Archive for October, 2009
Laird’s perfect day helps Surprise win again
Posted by: | CommentsAzFL Surprise (12-5 win over Mesa)
Brandon Laird: 5 for 5, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI – amazingly, he was only the second best Surprise hitter today … Moose tacos drove in seven
Colin Curtis: 1 for 5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI – threw a runner out at second from RF
Still no Dominican Winter League or Puerto Rican League rosters. The DWL starts tomorrow, and I don’t know what they’re waiting for.
NLCS Game One: Phillies @ Dodgers
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Two full days after the Phillies made a remarkable comeback against Huston Street and the Rockies in Game Four of the National League Division Series, the Championship is finally ready to get underway. It’s not as bad as the brutal four day layoff the Yankees and Angels have to endure, but it’s bad enough.
In case you forgot, this year’s NLCS is a rematch of last year’s NLCS, except the Dodgers have home field advantage this year, not the Phillies. Cole Hamels will start the series off for the Phightin’s, the same way he did last year. Los Angeles will counter with the Clayton Kershaw, who graduated high school just three years ago. Since their lineup is loaded with lefty power hitters, the Phillies might have their hands full with young southpaw, who held lefties to a .173-.237-.252 batting line this year.
TBS is carrying the game (and the entire series), with first pitch scheduled for 8:07pm ET. Here’s the lineups:
Philadelphia
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Shane Victorino, CF
Chase Utley, 2B
Ryan Howard, 1B
Jayson Werth, RF
Raul Ibanez, LF
Pedro Feliz, 3B
Carlos Ruiz, C
Cole Hamels, SP (10-11, 4.32 regular season)
Los Angeles
Rafael Furcal, SS
Matt Kemp, CF
Andre Ethier, RF
Manny Ramirez, LF
James Loney, 1B
Casey Blake, 3B
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Clayton Kershaw, SP (8-8, 2.79 regular season)
Use this thread to chat about the game, or whatever else you please. Just make sure you follow the guidelines and be cool to each other.
Yanks could bolster coaching, scouting with Peterson and Towers
Posted by: | CommentsWhat better way to take your mind off the rain than with some proposed additions to the Yankees coaching and scouting staff?
After Kevin Towers lost his job earlier this month, Mike wondered whether he’d be a good addition for the Yankees. With his scouting acumen, it certainly couldn’t hurt. Earlier this week, Buster Olney noted that the Yankees might be a good fit for Towers:
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has long been friends with Kevin Towers, who was recently released from his duties as GM of the Padres, and given that relationship, there would appear to be excellent odds that Towers will land with the Yankees as a special assistant sometime in the months ahead. Towers could serve as an evaluator for Cashman, taking on responsibilities like looking for pitching — which is considered to be Towers’ specialty — or scouting minor leaguers, or helping to prepare the Yankees as they consider options before the trade deadline.
After the Padres fired him, Towers said that he’s not looking for an office gig.
“I know I don’t want to be in an office if I’m not a general manager. And I’m not looking for a job where I feel the GM might be in jeopardy, that’s not me.
“I want to be with a team where I know and trust the people I’m working with and feel I can make a contribution. I’d be happy to scout and to be the eyes and ears for a GM if that’s what is needed. I just want to be in a position where I can help a team compete,” added Towers.
That would seem to make him an ideal candidate for the Yankees. With the team running deep into the postseason, it appears Brian Cashman’s job is not in jeopardy. Towers would be free to scout, evaluate, and contribute. That’s the way he wants it, and it appears that opportunity could exist with the Yankees.
In what seems like a throwaway line in his latest column, Jon Heyman connects Rick Peterson to the Yankees. “Peterson, a New Jersey resident, also might have a chance to become a pitching coordinator for the Yankees.” This would be stupendous, especially if he’d be working with the minor league pitchers.
It might seem like this would be stepping on Nardi Contreras’s toes, but that doesn’t have to be the case. Peterson, an expert in biomechanics, could evaluate in a different way than Contreras. Plus, you can never have enough information on pitchers. For more on Peterson, check out his video breaking down the Yankees pitching, and his Pitching Perspectives archive at Full Count Pitch.
