Swisher can still redeem himself
ByThe postseason so far has not agreed with Nick Swisher. He’s just 3 for 29 with three walks, far from the production he posted during the regular season. He started off the ALCS with two hits in two games, but his last hit came in Game 2. Since then he’s 0 for his last 11, including a brutal Game 5 performance. Yet Swisher still has a chance to make everything right.
Just how bad is Swisher hitting right now? In the Yanks breakout seventh inning, he made both the first and last outs. The last one hurt especially. Robinson Cano had just tripled in the go-ahead runs and was standing on third, waiting for Swisher to dunk one into the outfield and extend the lead. Instead, Swisher did what he has done so many times this series: flied out.
In the ninth, down by one, the Yankees mounted a two-out rally, sparked by the Angels’ decision to intentionally walk Alex Rodriguez. Matsui coaxed a free pass, and Cano took a breaking ball between the shoulder blades. That set up Swisher in clutchest of clutch situations: ninth inning, bases loaded, two outs, tying run 90 feet away. Swish didn’t have to hit a home run. With Brett Gardner standing on second base, all he had to do was dunk one into the outfield and the Yankees would have taken the lead. But as he did in the seventh inning, he failed.
Sometimes you just have to chalk it up to the pitcher. Fuentes is the Angels closer, and he had retired the first two hitters of the inning. The Yankees made a valiant effort, but came up short. Yet in this instance, the failure seems to be squarely on Swisher’s shoulders — the pitch was a 91 mph fastball right down the middle. See for yourself (via Brooks):
Swisher is simply off his game. He he been even close to his normal rhythm, he might have parked that pitch and given Mo a three-run lead. Even if he’s not going perfectly, Swisher should be able to line that one into the shallow outfield and give the Yanks a one-run lead. But Swish popped it up, demonstrating exactly how out of rhythm he is right now.
The beauty of the Yanks’ position, though, is that Swisher still has a chance at redemption. If he can put his horrible performances behind him and come up with a big Game 6, all will be forgotten. If he drives in a few runs, or gets on base to set up a big inning, leading to a Yankees win, we’ll put the bad memories in the backs of our minds. Yes, Swish had a chance and failed. But, because the Yankees put themselves in an advantageous position, they still have two more chances. Swisher can be a big part of a potential series win.
That’s why I’m not too down about last night. No one thought the Yankees would blow out the Angels, so to finish the series in five would have been a gift. Now they get another shot, at home, in Game 6, and Swisher gets another shot at redemption. Last night’s loss may have been tough, but there’s still plenty of reasons to believe that the Yankees will finish this out. I just hope Swish is a big part of it.
Swisher is lucky the absolutely useless Guzman is on the roster because Hinske would be playing RF.
I doubt that.
Hey Lanny, come on you know better than that
You know, earlier in the game he put some real good swings on the ball, the best I think all postseason. And against a better pitcher than Fuentes. He hit a couple fouls real hard and if I remember right, hit a shot right at Morales. Maybe it’s a sign he’s waking up a bit. In that last AB he definitely swung at a couple of balls that would’ve put him on base and tied the game, but he got what he wanted in that meatball pitch. Yanks still battled back, more bats are waking up (Damon, Tex, Cano, Matsui) so I feel good about them being at home to finish this.
You know at some point Swish is going to remind everyone why we all loved him so much during the season, with all the
Chuck NorrisSwisha is so awesome quotes. I just hope he does it sooner than later.To quote TSJC: “Confidence level = 27″
No .. Hinske would not be playing .. Girardi (in a rare moment of wisdom this postseason) correctly notes that Swish is still the same Swish he’s been all season and a few fruitless PAs aren’t going to change that
Bet you wanted Damon to sit after the twins series too, right? not like Damon had a big game 1 of the angels series or anything…
His playoff BABIP is .158. That won’t last.
The reason they lost was the pitching of AJ and Hughes in the 7th inning, period. Marte did his job.
Yea but a lot of the contact he’s made has been poor contact, so unless we start seeing more quality ABs and solid contact, like last night, I honestly don’t think we’ll see his BABIP go up…
/nod
As I sort of said in the recap thread:
1) When you and everyone else in the world know exactly what’s coming…
2) And it’s a 91mph straight fastball in the heart of the plate…
3) And you can’t even get good wood on it…
Then you definitely aren’t seeing the ball well.
