicts postseason success. So what gives here?
Just because there’s a random distribution of seeded teams winning the World Series does not make the process random. It could just be — and I’m sure Silver would argue this — that the teams best built for the postseason happen to finish in different spots every year. As we’ve learned this decade, what works in the regular season doesn’t necessarily work in the postseason. A team could have a mediocre offense, but could also have a staff that strikes out a lot of hitters, a shutdown closer, and a solid defense. Those attributes would help them win in the playoffs, regardless of their seed.
In some ways, I do think that the playoffs are a crapshoot. A team can get hot at the right time and mow down the competition. A great team can get cold and take an early exit. But I also understand that there are other factors that play into the playoff equation, and I wouldn’t write them off as completely random. Verducci does a good job to show that teams of all seeds can win and have won the World Series. That doesn’t mean that the process is completely random.
Mike Ashmore’s Q&A with Phil Hughes
Posted by: | CommentsEveryone’s favorite Double-A beat witer recently caught up with Phil Hughes, speaking about everything from his transition to the big leagues to how he’s dealt with all the hype. It seems like just yesterday that Hughes was dominating the Double-A Eastern League, but in fact it was three full seasons ago now. It’s amazing how things change in such a relatively short time.
Make sure you check it out, it’s a short but excellent read.
Game 154 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsEven with that last homer, just a tremendous outing for Joba.
Game 154 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsLet’s all hope Lester’s okay. You don’t want to see anyone get hurt like that.
Game 154: 49 years ago, this would have been the last game
Posted by: | CommentsIn 1960, the Yankees finished 97-57, first place by eight games in the eight-team AL East. The next year the AL picked up two more teams: the Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels. With the expansion in teams came an expansion in schedule, from 154 to 162 games. The Yankees went 109-53 in 1961, winning again by eight games. The team the Yankees beat in the World Series that year, the Cincinnati Reds, played just 154 games that season. The NL didn’t go to 162 games until the 1962 season.
While this series doesn’t come with the typical New York – Boston intensity, it is still compelling. If Boston sweeps they knock out Texas, regardless of what the latter does. If the Yankees sweep, they clinch the AL East. Either could reduce their magic number to one by taking two out of three. At this point these can be considered housekeeping matters, but the Yanks surely want to get the AL East wrapped up as quickly as possible.
With Jon Lester on the mound, it’ll be tough sledding for the Yanks. He had a rough start to 2009, but even amid his horrible 59-inning start to the season he was able to hold the Yanks to three runs over seven innings. Since June 1, Lester has pitched 129.1 innings, allowing just 31 earned runs and striking out 141 to 36 walks. It’s been nothing short of dominance. In that span he’s allowed more than three runs just once, a four-run performance against Oakland at the end of July that the Red Sox won. The Red Sox are 15-4 in Lester’s last 19 starts.
Last time the Yanks saw Lester it was in the final game of a four-game sweep at the Stadium. Lester pitched brilliantly, allowing just one run, an A-Rod bomb, over seven innings, striking out seven and walking none. Daniel Bard blew that one for him, though it wouldn’t have even come to that if Andy Pettitte didn’t pitch brilliantly over his seven innings.
After showing some progress in starts against the Rays and Angels, Joba Chamberlain took a step backward last time out against Seattle. He allowed far too many baserunners, and let most of them score. Now he goes from the horrible Mariners offense to the formidable Red Sox one. Joba has started three times against the Sox and has yet to record 18 outs. Even in his standout 12-strikeout performance he allowed four runs in the first, putting the game out of reach for the A-Rod-less Yankees.
Even if Joba pitches well tonight, it’s almost certain that he won’t start in the ALDS. Via PeteAbe, the Yanks have lined up CC, Pettitte, and Burnett to pitch the final three games of the season. That puts CC in a position to start Game 1 of the long ALDS on normal rest. The short series begins on the eighth, which would put everyone on long rest.
