Performing against the best
ByThe Yankees didn’t get to where they are by beating up on the weaklings of the league. After going a combined 2-12 against the Red Sox and Angels in the first half, but rebounded to go 12-2 against those clubs in the second half. We write things like “it’s still early, they’ll figure out,” and we’re usually greeted with “it’s May, it’s not that early” responses, but by gosh, things got figured out long before it was too late. Amazing. But I digress.
Anyway, the Yankees did not get to where they are right now by getting fat against the lesser teams. They lead all thirty big league clubs in AVG (.285, tied with Anaheim), OBP (.363, next is .351), and SLG (.480, next is .453), and before anyone tries The Bandbox Defense™, you should know that the Yanks have a .357 OBP and a .470 SLG on the road, both of which would still lead the big leagues. And as Gordon Edes points out, they aren’t just piling up those numbers against the David Hernandezes and Andy Sonnanstines of the world either.
Allow me to quote:
Best against the best: When the best hitters playing this October face the best pitchers, how can we predict who will come up big? Well, we employed statistics calculated on billjamesonline.net to get an idea. James breaks down how batters fared by the quality of pitchers faced, based on pitchers’ ERA. The best pitchers were considered those with ERAs at 3.50 or less, which generally covers a staff ace and in some cases a No. 2, a closer, and top-shelf setup men.
Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Torii Hunter, Matt Kemp and Orlando Hudson have posted some of the best numbers among the playoff qualifiers against the best pitchers. Cabrera is batting .359 against the best, though just three of his 32 home runs have come in those 142 at-bats. Holliday is batting .352 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and a .997 OPS against the best, while A-Rod is batting .284 with nine HRs, 22 RBIs, and a 1.014 OPS. Rodriguez, in fact, has more home runs and a higher OPS against the elite class than he had against the dregs.
[snip]
What about some of the big-name boppers? Albert Pujols (.272, four, 12, .804 OPS) has held his own, while Ryan Howard is batting just .224, but has hit 13 home runs and knocked in 27 runs. Derek Jeter is batting .292, while teammate Mark Teixeira has seven HRs and 22 RBIs to go with a .246 average. Manny Ramirez, the most feared bat in the ’08 postseason, has a so-so .279 average with five home runs and 12 RBIs.
The Red Sox lineup, loaded with All-Stars, has not put up numbers against superior pitching. David Ortiz is at .208, five and 15. Four other of Boston’s best hitters are at .220 or lower: Jason Bay (.204), Kevin Youkilis (.204), Dustin Pedroia (.206) and Victor Martinez (.220). Catcher Jason Varitek is batting .139.
Of course the problem with this study is the almighty sample size. It’s wonderful that A-Rod is bringing the pwn to the league’s best arms, but there’s just 34 pitchers in the AL with an ERA under 3.50 (min. 60 IP), and three of them are A-Rod’s teammates. How many plate appearances can he have against the other guys? There just isn’t much predictive value here. A-Rod is no more or less likely to do well in the postseason because of those numbers, and besides, postseason success doesn’t hinge on one guy. Everyone must contribute, and if someone fails, then it’s up to the other 24-guys to pick up the slack. It’s a team effort, and we see it happen every year. Yet again, I digress.
The old adage is that power pitching wins in October, and it’s true. As a team, the Yankees are hitting .273-.380-.478 off power pitches (B-Ref defines “power pitchers” as guys that combine to strikeout or walk at least 28% of the batters they face). That criteria includes pitchers like Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, basically the three best pitchers the Yankees could face in the AL portion of the playoffs. The Yanks have ten such “power pitchers” on their staff, including all five members of the rotation and four of its five best relievers (Al Aceves misses the cut).
Does that bode well for October? It certainly seems like it does. Boston is hitting off .258-.359-.442 off power arms, obviously very good, but the Angels? Just .245-.324-.380. Dee-troit? .229-.319-.389. Suddenly I even better about the Yankees playoff chances than I did before. You?
99 Comments»
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The Mason Williams Watch
Well, we employed statistics calculated on billjamesonline.net to get an idea.
I always picture in my mind that Bill James is being chained up in the basement of Fenway by Theo Fratelli, while being fed an infinite supply Baby Ruth bars. “FIX THAT STAT NOW, SLOTH!”
http://knowyourmeme.com/i/3128.....1244309403
yeah I see how that applies, but man that’s awful.
