Nov
05

Buster Olney thinks Andy Pettitte is a good fit for the 2010 Yankees

By

On the heels of his gritty and gutty and playing the game the right wayeyey performance in Game Six of the World Series, Buster Olney thinks it’s a lock that the Yankees will offer Andy Pettitte arbitration this offseason. Pettitte’s base salary was just $5.5M in 2009, but he took home over $10M thanks to incentives, so that’s what a potential arbitration case will be based on.

Pettitte projects as a Type-B free agent, but he may creep up into Type-A status when the official rankings come out because he’s right at the cutoff.  I thought the Yanks should offer Andy arbitration last year (they didn’t), and I definitely think they should do so again this year.

Categories : Asides

165 Comments»

  1. pat says:

    Is the arbitration figure based on his base salary or the one with all the appearance clauses tacked on at the end?

  2. AndrewYF says:

    Andy Pettitte has pitched about 200 innings the past three years.

    How the hell is he a Type B free agent?

    • Mike bk says:

      because of his bad 2nd half last year. it is based on the last two years. he is the 1st listed as a type b according to the projections. doesnt matter A or B because if the yanks are going to offer he will accept cause i dont see him wanting to go elsewhere.

  3. Frank says:

    Speaking of arbitration, Olney also mentioned this morning he’s heard from GM’s that between 70-100 arbitration eligible players will be cut loose by smaller market teams, thus creating a much deeper FA pool. He mentioned Garrett Atkins and Jeremy Hermida as examples.

    • Hermida would be a good bench option.

      • I’m down with that. Good insurance, too, if we bring back Damon and he starts to decay more rapidly than we anticipated.

        I want to bring back both Damon and Matsui on 1+1 deals, but it would certainly be nice to have a starting-caliber backup OF at the ready behind them, if we can find one that’s not too costly. Hermida might be just that… if he’s willing to take on a bench role (that has the potential to be more…)

        • Yeah, I could get on board with that. Hermida’s drop in power the last two seasons leaves a bit to be desired, though. His fielding is also pretty crappy. However, if he’s cheap, I think he’s a good bench option. He’s also still relatively young so there’s still room to grow. Bottom line, I’d like Hermida on the bench of he’s cut loose.

      • Mike bk says:

        his fielding isnt great, but he does handle righties well so maybe a platoon in LF with Hairston?

        • theyankeewarrior says:

          The Yankees can use Swisher’s ’09 season as an example to entice Hermida if needed. The Yankees are a winning team that leans on a ton of over-used muscles, arms, backs and elbows. Someone will go down for some time next year. He will be in the lineup PLENTYYY

      • Brian Ewart says:

        Heyman said Hermida was acquired by the Sox on Twitter.

  4. mryankee says:

    I would not mind AP back next year just figure what to do with Joba and then who else to add via f/a or trade.

  5. Cam says:

    This begs the question as to what they’re going to do with Hughes next year. If the Yanks sign Pettitte, which I think they should do, and Joba is back in the rotation, it does leave a spot left for Hughes. But many things I’ve read seem to point to the fact that the Yanks want to try and sign another veteran, say Lackey (or a Lackey type) to fill the last spot. Is it possible that they start Hughes in AAA again if they sign someone else? Then do they try and sign Wang to a minor league deal? It’s just interesting to think about.

    • whozat says:

      A) There are no “Lackey” types outside of Lackey.
      B) He’s over 30 and has had injury issues
      C) He wants AJ money at least, and there are teams that’ll give it to him
      D) Is that speculation from news outlets who are just going on “he’s the biggest name, and the yanks have the most dollars,” or do they actually have legit sources?

      There’s no point in the Yanks signing lackey. He’s aging, they can have Hughes, Joba and Kennedy all jockeying for roster spots with the potential to have Wang come back midseason, Gaudin as a solid fallback at the back-end, and McAllister trying to push his way into consideration for the back end as well. And Nova.

    • But many things I’ve read seem to point to the fact that the Yanks want to try and sign another veteran, say Lackey (or a Lackey type) to fill the last spot.

      Show them to me. Most of the people who have written this have pre-existing B-Jobber agendas.

      The Yankee braintrust has been adamant about both Joba and Hughes being in the rotation for 2010. You have to assume our opening day rotation will be CC-AJ-Andy-Joba-Hughes. I don’t anticipate adding any starting pitcher of great substance (other than Aroldis Chapman.)

    • Wang probably won’t be ready any earlier than September so he’s essentially a non-factor. I think the only way they’ll sign someone else is if Pettitte retires. Even then, I don’t think it’ll be anyone big and they’ll roll with Joba and Hughes in the rotation with CC, A.J., and whomever else.