Pete seems to think that lining up CC, Pettitte, Burnett in the season’s final series implies that they’ll go that way in the playoffs. I wouldn’t be so sure. In the long series the Yanks will play the Tigers or Twins on the 7th and 9th. That would line up both CC and Burnett on normal rest. Pettitte would then have to start on seven days’ rest, but given how well he pitched on long rest in Anaheim, that might not be a concern. Pitching Pettitte in Game 2, on 5 days’ rest, would mean pitching Burnett on six days’ rest. I think they’re more likely to go Pettitte on seven before A.J. on six.
It’s the A lineup tonight.
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Nick Swisher, RF
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
And on the mound, number sixty-two, Joba Chamberlain.
Spike Lee unveils World Series cap
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Spike Lee and his hats are quite the scene. Known for his films and antics during Knicks games, the Brooklyn-based movie director is also a big Yankee fan, and in the past, he has worked with New Era to produce a hat commemorating Yankee World Series victories. With the playoffs upon us, Lee has issued another cap in his Spike Lee Joint line of baseball apparel. The cap, shown above, is quite the overload of numbers.
“When it came time to design another cap with New Era, it seemed fitting that it represent the most decorated franchise in professional sports – the New York Yankees,” Lee said on Friday. “On the cap, I inscribed each year the Yankees won the championship, Now, I’m hoping we can add the year 2009 to that list come October.”
The cap will be available as a Limited Edition release only. New Era plans to make just 750 of these caps, and they will retail for $75 each. For that price — approximately double the cost of an undoctored 59Fifty hat — Lee’s cap comes with a commemorative box too.
Reaction to the cap has been mixed. In principle, the idea is interesting, but Jason at IIATMS called it some combination of hideous, monstrous, dumb and ugly. While I like my patches and will hopefully be adding a 2009 World Series cap to my collection, I think I’ll stay away from the $75 Spike Lee Joint.
Pondering Brandon Webb
Posted by: | CommentsWhile Yankee fans do not often find themselves much concerned with the affairs of the Arizona Diamondbacks, this off-season may see a prized D-back pitcher hit free agency. Brandon Webb is Arizona’s equivalent to Chien-Ming Wang. A sinkerball specialist, who, by the way, like Wang, Webb has missed nearly all of 2009 with shoulder problems. His contract features an $8.5 million team option that may push Webb into a shallow free agent pitching pool.
Over the last week, news from the desert has focused around this bonus. The Arizona Front Office wants to restructure the option to be incentive-based. After all, there is no guarantee that Webb will rebound after throwing just four innings at the Major League level this year (and all on Opening Day). But Webb will have none of it. He says he’ll be healthy for 2010 and is more than willing to test the free agent waters.
Earlier today, Chris at iYankees pointed the way to a rumor linking Webb with the Yanks, among other teams. In a video post, Buster Olney reports that the Yankees could offer Webb a one-year deal come this off-season. The usual suspects — Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, and White Sox — also figure to keep an eye on Webb. That ought to keep Webb’s value up.
Olney’s report is contingent upon the D-backs’ desire to save $6.5 million. If they don’t pick up Webb’s option, the buy-out is $2 million, and sources in Arizona anticipate Webb returning next year. It is, however, nice to dream.
For his career, Brandon Webb has an ERA+ of 142 and a K/9 IP of 7.3. Before coming down with a shoulder injury this year, he had never missed a start. He throws a heavy and hard sinker similar to Wang’s, but unlike the Yanks’ injured pitcher, Webb has better command of his secondary pitches. He uses those pitches to get the strike outs that Wang doesn’t.
Heading into next year, the Yankees will have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett atop their rotation. Joba Chamberlain, despite the posturing, will be there, and Andy Pettitte will probably return. The last spot then will go to some mix of Phil Hughes, Al Aceves, Ian Kennedy or Chien-Ming Wang. If Webb is a free agent, adding him to the mix would give the Yanks some stellar depth. As fun as it is to ponder, I wouldn’t count on it though.
RAB Live Chat
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Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
