Archive for September, 2009
Despite blip, Yanks have matters well at hand
Posted by: | CommentsAre the Yankees on their way to a September collapse? Depending on who delivers your information, that might be the case. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10, and the Red Sox are 8-2. That’s allowed the latter to gain a few games, four since the end of play on September 9. The Yanks had a nine game lead at that point, and it division seemed wrapped up. Now with a five game lead, it might not seem as much of a lock.
This reeks of specious logic. From September 10 through September 21, the Red Sox gained four games. That’s 12 days. For the Red Sox to take the division, they’d have to play just as well and the Yankees would have to play just as poorly as they both are right now. While that’s a possibility, it’s far from probable. The Yankees have the best record in baseball. They even have a winning record in September — a convincingly winning one at that. Are we really to expect a full collapse?
The reason many people thought the Yankees had the division wrapped up on September 9 was because of the massive lead. Even if things didn’t go quite a well from there on out, they still had a huge margin of error. Some of that margin has slipped over the past few weeks, but there’s been another change: there are fewer games left in the season. So while the Red Sox have crept closer, the Yankees are actually closer to a division win: their magic number has gone from 14 on the ninth to eight today.
As the Yanks work through a small slump, the pundits are active. I’ve seen more than one comparison to the 2000 team lately, one which played particularly poorly in September. They entered the month with a 74-56 record, first in the AL East by five games, and went a paltry 13-18 over the season’s final 31 games. The Red Sox tried to play catch-up, but finished 85-77, 2.5 games back, after a 16-16 month. The difference, of course, is that Boston is playing quite a bit better this season than they were in 2000. So should the Yanks be scared?
Hardly. Even with the Yankees losing six of their last 10, they’re still 12-8 this month, and still have a five game edge on the Red Sox. The latter has gained some ground, and while four games is a significant margin in such a small time, it’s difficult to expect them to continue this pace. The Yankees have proven that they’re a good team, and we can expect them to shake this slump soon enough. With 11 games left and 13 for the Sox, the Yankees just need a combination of eight wins or Sox losses to wrap this up. It seems almost a certainty.
In fact, the Yankees might be slumping at just the right time. The last time they lost six of their last 10 was from June 12 through the 23 (or 13 through 24, but whatever), when they lost a few games to the Mets, Nationals, Marlins, and Braves. What did they do after that 4-6 stretch? They ripped off seven straight wins and 13 of their next 15.
These Yankees don’t slump for long. They’ve shown that they can win games, and it would seem a bit rash to think that a small slump, coming off a stretch where they were playing better than .750 ball in the second half, will alter that. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball — as our magic number says, it ain’t over ’til it’s over. But the Yankees have things pretty well in hand right now. It would take an uncharacteristic collapse for them to lose the division. I’m not sure why anyone would expect that.
Whither Al Aceves?
Posted by: | CommentsDown just two runs with six outs left at their disposal, the Yankees were certainly in an unfavorable position last night, but one we’ve seen them overcome plenty of times this season. Instead of holding the Halos down and keeping the deficit at two runs, the only-when-losing relief corps of Brian Bruney and Jon Albaladejo allowed the Angels to tack on some insurance runs, essentially putting the game out of reach.
As I said to Ben during the game, where was Al Aceves? As you know, he’s been used as Joba Chamberlain‘s personal caddy this month, backing him up when his starts were cut short due to his innings limit. However, Joba started just yesterday, and even if they need someone to soak up innings behind Chad Gaudin tonight, they have Josh Towers, Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Edwar Ramirez, and about a million other guys sitting out in the bullpen. Aceves was well rested, having not pitched in seven days. It just didn’t add up, it was still a winnable game with his team in a funk, but Joe Girardi didn’t put his best foot forward.
