Archive for September, 2009
2009 Draft: Lane Meyer’s Draft Grades
Posted by: | CommentsDraft coverage all-star Lane Meyer of NoMaas posted his review of this year’s draft class, grading the thing out on a pick-by-pick basis. I think Lane might be a little too optimistic with some of the grades (Caleb Cotham screams generic college starter to me), but there’s nothing wrong with that, and overall he did a great job. He gives the entire class a B+, but I’m a tough grader so I consider it more of a C+/B- haul because of the lack of an obvious impact player. Don’t get me wrong, Slade Heathcott and JR Murphy are studs, but more like above average regulars than true impact talents.
Anyway, make sure you head on over and check it out.
The return of Godzilla
Posted by: | CommentsGet your pencils ready; it’s time for a quiz. Who has the second most home runs on the Yanks? Third most RBIs? Third highest OPS? And who has done this in 495 plate appearances, fewer than all but Jorge Posada among Yankee regulars? By now, of course, the answer is clear: Hideki Matsui is having a season, for him, for the ages, and in doing so, he is going to force the Yanks’ hand in November.
Matsui’s season wasn’t on pace to end up this way. June 28 marked the Yanks’ last Interleague game, and Hideki Matsui pinch hit against the Mets. That wrapped up a month of irregular play and little success for the once-mighty Yankee DH. He was hitting .246/.345/.463 with 10 HR and just 28 RBIs. Unable to play the outfield due to his very creaky knees, Matsui seemed to be on his last legs.
Since then, however, Matsui has been every bit the force in the Yankee lineup that the team expected him to be. Over his last 261 PAs, Hideki is hitting .310/.396/.588 with 18 HR and 60 RBI. He leads all Yankees in home runs and slugging over that stretch and is one of the key movers behind the Yanks’ run toward the best record in baseball. His home run last night was an unsung moment in the game, a blast well into the high porch in right field.
Matsui is also heading toward free agency, and the Yankees are going to have to decide if they want to bring him back as their full-time DH. Over the course of the season, the Yanks have intimated that, with their aging team, they would prefer to keep the designated hitter spot open for its veterans. They can rest Jorge Posada without losing his bat. They can cycle Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Johnny Damon — if he returns — through that spot. With Matsui limited to DH duties, the Yanks would have more roster flexibility without him. They would also have fewer wins.
I’ve briefly touched upon this idea in the past, but Matsui’s value to the team’s offense cannot be understated. Few teams have a DH as good as he is. In fact, among full-time designated hitters, Matsui’s .905 OPS ranks him second. While the league’s DHs are averaging a .255 BA with a .781 OPS, the Yanks are far outpacing that figure thanks to Matsui.
From a value perspective, Matsui has a 32.1 VORP and a 2.5 WAR (wins above replacement). If the Yanks go with their rotation DH plans, their lineup would include a subpar hitter nearly every day. Ramiro Peña has a 1.1 VORP and a 0.3 WAR. Jose Molina’s and Franciso Cervelli’s respective offenses both put them below replacement level on the VORP scale. Molina’s WAR is 0.2, and Cervelli’s is 0.1. Faced with a very competitive Red Sox team, the Yanks can ill afford to let Matsui’s 2.5 wins simply walk away unreplaced.
As the Yankees head into the playoffs, Hideki Matsui will anchor this offense. He can hit lefties; he can hit righties; and apparently, he can hit in Anaheim too. He may be old; his knees may be frail; but he can hit with the best of them. The Yanks should look to bring him back next year on a one-year deal. Unless they can find a suitable replacement, the team will miss his bat if it isn’t there.
Game 152 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsChances we see Hughes for two innings? 0%
Chances we see Bruney blow the lead? 75%
Game 152: Please beat the Angels
Posted by: | CommentsWe all want to see the Yankees win every game. We know it’s impossible, but wins are just so nice that we tend to get greedy. Tonight, I don’t think it’s a matter of greed. It’s a matter of winning a game to relieve the fanbase of some anxiety. Andy Pettitte helped with his performance last night, and the next step is to pick up a W against the Angels in Anaheim.
The Yanks will go at it with Chad Gaudin, their recently named fifth starter. The Yanks acquired him in early August for $100,000 and the pro-rated league minimum salary. What a steal he’s been. It hasn’t been perfect — and no one would expect that from Gaudin, who at 26 years old is already something of a journeyman.
In four starts so far with the Yankees Gaudin has thrown 19.2 innings, allowing seven runs and striking out 15 to 11 walks. That’s a rough ratio, but nearly half those walks came in his first start for the Yanks, against Oakland. He might have a rough go tonight: he’s typically hell on righties, but the Angels have a ton of switch hitters. Gaudin could face a lot of guys hitting lefty.
The Angels will send out Ervin Santana. After what seemed like a breakout year in 2008, in which he had a 4.55 K/BB ratio and a 3.49 ERA in 219 innings, Santana has regressed in 2009. He missed all of April with an elbow injury, and pitched horribly when he came back. It wasn’t long before he complained of forearm tightness, eventually hitting the DL with “inflammation in his triceps area.” Yet even since his return from that he’s been a disappointment, striking out just 74 and walking 31 in 91.1 innings. His ERA in that span is 4.73, a bit down from his season ERA of 5.43.
Once again, Girardi is not messing around, hauling out a version of the A-lineup.
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Nick Swisher, RF
9. Brett Gardner, CF
And on the mound, number forty-one, Chad Gaudin.
David Robertson Injury Update: D-Rob took 20 pitches from a mound in the bullpen prior to the game. According to numerous reports from Anaheim, the right-hander is feeling great and will toss another pen session on Thursday. He should be activated in time to face Boston over the weekend.