The Yankees might not add major free agents this off-season, but they’d do well to look into Peterson and Towers to boost their behind the scenes staffs. Sometimes those moves can be just as important as the player personnel ones.
Linkage: Jeter, Swisher, Kennedy, Walk-offs
Posted by: | CommentsJust a little more than four hours until real life baseball. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait. Here’s some random links to hold you over…
- Edgar Sandoval and Samuel Goldsmith at The Daily News have a story about 16-month old Jeter Villacis, who received a lifesaving heart transplant during Game 2 of the ALDS after six weeks of waiting. You get three guesses who the kid’s named after, but I think you’ll only need one.
- Ben wanted to put together a post comparing Nick Swisher‘s 2009 season to Bobby Abreu’s, but Jay at Fack Youk beat him to it. The results may surprise you, despite talk of Abreu’s rumored resurgence.
- Greg Fertel at Pending Pinstripes, my old stomping grounds, used PitchFX to compare 2008 Ian Kennedy to 2009 Ian Kennedy. I do wonder if the difference in release points could be caused by different PFX cameras in different stadiums, but the other differences are pretty drastic.
- Here’s video of all 15 walk-offs this season in under 7 minutes. It’s awesome. Thanks to Peter for the tip.
- Here’s your minor league offensive leaderboard, courtesy of Baseball America. Shelley Duncan’s 30 homers were fifth most in all of minor league baseball last year, while Melky Mesa’s 168 strikeouts were 8th most. He’s a hitter, so that’s bad.
- And finally, mgl at Inside The Book took a look at why manager’s make bad decisions, while Jonah Lehrer at ScienceBlogs did something similar with football coaches. Nerd math, finally applied to football. John Madden is rolling over in his bus.
A problem for a rainy day
Posted by: | CommentsIn case you haven’t noticed, it’s raining in New York, and with a Nor’easter settling in over the area, this rain may not stop for a few days. With first game of the ALCS scheduled for tomorrow night amidst a 60 percent chance of rain, the game very well could be rained out, the Yanks’ best laid plans thrown into disarray.
For the sake of this discussion, let’s take a look at the ALCS schedule and two potential alternatives if Game 1 were to be rained out.
| Date | Schedule | Alternate | Alternate 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 16 | Game 1 | Rain Out | Rain Out |
| Oct. 17 | Game 2 | Game 1 | Game 1 |
| Oct. 18 | Off Day | Game 2 | Game 2 |
| Oct. 19 | Game 3 | Game 3 | Off Day |
| Oct. 20 | Game 4 | Game 4 | Game 3 |
| Oct. 21 | Off Day | Off Day | Game 4 |
| Oct. 22 | Game 5 | Game 5 | Game 5 |
| Oct. 23 | Off Day | Off Day | Off Day |
| Oct. 24 | Game 6 | Game 6 | Game 6 |
| Oct. 25 | Game 7 | Game 7 | Game 7 |
In my opinion, Major League Baseball will have two choices if the Yanks and Angels can’t fit in Game 1 on Friday. The teams would play Game 1 on Saturday and Game 2 on Sunday, the currently-scheduled travel day. Then, without skipping a day and with a cross-country flight involved, the Angels and Yanks would meet in Anaheim on Monday afternoon. Since the game is schedule for a 4:13 start on Monday, travel could be tight.
My preferred alternate is in the right column of that table. Instead of just pushing back one game, the schedule would be rearranged to the familiar 2-3-2 ALCS format we used to enjoy prior to last year’s TV accommodations. The Yanks and Angels would play two in the Bronx on Saturday and Sunday, three in Los Angeles from Tuesday-Thursday and then two more in the Bronx the following weekend. No unnecessarily harried travel days would be involved.
The bigger problem from the Yanks’ perspective is the havoc rain or the threat of it wreaks on their pitching plans. Right now, the ALCS is set up to benefit the Yanks. Although Joe Girardi has yet to announce it, the team could very well go with a three-man rotation, and only once — CC Sabathia in Game 4 — would their starter go on short rest. Meanwhile, this extra off-day would allow the Yanks to use their ace in a potential Game 7.