Ace is going to be a key cog in the Yankees postseason bullpen; he’s essentially going to be asked to bridge any gap between the starter and Phil Hughes, whether it be one out, one inning, or three innings. The problem is that Aceves hasn’t been used as a reliever much of late, in fact you can say he’s essentially been working on the Joba Rules. He’s made just six appearances in the last month, tossing 13.2 IP with a 3.29 ERA (3.02 FIP) and a .557 OPS against, and he hasn’t thrown in back-to-back days since July 20th & 21st. Only twice in the team’s last 42 games has Aceves come out of the bullpen in the middle of an inning. Ace has been extremely effective when used, although his appearances aren’t come as frequently as they once did.
Now don’t get me wrong, Aceves is a big boy who’s been around and has done the job all year, so surely he knows what he needs to do to keep himself prepared, but there’s a rust factor. How will he take to pitching in back-to-back days after not doing it for two months? What about warming up twice in a game? It’s almost like they need to work him a little like a guy on a minor league rehab assignment, getting him ready to be used whenever and wherever. I just can’t see how you could expect him to go from working two or three innings every five days for over a month to all of a sudden going back to being the uber-middle reliever he once was.
Maybe I’m just crazy and this is a non-issue. What do you think?
Pettitte eases concern over pitching staff
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees are not perfect. Despite having the best record in baseball, and despite coming off a stretch of nearly two months in which they played .750 ball, there are concerns with this team heading into the playoffs. Like most of their post-2003 counterparts, these are concerns with pitching. Even with a much-improved rotation the Yankees have issues after their No. 1 man, CC Sabathia. Thankfully, Andy Pettitte helped alleviate some of those concerns last night.
Pettitte was an integral part of the team’s August surge. He pitched 39.2 innings that month, striking out 39 to 12 walks and allowing only 13 runs, 11 earned. The Yankees went 6-0 in his starts. But in September the waters got a bit rougher. Pettitte allowed four runs over six innings, and then three runs over five innings. That last start came on Friday the 11th, and on Tuesday the 15th, just before his next scheduled start, we learned that the Yankees were pushing back his next start due to shoulder fatigue.
The news couldn’t have come at a worse time. A.J. Burnett was riding a string of poor starts, the only saving grace coming in the back half of a doubleheader against the Rays. In the two starts surrounding that he’d allowed 12 runs over 12.1 innings. Concerns abounded for Joba Chamberlain as well. After storming out of the gates in the second half, Joba was looking the worst of his career. Pettitte’s injury meant there were question marks with each of the team’s starters after Sabathia. That’s not a position a playoff team wants to be in.
By pitching well last night, Pettitte started to alleviate those concerns. He had trouble in the first inning, throwing 29 pitches and allowing two runs, but he settled down and worked quickly through the next three frames. Four of his six innings were of the 1-2-3 variety, though he did allow runs in the other two. The Yanks weren’t pushing too hard, as they lifted Pettitte after six innings and 91 pitches. He had shown them that he was healthy.
After the game, Pettitte said he felt good:
“Physically, everything was good,” the lefty said after pitching six solid innings. “Joe (Girardi) pulled me, he didn’t want me to push it. I felt things went well as far as me being healthy.”
Winning is the ultimate goal, but the Yankees got a decent consolation prize. No, Andy Pettitte probably won’t pitch again like he did in August. But he can still be a reliable arm in the playoffs. He’s had a few hiccups this season, but on the whole he’s bee the Yanks second-most reliable starter. They’re going to need him in three weeks, and Yanks fans can rest easy knowing he’ll be ready to answer the call.
Game 151: Out in LA
Posted by: | CommentsI’m stealing a bit of Fack Youk’s schtick here, but I just had to. But they didn’t pick this song, and it’s pretty freaking awesome. So feel free to click play and listen to the song while you read.
Angels Stadium of Anaheim: a place the Yankees apparently do not like playing. They’ve had their struggles there over the past few years, and the situation came to a head in the three games before the All-Star Break, when the Angels swept the Bombers.
Trends are great for one reason: by definition, they do not last forever. While the Yankees of recent past have had troubles out in LA, this is not the same group. No, the July series does not help their case, but that was a turning point in the season. The Yanks went on an absolute tear after that series, storming out of the gates in the second half and running strongly through August and the beginning of September.