True story – I graduated from the same college as Matuszak (Univ. of Tampa) which is also where Sweet Lou, Tino, China (Joan Laurer) and Blue from Remember the Titans (Earl Poitier) went.
You had a whole country attend your school? That shit is bananas.
ICWUDT
My sister went there also, she transferred to FSU. My parents paid off her 3 years at FSU way before her one year at UT. Private schools FTW.
Former 49′er Freddie Solomon went there too.
Yeah I got my BS and MBA from UT and will be paying it off for a looooooooooooong time. Worth it though…
BTW, Martha Plimpton’s characters name in “The Goonies”? Stef Steinbrenner.
You know you left out their most famous alumnus…Constantino Martinez
Read his post again, more carefully.
Well, don’t I look like a youkilis
this one i like.
ANDY!
…
…
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YOU GOONIE!
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i feel better too. i can’t wait till the yanks just steamroll everyone and win it all. how cool awesome would that be? btw, we got the a lineup today
I think we should consider batting A-Rod eighth.
Have him bunt runners over too so he can set up Melky.
True story: After last night’s pregame ceremony honoring his hitting for the cycle, Melky now has a ring. ARod still has none.
ietc x1million
A-rod was married once so he does have one ring
To quote FOX Sports:
The reality that nobody can stay with the Yanks is starting to sink in.
Great post, it made me smile a lot a lot.
Argh, my comments keep nesting in the wrong place. Sorry everyone.
i thought calvin johnson was a red sox fan….
The Yanks have ten such “power pitchers” on their staff, including all five members of the rotation and four of
it’sits five best relievers (Al Aceves misses the cut).The power, it is amazing. That type of thing bodes very well for October baseball.
Unfortunately we’re doomed to have Brian Cashman run our team into the ground from here until eternity. What a jerk that guy is.
/ESPN Commenters and ESPN Radio callers
His WAT (Wins Above Theo) is 10.5. He sucks!
The Yanks have ten such “power pitchers” on their staff, including all five members of the rotation and four of its five best relievers (Al Aceves misses the cut).
I’m very aroused.
http://knowyourmeme.com/i/2003.....1253609830
(golfclap)
this was just what I needed to regain all the confidence I lost after reading that obviously well researched bit of flawless analysis from John Kruk last week. I guess winning 100+ games in the AL east wasn’t an accident after all.
The Yankees are 13th in the AL in their batters striking out. No wonder they clobber power pitchers.
I can’t remember a Yankee team, other than the 98 squad, better suited for the playoffs.
Thats kinda hard to beleive rite there.
When you are 102-56 but 15-16 collectively against 3 of the top teams in MLB (Bos, Angels; Phillies) its understandable where the perception might come that the Yanks beat up more on the weaklings. Problem with that perception is the Yanks simply rendered many of these teams “weaklings” by just consistently beating them this year (Twins; Tigers; Rays; Jays). You don’t get to Yanks record without regularly and thoroughly beating every kind of team (and ironically some of the worst Yank moments this year were against true weaklings like the Nats and White Sox). While we have been subjected to much talk about how in recent history wild cards stand as good or better chance to win the WS than the team with the best record when a team has a record and has actually played so much better than all the other playoff teams how can you not feel great about their playoff chances. The Yanks are, and should be, prohibitive favorites to not only take it all but to dominate in doing so and, if by chance they fall a little short of domination, that still means victory in my crystal ball.
I still say Al is the best player on the planet. He’s going to have a great post season.
His numbers against JV:
3 for 10, 2 BB’s and a Homah.
E-Jax:
9 for 22, 1 BB, 3 Hr’s and 3 Dubs.
Porcello: No AB’s
Rodney:
0 for 5 3 K’s. He can fix that up real quick.
We are gonna kill it in October. 7 days to the Post-Season! This time last year I was hoping we could get some damn pitchers and hanging my hat on the fact that Moose might win 20. It’s great how things change in a year.
(passes out bayonets)
There’s gotta be something going on behind the scenes with the Yanks the Sox pitchers. They *never* hammered Beckett like they did last time out, and they were well on their way to hammering Lester before he took the ball off the knee.
I remember a quote from someone after the Beckett game that said they took a different approach than previous games. I wonder if they changed their mindset with Lester as well.
