Comments on: Yanks have the best worst hitter in the playoffs http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/ A New York Yankees Blog Mon, 28 May 2012 15:27:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: How were the Yankees assembled? | River Avenue Blues http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-647185 How were the Yankees assembled? | River Avenue Blues Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:31:04 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-647185 [...] He brings some interesting ideas to the table, and some of them I’ve already riffed on, like the best worst hitters in the playoffs. Today he goes over how the Philadelphia Phillies were assembled. The obvious next step is to see [...] [...] He brings some interesting ideas to the table, and some of them I’ve already riffed on, like the best worst hitters in the playoffs. Today he goes over how the Philadelphia Phillies were assembled. The obvious next step is to see [...]

]]> By: Doug http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614462 Doug Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:34:52 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614462 i agree with you rocky, but the pro-molina camp will argue that there is "solid evidence that how Burnett pitches correlates to who is catching him." and they'll throw ERA and WHIP stats at you. i agree with you rocky, but the pro-molina camp will argue that there is “solid evidence that how Burnett pitches correlates to who is catching him.” and they’ll throw ERA and WHIP stats at you.

]]> By: Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614454 Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:24:03 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614454 From good friend CB from lohud: CB October 7th, 2009 at 10:05 am “Rob Neyer has a good take on the Posada Benching: “Essentially, Girardi has to get inside Burnett’s head. And if he thinks that Burnett might give up even a quarter of a run more with Posada catching, then Molina’s the better choice. Because as well as Posada hits and as poorly as Molina hits, the difference between them within a particular game is so small, it defies measurement.” Neyer is off on this one. For every plate appearance, Posada generates 0.1 runs more than Molina does. 0.1 runs more. That is an enormous difference. For every 4 at pats Posada generates 0.4 runs more than Molina. So in order for this move to make sense, you’d have to be very confident that Molina will shave off close to half a run off burnett’s runs allowed for a game. And there’s no solid evidence that how Burnett pitches is correlates to who is catching him. Burnett very well could go out and throw a shut out in game 2 or 3. That wouldn’t be a surprise and I really hope that happens. But he could go out and give up 5-6 runs. That wouldn’t be a surprise. Who is catching him makes no difference. What we do know with much more confidence is that with Molina getting 3-4 at bats instead of Posada the yanks will be in a relative hole of -0.3 to -0.4 runs. That is a huge loss. So even if molina did shave off a quarter run from Burnett’s runs allowed as Neyer is saying (which there is no evidence to support) the yankees would still be worse off. People are underestimating how enormous the gap at the plate is between these two players. Neyer is doing the same. From good friend CB from lohud:

CB
October 7th, 2009 at 10:05 am
“Rob Neyer has a good take on the Posada Benching:

“Essentially, Girardi has to get inside Burnett’s head. And if he thinks that Burnett might give up even a quarter of a run more with Posada catching, then Molina’s the better choice. Because as well as Posada hits and as poorly as Molina hits, the difference between them within a particular game is so small, it defies measurement.”

Neyer is off on this one.

For every plate appearance, Posada generates 0.1 runs more than Molina does. 0.1 runs more.

That is an enormous difference.

For every 4 at pats Posada generates 0.4 runs more than Molina.

So in order for this move to make sense, you’d have to be very confident that Molina will shave off close to half a run off burnett’s runs allowed for a game.

And there’s no solid evidence that how Burnett pitches is correlates to who is catching him.

Burnett very well could go out and throw a shut out in game 2 or 3. That wouldn’t be a surprise and I really hope that happens. But he could go out and give up 5-6 runs. That wouldn’t be a surprise. Who is catching him makes no difference.

What we do know with much more confidence is that with Molina getting 3-4 at bats instead of Posada the yanks will be in a relative hole of -0.3 to -0.4 runs.

That is a huge loss. So even if molina did shave off a quarter run from Burnett’s runs allowed as Neyer is saying (which there is no evidence to support) the yankees would still be worse off.

People are underestimating how enormous the gap at the plate is between these two players. Neyer is doing the same.

]]> By: Doug http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614433 Doug Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:55:13 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614433 with AJ pitching well, no way girardi takes out molina. and gardenhire's too smart to be tricked by the on-deck thing. molina's a problem with AJ pitching well, no way girardi takes out molina. and gardenhire’s too smart to be tricked by the on-deck thing.

molina’s a problem

]]> By: Chris http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614429 Chris Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:53:33 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614429 You pinch hit Posada for Molina in that case. I believe that's what Girardi would do. Or you have Posada stand in the on-deck circle warming up during Melky's at bat. Then they pitch to Melky. Either way, Molina isn't a problem. You pinch hit Posada for Molina in that case. I believe that’s what Girardi would do.

Or you have Posada stand in the on-deck circle warming up during Melky’s at bat. Then they pitch to Melky.

Either way, Molina isn’t a problem.

]]> By: Lucky http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614426 Lucky Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:50:12 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614426 If you are going to count Varitek as the Sox best worst hitter, then Molina has to make your list for NYY. Molina will catch more than Varitek in Oct. Alex Gonzalez is the Sox best worst hitter (of the starters). Varitek is not going to catch Beckett. If you are going to count Varitek as the Sox best worst hitter, then Molina has to make your list for NYY. Molina will catch more than Varitek in Oct. Alex Gonzalez is the Sox best worst hitter (of the starters).

Varitek is not going to catch Beckett.

]]> By: Doug http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614424 Doug Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:47:46 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614424 Scenario: Yanks are up 4-1 in the 5th, 2nd and 3rd, 2-out, Melky coming up. Now you know what's going to happen...Melky gets intentionally walked to bring up Molina. Molina more than likely makes an out and the Yanks lose a chance to break the game open. I'd say that's pretty meaningful. The fact that Molina is there will likely take the bat out of Melky's hands at least once a game. Kinda important in my eyes. Scenario:
Yanks are up 4-1 in the 5th, 2nd and 3rd, 2-out, Melky coming up. Now you know what’s going to happen…Melky gets intentionally walked to bring up Molina. Molina more than likely makes an out and the Yanks lose a chance to break the game open. I’d say that’s pretty meaningful.

The fact that Molina is there will likely take the bat out of Melky’s hands at least once a game. Kinda important in my eyes.

]]> By: Rob in CT http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614422 Rob in CT Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:46:16 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614422 The Yankees have the worst worst hitter in the playoffs: Jose Molina. I think this is madness, but at this point I can only hope that Jose's defense and work-with-Burnettness makes up for it. The Yankees have the worst worst hitter in the playoffs: Jose Molina. I think this is madness, but at this point I can only hope that Jose’s defense and work-with-Burnettness makes up for it.

]]> By: Mike Pop http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614416 Mike Pop Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:42:53 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614416 In a weird way, I kind of enjoyed it. In a weird way, I kind of enjoyed it.

]]> By: Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) http://riveraveblues.com/2009/10/yanks-have-the-best-worst-hitter-in-the-playoffs-18075/#comment-614415 Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:42:45 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=18075#comment-614415 In a five game series there are too many variables, and I don't like the idea of putting a worse team on the field because of a small sample of statistics that can be and have been) rationalized and debunked in many ways. I don't like the move. But if Molina has a good game all is forgiven. In a five game series there are too many variables, and I don’t like the idea of putting a worse team on the field because of a small sample of statistics that can be and have been) rationalized and debunked in many ways. I don’t like the move.

But if Molina has a good game all is forgiven.

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