There might have been some complacency brewing in the past week or so. The Yanks are 5-5 in their last 10, but after series against the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Mariners, are finally back to playing real competition. In fact, one of those five wins was against the Angels, as the Yanks rallied to a victory at the Stadium just a week ago. They’ll look for more of the same in this series.
Things start off with Joe Saunders, former first round pick. After a breakout season in 2008, things got ugly for Saunders in 2009. From June 30, when he entered with a 3.66 ERA, through August 7, he allowed 43 runs, 41 earned, over 38.1 innings. Something was clearly wrong, and on August 8 the Angels placed him on the 15-day DL with left shoulder tightness. For a team that has faced numerous pitching injuries, this was about the third-worst thing that could happen (Nick Adenhart – immeasurable gap – Kelvim Escobar – big gap – Saunders).
Since his return on August 26, Saunders has been nothing short of brilliant. He’s tossed 30 innings over five starts, allowing 10 runs, seven earned. That’s more like the Saunders the Angels were expecting this season. That’s unsustainable over a season for a guy with his stuff, but Saunders can go into stretches like this. The Yanks have to hope that his luck turns around a bit in this start.
Andy Pettitte makes his return for the Yankees this evening. After a dominant August, Pettitte ran into troubles in his two September starts. Like Saunders, Andy faced some shoulder issues. Unlike the Angels, the Yankees nipped it in the bud early. Andy hasn’t tossed a live inning until September 11, giving him a full nine days off. He swears he feels fine, but we shouldn’t expect Pettitte to say any different.
A win against the Angels tonight would be huge. Not only would it quell a few narratives, but it would knock that magic number down to Yogi/Dickey. That’s all the Yanks should be focused on now, getting that number to zero as quickly as possible.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Nick Swisher, RF
6. Jorge Posada, DH
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Jose Molina, C
And on the mound, number forty-six, Andy Pettitte.
Open Thread: In which we discuss how the Yankees are impacting farm systems in Japan
Posted by: | CommentsAs fans of the minor leagues and prospects, we know that winning in the minors will always take a back seat to development. It seems obvious, however on the other side of the lake Japanese clubs believe their minor league affiliates should focus on winning just as much as their Major League counterparts. That is starting to change though, thanks in part to the Yankees.
The Yomiuri Giants, Hideki Matsui‘s old team, have a relationship with the Bombers that allows their coaches to participate in what amounts to a study abroad program, where they spend time working in the Yanks’ minor league system. Kaoru Okazaki, essentially Yomiuri’s farm director, is taking what he learned during his time with the Yanks and is installing a more development-focused system for his club. Allow me to quote Ryo of NPB Tracker:
In Japan, the farm system believes in winning as much as their NPB teams and using a pinch hitter in game deciding situation remains to be a norm. NPB baseball operations personnel has a mindset that if the farm system isn’t winning, the players aren’t developing. In that case the ni-gun manager will not be evaluated efficiently, which results in aggressive decisions.
However Okazaki learned a different style in the minor leagues where players rarely get taken out of games. The evaluation comes into place playing a whole game and not only from a portion of the game. Learning the importance of allowing the players to play the whole game allowed Okazaki to have a better assessment on each player and decreases the possibility of missing out on players’ less obvious skills.
Even though there are players that need to be developed for certain situations (such as lefty-lefty match ups), Okazaki strongly believes in developing the overall skills in position players. The development of OF Tetsuya Matsumoto and INF Hayato Sakamoto has been hard to miss and if the Giants continue to have success in developing the young talents within their system, we could see a strong Giants team for a long time.
MLB and NPB have been developing a strong and mutually beneficial relationship for quite some time now, especially in the last few years. It’s great to see the benefits go beyond players and now extending into the coaching staffs. Nothing but good can come from this, for both sides.
* * *
Here’s your open thread for the night. The Yanks are still out on the west coast, so we’ve still got three hours to kill until first pitch. The Mets and Braves are crossing another meaningless game off their calenders in Flushing, while your MNF game is the Colts at Dolphins. Marian Gaborik is making his Rangers debut at the Garden tonight, although it’s just a preseason game. I also hear there’s a new episode of House on. Feel free to talk about whatever you want, just be civil.
