Archive for October, 2009
Shout Outs: Feinsand, IIATMS, Yankeeist
Posted by: | CommentsInstead of a link dump, today we’re going to run down some recent bloggy developments.
First, if you’re not already checking him out, make sure to make your way to Mark Feinsand’s blog, Blogging the Bombers. I’ve always been a fan of Mark. He either puts a lot of thought into his posts and articles, or else he’s so smart that he doesn’t need the extra thought. Either way he’s a good guy and a good read. Plus, the man knows what he’s doing. Since PeteAbe announced his departure, Mark has stepped up the blogging effort. It’s just one more outlet for Yanks fans to keep up with the team.
(Another bit in praise of Mark: He’s had the blog for a while, but he’s never tried to make it like Pete’s blog…until Pete was no longer in the game. I think it’s a fine strategic move. There’s no reason to put all your effort into something if you don’t stand to gain significantly. Mark kept up his blog presence, and when the opportunity arose he changed strategy. I respect that.)
Next up is It’s About the Money, Stupid. Earlier in the season, I said that Jason was going places: “Just wait until he has two, three years of this under his belt. He and Craig from Shysterball should have a real future with this gig.” Jason gets his first audition this month, as IIATMS is moving to the SweetSpot Blog Network. SweetSpot is Rob Neyer’s blog, and he’s taking a number of playoff team bloggers into the network. Should be good times.
I can’t point you to the blog yet, because it’s not live until Monday. Once that happens, we’ll get you there some way or another. Again, congratulations to Jason. He does a fine job over there, and has made constant strides to improve the site.
Finally, we have the Yankeeist. Remember Save Phil Hughes? If you’re a long-time reader of RAB you probably do. We linked to him frequently — Phil Hughes is, after all, a favorite of the blog. Larry retired that project a while ago, but he’s back in the game with Yankeeist. So stop by, say hello, and enjoy what he’s got there. It’s a nice complement to RAB.
Playoff rotation comes into view
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yanks prepare for a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the season, the playoffs are looming large in the minds of the Bombers and their fans. With the pitching match-ups set for this weekend, we know a firm sense of the Yanks’ plans and can debate the merits of the Andy-and-A.J. decision.
Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that CC Sabathia would start on Friday night in search of his 20th win. Most of the Yanks’ A team will back him up. On Saturday, Andy Pettitte will take the ball in a final regular-season tune-up, and on Sunday, A.J. Burnett and the ALDS Game 1 lineup will earn themselves at least a few innings of time on the field. And so, as I’ve done once a week or so for the last few weeks, we extrapolate.
It’s safe to assume that the Yankees are going to take the longer ALDS series to avoid the Joba/Chad Gaudin decision that looms not as large as we might think (but more on that when and if the time comes). The pitching rotation, then, looks a little something like this:
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Sabathia |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Burnett |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett |
| Oct. 12 | ALDS 4* | Sabathia |
| Oct. 13 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 14 | ALDS 5* | Pettitte |
We know that Chip Caray and Ron Darling will be manning the broadcast booth for the Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins. Now we have a pretty good idea who will be pitching.
On Wednesday, Joe tackled the Andy-and-A.J. debate and came to the conclusion I would have drawn. “I like A.J. as much as the next guy, he wrote, “but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.”
Personally, we’d all rather have CC Sabathia on the mound in the a do-or-die Game 5, but Game 4 could be just as important. Either the Yanks will try to close the door on the Tigers or Twins or the Bombers will have to win Game 4 to force Game 5. CC fights the bill for that match-up.
There is an interesting twist to the post-season pitching previews as well that I didn’t include in the chart. Right now, the Tigers hold a two-game lead over the Twins. In an ideal world, these two teams will tie so that they have to play a game on Tuesday. In an also-ideal world, the Twins will be a game behind the Tigers come Sunday. That day, you see, is Justin Verlander’s next start. If the Tigers face a must-win situation, they will start Verlander on Sunday, and he won’t be available to pitch on regular rest until Game 2. Although that would line him up to pitch Game 5, I’d take my chances with the rest of the Tigers’ rotation.
If the Tigers win a pair this weekend or if the Twins drop two to the Royals, the point will be moot. Verlander can rest until Game 1, and we’d have ourselves a good old fashioned pitcher’s battle to start the playoffs. I’m ready. Are you?