If you’re expecting Swish to break out and go 3-4 on Saturday night, you are almost certainly going to be disappointed. He isn’t just getting unlucky — he looks lost right now.
Isn’t that two games in a row that Marte has done his job (though I think last time was one pitch), would be nice to see him get going, and used. There’s a reason he received a three year deal, and it’s not that Cashman likes to toss money around
Damaso Marte couldn’t get Joe Mauer out one time in the ALDS. No great shame there, Mauer’s the best player in baseball.
Other than that one PA, Marte’s been stellar this postseason. He’s faced 6 batters and made 4 outs, not allowed a run, and not walked a soul. His ERA is 0.00.
his Babip over 30 ABs tells you nothing. Lot of weak contact for swish.
Swisher “off his game” ?? What game is that?? Ok , he hit 29 homers…how many people here thought he would get actually get a hit? How many were praying for a walk to a 29 HR 82RBI guy?
Yanks will win despite the “efforts” of this clown
Your comment does not make sense.
You’re a towel!
It may be over thinking but it went though my head at the time. Fuentes walked Matsui (lefty) and then hit Cano (fefty) and was clearly laboring. If I was Swisher, who is having a hard time getting the bat going anyway, why not go up there as a lefty and not give Fuentes a different look? Who knows, he may hit him too!
Heh, but when’s the last time he faced a batter from the same side of the plate? I’m sure there’s a comfort factor in there.
Why does this always come up? I’ve heard it for Swish, Posada and Tex this year.
When was the last time Swish faced a LHP while batting lefty? 3rd grade?
Nick Swisher is a good/borderline great baseball player. He’s struggling at the plate mightily at the moment, and that sucks.
If Xavier Nady was healthy right now, I’d wholeheartedly endorse giving Swisher the bench for a postseason game or two to see if clearing his head and working with K-Long can get him back on track, because Nady is a downgrade but still a good enough player to warrant a postseason start.
However, Nick Swisher is a much, much, much, much better baseball player than Brett Gardner, Freddy Guzman, Jerry Hairston, and even Eric Hinske (although it’s moot here), so I issue a pre-emptive “OH HELLS NO” to all the people who will undoubtedly call for Swisher to be benched for any of those other outfielders for the last game of the ALCS tomorrow or for any of the games of the World Series after that.
Swish is a talented and good hitter who’s in a funk at an inopportune time (and who hit well down the stretch, for that matter: .253/.377/.558/.935). He’ll snap out of it, most likely; Tex, Damon, Cano, and Melky have. Gardner/Guzman/Hairston/Hinske are not the answers. I’d rather take my chances with Nick than settle for the safer but far inferior options B through E.
I agree, don’t bench him because the replacements are not an upgrade, but a “borderline great player” ? My head is spinning.
If Nady was healthy there would be no Nick Swisher to worry about.
If Nady was healthy, he’d still have been the 4th outfielder during the regular season, and he’d be the occasional starter.
Swish would start during the postseason, though, because he’s better. If Nady were healthy, you might have seen Swish benched for Nady, at the earliest, in last night’s Game 5. Swish would have been given all the ALDS starts and the first 4 games of the ALCS as well, because he’d have earned the default starting position due to his better regular season and overall superior skill, both offensively and defensively.
Xavier Nady is not better than Nick Swisher. Fact.
I thought Swisher was brought in to play 1B and when Tex signed he was thought to be the 4th OF behind Nady with a possible platoon. I don’t remember Swisher being given the RF job ahead of Nady. I could be wrong but that is how I remember it.
Swish wasn’t given the 4th OF job. Nady was.
Swish won the job from him, fair and square. Because he’s better. Were Nady still healthy, he would be our first bat off the bench.
Sorry:
Swish wasn’t given the
4th OFstarting RF job. Nady was.Fixed.
Swisher got the job when Nady got hurt, I don’t believe Nady was playing long enough to lose his job due to Swisher’s play. Nady played in 7 games and had 28 AB’s ….looks to me like he was the guy the Yanks wanted in RF.
Nady sat twice for Swish immediately before getting hurt. Swish took the job from him fair and square with his ridiculous April.
I don’t believe Nady was playing long enough to lose his job due to Swisher’s play.
He was.
Nady played in 7 games and had 28 AB’s ….looks to me like he was the guy the Yanks wanted in RF.