      • Lanny says:

        You cannot rely on Wang for the rotation. If hes signed its strictly for depth and 2011.

        • Cam says:

          Right, obviously Wang is out as an immediate option, but personally I still think they should sign him to a minor league deal to get him ready for later. And I can’t go point to specific things I’ve read because they pop up here and there is posts from sports writer or rumors on MLBTR. It’s just more of a interesting thing to have to think about.

  6. Will says:

    I would love for Andy to come back, but it seems quite possible that Andy will retire.

    Any thoughts on who we should target if Andy retires?

    Lackey seems too expensive, Harden/Sheets/Duscherer/Bedard are injury risks and I doubt that Cashman would trade top prospects for Halladay or Felix.

  7. Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

    We put the screws to Andy last year (stating publicly that he wouldn’t consider any other team =/= good bargaining position. I suspect he understands this now). He rewarded us with EXACTLY what we needed. My view is going forward, we should be giving him generous 1 year contracts UNTIL either A) he retires, or B) we see PROOF that he’s done. Not leading indicators, not bad signs, not gee, he’s getting old. Proof. Like 6+ season ERA and demoted to the bullpen in the postseason. We can and should overpay him for his last season, whenever it comes. We can afford it, and he’s given us a lot, and repeatedly faced fairly public doubt from the team. (Trade threats in ’98, lack of interest in ’03 free agency, this year’s contract) He’s proven them wrong repeatedly, and he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like eventually paying 6-10M too much for a bad year in the future is going to cripple us. Compared to how many years Jeter and Arod are going to end up overpaid for (I expect great things the next few years from these guys especially if they keep the conditioning up, but both will end up on 20M+ in their early to mid forties)

  8. Raf says:

    will Hughes have a similar innings limit that Joba had this year? if so resigning Pettitte will be a wise move to give the rotation another guy who can give you 200 innings for the year.

    • JobaWockeeZ says:

      Doubt it. The Verducci “rule” says the you can pitch 30 innings more form your previous career high. Hughes pitched 150 or so innings before in a year if I recall so he should be all good to go.

      But that was a few years ago so the Yankees might be cautious with him again. Who knows. But I extremely doubt it will go to the point like what they did to Joba this season.

      • The Three Amigos says:

        Isn’t the Verducci Rule 30 increase from the previous year? I believe the Yanks added their own twist with Joba and made it from previous career high, but either way there is no way Hughes throws 180 innings next year.

        I would be shocked if he threw more then 160 not including playoffs.

        • JobaWockeeZ says:

          No it’s career high.

          • Hughes will be a very interesting test case of the Verducci rule.

            Verducci uses previous career high-water mark for the baseline, which in Hughes’s case is 146 IP. The problem is, that 146 IP is now three full years in the past. I bet we take a more hybrid approach and give him a baseline smaller than his three-year-old baseline would indicate, but larger than his 2009 total would indicate.

            Something like a 150-160 IP limit is my guess.

            • The Three Amigos says:

              BP and Fangraphs both say its a more then 30 increase year over year…

              http://www.baseballprospectus......cci+effect

              Unless my brain still isnt working from being overtired… isnt this an increase over the last years mark…?

              • Chris says:

                The rule can be defined by BP however they want. The key is how the Yankees define it. They’ve stated with Joba that it was based of a career high, not previous year. For both Hughes and Joba that would be 2006. There may be some adjustments to the limit because it was a few years ago, but I wouldn’t expect much change.

              • Verducci himself, emphasis mine:

                I call it the Year After Effect. Here’s the way I track it: Find major league pitchers 25-and-under who broke the 30-inning rule. In some cases a pitcher’s innings the previous season may have been artificially depressed, such as by injury, so I’ll use his professional high for the baseline, or, in the case of a recent draftee like Kennedy, his college workload. All innings count (minors, majors, postseason).

                http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ducci.YAE/

                Hughes’s 2007 and 2008 workloads were artificially depressed by injury, and his 2009 workload was artificially depressed by the move to the bullpen.

                Like I said, he’s kinda the perfect test case. It’s supposed to be the immediately prior year, but Verducci allows for wiggle room if that year comes with an asterisk. How much wiggle room, though? Three years seems like a lot.

      • Hughes is kinda removed from that 150, though, so I can see him being back on a limit of around 160-170. Chamberlain will probably be around 180 or so, so I don’t think the cap will hurt the rotation:

        CC–200-220 IP
        AJ–190-200 IP
        Andy–190-200 IP
        Joba–170-180 IP
        Hughes–160-170 IP

        That’d be mighty fine.