Johnny, Melky hope September slumps end in October
Posted by: | CommentsThe calendar has flipped from September to October, and while the playoffs aren’t quite here, everyone can feel it. These last three games won’t mean much, except maybe to CC Sabathia, who tries for his 20th win tonight. The rest is just a tune-up. But for two Yankees, it will be about setting a tone for the new month, the one that, for the Yankees and their championship-focused mentality, is all that matters.
Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera have been slumping of late. That’s fine. The Yankees had matters pretty well at hand coming into September, so to have two-thirds of their outfield struggling wasn’t the worst thing in the world. As we like to say when players slump, better now than in the playoffs. Players streak and players slump. Neither lasts forever, which is why it’s perfectly fine that both have had their struggles in September.
Of the two, Johnny’s has been worse, if only because he’s a more important piece than Melky. While he’s still getting on base — a .347 OBP on the strength of 14 walks — Damon has seemingly lost the power stroke that made him a Yankee hero earlier this season. He has only four extra base hits in 96 September plate appearances, all doubles. Even worse, he has just 19 hits, making a slash line of .235/.347/.284.
It could be that Damon, who will turn 36 in November, is breaking down in his old age. But given the amount of rest Girardi has provided him, that seems unlikely. Damon has appeared in just 22 September games, starting only 20. He’s had two two-day breaks in the past 11, so there’s no doubt he’s as well rested as he’s been at this point. In that 11 game span, by the way, Damon is hitting .083/.267/.083. From September 1 through 19, he hit .298/.385/.368, so there was only a loss of power. There doesn’t appear to be any reason to think Damon will continue this slide.
Melky’s slump is less pronounced than Damons, but that’s because Melky has a lower baseline. In September he’s hitting .287/.361/.414, which is actually pretty good. In fact, if the Yankees could get Melky to hit that way consistently, he could definitely man center field. The problem, as with Damon, is his play of late.
We last wrote about Melky on September 8. He had just gone 3 for 4 with two RBI in the second game of the Tampa Bay doubleheader, in which he went 4 for 7 with a walk overall. Since our previous criticism, on August 19th, Melky had hit .348/.392/.464. But, just like every other time we criticize Melky, he turned it around. From the 8th through the 30th, Melky’s hitting .214/.302/.321.
Some players are going to slump in October. It’s just part of the game. If Melky continues hitting poorly, well, the Yanks just have to accept that. Thankfully, they can use Brett Gardner and have his speed in the lineup. But the Yankees can ill-afford to have Damon’s woes continue into the cool October nights. Unfortunately, there’s not much Girardi can do, other than to play Damon all three games this weekend and hope he hits a rhythm. He’ll have plenty of time to rest on Monday and Tuesday.
OMFG we found pictures of Melvin Croussett
Posted by: | CommentsRAB’s National Director of Watching Prospects In Florida and International Liaison To The Dominican Republic – aka Andy in Sunny Daytona – has finally, finally found photographical evidence of the existence of young Melvin Croussett, and lefthanded pitcher that before today only existed in spreadsheets and in our hearts. Andy’s search has spanned the last two seasons and then some, so it’s needless to say that today is a great day in the history of RAB.
Ladies and gentlemen, after the jump, I present you … Melvin Croussett.
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Open Thread: Questions for Roy White, Mickey Rivers, and Oscar Gamble
Posted by: | CommentsAn opportunity came our way last week to interview three former Yankees: Roy White, Mickey Rivers, and Oscar Gamble. Obviously we jumped on the chance. Why not listen to the wisdom of three former players? Yet just after we accepted, we realized our deficiency here:
None of us have seen these guys play.
Rivers and Gamble played in our early years, but I don’t remember them at all. So, while we’re able to ask them questions about the teams they played on, we think there’s more potential here. We’re inviting everyone here to submit questions for Roy, Mickey, and Oscar, especially if you’ve seen them play. It will add to the depth of the interview, which we’re hoping will run during some downtime during the playoffs.
Please email the questions to me — the address is in the right sidebar. Because this is the open thread for the evening, I won’t be raking through the Anchorman references to find questions. You can also send questions to our Gmail address: riveraveblues gmail com (sorry, trying to avoid spam — though that’s actually how I would type the address into my BlackBerry).
