ALDS Notes: A KLaw preview, Mitre and the umpires
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As the Yankees await their Division Series opponent, the playoff previews are in full swing. Most of them are less-than-impressive, but over at the Worldwide Leader, friend-of-RAB Keith Law delivers the goods. Since his is an Insider-only piece, I’ll bullet-point it.
Yankee Strengths
- The Yankees’ offense is very good.
- CC Sabathia is very good.
- Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes and the rest of the bullpen are very good.
- With all of their walk-off wins, the Yanks’ MAORP was 3582.7. A pat on the back to the first non-Insider subscriber to figure out just what that stands for.
Yankee Weaknesses
- A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte can be inconsistent, and we don’t know what to expect out of Joba Chamberlain.
- The defense remains suspect. While the team is fairly strong up the middle and even Derek Jeter has increased his range, the corner outfielders remain problematic, and Jorge Posada‘s defense has generated countless comments among Yankee fans of late. If the team though can bludgeon their opposition, the defense won’t matter as much.
- Will Joe Girardi make a costly mistake? From showing too much faith in Brian Bruney to calling for too many bunts, we’ve seen Girardi over-strategize on numerous occasions this season. I know many fans and analysts are expecting Girardi’s managerial decisions to cost the Yanks a game at some point this October, and Law believes it will come from his trust in Bruney or Phil Coke.
Law, as you can see, offers up a compelling analysis of both the Yanks’ weaknesses and, while I gave them short shrift, their strengths. This team could be very, very good indeed come October and has the potential to run through the playoffs. As we’ve learned in the past, though, we can’t count our World Series chickens before they hatch.
There is but one spot where I disagreed with Law’s take. In discussing Joba Chamberlain and the Yanks’ fourth starter, Law writes, “[Joba] might not even make the postseason roster, in which case, the fourth starter could be Sergio Mitre (bad) or Alfredo Aceves (better, but maybe not what you’d expect of a $200 million team).”
Besides the fact that I’m more likely to pitch in the ALDS than Sergio Mitre is, the Yanks’ right-hander is combating bicep tendinitis. If his pitching hadn’t knocked him out of playoff consideration, this injury definitely does. As for Aceves, the Yanks don’t have the time to stretch him out into a starter, and his value currently lies in the bullpen. Chad Gaudin is currently one of two pitchers under consideration for the fourth spot, and if the Yanks don’t trust Gaudin — Law rightly notes his struggles against lefties — Joba will be the fourth starter for better or worse.
* * *
Finally, in other Division Series news, the Yanks have umpires before they have an opponent. Noah Coslov tweeted the umpires for the ALDS earlier today, and manning the Yankee game will be Tim Tschida as crew chief, Chuck Meriwether, Mark Wegner, Paul Emmel, Jim Joyce and Phil Cuzzi. As expected, Marty Foster is stuck at home this October, and Joe West along with CB Bucknor are both working the Angels/Red Sox series.
Yankee fans may remember Jim Joyce as the umpire in the middle of last month’s Jorge Posada/Jesse Carlson tiff. He is, however, a fair umpire, and as crews go, this is a decent one.
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The Mason Williams Watch
I would go with Gaudin in the ALCS game 4 for probably 4 innings, Ace for 2 and then turn it over to K-Rob and crew.
Phil Cuzzi is terrible. In the middle of controversy and inept. FIRE HIM. But of course we all know Bud Selig has the backbone of a jellyfish.
He doesn’t have to tag you dumby!!!
/Marty Foster’d
Cuzzi sucks.
/The City of Toronto
//St. Louis Cardinals
///Ozzie Guillen
I lol’d @ KLaw with the MAORP. Good stuff
Yeah! 60 years RePresent! Wait, we’re not celebrating communism, are we?
I don’t think it stands for Mao over Replacement Player.
Your wisdom is breaking the concentration of my sweatshop laborers. Please think quieter thoughts.
Mystique & Aura Over Replacement Player
(I don’t have insider)
::pats Marcus on the back::
Great job Marcus.
I’d just like to thank the two nightclub dancers that made it all possible.
Fun tidbit: My white-trash stripper cousin named her two daughters Tifanee and Destinee. Yes, that’s how it’s spelled.
..and your TMIORP average is a solid 1245.88.
They live in Florida (near you, in fact). Proof that Darwin got it wrong? Florida.
That doesn’t surprise me at all.
is that all ‘sabremetricky’ for grit?
Speaking of grit, Pedroia’s grit beard is moving so far down his neck it may form one connective beard with his chest.
little boys don’t have chest hair.
Hey now, don’t bring Pedroia’s brother into this.
Or apparently hair on their heads, either.
As I have said many times, Girardi has done a very good job with the bullpen on a broad macro level. What people see as his irrational faith in Bruney was an attempt to see where Brian can be trusted, same with Coke. The idea that he will let Coke pitch to righties when he spent half the season having Coke split innings with Hughes and then Robertson seems a bit silly. Same with Bruney- there is a good chance that he does not make the roster, so I really doubt Joe would use him in a big spot. Honestly, we can post all the stats we want about how efficiently Girardi has managed the bullpen (I believe Joe tackled it last week), yet we still return to this same meme that Joe’s managing will hurt them in October.
+27
Girardi’s bullpen management has been top-notch. Joe realized the upside of having Bruney return to his early season form. The only way to facilitate that is to put him out there and try to make it happen. The division was in the bag by the time Bruney saw regular action anyway.
When does the team announce which length series they choose? Or whether the first game will be Wednesday or Thursday?
They have until one hour after tomorrow evening’s Tigers/Twins game ends.
They have until an hour after the Twins-Tigers game.
If the Yankees defense is suspect, then what does that mean for the rest of the AL contenders?
The Yankees have the best defensive efficiency of any of the potential playoff teams in the AL. They’re 3rd in UZR (behind LAA and DET, ahead of MIN and BOS), but I trust defensive efficiency better as a measure of defense. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, the AL playoff team with the best defensive efficiency has won the pennant for the last 5 years.
I think the defense is more than the sum of its parts, which contributes to it being suspect; I don’t think any individual player is particularly outstanding, they all seem to hover around average.
I disagree, I think a defense is the sum of its parts.
You can come up with all the numbers you want but Swisher can still be an adventure out in right. Of course he makes up for it by seeing about 93 pitches a game (rough estimate) but I’m just sayin.
Late to post, but KLaw clearly doesn’t watch the Yanks much, with his comment about Mirte or Aceves instead of Guadin, as well saying Gardner is the starting center fielder. Doesn’t mean his evaluation of individual players is off, but at least know who is in the rotation and who is in the starting lineup Keith…