Open Thread: Ground Rules Reminder
Posted by: | CommentsWe have to do this every so often, so with the team in a bit of a funk and the playoffs coming around, now is as good a time as any. Below are our Commenting Guidelines, the 11 simple things we ask in return for providing you this wonderful (and free!) site. You can access them at any time via the nav bar above, just under the street sign.
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Here’s your open thread for the night. The Mets and Braves are playing, and my guide says the MLB Network is carrying a game at 7pm, but the teams are TBA. Talk about whatever you want while waiting for the Yanks game, just be cool. And follow the damn guidelines!
Link Dump: Sotomayor, Fresh Prince, AAA, fastballs
Posted by: | CommentsJust some reading material for between now and the game.
Justice Sotomayor to throw out first pitch Saturday
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, recently sworn in as the 111th Supreme Court Justice, will throw out the first pitch on Saturday when the Yankees face the Red Sox. Raised in the Bronx, Sotomayor is famous in baseball circles because “she issued an order that helped end the Major League Baseball strike of 1994-95.” Want to impress us, Justice? Throw a strike from the mound.
When I saw the juxtaposition of Chad Gaudin in Will Smith in the headline of Marc Carig’s article, I didn’t know what to expect. He makes it clear early on: Gaudin was having trouble in San Diego, so the Padres sent him to live with his auntie and uncle in New York. It’s a great look at Gaudin, who has impressed the Yankees enough during his tenure to earn a rotation spot.
AAA outfielders, 2009 and 2010
Chad Jennings lines up reviews of the six primary outfielders for Scranton Wilkes-Barre this season (plus one who got two at bats). He then takes a look at the names for next year. There doesn’t appear to be much turnover, but there are some variables there. Most notably, Shelley Duncan, who could be a minor league free agent if removed from the 40-man roster, and Colin Curtis, Rule 5 eligible, could head elsewhere.
In an awesome bit on The Baseball Analysts, Chris Moore look at the top 20 fastballs from 2007 and August 2009, rated by control, velocity, and movement. Only one Yankee appears on the list (guess who), and Roy Halladay appears twice in the top 7. Yeah, that guy’s just a little good. The guy who ranks No. 1 is pretty good too, I hear.
Cashman: ‘No assumptions’ Joba will pitch in Oct.
Posted by: | CommentsAnyone watching the Yankees knows that Joba Chamberlain‘s last seven weeks have been tumultuous to say the least. Since starting the second half 3-0, Joba has gone 1-4 with an 8.25 ERA over his last nine starts. Limited to just 36 innings, Joba has allowed 50 hits and 21 walks while striking out just 27. Opponents are hitting .327/.409/.523, and whether we blame the Joba Rules, the extreme media attention to him, fatigue or the Moon’s current position in retrograde, everyone agrees that Joba Chamberlain has stunk up the joint lately.
While on Sunday, Joe Girardi half-heartedly committed himself to Joba in October, the Yanks’ GM was singing a different tune to Pete Caldera today. In an interview with The Record scribe, Cashman explained how Joba will have to earn a postseason roster spot. “He needs to declare himself. He’s no different than anyone else,” Cashman said. “Everybody loves his tenacity. But we’re going to take the best 10 guys. There’s no assumptions there.”
This is, of course, a warning and a threat from Brian Cashman. It’s probably an effort to light a fire under Joba, and we all know Joba could use something to spur him on. It is also an indication to watch closely tonight. In Anaheim, Chad Gaudin will take the ball and face the AL West-leading Angels. While we toss around the phrase “playoff preview” as a joke, Gaudin’s start tonight is a playoff preview. If he can hold down the Angels, he will, for better or worse, begin to inch ahead of Joba on the Yanks’ October depth charts.
So with Joba’s job in jeopardy, the Yankees will have to fill in a postseason roster somehow. Brian Cashman’s comment — “we’re going to take the best 10 guys” — gives us a starting point for a talk. The mortal locks include CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, some guy named Mariano, Phil Hughes, Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves. That leaves us with three spots for Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin, Damaso Marte, David Robertson, Jonathan Albaladejo, Edwar Ramirez, Sergio Mitre and Mark Melancon.
We can, after last night, dispatch with Brian Bruney. His ERA as a reliever isn’t horrible, but since Aug. 1, he has allowed 29 base runners in 16 innings. Over that stretch, he is sporting an ugly 3:4 K:BB ratio. He claimed his mechanics were fine, but the results aren’t there. Sergio Mitre, Jonathan Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez belong in the same boat. None has have much to offer.
Melancon is an intriguing candidate because he is a highly-touted prospect, but he hasn’t sported very good control at the Major League level. He is striking out and walking 5.5 men per 9 IP and has a propensity toward hitting batters. The Yankees will, however, probably take Damaso Marte just to deploy him against lefties. His numbers are bad, but the stuff has always been tantalizing. Having two lefties in the pen would do wonders for the Yanks.
In the end, then, the Joba decision will come down to two factors. There is first the David Roberston factor. If the Yanks’ unheralded middle relief specialist can come back strong this weekend, he will join the mortal locks. After watching Bruney and Albaladejo cough up the game last night, Robertson can’t come back fast enough.
If Robertson is healthy, then, the debate will be Gaudin vs. Joba. And there we are, back to tonight’s game. Chad Gaudin and Joba Chamberlain, whether they realize or not, are auditioning for the same playoff spot. With 11 games left, this battle is the season within the season. While the last man standing so to speak won’t be that determinative of the Yanks’ October chances, we will get to see just how much faith the Yanks have in Joba Chamberlain right now.