Have at it: it’s your open thread. Be vicious, vile, and inhumane to each other. It’s what open threads were created for.
Arangure: Yanks were interested in Sano
Posted by: | CommentsAs you may already know, the top prospect on this year’s international market – shortstop Miguel Sano – finally signed earlier this week after MLB investigated his age (actually, the investigation is still ongoing). Several teams, including the Pirates and Orioles, were hard after Sano, but the Twins landed him because they were willing to meet his asking price. According to Jorge Aragure Jr. at ESPN, the Yankees expressed some interest in signing Sano after his agent turned down Pittsburgh’s $2.6M offer, and says that “at one point it appeared the Yankees would swoop in and sign Sano.” The Yanks have an extra $850,000 in their pocket after their deal with Dominican shortstop formerly known as Damian Arredondo was voided, so it looks like the team was actively looking to redistribute those funds, and then some.
Girardi ranks among best bullpen managers
Posted by: | CommentsJoe Girardi might seem to make some odd decisions when choosing relievers, but on the whole he’s done a fine job of managing his bullpen this year. I make this claim not based on stats, but based on what I’ve observed of the situation. Sometimes it seems he gets too cute in a LaRussa-like way, using multiple relievers to get just a few outs, but it works. Despite in April in which the bullpen had a 6.46 ERA, the Yanks pen currently sports a 3.94 ERA, fifth best in the AL. Of the things the Yanks have to worry about, the bullpen doesn’t appear to be one of them.
*If you don’t believe in advanced stats or believe that everything in baseball is self-evident, then you won’t want to continue.
Advanced stats support Girardi’s bullpen management. Jeremy Greenhouse at The Baseball Analysts looks at each team’s bullpen using a number of WPA-based figures: WPA/LI, Clutch, and pLI. The Yankees rank atop the league in Clutch from the bullpen, and up near the top in WPA/LI. In that neat Google Motion chart embedded in the article, you’ll see the Yanks dot hanging out by itself on the right. They’re easily the closest to the ideal position: top right.
Further supporting the argument is pLI, which is the Leverage Index for each player. The relievers with the highest pLI are mostly those with the highest WPA. The higher pLI means that these pitchers have the best chance of picking up WPA, since WPA fluctuates the most in high leverage situations. But because we’re seeing a high WPA, it means that for the most part the Yanks relievers did their job. Mariano Rivera was used in the highest leverage situations, 1.71 pLI, and has the highest WPA. Phil Hughes is second with a 1.43 pLI and a 2.4 WPA. Had these two failed more often, their WPA would not be as high.
Two names appear misplaced on the list: Phil Coke and Al Aceves. Aceves has the fourth highest pLI on the team, 1.07, but has a WPA of 1.92, third best in the bullpen. It would appear that Girardi should move Aceves up into higher leverage situations, and perhaps he would have if not for his late-season role as Joba’s caddy. Because Aceves was facing hitters in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings — sometimes with a run deficit — his pLI dropped. Under normal circumstances, Aceves would move up into higher leverage situations. I expect him to regularly appear in the seventh inning this October.
The other is Phil Coke. It’s hard to get a good read on the rookie lefty’s season. He’s had great stretches and he’s had poor ones. He’s had games where he’s given up six runs, and he’s had appearances where he throws nothing but strikes. The bad appearances have hurt his WPA (as they should), leaving it at 0.88, yet his pLI is 1.29, third highest on the team. Girardi trusts Coke in big spots, and for the most part he comes through. It just seems that when he doesn’t come through, the results are beyond disastrous.
Aside riff:
I’ve always thought that ERA is a terrible indicator of effectiveness for relievers. One bad outing can kill your ERA. See Phil Coke’s blowup against the White Sox. He’s clearly pitched better than his ERA this season. The biggest issue is that relievers work with such small samples. It’s why we see so much volatility from year to year in reliever performances. While WPA is a great narrative tool, I think it can also bring some insight into a reliever’s value. Relievers work in the context of a situation, unlike starters, who help create the context. The game is usually over halfway unfolded once a reliever appears, so he’s mainly pitching in the situation. WPA captures the situation. I’d like to see a bit more work go into this.
