Yanks face a few postseason decisions
ByThere aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?
In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.
Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:
Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.
Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.
That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.
Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:
Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIPAndy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?
There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.
Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.
If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
I also want them to choose the short series
washburn is garbage, and verlander may not even be able to start game 1 with the way this division thing is going, and verlander was not good in 2006 postseason.
i think he is 1-2 with a 5.4something ERA.
However this aint 2006, so i would prefer him to have to pitch 13 innings this sunday, then have to rest until game 2 so the yanks can have their shots at edwin jackson, who has never made a postseason start in his life.
Jarrod washburn is absolutely terrible (no shock there…), and the yanks pounded porcello for 5 or 6 runs if i remember back in the early part of the season. I like the chances more with the short series.
If its the twins, i choose the long series because none of their pitchers scare me and you have more bullpen depth
sorry for belaboring the washburn point there, didn’t realize i said it twice
Just think, all the Yanks had to do was give up Austin Jackson and Washburn could have jellified the Yankees staff. Dare I say, Brian Cashman is the Suckser.
/sux0r’d
Honestly, I’m good with whatever they pick. They are the better team, and they should win regardless of how the pitching comes out. That being said, I have a good feeling about AJ for the playoffs- he seems to be getting in a groove at just the right time. I would go with him twice in the longer series.
+34
Hughes can be both Pettitte and Rivera, LOL!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....rofilepage
While it doesn’t matter to me which series they pick, the Yankees are better off picking a series that plays to their strengths as to the opponents’ weakness.
Oh, and thanks for the linkage =D
Aren’t strengths relative. The yankees have a fourth starter that’s better than most 4th starters, but not all. They also have an ace that’s effective on 3 days rest (for the most part). Whether you choose to line up your #1 twice because he’s better than an opponent’s ace or you pitch your #4 for the same reason, it’s about maximizing your strengths against a particular opponent’s weakness.
I don’t think this is a terribly big decision–Burnett seems to be finding his rhythm, and Pettitte has been fantastic in the second half, home or road
I think the home/road split was just an adjustment period to the new stadium–I seem to recall him saying back in April that he was afraid to pitch like he normally did for fear of the ball carrying out and it took him some time to get over that. He has been rock solid in the second half, home or away
It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames.
/MontyBurns’d
Shave those sideburns, Mattingly!
But I hit 9 homeruns today!
The other issue is that if the Yankees face the Tigers and their predominately right handed hitters it would be more likely that Marte doesn’t make the roster.
Where as if it the Twins, it might be better to have the second lefty out of the pen.
I think he takes Marte no matter what. Maybe just for Granderson and Huff.
Agreed.
Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Braves… doesn’t matter.
Coke and Marte are on the playoff roster for every round, every opponent. Two lefties in the pen = the security and ability to matchup as much as we want.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
+62 to all of this.
the long series to me is more about the bullpen than it is about the rotation. if they take the long series in game 1 conceivably you could go to hughes and mo for the last 9 outs since there is an off day and the same after game 2.
Whatever they do, I hope it involves keeping Molina on the bench.
How are the Twins’ and Tigers’ bullpens?
Seems to me that a shorter series puts more pressure on there, so if we have greater depth/quality that would be an argument for the short series.
http://www.google.com
I prefer http://lmgtfy.com/
I like forcing the lazy and the ignorant to type the words into Google themselves.
Nice friendly people here at RAB.
Eh, we have our moments.
I once rescued a heavyset woman and her 8 cats from a burning building.
This sounds like a JMK story…
Or a scene from Mr. Deeds?
It’s Lord of the Flies on in this bitch. Kill or be killed, research or be rese… killed.
Damn, *up in this
Since there’s such a bunch of fucking baseball geniuses around here I figured that no amount of research I could do would match the insights available from the commenters.
You don’t want to answer the question, don’t answer it. Abuse doesn’t accomplish anything.
Abuse doesn’t accomplish anything.
Shame works pretty well, though.
That’s why I’m trying to make you ashamed of acting like a jerk.
You can point out sources of information without all the “lazy and ignorant” crap. Or you can not respond at all.
Who’s a jerk, the person who wants someone else to do his research for him, or the person who says “No, I won’t do your research for you.”
I don’t object to you saying, “You can look it up.” It’s a fair response, though there’s no reason to word it rudely. I also don’t object to anyone just not answering.
I object to being called lazy and ignorant.
I might add that the strength/depth of a bullpen is to some degree a matter of opinion, so the question is a combination of a request for information and a request for opinions. Am I supposed to Google your opinion?
I object to being called lazy and ignorant.