During those two weeks that encompassed that 7 games, Swisher played in 8 games and had 28 PA. Nady had 7 OF starts, Swish had 6. If anything, they were effectively co-starters, and Swish was crushing the ball. Nady wasn’t doing much.
The injury only cemented the fact that Swish earned the starting RF gig. When Nady was rehabbing, he wasn’t rehabbing to come back and start, he was rehabbing to come join the bench.
Swish >>>>> Nady. It’s a fact. Deal with it. Move on.
but a “borderline great player” ? My head is spinning.
Nick Swisher’s 3.7 WAR was the 54th best among qualifiers in all of baseball. Better than Todd Helton, Jason Bay, David Wright, Shane Victorino, Brian Roberts, Rafael Furcal, Curtis Granderson, Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman, Jason Kubel, Chipper, Jones, Johnny Damon, Carlos Peña, Andre Ethier, Bobby Abreu, Nick Johnson, Hideki Matsui, Carlos Lee, Colby Rasmus, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Aaron Rowand, Mark DeRosa, Luke Scott, Brad Hawpe, James Loney, Adam Dunn, Dexter Fowler, David Ortiz, and hundreds of others.
Borderline great? Hells yes.
is there supposed to be a great player in that list? I guess we disagree on the word “great”
Apparently.
I don’t even know where to start with that. It’s not going to be worth the time on a Friday.
Borderline great?
They must have moved the line during the night.
Agree.
Borderline great is bit much.
I’m new to pitch f/x, I understand how it works, and how to read it, but when I went to their site to look up Jorge’s ab on the walk vs lackey, I can’t really find it.
is this it? cause it really don’t make sense…
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/.....v_size=500
It’s show’s the 8th pitch, called a ball, but in the strike zone, but on the outside of the plate…
That’s it. All of the PFX graphs are from the catcher’s perspective.
oh, cool, thanks…I guess I didn’t understand the finer points, haha.
Jorge got a gift.
But so did Lackey when he struck out Tex in the first.
In what way has Gardner not been given a start at least by default?? I understand not playing him against the lefty(s). But with Guzman on the bench and both Damon and Swish struggling at multiple points this postseason, I strongly believe Gardner deserves at least one shot at a start. With 2 games to lose, I would’ve done it last night against Lackey. But my point is probably moot since Swish would pinch hit for Gardner in the situations after the 7th.
In what way has Gardner not been given a start at least by default??
Because Nick Swisher’s better than he is.
But my point is probably moot since Swish would pinch hit for Gardner in the situations after the 7th.
You’re damn right he would, and yes, it’s moot.
I agree with Andy about giving Gardner a start over Swisher. Everyone needs to get their head out of the stat books with Swisher. He is a slumping mediocre talent with a low baseball IQ but an engaging personality. Gardner could hardly do worse offensively than Swisher and his speed, base-running and defense are superior to even the casual observer. His ability to create havoc alone is a good enough reason to give him a shot.
Everyone needs to get their head out of the stat books with Swisher.
Stat books have nothing to do with it.
Well stat books have, in fact, a lot to do with it. your argument for his borderline greatness is predicated solely on stats — and it can’t be based on “feel,” however nebulous that term may be, because there’s no way anyone who’s watched him the past few games sees anything other than a very, very lost looking hitter. So, how do stats have nothing to do with it?
Because the “stat books” smear is irrelevant and wrongheaded. It is a meaningless slur line that implies that the people who know that Swisher is a good hitter and can back that up with stats are somehow misguided because we can back up our arguments with stats.
The fact that I can back up my argument with evidence does not make my argument weaker, it makes it stronger.
Swisher had good to great stats this year, and still had periods where he looked lost at the plate. He eventually came out of those, or he wouldn’t have had the stats he did (duh!). So yes, stick with Swisher, he’ll come out of it. If his slumps continues for the rest of the postseason, well, that is just some bad luck. There aren’t any better options.
Doh! Reply fail, mean’t to reply to JackC.
He’s 0 for 3 in pinch running attempts this series. His “ability to create havoc alone” has cost the Yankees this series.
Maury Wills would have been thrown out on that 0-1 count pitchout if he was ordered to run as Gardner seemingly was on that pitch. If he is the flow of the game Gardner will produce on the bases. Creating havoc is not just stealing a base, it’s the pitcher being bothered, fielders out-of-synch, going from first to third, etc.