Any rain-out throws that plan out of the window. Since both alternative schedules feature a compression of sorts, the Yanks would have to make a choice. Either Sabathia would pitch both Games 4 and 7 on short rest or the team would have to use four starters. Thus, under the latter scenario, Chad Gaudin would probably pitch in Game 4, Sabathia on full rest in Game 5, Burnett in Game 6 and Andy Pettitte — if the ALDS rotation holds — in Game 7. I have no problem with Pettitte taking the mound at home for Game 7, but I’d rather see CC.
Right now, we don’t know what MLB will choose to do. They have TV obligations to uphold, and a cross-country trip to schedule. A rain-out would be messy, then, on many fronts.
In the end, rain matters, and the Yankees say they have a contingency plan. Hopefully, unlike in 2004 when rain altered the Yanks’ ability to go with their preferred pitchers during the latter half of the ALCS, the team can overcome a postponement. They certainly have the depth to do so.
Postscript: The rain also has a confusing impact on the tickets fans currently hold. As Brian Costa notes, a rain-out technically pushes back both games. If Friday’s game is canceled, tickets for Home Game 1 would be honored on Saturday, and tickets for Home Game 2 would be honored on Sunday. I’d hate to be the security guards turning away confused fans for Saturday’s game.
Yanks add Guzman to ALCS roster
Posted by: | CommentsChad Jennings has the news: Fast Freddy Guzman has been added to the Championship Series roster in place of Eric Hinske. Hinske has gotten just 15 plate appearances in the last month, and most of those came as the Yanks were resting players down the stretch. Guzman at least gives the Yankees another pinch running threat. I assume Hinske will head to Tampa to stay sharp, because his bat could be extremely valuable off the bench if the Yanks make it to the World Series.
In case you’re wondering, Hinske was not only left off Tampa’s ALCS roster last year, he was also left off their World Series roster. He wasn’t added to the WS roster until prior to Game Four, when Cliff Floyd hurt his shoulder.
ALCS Preview: The Bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsWith plenty of time between the end of play Sunday and the start of the ALCS on Friday evening, we’ve been taking our time previewing the series. We’ve already looked at the infielders, the starters, and the managers, so now we’ll hit the relief corps.
The Yankees bullpen was rock solid last year, so fans expected more of the same this year since the cast of characters was largely unchanged. Things didn’t go as planned in April, and soon guys like Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, and Jon Albaladejo were jettisoned in favor of younger players, who proved to be up to the task. The only two relievers to stay on the team’s active roster wire-to-wire were Mariano Rivera and Phil Coke. The rest of the group came aboard around May.
As a whole, the Yankees bullpen thoroughly outperformed their haloed counterparts. Let’s break it down…
| Angels | Yankees | |
| ERA | 4.45 | 4.28 |
| FIP | 4.45 | 4.32 |
| WHIP | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| K/9 | 6.61 | 7.82 |
| BB/9 | 3.26 | 3.56 |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| AVG | .271 | .253 |
| GB/FB | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| WAR | +16.6 | +18.7 |
The Yankees have the Angels beat, or at least tied, in every category but walks per nine innings, and even there the difference is just one free pass every 30 innings. That doesn’t even take into consideration the division each team plays in. It’s safe to say the Yanks come into the series with a superior bullpen, though let’s break it down on an even deeper level anyway.
The Angels carried just ten pitchers on their ALDS roster, four of them starters. That leaves just six relievers, whereas the Yankees rolled with eight in the Division Series (eleven pitchers total, three starters). That makes for a tricky comparison, but we’ll manage.
Closer: Mariano Rivera vs. Brian Fuentes
Well, there’s not much debate here, so I’ll keep it short. Mo again defied age this year, posting a phenomenal 72-12 K/BB ratio in 66.1 IP. Fuentes got the job done for the Angels, but he allowed 78 baserunners in just 55 IP and was rather shaky all season. Mike Scioscia can say he has confidence in his closer all he wants, but the fact of the matter is that no one in Yankee Universe will feel the good guys are out of it until that 27th out is recorded.
