After two years of waiting, we’ve finally seen the emergence of Phil Hughes. The 23-year-old former No. 1 Yanks prospect struggled through injury and ineffectiveness in his first two major league seasons, and even had a slow start in 2009. A move to the bullpen changed that, and Hughes has been lights out ever since. It’s like the new role was an on switch for Hughes, whose stuff markedly improved as his appearances became shorter.
Hughes has thrown 44.2 innings since moving to the bullpen in early June, striking out 44 to just 12 walks and posting a 1.41 ERA. His fastball has life unlike we’ve seen from him, which helps set up his curveball, still his best secondary pitch. In a matter of a few weeks he went from promising but underperforming starter to lights out reliever. The Yankees now control the back end of close games, and have certainly won a game or two they might have lost with a lesser guy holding down the lead.
This is the Phil Hughes that made the cover of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2007. The guy who has life on his fastball and a nasty hook to go with it. yet it does seem curious that he only rediscovered himself after a move to the bullpen. Could it be that he’s better suited to more frequent, shorter appearances, rather than longer ones every five days?
Billy Campione of Full Count Pitch thinks so. He builds a case that the bullpen has brought out the best in Hughes, and that he simply cannot replicate those numbers in the rotation. That’s not such an outlandish case if based only on Hughes’s performance so far in the majors. But considering the other information available about Hughes, it seems likely that he’ll be able to make a successful transition back to the rotation.
Campione thinks that, “Hughes’ achievements in relief have come due to a drastically different approach that he will find impossible to replicate as a starter.” He goes on to note Hughes’s average major league fastball speeds, around 91 mph in 2007 and 2008, but up to 95 mph this season while in relief. Hughes’s fastball velocity was one area of concern in the past, especially last year as he faltered in the early going. That’s because his scouting report hyped it as a bit faster. (Sorry, sub required.)
Hughes sits at 91-95 mph with his four-seam fastball and touches 96.
If he was hitting these speeds as a starter in the minors three years ago, and he’s averaging at the top-end of that range as a reliever now, chances are he can again throw that hard as a starter. No, he won’t be averaging 95 mph with his fastball as a starter, but he could easily sit 92-93, dialing it up when he needs it. It’s quite possible that the transition to the bullpen allowed Hughes the chance to find that lost velocity.
Another Campione concern: “Looking at one of Hughes’ most recent appearances out of the pen, his pitches consistently appear in the middle of the strike zone.” This has anecdotal merit — I think we can all agree that Hughes throws balls in the middle because he can blow it by guys. It also has some statistical merit, as Campione displays a strike zone plot from a recent start that shows some fastballs near the middle of the zone. Again, from the BA scouting report: “As he gains experience, his excellent control (his career K-BB ratio is 269-54) should evolve into above-average command.” Hughes is definitely throwing it by guys right now, but as he dials it down slightly in the rotation, we could see his command evolve, meaning he’d leave fewer pitches over the middle of the plate.
There’s also the argument that the bullpen allows Hughes to scrap his weakest weapon, the changeup, a pitch he might need as a starter. It’s true that Hughes’s changeup is miles behind his fastball and curve, but there’s still plenty of time for him to develop one. In the meantime, he can employ a cutter to help keep hitters off balance. In addition, it appears Hughes uses two types of curveballs: one with a tighter spin, almost a power-curve type pitch, the other a knuckle curve a la Mike Mussina. These pitches can help him get by as he develops his changeup.
Maybe Phil Hughes is best suited to a role in the bullpen, as a setup man and eventually a closer. There’s certainly no ruling that out at this point. In the same way, there’s no ruling out his ability to be a top of the rotation starter. He wasn’t the Yankees No. 1 prospect because of his perceived ability to succeed in the bullpen. Scouts at Baseball American and elsewhere raved over him because he had, and still has, the potential to be a top starter.
No matter where he ultimately ends up, the Yankees would serve themselves best by moving Hughes back to the rotation in 2010. If he succeeds there, he’ll be a boon to the franchise for years to come. If he fails, we know he can succeed in the bullpen. It’s the same deal as Joba. When you have a pitcher with frontline starter potential, you best serve your team’s interests by seeing if he can succeed as a starter. If it’s clear that he won’t reach his potential in that role, it’s back to the bullpen. But until we find out what Hughes can do as a starter, we can’t pigeonhole him in the bullpen. That decision shouldn’t come for another few years, after the Yankees have a good long look at Phil Hughes the starter.
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