Without Swisher’s production we’re likely not playing today at all.
He carried the team in April, and in numerous road games.
He’s in a slump, like all hitters have. His slump just came at the worst possible time.
Swisher’s a choke artist. Wilson Betemit would’ve crushed that pitch.
i wanted to puke when swisher stepped up to the plate last night. couldnt even make solid contact against a get me over fastball. might be time for hairston, i think he has some magic in him.
FAIRY DUST = WIN
Swisher>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hairston>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>what you think
2009 Nick Swisher might be the most underappreciated 126+ hitter in baseball history.
Yankees wish they kept Abreu and his (non)-MVP like season
/MSM’d
Swisher has been very bad for a couple weeks now. Its kinda surprising when you look at his September – early October stats. Swish wasn’t exactly floundering at the plate leading up to the playoffs. Its a bad time for Swish to go all May on us.
True.
The solution to that unfortunate dilemma is not going to be found in overreacting to anything, though. That’s all I’m saying.
Isnt it funny that Yankee fans kill Girardi for micromanaging- yet you have people calling for Gardner/Hairston to start over Swish
Ignorance cares not a whit for logical consistency.
Logic is for assholes. Screaming is awesome. Everything Girardi does is wrong.
You want overreacting? I’ll give you over-reacting!
Cut Swisher now. I don’t care if you can’t fill his roster spot. Just cut him. Right. Now.
sadly i have heard that twice today. along with the i hate girardi he sucks why would he open a book to decide a pitching change in extra innings.
sigh.
Remember how everyone wanted to bench Damon about a week ago? And then look what happened, he broke out of his slump.
Confidence in Swisher breaking out of his slump >>>>>>>>>>> Confidence in Gardner doing anything at the plate
without him we would have swept the angels. game 3, 2 at bats with a man on third and less than two outs he doesnt get the job done. hes not struggling he’s costing us the series. time to bat him ninth atleast. no?
This is a joke right?
we used to blame playoff losses on our clean up hitter, now its time to blame the #7 hitter.
time to bat him ninth atleast. no?
No.
without him we would have swept the angels.
Because there is this magical great player sitting on the bench?
Throw your spreadsheets out the window, kids. Swisher is having a nervous breakdown out there. He said as much in the postgame show last night (”I tried to calm down, I tried to calm down…”. Hairston is the right move tomorrow night against Saunders.
Fine, will do.
(throws spreadsheet out the window)
Without using any statistical analysis, just old school scouting and a manager’s gut instinct, Swisher’s still a better player than Hairston, Gardner, and Guzman. So he keeps starting.
I can see that he’s a better player with my eyes. And my gut tells me to dance with the ones that brung ya.
Statistics and emotions agree: Nick Swisher should start Game 6 in RF.
Cone said last night he’s exhbiting the classic symptoms of a guy who’s playing tight; always late on the fastball, always ahead of the breaking stuff. I think it’s crazy to keep running him out there. Sit him down, break the spell, let him PH late in the game and see what happens.
Fine. Show me a suitable replacement who can take his first 4 turns through the order and I’m on board.
It’s not Jerry Hairston or Brett Gardner.
Bring back Strawberry!
He always had lots of magic pixie dust…oh wait, was that coke?
2 RAB commandments were broken last night leading to our demise…
1. Captain OPS Swisher couldn’t get a H-I-T when we needed one
and
2. Chone Figgins laid down a beautiful SACRIFICE BUNT to put both runners in scoring position and both came around to score.
While its true both these things happened:
1. Swisher could have walked too, which is a vital part of his OPS, and he wasn’t able to do that, even the greatest players get out more than they get on base. You’d have a point here if Swisher walked and didn’t get a hit in a time where a walk wasn’t as good as a hit.
2. Just because both runners came around to score doesn’t make it a good play. It did directly lead to getting 1 run, but the 2nd run had nothing to do with the bunt, but more Hughes not getting his job done.
Also, Figgins is decent hitter. I’d rather have him out than have him on the bases or hitting a double down the line… I’ll take the out.
1. Don’t ever “could have” after something happens when you are trying to make a point.
2. The 2nd run…
- C. Figgins sacrificed to pitcher, J. Mathis to third, E. Aybar to second*****
- B. Abreu grounded out to first, J. Mathis scored, E. Aybar to third****
- V. Guerrero singled to shallow center, E. Aybar scored****
Seems to me the sac bunt put him exactly where he needed to be to score.