High-Leverage Guys: Joba Chamberlain & Phil Hughes vs. Jason Bulger & Kevin Jepsen
The Angels relief core suffered a huge blow in late May when their ultrareliable and long-time setup man Scot Shields went down for the season with a knee injury. Jose Arredondo got the first shot at replacing Shields, but faltered and wound up back in Triple-A before being left off the playoff roster. Not only did Plan A get hurt, but Plan B failed as well.
Luckily for Scioscia, Bulger stepped up his game and was fantastic pretty much all season, posting a 1.99 ERA and a .172 AVG against while striking out 52 in 54.1 IP from May 2nd to Sept. 23rd (we won’t count four subpar outings to end the season against him). The problem is that he walks more guys than you’d like a late inning reliever to, 30 in 64.1 IP this year. Baseball America ranked Jepsen the team’s 6th best prospect coming into the season, and even though he struggled in the first half, he finished the year strong: .245-.302-.274 against after August 8th, with a 2.24 FIP. Both Bulger and Jepsen can bring it, dialing it up to the mid-90′s, and they’ve been effective late game options for the Angels down the stretch.
The Yankees have their own pair of hard throwing setup men now that Joba Chamberlain has joined Phil Hughes in the bullpen for the playoffs. Hughes was simply masterful as a reliever this season, putting up a 1.93 FIP and a .456 OPS against in over 50 IP (51.1, to be exact). Joba has looked good in a tiny sample after going back into the bullpen for the playoffs, and while it’s unreasonable to expect him to repeat his 2007-2008 bullpen performance, all he needs to do is throw strikes with his stuff to be effective. Easier said than done, of course.
Edge goes to the Yankees because of Hughes’ utter dominance in baseball’s toughest division, however no one should sleep on Bulger and Jepsen, they could open some eyes this series.
Lefty: Phil Coke vs. Darren Oliver
Darren Oliver, the ageless wonder, enjoyed a fantastic season at age 38, allowing just 83 baserunners in 73 IP against 65 strikeouts. He pitched in all three ALDS games against Boston, allowing just one hit in 2.1 IP. Mike Scioscia uses him as more than just a lefty specialist, often asking Oliver to pitch full innings late in close games. Oddly enough, he has a reverse platoon split, so the Angels don’t have an obvious weapon against lefty batters in the bullpen. Maybe the Yanks can loan them Damaso Marte for the series.
Phil Coke, on the other hand, should be used strictly as a lefty specialist this series, and in fact his sole purpose in the ALCS will be to get Bobby Abreu out. Coke held lefties to a .195-.218-.366 batting line this year, and even though he worked full innings – facing both lefties and righties – at times this year, the Yanks have plenty of other options that will relegate Coke to LOOGY status this series. It tough to give anyone edge here because we’re talking about two different pitchers in two different roles, but I guess if I had to pick, I’d go with Oliver because he’s just flat out been better this year.
Long Man: Chad Gaudin vs. Matt Palmer
Palmer, a career minor league journeyman that finally stuck at age 30, made a few starts early in the season for the Halos (you may remember this game), but moved to the bullpen because a) he sucked (5.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and b) because some of the Angels’ regular starters got healthy. Like Gaudin, who’s been better than anyone could have expected since being acquired from the Padres, Palmer figures to only appear in blowouts or as the last reliever out of the pen in extra inning games.
Both pitchers excel against righties but struggle against lefties, however I’m giving the Yankees get the edge simply because Gaudin strikes out way more guys (8.5 K/9 vs. 5.1). Strikeouts are better than ground outs, especially in the playoffs.
Misc. Relievers: Ervin Santana vs. David Robertson, Al Aceves, Brian Bruney/Damaso Marte
Herein lies a considerable difference between the two bullpens. Beyond the five guys we talked about above, the only other reliever in the Angels bullpen is starter turned reliever for the postseason Ervin Santana (ZOMG why won’t they just pick a role for him already?!?1?). Santana battled an elbow injury early in the season, and was just so-so when he was on the mound. He put 204 runners on base in just 139.2 IP, served up one homer every six innings, and his 47 walks tied his total from 2008, when he threw almost 80 more innings. Santana was better in the final two months of the season (3.95 FIP) against mostly crap competition, but he didn’t even warm up in the ALDS. He appears to be Mike Scioscia’s Plan D, at best.