    • Rod says:

      Hughes would probably be similar to Joba. While he has gotten up to 146 IP in a year, that was in 2006. While they could theoretically get him well into the 180 range, I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind him down in the 150-160 range during the regular season.

  9. Coach6423 says:

    no chat???

  10. mryankee says:

    why are we talking low risk low money types. Are the Yankees in financial difficulty all of a sudden? I think as always they have money and they will spend it be Chapman,Holliday,Lackey. You don’s follow up a worl series with ritation questions. CC-Solid AJ-Pretty solid AP-Solid if he returns but he will be 38 Joba-we hope solid and Phil-we hope solid. That rotation does pose some questions, if you can make a move on Hallday depending on what is asked for then I think you do it-Remeber the Sox are going to do something ne it Adrian Gonzalez or Hallday. I dont like the idea of facing a Beckett-Lester-Halladay rotation with the present pitchers.

    • Coach6423 says:

      HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    • That’s drastically overcommitting ourselves. We have quality young talent coming up through the pipeline at multiple spots and our ML talent is still producing well.

      We don’t need a massive wave of expensive reinforcements. This team is the balls as presently constructed. Reup the FA vets to short term deals, extend Jeter, and let the kids in Trenton develop.

      • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

        +28-40

      • mryankee says:

        I did not suggest massive FA moves. I stated that you cannot stand pat and hope to repeat. If the sox do get Halladay that owuld make their rotation very formidable. I dont understand where all the Halladay haters come from. Does he have injury issues? non. Does he have durability issues? no. He has pitched and dominated the AL east or years including the Yankees. I know to get him would be expenseive but if you could get him for something relatively reasonable. I sure as hell would like CC-AJ-HALLADAY-AP-JOBA-HUGHES. Especially if your talking innings limits with Hughes.

        • Rod says:

          I don’t think the Sox have enough pieces in their system to get Hallday or Felix no matter what their fanbase thinks.

          • Girardi out to the mound says:

            It is the same thing every year for the Red Sox. Everyone in the media says they are going to sign this guy or trade for that guy, and at the end of the day they do not end up with any of them.

            When was the last time the Red Sox traded for or signed one of those big name players they are always rumored to be connected to?

            • Mike Pop says:

              tsjc compared their offseason to Macbeth I believe. It was pretty funny.

              I didn’t bother looking for it couldn’t find it though.

        • Mike Pop says:

          The Yankees do not need him though.

          The Sox need him or Felix or Gonzalez much more than the Yankees need anything drastic.

          Chapman should be the #1 target in my opinion, and leave it at that.

          • mryankee says:

            I disagree a rotation of Beckett-Lester-Felix/Halladay. I am sorry but anoy of those three is pretty tough to beat.All I am saying is you dont close the door to any deal because you won. This if nothing else will uel other teams to be more agressive. So if a deal can be made that is bold but not farm system busting you have to be open minded.

            • Mike Pop says:

              I never said that they wouldn’t be great with a Felix or Halladay added to their rotation.

              What I said was they need a big improvement much more than the Yankees do.

            • Tampa Yankee says:

              Yes that would be tough to beat but the Angels beat 2 of the 3 and we beat the Angels and then won the WS so….

              #28 in 2010 BITCHES!!!!

            • I disagree a rotation of Beckett-Lester-Felix/Halladay. I am sorry but anoy of those three is pretty tough to beat

              You also thought the Tigers, Angels, and Phillies would be tough to beat.

              You’re frequently wrong. Please remember that fact before you start to advocate for drastic changes.

              • pete says:

                the thing about a beckett-lester-felix/halladay rotation is that it would probably mean a pedroia/ellsbury/casey kelly-less team. They’d still be sick, don’t get me wrong, but their offense would suffer greatly, and they’d have to overpay for somebody like holliday to shore it up a bit, and then they’d be both financially crippled from the inevitable contracts they’d have to sign to keep felix, lestah, youkilis, etc, and devoid of any young talent (thus out of of the joe mauer race). I don’t see it happening. I do, however, see Theo being more aggressive in the FA market this offseason, after the success of Cashman’s moves. Unfortunately for him, the market is not even close to what it was last year.
                My bet: Sox end up getting (and overpaying for) Holliday and Lackey this offseason on FA deals.

        • Keanu Reeves says:

          I don’t think there are any Halladay haters. Anybody would love to have him in the rotation. I’m against giving up the farm for him (because you know the price will be higher for the Yanks) then having to pay him again if you want to keep him for 2010.

        • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

          The issue with Halladay is that we would have to give up the ENTIRE farm system, starting with Montero, to get him. He’s 32. IF we were only talking a big money, max 4yr free agent deal, people here would be on that like white on rice.

          You’ve listed a 6 man starting rotation. Would this be nice? yes. given that the team as constructed is unbelievably good, adding only makes sense if it A) doesn’t bankrupt the farm system and B) doesn’t kill our $$$ for years to come.

          This team was not the best team in baseball this year. It was the best team in baseball this year BY A HUGE MARGIN. Assuming this team regresses to the mean, we have more injuries, and the SOX add and add and add, we are still the best team, just by a smaller margin.

        • I did not suggest massive FA moves.

          Yes you did.

          I stated that you cannot stand pat and hope to repeat.

          A) That’s not necessarily true; if your team is good enough (and ours probably is), you most certainly can stand pat and repeat.
          B) There are smarter ways of improving (i.e. not standing pat) other than signing two/three new massive FA contracts and trading for another frontline starter, as you advocated for. You’re engaging in false dichotomy. Adding, say, Justin Duchscherer and Jeremy Hermida to this core group would be improving without the massive retooling you suggest.

          If the sox do get Halladay that owuld make their rotation very formidable.

          It would also weaken their team, as he would cost them prospects. Furthermore, the Sox are deeply flawed; they’re not of great concern at the moment. No need to overreact to them yet.

          I dont understand where all the Halladay haters come from. Does he have injury issues? non. Does he have durability issues? no. He has pitched and dominated the AL east or years including the Yankees.

          We don’t hate him. We just don’t NEED him. This World Series should have proved that to you.

          Let me say that again.

          WE DON’T HATE HIM. WE JUST DON’T NEED HIM. THIS WORLD SERIES SHOULD HAVE PROVED THAT TO YOU.

          Furthermore, the cost/benefit analysis says trading for Halladay is a bad idea on multiple levels. Not necessary. Stop inventing problems that aren’t there.

          I know to get him would be expenseive but if you could get him for something relatively reasonable.

          You can’t.

          I sure as hell would like CC-AJ-HALLADAY-AP-JOBA-HUGHES. Especially if your talking innings limits with Hughes.

          I’d like that too, but I’m quite certain that, since CC-AJ-AP-Joba-Hughes-Kennedy is more than sufficient, I’d rather have the prospects it took to get Halladay than Halladay himself. It’s an unnecessary, overkill move that needlessly weakens our farm and strengthens the position of the Jays to boot. Pass.

      • Jackson says:

        This. Not to mention, as much as some people want to believe, the cash isn’t unlimited. The Yankees aren’t going to run their payroll up 240 million to sign Lackey and Holliday because there are question marks with the 5th starter spot.

      • Keanu Reeves says:

        Agreed. The staff is still going to be one of the best next year. Then Z-Mac, Nova and all the others get another year to develop.

        This isn’t like last year when we knew the pitching had to be fixed and fixed now. This staff just won number 27 baby!

        • mryankee says:

          Correct but the questions I have will this staff be good enough next year? with other teams improving.

          • Mike Pop says:

            Joba and Hughes are bound to improve.

            AJ and CC might have World Series hangovers…

            But I’m very confident in the Yankees. Biggest concern is health and durability.

          • Keanu Reeves says:

            I think yes. I really expect a big year out of Joba next year.

            And I don’t see many teams improving that much. The only pitcher on the Sox staff that scares me is Lester. And I really don’t think their going to be able to add Halladay or Felix.

            • TheLastClown says:

              I hope they add Halladay. Overpay in prospects to just lose him after one run.

              Felix they’d get a little more bang from the proverbial buck, as they’d be able to ride him through ’10 & ’11, but he’s going to want to test the FA market even more than Halladay.

              So if they can give up Buchholz/Westmoreland/Kelly/etc…for one pitcher, while we do nothing of the kind, bringing in this last crop of CC/AJ/Teix/Swish & keeping/developing our young talent, we’ve got even more of a leg up on the Sox.

              Maybe they’d have a chance of beating us a bit more, say, during 3 games a year, but you’re looking at a dynasty re-born.

          • JobaWockeeZ says:

            Why do you think the Red Sox are drastically going ti improve?

            The owner has said at the trade deadline to not expect any major trades due to him liking the prospects.

            I doubt they will give they’re entire farm for people like Adrian Gonzalez, Felix or Halladay.

            I don’t want Halladay. He will cost the Yankees everyone good prospect in the system. No exaggeration. He’s declining too. That’s the reason why we don’t want him. He’ll decline, and just we paid a shitload in resources to acquire him.