Now all I’d like to see is Lackey get smacked around, but I don’t know if I’ll get the opportunity this season.
Swinging earlier in the count can be a great thing sometimes. Pitchers always want to get ahead in the count, and great pitchers usually have no problem doing that.
They *never* hammered Beckett like they did last time out,
false
6/5/06 they tagged him for 8 runs (7 earned) in just 1.1 featuring 3-run bombs by Andy Phillips (really?) and Giambi
8/19/06 they hammered him again–this time for nine runs over 5.2–that one featured a bases-loaded triple from Posada
and just this past April they tagged him for 8 runs in five innings in a game more remembered for Burnett sucking even worse and the Sox winning 16-11.
he has a lifetime 5.33 ERA and 1.439 WHIP against the Yankees
So does Bill James consider Beckett a “superior” pitcher?
he is a superior pitcher, he just doesn’t have a whole lot of success against the Yankees
Roy Halladay is 13-14, 4.43 against the Sox but 18-6, 2.84 against the Yankees
Ok, a more appropriate word would have been ‘rarely’.
nope–Beckett has pitched against the Yankees 17 times in his (non-playoff) career
nine of them have been “quality” starts (6+ innings, 3 runs or less), four have been the shellackings detailed above, and most of the rest are 5-7 innings of 4-run ball
53% quality starts I guess isn’t awful, but we are talking about elite pitchers here
There’s gotta be something going on behind the scenes with the Yanks the Sox pitchers. They *never* hammered Beckett like they did last time out, and they were well on their way to hammering Lester before he took the ball off the knee.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.....d_the_mean
Digression from the subject.
/Axisa’d
I lost my debit card, can someone loan me 20 bucks?
/Axisa’d
I find it funny that he seems to only have one debit card, zero credit cards and carries no cash. I’m not advocating having 11 credit cards and three debit cards, but jeez, he’s one step away from writing “IOU” in crayon. Have a backup. Always carry at least $50 in just-in-case cash.
Have a backup. Always carry at least $50 in just-in-case cash.
Yup.
You never know when you’ll be in a situation where you need it, like, say, you’re at a gas station on the other side of town and a hot tire salesman is filling up his car one pump over, and you wanna score some GHB and take advantage of him in sexual ways, but the GHB salesman only takes cash and there’s not an ATM in sight…
You know what I’m talking about, right? Right?
Story of my life. In other funny news, a buddy of mine went on a date with a Russian stripper. She drugged him and stole his wallet. He woke up in some weird place in Brighton Beach (he lives on the edge of Bed Stuy/Clinton) and had to walk all the way back home. He was late for work (he only got there because I took the train all the way out there and back into Manhattan to lend him some cash) and was ripped up by his boss. Head honchos are “reviewing the situation” on Monday.
I’m not sure if there’s a lesson here, but I find it a solid anecdote.
Yes, me and my one debit card. Life outside of my little RAB box is big and scary.
I used a big chunk of the cash I had on parking yesterday, thinking my debit card was safe at home. I want to avoid putting anything on my credit cards because I’m still carrying what I consider too much of a balance on them from when I got laid off last year.
Basing my financial lifestyle off that one comment is like Richard Justice basing Jon Van Every’s career based on six plate appearances.
/rant
is this a meme i missed?
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-606145
oh my.
Kudos to Kevin Long. We always knock him, but this shows that he’s doing more than eating sandwiches and saying, “Get me a sandwich, I’m Kevin Long.”
The Sox against the top three: 15-15
The Angels against the top three: 13-12 (did not play Phillies, substituted LAD)
The Phillies against the top three: 6-7 (again, substituted LAD for LAA)
The Phils have 27 wins against the Mets and Natinals. The Sox have 27 wins against the Jays and Orioles. The Yanks have 25 wins against the same two teams. In fact, check out the stats: The Yanks only sub-.500 records against all of baseball are against the NL East (Fla, Wsn, Phi) at a combined 3-6, though against all NL East opponents are 9-8. The Angels have only trounced two teams that they’ve played seven or more times, the Orioles, of course at 8-2, and the Royals at 9-1.
So, in conclusion, the Yanks have dominated all types of teams.
Reply fail. Was meant for Steve S.