The perfect use of WPA
Posted by: | CommentsIn baseball’s endless search for new ways to measure the game, we’ve recently seen the development of WPA. Using historical data, it tracks the odds a team has of winning a game at any given time, based on run differential, outs, and base situation. It has its flaws, but it does serve one purpose: it captures the essence of a game. Tom Tango examines this using a painful example, Ichiro’s walk-off. With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, WPA gave the Yanks an over-95-percent chance to win the game. Mike Sweeny’s double reduced that to 85.8 percent, and Ichiro made up all the difference. Tango also notes the general fan reaction, which makes sense after such an improbably turn around.
This feeds in nicely with the discussion in the Dominance Factors thread. The purpose of WPA is not to evaluate a player’s performance. It is to show the ebbs and flows of a game. Used for this purpose, it’s a wonderful stat. Used for others, it can mislead.
By request, the graph from that night:
From FanGraphs.
On playing the Angels
Posted by: | CommentsWhenever the Yankees and Angels square off, the coverage focuses around the Yanks’ seemingly historic inability to beat Anaheim. In fact, since 2002, the Angels, 40-30 against New York, are the only American League team to have a winning record against the Yankees. We shouldn’t put much credence into this number though.
The Yanks’ troubles seemingly took off in 2002 when the two teams squared off in the ALDS. While the Yankees won 103 games that year, the Angels had won 99 and were not a bad team by any means. The Yanks won the first game but dropped the next three. While Steve Karsay threw in all four playoff games, Mariano Rivera was deployed once, and the Yankee pitching just couldn’t withstand the Angels.
Three years later, the two teams met again in the ALDS. In between post-season match-ups, the Yankees went 14-14 against the Angels in the regular season, and in 2005, Los Angeles was 6-4 against New York. Both teams had won 95 during the regular season, but the Angels emerged victorious. Mike Mussina couldn’t hold down the team in Game 5 of the ALDS, and Bubba Crosby and Gary Sheffield collided disastrously in the outfield. It was a rather forgettable series.
Since then, the Yankees have gone just 13-23 against the Angels. While the Yanks are 9-9 at home, the Angels are 14-4 against the Yanks in Angels Stadium. As the Yankees battle for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the teams open up a somewhat pivotal three-game set tonight in Anaheim.
So should we care about the Yanks’ past performance? Do the Angels, as many are wont to say, get into the heads of the Yankees? Unless institutional memory is strong, it’s hard to see exactly how the Yanks allow previous years’ Angels losses to carry over.
The 2002 Angels were a team built on speed, pitching and Troy Glaus’ prodigious October power. There are just two players left them from that team on the Angels. John Lackey is still plugging away, and Chone Figgins had 12 ABs for the Angels that year. Just four Yankees — the so-called Old Guard of Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera — remain from the 2002 team. None of those are are thought of as weak-willed. I doubt the Angels are in their heads.
From 2005, a few other new faces join the rivalry. Along with Lackey and Figgins, the Angels still Vladimir Guerrero, Robb Quinlan, Juan Rivera, Maicer Izturis, Jeff Mathis and Ervin Santana. How some of those players have stuck around for four more years, I do not know. The Yankee hold-overs now include A-Rod, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and, to a lesser extent, Melky Cabrera and Chien-Ming Wang.
That leaves us generally with a nice narrative and little reason to believe it. The Yankees have struggled against the Angels over the last few years, but by going 3-4 and beating the Angels at their own game last week, the Yanks have shown improvement. Yet, just because they often lose to the same team does not mean that the Yankee pinstripes are afraid of or intimidated by the likes of Erick Aybar and Torii Hunter. It’s just a narrative.
The Angels play the Yankees hard because, well, the Angels are a good team. They are one of the winningest teams of the decade, and they are, depending upon the day, the second or third best team in the AL this season. Even the best teams will lose to other good teams, and that’s all there is to it.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