            Felix however is worth it but I doubt he’ll be going anywhere.

          • TheLastClown says:

            Yes. A Bold and Emphatic Yes.

            This team, the WORLD CHAMPION 2009 NEW YORK YANKEES, was supposed to have CMW as its 3rd starter.

            20% of our starting rotation evaporated, like poof!

            Joba & Hughes are still in development.

            We still dominated our division, and the playoffs in general. This team, as presently comprised, is more than good enough to beat anyone.

            Maybe another AAA starter needs to be converted to the BP to help out K-Rob & Co., but that’ll be taken care of next year.

            AFTER next year, I think they go FA splashing again. At least Crawford, and depending on whatever shakes down between now & once more around the sun, Lee?

  11. Girardi out to the mound says:

    Of the guys (Damon, Matsui, Andy) potentially leaving/retiring, IMO Andy is the most important and should be the number 1 priority for Cash to lock up.

    The potential of CC, AJ, and a bunch of question marks is scary. I am sure Cash would figure something out, but with Andy back the rotation looks much more promising.

    • 1. Pettitte
      2a) Matsui
      b) Damon

      And let Molina walk.

      • Girardi out to the mound says:

        Def. agree. For most of the season I thought Damon over Matsui but the past 1-2 months have changed my mind. Matsui just keeps producing, is ridiculously clutch, provides great protection for Arod, and hits lefties really which is a huge advantage when you see the likes of Ryan Howard get dominated by LHP

    • Count Zero says:

      If I were a betting man, I would bet that AP goes out on top and retires. I’d call it 60/40 in favor of a graceful exit.

      It’s never been about the money with Andy…at least that’s what we’ve always heard. So I don’t think this is really in our hands. If he still wants to pitch, then I definitely make him a good offer.

      I would definitely bring back Matsui for one more — any more than that gets dicey though.

      Damon — I like the guy a lot, but unless he takes 1+ a team option (which I highly doubt) I have to pass.

  12. Jackson says:

    I say don’t even bother with arbitration. Just sign to him a 1 year contract for around what he ended up making this year with some sort of mutual option for 2011. Why bother with the process.

    • That’s probably what happens. The rough timeline will likely be:
      A) the team begins negotiating with Andy’s agent
      B) the deadline to offer arb arrives, and the Yankees offer to cover their procedural bases
      C) the deadline to accept arrives, and Andy accepts to cover his procedural bases
      D) the team and Andy announce they’ve come to a contract agreement and the arbitration hearing never happens.

    • Count Zero says:

      Agreed. That puts him in an early decision mode and forces him to make the call on retirement while we still have other options.

  13. Rod says:

    If the Yankees could pick up a league average type guy with low FB rates that would be great. Unfortunately, it would have to come via trade since there isn’t much going on in the FA market for pitchers this season outside of Lackey.

  14. Riddering says:

    Next to the rocking championship we just won, a rotation of CC/A.J./Andy/Joba/Hughes for 2010 is what I’ve been craving for a while.

    Make it so, monkey paw Cashman!

    • TheLastClown says:

      Looks kinda like big ol’ tasty free agent cherries on top of a frosty homegrown sundae don’ it?

      Damn Yankees buying all the mercenaries for hire…

  15. Girardi out to the mound says:

    Wow. Pete Abe is really starting to look like a perfect fit in Boston.

    http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....an_do.html

  16. Lanny says:

    Even if Pettitte is resigned which should be a priority they are going to need to go out and add another quality starter. Because you can never have enough pitching.

    It would also let Hughes/Joba develop without forcing it upon them and making them earn it.

    • I could see them doing this with a guy like J-Dukes and making him the swingman/6th starter while turning one of Aceves/Gaudin into one inning relievers.

    • I agree, with one major caveat:

      It all depends on your definition of “quality starter”.

      I want to add a quality starter, but a quality starter of the Justin Duchscherer stratosphere, not one of the John Lackey stratosphere. Because Lackey would be extravagant overkill and represents a poor allocation of resources.

      We don’t need another ace, we just need one more decent option for depth purposes.

      • ROBTEN says:

        This.

        Cash and the Yankees have not done a bad job the past few years finding low-risk, easily replaceable starters for the back of the rotation.

        Small, Chacon, Lidle, Mitre, Gaudin, Rasner, Swisher…

        The point is that with CC, Burnett, AP, Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, (eventually) Wang, (possibly) McAllister…you don’t need to overspend to get Lackey or give up (way too many) prospects for Halladay.