Also an html fail. Man, this has been a rough outing.
You’re pulling a Phil Coke.
I was thinking more Josh Anderson.
2006 Chris Anderson?
Haven’t done drugs in years.
An article from April. Talk about premature proclamations….
http://www.sportingnews.com/ml.....egin-slide
“The Yankees spent gobs of money over the winter, and they’re on their way to missing the playoffs again.”
Yeah, that’s a fair statement to make on April 30th! Jackass.
enjoyed reading that.
Jonathan Van Every had 7 plate appearances when Richard Justice wrote that. SEVEN. (Actually, since the game on April 30th was likely after this article went to press, he really only had six, but whatevs.)
He had 6 more the week after that, and then went back to the minors and was never heard from again.
This article would be like a NYC writer writing a slob-job article about how great the Yankees are based on Cody Ransom coming up and running into a couple of fastballs.
Actually, since Richard Justice is from Texas, I guess this article would be more like a Wisconsin writer writing a slob-job article about how great the Yankees are based on Cody Ransom coming up and running into a couple of fastballs.
This is what happens when you divide by zero.
Cody Ransom saved the yankees.
Yeah yeah yeah. Convenient to bash Van Every. You neglect to mention his ZERO, yes 0.00 ERA. Dude is straight up a beast and Richard Justice knew it!
http://www.baseball-reference......;year=2009
MVP of team: Nick Green or Van Every?
/Justice League’d
As soon as I saw “by Richard Justice”, I stopped reading. I can do the rest from memory.
It is like some of the commenters on ESPN wrote that article. I just don’t understand why there is such blind hatred for the Yankees.
I don’t especially mind that the commentators seem to hate the Yankees. I don’t like that they’re so smug and so wrong so often. They demand that every player be held accountable for their jobs, yet never seem to be accountable themselves. How often have you heard a commentator on ESPN (from any sport) admit that they were wrong? They just spin it and backtrack or maintain that they’re somehow still correct.
Because it’s too easy to pick the Yankees to make the playoffs. Picking the Rays was the trendy thing to do (albeit one year late). The Red Sox haven’t gotten the media’s backlash yet. They’ll need to go deep into the playoffs a couple more times before the public gets tired of them, and then the media’s attitude will change accordingly.
Because it’s too easy to pick the Yankees to make the playoffs.
What’s better, being bold and daring, or being wise and accurate?
Having watched a lot of Tyra in my day, I can confirm that it is not the latter.
When it comes to ESPN and the like… bold and daring, of course. There’s nothing wise about the mainstream sports media. Wise doesn’t sell, bold proclamations do.
But we all know that.
That’s a fine line to walk. If you make provocative statements from time to time, sure. If all you ever do is make provocative statements and you have no journalistic bonafides left, you become The New York Post and people start ignoring you, because your paper is a piece of worthless shit.
He did have one prescient line: “Funny how perceptions change.”
The American League East race is evolving. Toronto is interesting. Tampa Bay still can contend. The Yankees could be in the mix if Phil Hughes continues to pitch well.
However, none of those teams will finish higher than the Red Sox. This is their time.
http://www.sadtrombone.com
tcwa
However, none of those teams will finish higher than the Red Sox. This is their time.
Why in God’s name would I wanna keep writing about characters whose central preoccupations are weed and dick and fart jokes? I mean, ya gotta grow, man. Don’t you ever want anything more for yourself? I know this poor hapless son of a bitch does. I look into his sorry doe eyes and I just, I see a man crying out. He’s crying out “When Lord? When the f$%# can your servant ditch this foulmouthed little chucklehead, to whom I am a constant victim of his folly, so much so that it prevents him from ever getting to kiss a girl! F$#%, WHEN, LORD, WHEN? WHEN’S GONNA BE MY TIME?
The Red Sox are built from within. Youkilis and Pedroia are franchise players who came up in the system. So are Lester, Jonathan Papelbon and Justin Masterson.
One of these things is not like the other…
franchise?
Pedroia. The other 4 are normal sized men who’s testicles have already descended.
Pedroia is bald. He’s 40; he’s a man.
Youkilis is not a franchise player (Nor is Masterson (1-6 does not cut it), the other three are certainly are (Although Cano’s 2009 is superior statistically to Pedroia’s 2009 (And is not that far behind Pedroia’s 2008).