Seems to me the sac bunt gave the Yankees an out after they put the 1st 2 on in the inning….
And after the first run scored on Abreu’s RBI groundout, all Hughes had to do was retire either Hunter or Guerrero, and the inning is over, the rally is squashed, and that second (and more important) game tying run wouldn’t have scored.
The sac bunt increased the Angels chances of scoring one run, but decreased their chances of scoring two runs. Which they needed. If Phil Hughes is normal Phil Hughes instead of crappy Phil Hughes, that sac bunt would have backfired miserably.
Aybar would have been in scoring position anyways for Vlad’s single.
for 1, the point was Swisher failed to get on base, not that he failed to get a hit, both would have done the job to tie the game.
couldnt agree more frank. I love swish but he is killing the yankess right now. put in the scrappy veteran
Please use the reply button, it keeps the conversation easy to manage. Thanks in advance.
I’m fine with Swisher staying in the lineup right where he was. I know we’re disappointed with what he did with that 7th pitch but does anyone really think Hairston or Gardner work a better AB based on their previous performances and not wishful thinking?
Plus, Swisher in RF w/his bat is an asset whether or not your eyes tell you different. Let’s not forget the nice throw he made last night to keep the runner to third base.
Hairston got the winning rally started in Game 2 with a nice little clean single to center. He won’t try to hit HR’s every swing, can play small ball if it’s required and he won’t hurt us in the field. It’s also about getting Swisher to see the game from the sielines and relax a little bit. His head needs clearing.
I seem to remember Hairston striking out miserably and looking completely overmatched as well in that game.
He won’t try to hit HR’s every swing, can play small ball if it’s required and he won’t hurt us in the field.
I don’t think we can agree on this topic considering you just described Swisher in that sentence.
Gardner is not better than Swish, but he’s been damned good in 2009, with good to excellent avg/obp in
the 7-9th innings (.337/.416)
high & medium leverage situations (.289/.333 & 287/.347) games
facing relief pitchers (.316/.402)
late & close (.300/.391)
Tie Game (.347/.411)
In tight situations he usually keeps the line moving, and everyone’s memory should have that fact in it. Since it’s what actually happened several times. I don’t see the passion to completely dismiss the guy. I’d rather have Swish up than Gardner, but BG’s not chopped liver.
BG per baseball-ref: http://www.baseball-reference......09&t=b
make mapoli should of started yesterday, i mean he is the every day catcher. i wonder why mathis is getting more playing time he’s only a 200 hitter. its called managaing
Can’t wait to see how people try to dispute this ^^
its called managaing
Your Napoli/Mathis point? It’s called “irrelevant”.
How is going with the hot bat irrelevant? If you were managing the Angels, Napoli would play 9 inn per game in this series. Isn’t that the point you have been defending this whole thread? Meanwhile, Mathis is on a tear.
It’s irrelevant because the Angels catching situation is not analogous to the Yankees RF situation.
Why isn’t it analogous?
Because Napoli and Mathis are catchers. Catchers always platoon and swap in and out for each other.
Swisher is the starting RF, and has earned it through far superior play over all other bench RF options. Napoli and Mathis sharing catching duties is typical. Benching the only starting RF is not typical.
you do realize that Mathis was only starting because he is Lackey’s personal catcher right? not because of his hot bad. thats not smart managing, its actually the opposite when you have a much better hitter on the bench.
I did not realize that. I withdraw all previous comments from the records. Due to work schedule, I have only been able to watch game 1 and game 5. I did not realize Mathis wasn’t playing every day.
Thank you.
I also saw him hitting in game 3 and going 2 for 2. I only saw late in the game.
That prick is capitalizing on every opportunity. Unbelievable.
It is pretty ridiculous that a hitter that bad can come up with so many big hits in a series.
It really is unbelievable. I’d like to see some breaking pitches low in the zone, since all he seems to be hitting is high fastballs….
Mathis is their Jose Molina. Except that Molina is actually a better hitter. Insane.
And if the Yankees had another solid outfielder that they usually platooned on tear offensively right now they’d probably go ahead and start him over Swisher…but they don’t.
you cant get much worse than swisher right now. more upside sitting him on the bench.