The Yankees, on the other hand, went with quantity and quality to fill out the rest of their bullpen. Al Aceves was a godsend in May, pitching in every role imaginable. His 1.01 WHIP was second best in the league among pitchers with at least 80 IP, behind only Andrew Bailey of the A’s. David Robertson is a strikeout fiend, with 314 K’s in 226.2 career innings, majors and minors. We’re still not sure whether Marte will remain with the club in the ALCS, or if he’ll be replaced by Bruney because of matchups, but either guy figures to be one of the last options outs of Girardi’s pen. Aceves alone makes this a win for the Yanks, but having Robertson available too is just showing off.
As we saw in the stats above, the Yanks have a clear advantage over the Angels when it comes to the bullpen. The Fightin’ Scioscia’s will rely heavily on Jepsen, Bulger, and Oliver in the middle innings, while Palmer and Santana are break glass in case of emergency guys only. The Yankees have depth, with Joba and Hughes forming a powerful bridge in the late innings. At the very least, Coke has the tools necessary to neutralize Abreu, while Aceves and Robertson are looming should trouble arise at any point before the 7th inning.
The Angels starters completed six innings in nine of the ten games they played the Yankees this year, and they have to hope their starters continue to work deep into the games to minimize the bullpen face time. Otherwise, it’ll just be open season for the Bombers.
Hello, Angels. We’ve met before, haven’t we?
Posted by: | CommentsTomorrow night, there will be baseball. Tomorrow night, the Yankees and the Angels will take the field, and at 7:57 p.m., CC Sabathia will throw the first pitch to Chone Figgins. As Thursday dawns, though, we still wait for that first ALCS in the Bronx in five years.
When last the Yankees reached the ALCS, they played a Red Sox team that had just dispatched the Angels in three straight games. This year, the Angels returned the favor, and the Yanks play a team they have beaten in three of their last four contests instead of eight of nine. Now, all that stands between the Yanks and the Fall Classic is a well-rounded ballclub from Orange County.
To prepare for the Angels, let’s look back at how these two teams fared in games against each other. On the season, the Angels outscored the Yanks 65-55, but the two clubs split 10 contests. The Yanks won the first two and last two but didn’t do too well in the middle.
April 30, 2009: Yankees 7, Angels 4 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Phil Coke
LP: Justin Speier
SV: Mariano Rivera
HR: Mike Napoli, Johnny Damon
In the first match-up of the year between these two teams, A.J. Burnett faced off against Anthony Ortega, but neither starter would factor into the decision. Burnett worked his way through seven decent innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk, and the Yanks tagged the forgettable Ortega for four runs over 6.1 innings. The Yanks wrapped this one up with a big 7th against Justin Speier. With one out, Robinson Cano singled, Jorge Posada hit a ground-rule double and Nick Swisher walked. Melky singled home Cano, and Ramiro Peña, playing for an injured A-Rod, doubled in Posada and Swisher. Read More→
Why are the Angels starting Saunders in Game 2?
Posted by: | CommentsUnlike the Yankees, the Angels will change up their postseason rotation order for the ALCS. As we learned yesterday, the Angels will start Joe Saunders in Game 2 in place of Jered Weaver, who started Game 2 against Boston in the ALDS. Manager Mike Scioscia’s reasoning is that he wants a lefty to pitch in Yankee Stadium to somewhat neutralize the Yankees power threat to right field. That’s a fine tactic, but why would Saunders get the nod over Scott Kazmir?
Scioscia didn’t elaborate on the decision, noting only that Saunders “has the tools to succeed in that stadium.” This is quite the vote of confidence from the Angels’ skipper, considering Saunders has yet to pitch in the new Yankee Stadium. Even in the old park, Saunders started just one game, allowing two runs over six innings. So why would Scioscia say that he has the tools to succeed in a place he has almost no experience pitching?