Pitching staffs get shortened in the postseason. The Yankees will only need three starters — if they’re willing to start CC in Game 4 of the ALCS on three days’ rest — in the first two rounds. They should also only need three relievers, maybe four. They’ll carry more, but chances are we won’t see pitchers not named CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves get the ball very often, if at all. These are the guys who have performed best for the Yankees this season, and they’re the ones that will decide the team’s fate.
Given the circumstances, Girardi has done a good job not only of distributing the innings out of the pen, but of putting the right pitcher in the right spot. Sometimes he might make the wrong call, and when he does the fan base is quick to jump on him. Those instances tend to stand out in our minds, though, giving them a bit more weight. When we take a step back and look at the season as a whole, Girardi comes out ahead. Thankfully, other than a few lefty-righty matchups, he won’t have to think much about who to pitch and when. The Yanks relievers have done their job of proving it to him this season.
Poll: What was your favorite moment of the second half?
Posted by: | CommentsEvery year, there are certain moments in the season that remind us just why baseball is the greatest game on Earth, and this year is no different. Sure, lots of us take this silly game far too seriously, but that’s only because we love it so much. We’re lucky to be fans of the greatest franchise in sports history, as the Yankees give us more great memories than we can handle at times.
RAB readers already voted Mariano Rivera‘s bases loaded walk their favorite moment of the first half, and I figured now was a good time to see what everyone’s favorite moment of the second half was. Here’s a few of the highlights:
August 2nd: Melky Cabrera hits for the cycle (video)
With co-centerfield Brett Gardner out with a broken thumb, Melky was going to be a full-time player for the foreseeable future. He hit the first pitch he saw from Mark Buehrle and deposited into the bullpen for a three run homer, then doubled over the head of rightfielder Jermaine Dye two innings later. El Leche ended Buehrle’s outing the very next inning, dropping an RBI single into center to give the Yanks a two-run lead. With the Yanks maintaining that same lead in the 9th inning, Melky worked a full count off reliever Scott Linebrink before lifting a pitch into the right-centerfield gap. Dye misplayed the ball and it went all the way to wall, and the result was the first cycle by a Yankee since Tony Fernandez way back in 1995.
August 7th: A-Rod‘s 15th inning walk-off vs. Boston (video)
In the second game of what would prove to be the biggest series of the season for both teams, AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett matched zeroes through 7+ innings before each bullpen chipped in another 7+ innings of scoreless ball. A loss would have brought the Red Sox to within 2.5 games of the AL East title, a win would have pushed the Yanks ahead with a commanding 4.5 game lead. Alex Rodriguez, 1-for-6 in the game up to that point, stepped to the plate with two outs and a runner on second against Junichi Tazawa, who was making his big league debut. After taking the first three pitches, A-Rod jumped all over a hanging curve and sent it into the visitor’s bullpen for a 15th inning walk-off win. If nothing else, watch the video just to listen to sound of the ball of the bat. B-e-a-utiful.
August 9th: Damon & Tex go back-to-back off Dan Bard (video and video)
With the first three games of the series already in the win column, pretty much everyone was content with taking three of four after Phil Coke served up a go-ahead, two run jack to Victor Martinez in the top of the 8th. Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira had different ideas. After two quick groundouts, Damon took a 1-0 pitch from the untouchable Dan Bard and sent it into the Yanks’ bullpen to tie the score. Two pitches later, Tex hit a curveball into orbit before it eventually settled into the second deck in right. It was only early August, but for all intents and purposes, the division race was over the instant Tex got the bat on the ball.
Sept. 11th: Derek Jeter becomes the Yankees all-time hit leader (video)
After a four week long assault on AL pitching that saw him pick up 44 hits in just 102 at-bats, Derek Jeter returned home to the Bronx on Sept. 7th just three hits shy of tying Lou Gehrig for the most hits in franchise history. After a quick 0-for-12 skid, Jeter tied the Iron Horse on a Wednesday night (with me in attendance), and came to the park Friday looking to pass him (Thursday was on off-day). O’s rookie Chris Tillman got Jeter swinging at strike three in the first, but Jeter returned to the plate to leadoff the third. Tillman’s first two pitches were outside the zone, and like any good hitter, Jeter took the 2-0 fastball and ripped it to right in typical Jeterian fashion for a single. With 2,722 hits and counting, Derek Jeter stood alone as the Yanks’ all-time hit king.