Nick Swisher has two outstanding offensive skills that primarily generate all of his offensive value. Drawing walks and hitting for power.
Swisher does not square the ball up very often. When he does it will go a long way. But he doesn’t square the ball up consistently. He just doesn’t have the bat skills to do so.
In the regular season it all works out and he’s a useful player. A limited one, but a good player to have, especially on a team like the yankees.
The issue of concern for Swisher in the playoffs is how he can adapt to seeing better pitching, particularly pitchers with better command – which is what you’re going to face in the playoffs.
Drawing a walk is a real skill – but it’s a skill that is contingent on the pitcher’s command/control. The Twins and Angels both have very good command rotations. Neither team’s rotation walks a lot of guys.
Swisher is clearly slumping. But there is substantive reasons to be concerned that his level of performance may drop sharply in the playoffs for organic reasons.
So the issue is I’ve never seen anything showing that Swisher feasts off of bad pitching, if he did, then this would make a ton of sense, however I don’t know if its true. This year he put up .800 OPS+ numbers against all forms of pitching.
What we do know is he’s incredibly streaky, we saw various streaks from him this year where he couldn’t make an out, and then couldn’t get a hit, regardless of pitching. It makes more sense that right now he is in the downswing, and hopefully he hits an upswing soon, thus putting this to bed.
Nowhere did I make a comment about his “feasting” on bad pitching.
I commented on his ability to adapt to pitchers and staffs that systmatically have better control/ command than average.
He was wildly inconsistent for large sections of this season. And he’s clearly in one of those stretches now.
But he’s just not as likely to be able to draw walks at the same rate as he was in the regular season because he is going to face pitchers with better command. If that’s the case, then his primary offensive skill is going to decrement. And that’s a real concern because then he’s left with only his power, which is a skill that is prone to vary or cluster.
Yeah, but in theory, no one is likely to be able to hit as well or draw walks as well as they face better pitching, therefore, everyone is worse, making Swisher relatively the same.
No. Because that assumes hitters on the whole have the same skill set at the plate.
They don’t. Each hitter has varied skill sets.
And if the pitching is systematically different in the playoffs, then this is going to disproportionately hurt hitters with certain skills sets more than others.
Nick Swisher, 2009:
vs. Power – .269/.391/.558 (.948)
vs. avg.P/F – .237/.371/.485 (.855)
vs. Finesse – .262/.350/.476 (.826)
Nick Swisher draws walks and hits homers against all types of pitchers. Against walk-prone pitchers, against walk-averse pitchers, against everyone.
vs. Fly Ball – .231/.354/.500 (.854)
vs. avg.F/G – .225/.340/.414 (.754)
vs. GrndBall – .319/.450/.672 (1.122)
What’s interesting is, Swisher has murdered groundball pitchers, probably due to his uppercut swing. Joe Saunders is a groundball pitcher. I’ll take Swish in Game 6, thank you very much.
Those statistics aren’t particularly relevant to the argument because it’s a conceptual point more than it is an empirical one.
And the underlying constructs for what what a “finesse” pitcher is defined as for instance aren’t particularly clear and aren’t necessarily valid.
And I wasn’t referring to the general catgories of “finesse” and “power” as it was.
I was referring to pitchers with better control/ command. Those pitchers could be “power,” finesse, fly ball, ground ball, whatever. The relevant quality is their command.
Drawing walks is not completely in the control of the hitter. It is partially up to him. But even more so up to the pitcher.
It stands to reason that if pitchers are systmatically less likely to walk a hitter it will decrement one of Swisher’s primary assets and will hurt his ability to get on base more than it would a player who may generate more of his OBP through his batting average, for instance.
Okay I ran the numbers.
Swisher vs Pitchers:
ERA + 110 (278 PA) or better: 224/352/461/812
ERA + 95-110 (110 PA): 234/327/404/731
ERA + 95 or less (204 PA): 270/405/546/951
Overall (607 PA): 249/371/498/869
Oddly Swisher struggles against the middle set of pitchers. The rest is expected, and I’ll take the OPS+ of 812 vs top end.
*note there 15 PA not accounted for in the ERA+
You are still failing to see CB’s point and I’m not about to makes his argument again which, by the way, is clear and concise. Commendable job, CB, I believe you are on to something.
Agree.