      • Tank Foster says:

        If we get Andy back, yes.

        You’re counting on alot from Joba, Phil, IPK…if AJ gets hurt, and Phil or Joba sucks or gets hurt, it could get ugly quickly, even with Andy.

        I think you’re right that it’d be better not to spend $$$ on Lackey, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world they could do.

    • JobaWockeeZ says:

      And by quality starter you mean sign anyone good that isn’t named John Lackey I agree.

      Unless you mean by a way of trading then no.

    • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

      I agree, but what is needed is insurance. We should be looking for a low cost (not so much $$, but in terms of years and/or prospects) option here, we don’t need to overcommit to lackey, or give up montero+ for felix/halladay.

      A think something low cost and league average plus a reclamation project (harden, sheets, whatever) would do nicely. The former MIGHT even be hiding in scranton already.

  17. Klemy says:

    So, Buster’s really going ot on the ledge with this one, eh?

  18. MikeD says:

    Unless Andy decides he wants to retire on a high note, I can’t imagine why the Yankees wouldn’t want him back. I’m pretty much of the mindset of Rob Neyer that there doesn’t seem to be any reason to believe that Pettitte could not remain an effective starter until he’s 40. He really has not lost much and he’s the type of pitcher that ages well, assuming his elbow holds up.

    Lefties who can pitch 200 innings, thrive in NY, and are comfortable pitching in big games (not to mention home grown), should not be taken lightly, yet my fear is the Yankees will. That’s how Andy left for Houston. They assumed he’d come back, and while he wanted to, the Yankees didn’t move fast enough, or seem interested enough.

    They played that game last year and it worked. Depending on what’s going on in Andy’s head, the Yankees should be careful about assuming anything, or making a low-ball offer, otherwise he might be pitching for Joe Torre in LA.

    • Andy may be entering his “crafty lefty” second wave career renaissance. He’s gonna out-Moyer Jamie Moyer.

      • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

        This.

        And Derek keeps busting his ass in the offseason, in spite of obscene wealth and sealed reputation cuz he’s a Winnah!

        And Mo keeps his promise and goes another 5 years.

        /happiest fan ever’d

    • Tank Foster says:

      They will definitely want him back. An aging veteran pitcher, relative to his young lion counterpart, is more reliable and usually more productive. In contrast, an aging veteran position player, relative to his young lion counterpart, is often less reliable and sometimes less productive.

      Position players need to play every day, so old, injury prone guys cause problems for their teams by missing games. Their general athletic decline usually causes defensive problems and slower baserunning. The big advantage to an aging veteran position player is always offense, but the offsetting defense, running, and durability often make it logical to go with a younger player.

      With pitchers, I think it’s different. Pitchers do get injuries, of course, but with them not playing every day, it seems to be a bit easier to get an old pitcher through a season than a position player. Minor injuries can be massaged away between starts, or perhaps pushing a start back a day or two. Can’t do that with your SS. Pitchers’ defense doesn’t matter much, and they don’t run bases in the AL. So Andy, even at 38, is in many ways a better bet and a more sure thing than even a good young pitcher like Hughes. Comparing someone like Andy to Kennedy, it isn’t even close.

      So they will definitely want him back. The devil is always in the details, and I suppose that’s why they didn’t offer him arbitration last season. But given how durable he was, how well he was able to perform against the best in the leagues in the playoffs, how he managed to stay healthy, I would be shocked if the Yankees don’t give him arb or otherwise give him what he asks for in a deal of a reasonable length.

  19. Camilo Gerardo - your inception? fuck perception, go with what makes sense says:

    olney also thinks this may be the beginning of another dynasty run. i don’t think so

    • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

      Why the hell not? Yes, our best players are aging and yes, we were REALLY lucky with injuries this year

      BUT

      we were best in baseball by a wide margin, so we can handle some mean reversion, AND the old guys are driven and will train REALLY hard in the offseason

      • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

        If Jeter, Arod, MO and Andy can train hard enough to avoid steep declines for 3 more years or so (a risk for sure, but not inconceivable) then I see no reason why surrounding them with a solid lineup and good pitching can’t generate a number of championships.

        The reason we haven’t won year after year is because we ended up with mediocre pitching for years. That is officially over.

      • Tank Foster says:

        Why the hell not? Yes, our best players are aging and yes, we were REALLY lucky with injuries this year…BUT…

        Because our best players are aging, and yes, we were REALLY lucky with injuries this year.

        Dynasties are really, really rare. I’d bet lots of money this isn’t the beginning of one. Very good and competitive, yes. Dynasty, no. Or

      • Tampa Yankee says:

        Why the hell not?