Technically, I didn’t call you lazy or ignorant. I said that to the artist formerly known as (sic), in having a separate discussion as to whether to use http://www.google.com or http://www.lmgtfy.com as the most appropriate response to your question. I said that I prefer the former to the latter because I like forcing the lazy and the ignorant to type the words into Google themselves. I never specifically said YOU were lazy or ignorant. You read that separate meaning into my comment to you, based on a tangential conversation.
I might add that the strength/depth of a bullpen is to some degree a matter of opinion, so the question is a combination of a request for information and a request for opinions. Am I supposed to Google your opinion?
No, you can ask for that. But that’s not what you asked for.
You weren’t asking for our opinions. You were asking for basic information. There’s a difference between “How are the Twins’ and Tigers’ bullpens?” and “I think the Tigers and Twins bullpens are strong/weak, do you agree or disagree?”
Besides, I wasn’t asking you to “do research” for me. To the extent I was asking for information it was for information that I thought people had. There’s a difference between asking someone for something I think they know and asking them to go to the library and look it up for me.
Technically, I didn’t call you lazy or ignorant.
Wow, that’s a pathetic excuse. You described a class of people, in which I was clearly included, as lazy and ignorant. You really think you didn’t call me lazy and ignorant? Give me a break.
You weren’t asking for our opinions. You were asking for basic information.
I was asking for a combination of fact and opinion. “How are the…” is not a simple request for a fact. And in any case it hardly asks you to do any more than state your opinion along with any facts you happen to feel; like citing. You’re free to ignore the request, and you are not being asked to do anything but write a response if you feel like it.
The twins have a real closer, the tigers do not.
That’s all you need to know.
Comparison of the three best relievers of the two teams. Notice how Rodney isn’t on it? How Fernando Rodney has a 97% save conversion rate is nothing short of a miracle.
Tigers bullpen:
Brandon Lyon 75.1 IP 153 ERA+ 1.102 WHIP
Fu-Te Ni 30.0 IP 169 ERA+ 1.033 WHIP
Bobby Seay 48.2 IP 117 ERA+ 1.233 WHIP
Twins bullpen:
Joe Nathan 64.0 IP 185 ERA+ 0.953 WHIP
Jose Mijares 61.0 IP 201 ERA+ 1.098 WHIP
Matt Guerrier 73.1 IP 178 ERA+ 0.955 WHIP
Joba has also dominated the Tigers this season. Joba is 2-0, with a 1.32 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season, striking out 14 in 13.2 innings.
that is also like a Sox fan saying they dominated the yanks since one was in April and one in July, so they are different and so is he at this point. it makes one hopeful, but not like it is some sure thing because of the success months ago.
Andy Pettitte, 2009 FIP: 4.04 (which is almost exactly his ERA). He’s clearly been better in the second half. As for home/away, I’d say the split persists (look at the WHIPs, not ERAs), but even so he’s better than…
AJ Burnett, 2009 FIP: 4.31.
So yeah, I think Pettitte in game 2.
the trouble is the sample size
since the break, Pettitte has thrown only 38.2 innings at home and 44 on the road. The lower road WHIP is attributed to the near-perfecto in Baltimore, where Pettitte gave up just two baserunners in 8 innings
The only reason the Yankees should choose the short series is if, for some reason, Verlander can’t go Game 1. Then the Yankees would only face him once, and that would be the biggest advantage of all.
Otherwise, the three-game series plays to the Yankees’ strengths more than it does the Tigers’. The Yankees have a much, much better back end of the bullpen, and a day off after each of the first two games would enable them to maximize that advantage. Girardi unfortunately has stated that neither Hughes nor Rivera will be going 2 innings at a time, but the potential for those guys to pitch 3 innings total in each of the first three games is huge.
Andy in Game 2 for one important but totally irrelevant reason:
It’s tradition.
Andy and Game 2 go together like peas and carrots.
They should resign Clemens for Game 1 and Mussina for Game 3.
Hmm… no.
/sarcasm
(checks sarcasmometer)
Huh… batteries are dead.
(takes 4 AA batteries out of gaydar)
I thought we were going to win it all after this Game 2 performance.
http://www.baseball-reference......0190.shtml
or the division series in 07
fucking midges
There’s no way Girardi goes with the shorter ALDS, when considering the organization’s reluctance to over-use Hughes. Girardi said as much during the Joe Girardi Show. Having the extra off day ensures that the opponent is only getting 21 outs to the Yankees 27.
yea, but if the Tigers win a one-game playoff next Tuesday and Verlander isn’t available until Game 3…
please stop this non sense about Molina starting a playoff game….please. It is beyond stupid.
Who is “Mick Vick”?
oops. Fixed.
Mick O’Vick
FTFY
He’s Black-Irish.