Those are just some of the highlights of the first half. Vote on your favorite below, but if you think another moment was the best of the second half – maybe the Sabathia-Verander duel, or clinching the division against Boston, or one of the various walk-off hits – use the “Add an Answer” button to write in your own favorite moment. And to the jerk that added the racist word to the poll last time, don’t do it again. I’ll just delete it, and I’m sure your bosses at Goldman Sachs in Jersey City wouldn’t appreciate you trolling blogs mid-day.
Update (3:22pm): The Castillo Dropped Ball happened in early June people. First half.
Girardi ‘the man’ but not for an extension yet
Posted by: | CommentsHal Steinbrenner speaketh and so we listen.
Yesterday afternoon, prior to the Yanks’ last home game of the regular season, Hal Steinbrenner made a rare appearance in front of the media. As the Yanks’ beat writers grilled him on topics ranging from Hank and George to the team’s postseason hopes, Hal talked a little bit about Joe Girardi’s future.
As the Yankee writers are wont to do, talk eventually turned to Girardi’s job security. “Would Joe be fired if the Yanks do not capture a crown?” they asked. Hal answered diplomatically, “Joe has had a tremendous year this year. We all know that. He’s got the best record in baseball. As far as I’m concerned and the family’s concerned and the organization’s concerned, he’s the man for the job.”
Later in the day, Jon Heyman clarified the Yanks’ thinking. “Regardless of what happens in October,” Heyman wrote, “the Yankees don’t plan to extend Joe Girardi this winter. Team policy is to let every contract run to the end. And that includes Girardi, and even Derek Jeter, whose contract also expires after 2010.”
So Joe Girardi will head into 2010 as a lame-duck manager no matter what. Should the Yankees win the title, he’ll feel pretty good about his job security. Should they falter early in the playoffs, he’ll have to manage while looking over his shoulder all season. That can’t be a very comfortable feeling.
So far in his short Yankee tenure, nothing Girardi has done has led me to think he’s a bad fit for New York. Much as Joe Torre did, he knows how to handle a team of high-paid veterans and up-and-coming rookies. Despite a rocky start over injuries in 2009, he has shown an ability to handle a critical and fickle New York sports media. He has also shown a tendency to win games. His in-game strategy has led to a Major League-best 102 wins this year.
In the end, Girardi probably will get an extension. Hal seems to recognize that the playoffs are of a different beast than the regular season. The battle is getting there, and after that, the manager — as long as he doesn’t, say, bat A-Rod eighth — has less of an effect on the team than we would want. My money is on an eventual extension, but similar to Derek Jeter, Girardi won’t earn his until after a solid 2010 campaign. That’s just the way things work in the Yankee Universe.
Winning by any means necessary
Posted by: | CommentsIf you haven’t already seen it at Deadspin, I suggest you watch the above video of Joe Mauer stealing signs immediately. MLB will probably yank it down soon. Make sure you read the text in the clip, you won’t need any sound.
As for some context, that video was taken from the 6th inning of the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader, and a win would have tied the Twins with Detroit for the AL Central with five games to go, two against the Tigers. Minny was down 5-0 and had just two weak singles off Justin Verlander in the previous five innings. Denard Span doubled, Orlando Cabrera singled him in, then Mauer doubled with O-Cab going to third. It was the Twins first rally of any kind off Verlander, and apparently Mauer decided to do what all good MVP’s would do: he stole the signs from Gerald Laird and relayed them to Jason Kubel at the plate via a series of hand signals.
This is nothing new to the game of baseball and Mauer is far from a horrible person for it. Players have been stealing signs for over a hundred years, and Mauer’s team was behind in what was then the biggest game of their season. Laird and Verlander were aware of it (as you can see in the video), and did what they could to throw the pitch they wanted without giving away the signs. I’m sure Laird has stolen signs at some point in his career, so what’s the big deal?
That’s the question, do you think it’s a big deal? It’s a big game for Minnesota and Mauer is doing what he can to help his team win. Heck, for all we know Miguel Cabrera was stealing signs from second and relaying them to Brandon Inge in the previous inning, when Inge broke things open with a two-run single. How would you feel if you knew the Yanks did something like this in the postseason? What if they had it done to them?
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