Before hitting the DL in early August, Saunders was having a terrible year. Through 136.2 innings he had allowed 81 earned runs for a 5.33 ERA. Even more pathetic was his 72:51 K/BB ratio. The DL stint seemed to help, though, as Saunders finished the season strong, allowing just 14 earned runs over 49.1 innings and improving his K/BB to 29:13. The knock is that just two of those starts were against playoff teams. Saunders got hit pretty hard by the Red Sox on September 16, though he did pitch well against the Yankees in his next start, allowing two runs in 8.1 innings.
The problem with evaluating Saunders based on his late-season run is that it’s exactly that: a late-season run. Teams call up their minor leaguers in September, which creates a different environment than we see from April through August. Bench players get more playing time, especially on non-contenting teams. And, lo and behold, five of the eight teams Saunders faced since his return from the DL had no shot at the playoffs. That makes it difficult to evaluate his performance post-DL. For all we know he could be the same pitcher as in the first half who happen to get lucky down the stretch.
(Remember, there’s a reason that more no-hitters are thrown in September than any other month.)
If we assume that the DL stint fixed whatever was wrong with Saunders, perhaps the decision makes a bit more sense. In his breakout 2008 season, Saunders pitched much better on the road, a 2.55 ERA and .643 OPS against, while pitching to a 4.27 ERA and .736 OPS against at home. The difference was mostly in home runs: he allowed 13 at home and only eight at home (in an equal sample of 99 innings each). Both his strikeout rate and walk rate were better at home, though.
Mike Scioscia surely knows his pitchers better than I do, but given the performance evidence it seems like a questionable decision to let Saunders pitch Game 2. It assumes that his 2008 breakout season is a true indicator of his ability, and that his late-season surge is a better indicator than his early season struggles. It’s tough to make a case for either claim. Saunders, a lefty with fringy stuff, doesn’t appear to be a guy who can sustain a 3.41 ERA. Even in 2008, his FIP was 4.36 and his tRA was 4.49.
It makes sense that Scioscia doesn’t want Weaver to pitch at Yankee Stadium. He pitched there twice this season and surrendered nine runs over 13.1 innings. In 16 career innings at the old Stadium, Weaver wasn’t much better. He allowed 10 runs in that span, including six home runs. As Dave Allen notes, Weaver’s extreme fly ball tendencies make him a liability at Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees mash fly balls over the wall. (Though, in good news for the Yankees, his extreme fly ball tendencies, at whichever park, help negate the Angels infield defense.)
If Weaver is scheduled to pitch Game 3 in Anaheim, why not flip-flip him with the ALDS Game 3 stater, Scott Kazmir? Despite his early-season struggles, he pitched well against the Yankees this year. Over 19.2 innings he allowed just seven runs, striking out 14 to just four walks. He’s been a Yankee killer for the most part, allowing just 26 runs over 87.2 career innings, with 86 strikeouts and 39 walks — but more importantly, just five home runs. The only knock is that he performed poorly at the old Yankee Stadium, allowing 14 runs over 25 innings. So perhaps that’s why Scioscia chose Saunders.
Keeping Jered Weaver away from Yankee Stadium is a good tactic for the Angels. However, in choosing his Game 2 starter, it appears Scioscia got a little too cute. Instead of going with his No. 3 starter, he’ll go into battle with a guy who didn’t start in the ALDS. More importantly, he’s starting a pitcher who was terrible most of the year, and only made a run when most teams were out of contention. This is good news for the Yankees, though. Instead of facing Kazmir, a perpetual nuisance, they’ll face Saunders, whom they should hit a bit easier. The decision also means that they’ll face Kazmir just once, in Game 4.
We won’t know how it will play out until the game happens, but from the ivory tower, it seems that Scioscia made the wrong call.
Romine stars in another Surprise win
Posted by: | CommentsWhy can’t every DotF be this easy?
AzFL Surprise (6-4 win over the Peoria Javelinas)
Austin Romine: 3 for 4, 1 RBI, 1 PB - allowed two stolen bases, but did gun down another
Colin Curtis: 1 for 4, 1 R
Mike Dunn: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 2-0 GB/FB – just 13 of 25 pitches were strikes (52%)
Still no Dominican Winter League or Puerto Rican League rosters.