McChicken Nuggets??
Dangerous, but I like it.
+1.
Jose Molina’s name is not once mentioned in this post. Thank you for your off-topic two cents.
You would think they would choose the short series and only have to see Verlander once. But that would entail them having some kind of faith in Joba. if they choose the long series it shows they have little at this point. Because Joba vs Bonine/Robertson in Game 4 is a joke.
They see Verlander twice anyway.
Aren’t this year’s home-road splits too small a sample size to lean on?
AJ is on a roll, baby. He’s got game 2 on lock.
Just call him butter!
/StuScott’d
AJ is as cool as the other side of the pillow.
SWEET SASSY MOLASSY!
Is he on a bagel because he’s a lox.
amen brotha.
Pettitte in the cavernous Comerica park sounds good to me.
I think they have to start Molina when Burnett pitches. Pettitte and Burnett have been pitching very similarly. Let him start 2 and 5. Molina would only start 1 game in the 5 game series then.
Molina isn’t really a factor in this discussion at all.
They call him the Windex Man cause he’s always cleaning the glass.
When looking at AJ’s home/road splits, one interesting exercise is to simply remove Fenway Park (where he was a disaster) from his road stats…
This leaves him with comparable ERAs both at home and road (non-Fenway division), with the road split even favorable:
Home: 3.51 ERA
Non-Fenway Road: 3.31
20 of his 51 earned runs on the road came at Fenway in just 3 starts! Just 31 runs in the other 13 road starts.
Clearly, if facing the Red Sox in the ALCS, can’t trot AJ out there at Fenway when you can avoid it (start him games 2 and 6)… but maybe not such a big deal in any other series.
I think it makes sense for Pettitte on game 3 and taking the short series. Whether they are even 1-1 or down 2-0 I’d much rather have Pettitte start a road playoff game, rather than AJ start his first ever in that situation. Mentally I would think the game 2 is much more tolerable for someone who has never been in the situation before.
As for the long series, I think its a loser mentality. Your planning on losing a game and therefore want to have CC and potentially Burnett start two games. The only way the long series becomes an advantageous is if they lose game 1. I would think its much better to get that extra day in between.
Joe – you beat around the bush a little bit.
Regardless of the series, do you like Pettitte in game 2 and 5?
Reason I beat around the bush: I want Burnett in game 2 and Pettitte in a game 5.
Game 1 – CC – Win
Game 2 – AJ – Win (Jose Molina hits a HR)
Game 3 – AP – Win
Problem solved.
Impossible!
Long series means more Hughes and Mo. I’m a sabermagician, so here’s an equation:
9 inning game – (Hughes + Mo) = 6 inning game
i keep running through all the scenarios in my head and they all keep ending up w/ the yankees winning 11 straight anyway, so i’m not really sure why we’re discussing this
pete, i like the way you think, i hope your right, but i think its possible we lose 1 game
im gonna say we go 11-1
we sweep detroit
the 1 lose comes against the angels in game 4
then we sweep the cardinals
then CANYON OF FUCKIN HEROES
Jose Molina should be nowhere near anyone’s postseason lineup.
He has become an embarrassment at the plate, posting a 51 and 48 OPS+ in the last two years.
I love every aspect of how this team is playing and configured headed into the postseason, but Molina cannot be in a postseason lineup.
His much ballyhooed Catcher ERA is only .10 better than Cervelli. With is bat, arm, and speed Cervelli is clearly the better option at this point.
Did anyone see him go 1st to 3rd on a single last night? Is there a snowball’s chance in hell Molina ever goes 1st to 3rd the rest of his career?
DONT START MOLINA.
My apologies to Joe, but there is one statement in his article above that I can’t let pass. Joe says:
“If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.”
There is a long line of sports commentators making the same completely illogical argument. These “experts” say that in a baseball series, when facing elimination, a team must always use its best starting pitcher – even if he has to throw on short rest.
In many cases that’s just … well, irrational.
If the Yankees get to Game 4 of the ALDS down 2-1, why should they start Sabathia on short rest in Game 4? To win Game 4? That makes no sense. The ultimate goal is to win the ALDS, which means the team has to win Game 5, too. They should therefore adopt a strategy which maximizes the likelihood that they will win BOTH games. A strategy that increases their chance to win Game 4 by, say, 30%, but reduces their chance to win Game 5 by maybe 40%, is a losing strategy.
I’ve discussed this point with some pretty intelligent people who just can’t see the point. Joe’s a pretty smart guy, of that I’m sure, but RAB – with its regard for statistics and predictive formulas – shouldn’t peddle the same flawed logic that we can get from the likes of John Kruk.
+1