Comments on: Burnett’s history of pitching on three days’ rest

By: With World Series win on line, A.J. Burnett takes early exit | Sports News Images and Videos

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:41:23 +0000

[...] Phillies in his big Game 2 win last Thursday and was the owner of a three days rest record that was a bit reassuring to Yankees fans. But neither was enough to guarantee great command or a compliant Phillies lineup the next time [...]

By: Mark Stevens

Mark Stevens — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 02:37:39 +0000

Good job, all you clowns. Gaudin couldn’t possibly have done worse than this tonight. And AJ would be Fresh to pitch in front of the home crowd on normal rest.

By: World Series Game Five: Yankees @ Phillies | River Avenue Blues

World Series Game Five: Yankees @ Phillies | River Avenue Blues — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:01:08 +0000

[...] Rock, Arkansas, will take the mound on three day’s rest for the first time as a Yank, and as history shows, he’s been pretty good in those spots in the past. Lee, originally from Benton, Arkansas, is [...]

By: justin

justin — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:07:05 +0000

Everyone in this thread is very focused on the 3-days rest thing. What seems to be a commonality is that it is an x-factor and decidedly unpredictable…but A.J. himself is exactly the same way. I think we have to drop the variable from the argument because the sample size is too small and the pitcher too multifarious. We have no idea if we’ll get good A.J. or bad A.J. tonight but if you run Gaudin’s numbers against the Phillies hitters against his over their careers I think you’ll find that Burnett has been much more successful against this Phillies team. He certainly has more experience against them.

Here are Burnett’s numbers vs the Phillies big hitters:

Jimmy Rollins: 11 for 43 1HR 12K’s
Ryan Howard: 2 for 12 2HR’s 6K’s
Chase Utley: 6 for 21 1HR 7K’s
Jayson Werth: 1 for 7 1HR 3K’s
Raul Ibanez: 4 for 15 0HR 4K’s

Now Gaudin’s:

J-Roll: O for 1
Howard: O for 1
Chase Utley: 1 for 1
Jayson Werth: 0 for 1
Raul Ibanez: 7 for 18 1 HR 5K’s

Here are Gaudin and Burnett’s numbers against righties and lefties in 09′

Burnett vs LHB: .217/.310/.343
Burnett vs RHB: .282/.366/.450

Gaudin vs LHB: .296/.408/.415
Gaudin vs RHB: .224/.293/.380

Seeing as almost all of the Phillies’ power is left-handed Gaudin’s triple-slash numbers alone should be enough to keep him off of the rubber in this series except as a ROOGY. If that wasn’t enough the fact that the Phillies hitters have almost no experience against him except Ibanez (whose numbers indicate ownage) should push it over the bring.

A.J.’s numbers against righties certainly aren’t pretty but the major threat of Jayson Werth has not had much success against him albeit in a small sample size. The fact is A.J. on any days rest matches up against this Phillies team better than Chad Gaudin. This is what Girardi is most-likely banking on and it’s really all we should be looking at.

If this wasn’t convincing enough Replacement Level Yankees Blog has run the simulations through the computer and you can check out the outcomes there. They really do some great statistical work.

Let’s hope that A.J. comes up big and gets this done. It would be very exciting to go to sleep as World Champions.

By: justin

justin — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:30:40 +0000

You don’t remember the inside-the-park-gritty-promise-to-young-cancer-patient home-run?!?!?! IT WAS SO GRITTY!!!

By: justin

justin — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:24:11 +0000

You don’t take probable losses in the world series…especially when you have a chance to close it out. In a short-series you go for the jugular…during the regular season you have a point.

By: justin

justin — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:21:58 +0000

To his credit Jim Duquette as well as all the people on XM Radio have echoed these sentiments. It’s the morons who make it on television that suck at life.

By: Keanu Reeves

Keanu Reeves — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:27:37 +0000

Yes.

I should have clarified that in my post obviously. You use 5 starters and give rest in the regular season so that when the postseason comes along, you can go balls to the wall.

So Tank I get your point, but what UWS said is more what I was going for.

And yes, if Wang hadn’t fallen into a black hole this team would be…well…it just wouldn’t be fair lol.

By: UWS

UWS — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:09:39 +0000

…Andy Pettitte…

By: UWS

UWS — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:09:13 +0000

But the key point is that there are no more games to think ahead to. This is it. The big one. For ALL the marbles. That’s why the pitchers are going on 3 days’ rest, and why Mariano has pitched so much. There is nothing left to pace yourself for.