That doesn’t make sense.
http://buildyoursoulpurpose.co.....undy-2.jpg
Well you had a correct point in there…somewhere. But your first point is wholly incorrect and your last point is irrelevant.
If you go to Baseball Reference and look up the numbers of all 5 Red Sox and Cano. It certainly does, Here are Cano’s numbers this year: 157 662 627 102 202 48 2 25 85 5 7 28 62 .322 .352 .525 .877 127 329 22 3 0 4 2 *4. Here are Pedroia’s 2008: 157 726 653 118 213 54 2 17 83 20 1 50 52 .326 .376 .493 .869 122 322 17 7 7 9 1 *4 AS,MVP- . Are Pedroia’s better? Yes they are. But not by huge numbers (Cano beats him in Homers and RBI’s).
Pedroia won the MVP in large part, because of the MAINSTREAM MEDIA’s love of the Red Sox, while Cano will be lucky if he finishes in the top 10 of MVP voting.
That’s authentic frontier gibberish right there.
That I didn’t have to Google.
I knew there was some good in you somewhere.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ml.....e-als-best
“So, Mike Lowell isn’t hitting. Big deal. This baseball season started about 20 minutes ago, so cool your jets, Mr. Panic Button. ”
This article was written on April 14. The other article, where he proclaims the Yanks are “on their way to missing the playoffs again” was written a whopping two weeks later. This guy is a joke.
Death, taxes and the Red Sox. You can count on all three, buddy boy.
Dear IRS: I won’t be sending you any money this year. I’m sure you understand.
Dear Loki: Go fuck yourself. I’m taking the money I was going to give to the IRS and going to Bank of America to get the first ever 300-year T-Bill. Enjoy the fiery pit of hell, you no-anus having asshole.
Sincerely,
tommiesmithjohncarlos
Let’s review for those arriving late: The Boston Red Sox are baseball’s best organization. There are plenty of very good organizations, including the Braves, Cubs, Rays, Yankees, Marlins and A’s. None of those organizations is smarter than the Red Sox. Actually, it’s not even that close.
They’re so smart, they let Mark Teixeira sign with the Yankees because they wouldn’t kick in that last 10M. Supergeniuses. MENSA is actually a Greek word for Boston, and Boston hadn’t even been chartered when the Greeks coined the word six thousand years ago, right before they invented democracy, incest, and the Iroc-Z, three things also enjoyed in Boston.
The Red Sox have people — principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, president/CEO Larry Lucchino — at the top of the masthead who know how to run a first-class franchise. Lucchino changed baseball forever when he decided to build an old ballpark with modern comforts. If Camden Yards doesn’t get him in the Hall of Fame, then baseball never should put another man in the Hall of Fame.
Agreed. Let’s take Jim Rice out of the Hall of Fame. You know me so well, Richard Justice, it’s like we’re a hive-mind.
Wouldn’t Astros ace Roy Oswalt look good in a Red Sox uniform? Remember, you heard it here first.)
Remembered and instantly forgotten, you hope. And no, nobody looks good in a Red Sox uniform.
They have a first-rate rotation and at least three Pawtucket kids — Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard and Clay Buchholz — who will pitch in the big leagues at some point this season.
Technically, this is correct. He never said anything about pitching well. Point, Mr. Justice.
Red Sox fans were concerned because Lowell, Ortiz and Drew all missed chunks of time last season with injuries. Yet nothing is decided with 153 games still to play. To take a step back and evaluate the Red Sox objectively is to become convinced this is still the American League’s best team.
*NYD
Red Sox fans are concerned because they care more than fans in any other city. That caring is better than the alternative.
Bart: Your half-assed underparenting was a lot more fun than your half-assed overparenting.
Homer: But I’m using my whole ass!
TCWFA
I loved that, tsjc, and I mean that sincerely, not the typical Tank “I-agree-but-I-really-disagree-and-I’ll-tell-you-why” thing.
Your confidence is infectious. People like me need it, because we still see the “glass” that is October, and have difficulty, at times, seeing it as half full.
WHOOOOO-HOOOOOO, I’M INFECTIOUS!!!!!
I’M A FREAKIN PANDEMIC!!!!! H1N1, BIZNATCHES!!!!
schedule the parade now
Start spreadin the news…..