Actually I think you’re missing my point, if we look at Swisher’s numbers this season he’s able to maintain a strong walk rate against top notch pitching, which CB is saying this top notch playoff pitching will make it harder for Swisher to walk. The numbers we have for the season show he should still be able to walk, unless all of those pitchers have good ERAs and bad walk rates (seems unlikely), thus I’m taking a good ERA as a proxy for being a good pitcher, thus having better control & command.
However Swisher does perform poorer to good & great pitching, which is to be expected, but when I did this against someone like Pujols, he mashed everyone. Swisher’s avg is the big drop as his OBP against 110+ pitchers is ~130 pts above his avg.
I could do this looking at his walk rate vs the best pitchers at not walking people, but we don’t have an easy benchmarked BB/9 rating to work with.
how is that irrevelant, its perfectly relevant. playing a bench player over your starter is what we are discussing here.
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-647326
Serious question – How do you do that? Post a link and make it go to EXACTLY where you want on the page?
The date and time on each post right under the poster name will link to that exact post.
See the date and time line under your name there?
It’s an HMTL anchorpoint. Click on it, and the thread begins at your comment. Copy the link and paste it to use that link in your comment.
Use the reply button.
Damn, I really wish Game 6 was tonight.
Agreed, the suspense sucks.
I’m looking for Swisher to get one big hit tomorrow. His first hit of the post season was a RBI double to give the Yanks the lead in game 1 against the Twins. I can see him getting the offense going early.
Good thing is (and there are a lot of good things), 8 out of the 9 guys in the lineup have hit a lot of balls hard the last couple games.
If the weather cooperates, Lackey won’t start another game. Jered Weaver would start game 7 on the road, after pitching an inning last night. I’m sure Kazmir is dead to Scioscia (unfortunately).
The Yankees faced the Angels two best pitchers in Anaheim, and almost won both games. No one in the right mind would argue the Angels are better.
Sorry to stray a bit off topic there at the end, but I needed a sane place to vent a little.
Yesterday was just a slight speedbump. This shit is still in the bag.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related (safe)
I love your confidence. Everyone on these blogs is so damn negative. You’d think everyone forgot that this is the best team in the game.
Like in the regular season, the Yanks are in every game. they still haven’t had a loss where they were legitimately beaten start to finish.
The bats are waking up, the defense has been solid, and the two best pitching options are going on full rest at home, with the platoon advantage. No more fucking rally monkey. Oh yeah, and Molina won’t be starting. There are way too many things going NYY’s way.
Everyone is down on saunders, but he scares me. he seems to always pitch well against us. we need to get into that bullpen of theirs early
In 5 career starts against the Yanks, he has an ERA of 6.28, and has allowed: .302/.362/.517 (.879 ops).
I don’t believe that includes his last start.
Righties hit him very hard. Our lefties hit lefties pretty well. The odds of him having another start as good as his last one are slim.
This season, batters leading off an inning against him are OPSing .921.
He’s worse at night than he is in the day, worse in an open air stadium than a dome (for whatever that’s worth).
My guess is that he’s a relative non-factor in game 6. I think we have another slugfest on our hands, with the game being decided by the bullpens.
You know what is a lot of fun…small sample sizes!
Did you know that captain clutch (Derek Jeter) from the 7th inning on in the postseason is 0-10 with 3 K’s and 4 walks (Two of which were intentional with a man on second base and less than 2 outs)
Did you know that Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia are not big time players. They just pad their stats in the regular season
Did you know that Josh Beckett and David Ortiz are the two most clutch postseason performers of all time. Just look at their stats in the last two years for proof
Did you know that Steve Phillips ruined his marriage to have an affair with a troll (This one is true)
Go Yanks!
Did you know that Steve Phillips ruined his marriage to have an affair with a troll
This is the biggest disgrace of all time. I mean, come on Steve
Seriously, that chick looks like Al from Happy Days.. AWFUL…
Sometimes you just have to chalk it up to the pitcher
Really, even the (RAB) hated Melky Cabarera was getting base hits…so why cant Swisher?
Swisher is simply off his game.