        Because of this…
        Rollins admitted that the Yankees “were the better team in the series” but wouldn’t go beyond that. And really, did you expect that he would?

        “Do I think we’re a better team? I really do,” he said. “They showed a lot of heart, a lot of grit. We drilled a couple guys. No one backed down. They executed. It’s all about who’s playing good at the time — not that we were playing bad. They were that much better.”

        But the Yankees didn’t embarrass the Phillies or take away their hard-earned swagger. Rollins said he and his teammates “don’t plan on being anywhere else but here” at this time next year. That’s a bold statement, coming from the clubhouse of a team that just lost the World Series.

        At one point, Rollins was asked if the Phillies’ chance at a dynasty was still alive.

        “Definitely,” he said. “You’ve usually got to win two in a row. But San Antonio’s pretty good, winning every other year.”

        If Rollins is right, and the Phillies are on the Tim Duncan Plan, we’ll watch them play in the cold again next year. At Yankee Stadium, I presume.
        http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....ll-Classic

        • Hey Philly, Yankees ain't the Rays says:

          True. Forgot to reckon with J-Roll, the second best shortstop appearing in this years WS. No – wait – forgot Pena ended up on the roster. And Hairston Jr.

          So yeah, J-Roll the 4th best shortstop in the whole WS.

        • Tank Foster says:

          Funny. Jimmy–watch some of the tape. Your team played poorly. Look at Howard, you, and the Flyin’ Hawaiian, for starters. And one of the relievers, can’t remember his name, was pretty bad in one of the games I think. ;-)

    • MikeD says:

      He’s probably hoping so, just so he can write another book when it ends.

      This team seems a little different than the ’96-’01 run in that there was a core of very young and talented players coming up that formed the foundation — Jeter, Pettitte, Rivera, Posada and Bernie. Minus Bernie, the core is still there, but they are now on the other side of their careers, even if they remain productive. Not every dynasty is built the same way, and maybe CC, Tex and the rise of Hughes, Joba and Cano and maybe Montero and Jackson, eventually, can help fuel another run, but it’s asking a lot to expect to see another run as dominant as the one we saw a decade back.

      Of course, there’s another question to ask. How does one define the end of a dynasty. Perhaps this is “just” the fifth world championship, seventh AL championship and thirteenth time in fourteen seasons the Yankees have made the play-offs as part of an ongoing dynasty run!

  20. Tank Foster says:

    Andy is the key for next season. If he decides to retire, they will probably have to sign someone like Lackey to take up the slackey….I’m not crazy about Lackey but replacing Pettitte with Joba-Hughes-Kennedy will be an inferior rotation to this year, I think. Of course, if Wang can return at some level of effectiveness, I might change my opinion.

    I think the veteran OF/DH types could be signed for a year, but if they want more I don’t know.

    I am of the opinion that genuinely trying to win it all every year can be self-defeating, and that, in some cases, you have to make moves that may weaken your team in the short run in exchange for something better in the long run.

    I don’t know the specifics of how to handle it, but obviously with a young Teixeira ensconced at first, we have, at some point in the next few years, a DH glut with the aging Posada, Jeter, and ARod. It will manifest itself minimally next season, but I think they’ll really start feeling it in 2011. Which is why committing to either Damon or Matsui for more than a year creates roster “constipation.” Depending on how all the negotiation shakes out, it might be necessary to part with one or both of Damon and Matsui a year too early, rather than risk being a year or more too late. I seriously, seriously doubt it will be both, but one of them may walk this season.

    I am optimistic about the pitching arms in the Yankee minor league system. I’m less so about the position players, apart from Montero.

    [Getting ahead of myself department: I'll say it again, if Montero is as good as it looks like he'll be, he should NOT be a catcher. I know the leveraged value of a good hitting catcher. But I like a 22 year career with 500 homers and 150 games/season better than a 14 year career (as a catcher) with 295 homers and 120 games/season. I don't mind "sacrificing" the career of a player to a degree to get a great hitting catcher, but when you have someone that looks like a once in a generation hitting talent, it's better to maximize that....ok now start assaulting me.]

    • pete says:

      no i completely agree. However, I do believe that until the MLB club genuinely needs his bat in its lineup, there’s no harm to be done seeing if this whole catching thing sticks. A) It will improve his hitting development, as seeing the spin on 150 pitches a night can only improve pitch recognition, and learning how to set up hitters will help him learn to recognize the patterns with which he is being set up, and B) since he doesn’t play shortstop or CF, catcher is actually one of the few positions where he’ll fit into in the next few years.