No he’s not, as his avg clearly shows he is a terrible hitter. In the playoffs against good pitching a terrible hitter has a good chance to be even worse
I actually don’t hate swisher that much, his attitude has been just what this team needed for years…but when people make claims that he is a borderline All Star cause he get a lot of walks, its annoying
I actually don’t hate swisher that much, his attitude has been just what this team needed for years…but when people make claims that he is a
borderline All Starbad player cause heget a lot of walks,hits .249 with 29 hr and 89 rbi and a 126 ops+ hitting IN THE BOTTOM THIRD OF THE LINEUP while playing above average defense, its even more annoying“playing above average defense”
Are you serious?
Who have you been watching? How many times have they replaced him for defend?
Swisher is a lot of good things a above average defender is not one of them.
-1.6 uzr/150. so barely below average.
plus, those who had lower averages than nick swisher:
grady sizemore
curtis granderson
alex rios
dan uggla
alfonso soriano
bj upton
carlos pena
players who didn’t hit above 255 but higher than swisher’s 249:
jimmy rollins
ian kinsler
jermaine dye
russel branyon
the only people who came close to swisher’s production were russ branyon and carlos pena.
We are discussing defend so don’t mix production into it. There is a big difference between “above average defender” and “barely below average defender”.
I look at uzr scale and i didn’t think it was good, but then I used something called memory. And from what i saw this season Swisher made the easy plays look hard the hard plays forget with a few exception.
please don’t give me your subjective my eyes saw it themselves.
Forget subjective look at your little UZR charts that only backs what I saw a
BELOW AVERAGE DEFENDER.
Who have you been watching? How many times have they replaced him for defend?
That doesn’t mean he’s bad, it just means they have someone who’s better.
I agree 29 hr and 89 rbi is nice, especially from the bottom of the order, but I can easily counter that his rbi’s are function of being in a great offense…but there is no denying the production was nice.
His OPS is a function of walking all the time, which is good. Walking is not a bad thing, and I am not advocating the opposite. However, to a degree you can pile up walks by being extra selective, yes it’s a skill, but many times it’s a function of the situation/pitcher. In swisher’s case his .245 avg does tell an important part of the story, he cant hit the ball, and no matter how you slice it being able to hit is the most important thing a batter does (and yes you can argue that getting on base no matter what is the most important, but most hitters go to the plate with the intent to get a hit, a walk is a secondary bonus).
Swisher had about 125 hits year, 30 of which were homers…that only 100 hits the rest of the year…that not real good, with the game on the line and all you need is a stinking single a marginal slugger who strikes out more than he hits is not what you want….I just think he is vastly over-rated…just my opinion
This is Swisher:
The Little Girl With A Curl
There was a little girl who had a little curl
Right in the middle of her forehead;
When she was good, she was very, very good,
And when she was bad she was horrid.
The last line is why he is not “Borderline great” we seen him have slump like this during the season joe sits him down for a few days and he comes out of it. The other option are no where near as good when Swisher is on so they may have to let it play out a little longer. But another night like last night and a change might be in order.
another night like last night has happened 5 times already. its getting late early
Actually..8 times
“Borderline great” “above average defense”
I like Nick Swisher he brings a lot to this team on and off the field, but can someone please tell when he became Willie Mays because I missed that game.
He’s basically average in RF. This year, he was a tiny bit below average. In his career, he’s been solidly above average. He looks clumsy. He’s a goof. This does not mean, however, that he is a bad defender. He has decent range, gets decent jumps and has a solid if unspectacular arm.
He is not gardner out there. He gets replaced sometiems because the Yankees have superior defenders available. Flip that around to offense and do the Yankees have a superior hitter available? No, they do not. Swisher > Gardner. Swisher >> Hairston.
I agree.
I just think that in the haste to prove a point some people have jumped off the old RAB bridge. LOL
PS- CB above and Pasqua below make excellent points.
I generally don’t consider a guy’s personality when judging their performance, but I can’t help but wonder if a very excitable Nick Swisher is just not a good match for the spotlight of the playoffs. He appears way off of his game; swinging out of his shoes, getting (too) aggressive early in the count, and generally “trying to do too much” (and, yes, I know it’s impossible to quantify that). I’ve appreciated the enthusiasm and the balls-to-the-wall style that he’s exhibited, but it pains me to see him in this state.
I think there is truth to this. But a good player like Swish should come around. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if guys like Gardner (rookie) or Hairston (1st playoff experience) were just as jumpy.
Yup. I thought the opposite would be true as well. That his attitude would make him relaxed and productive in this setting, not hyperactive and stressed. That’s why I think he should sit. He’s in a very bad place.