      • Tank Foster says:

        Those are excellent points I hadn’t considered. And you’re probably correct to a degree.

        The thing about catching that always scares me is that I think the longterm damage actually gets done early in the career. When the players are in there early-mid 20s, and they are healthy young studs and either don’t feel the injuries or recover quickly, they can often catch lots of games and start the process of irreversible, slow, long term damage to their backs, hips, knees, etc.

        Bill James wrote an article once where he looked at catchers with long careers, and found that many of them either caught very few games early in their careers (due to injury, or being converted to a catcher, etc.).

        Jorge is an interesting case because as far as I know he was an infielder in the minors, so he should have that benefit of not having caught games during his vulnerable, early 20 years. While I wouldn’t call him injury prone, he seems to be on a pretty typical catchers’ career trajectory. Maybe Jorge blows away the theory about lasting longer if you didn’t catch too many games as a young player.

        It boggles my mind that the Dodgers didn’t convert Piazza to a 1b, and I think the Twins should make Mauer either a 3b or an OF. Everything looks great now. But when his HOF level numbers start tapering back toward “ordinary good player” levels in about 4 years, they’ll be sorry. Mauer as an OF could end up with one of the best batting records in baseball history.

        I know, I know, he’s more valuable as a catcher, his replacement at C will suck more than the guy he replaces in the OF. But he will stay great longer, and will be even greater, of they get him out of there now.

        These guys have huge egos, though, and catchers are alpha males who don’t seem to want to be told what to do. Piazza would never change positions, nor would Jorge. Mauer is probably the same.

        • pete says:

          this is true. Catchers are guys who from a very young age are assumed by all their coaches to be the smartest guys on the field. And I do agree to an extent. If Montero continues to look like a top 10 producer as he has done thus far, then I think his long term future is better protected by moving him away from catcher, and I hope that the organization recognizes this.
          What I hope can happen is that we keep him at catcher for the time being so that by 2011 he can be our starting catcher, while we continue to work on romine and our other MiL catchers. Hopefully 2011 is our last year of log-jammed RF and DH, and Jesus’s bat should be good enough for either (his D in RF would likely play out similar to Abreu’s though, being a bit oversized and underathletic, with his only tool being a cannon arm), but his catching experience could maybe render him a capable backup catcher – not in the defensive-minded sense (frankie c should be able to handle that), but in the starts-when-romine-needs-a-day-off sense. It would be nice to be able to allot proper rest to a catcher without having to give a lineup spot to a guy like molina.
          I do think people get a little too excited about the whole good-hitting catcher thing though. Catching contributes to a faster rate of offensive and defensive decline than any other position, and it is not worth sacrificing what could be a HOF caliber bat for what will always be mediocre at best catching, when we have a glut of better defensive catchers.
          Still, I don’t see the harm in keeping him at C for now, since he isn’t impeding anybody else’s development. Chances are, he ends up a miggy-type DH. I would have absolutely no problem with that. I’d take Miguel Cabrera over victor martinez any day of the week. But letting him develop enough as a catcher that catching would be a part of his arsenal would, I think, only make him a better and more valuable player, both offensively and defensively, and would be of extraordinary use to the team.

  21. king of fruitless hypotheticals says:

    …think about how many games Wang lost…now put the Chadster in for those games. Bet he wins 2 of them–especially with a much healthier Arod backing Tex from the start (admittedly a slow-starting Tex)…I think Grittner and Melky need to compete every day for ‘their’ job–hot hand gets it; they seem to play much better that way. Hairston, Hinske both seem to be capable backups. Bye X Man, it was good to know you. Matsui and Damon will DH and rest–those two, three backups play a league-average left field? CC-AJ–Andy-Joba-Hughes (guadin) seems pretty decent to me. Our pen smells of elderberrry…ahhh…sweet, sweeeet smell.

    Cervelli for Molina straight up? Meh…I think we resign Molina–Cash disappeared in a second, I think you need another catcher institutionally. Jesus, Romine, etc arent ready (was frankie? good question.)

    Pena is ready to play the OF in YSIII too, you know.

    No Cody Ransom, no X ligaments, no broken Wang, no expectation of Godzilla in left, no Hip-rod (hopefully)…man, can’t the season start tomorrow?!?!

    104 DAYS?! ARE YOU SHITTIN ME??!!

  22. [...] had some very light rumors at the end of the week, and most expect to see Pettitte back in pinstripes next year. Hideki Matsui, on the other hand, ruled out a return to Japan. Bobby Abreu [...]

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