Nov
02
Fan Confidence Poll: November 2nd, 2009
ByRecord Last Week: 3-1 (19 RS, 16 RA)
Season Record: 103-59 (915 RS, 753 RA), won AL East by 8 games, finished with the best record in MLB by 6 games
Schedule This Week: World Series Game Five @ Philadelphia (Monday), Game Six at home (Wednesday, if necessary), Game Seven at home (Thursday, if necessary)
Top stories from last week:
- The Yankees made a pair of roster moves before a World Series that featured the best of both leagues started, dropping Freddy Guzman and Frankie Cervelli in favor of Brian Bruney and Eric Hinske. Philadelphia, on the other hand, announced that Pedro Martinez would get the ball in Game Two.
- Game One featured a fantastic pitching matchup of former Indians and former Cy Young Award winners, but Cliff Lee outpitched CC Sabathia to give the Phillies a 1-0 series edge. We wondered if Joe Girardi would use David Robertson in a key spot, and sure enough he was on the mound when Raul Ibanez put the game out of reach by bouncing a single through the hole.
- Already down in the series, the Yankees turned to the enigmatic AJ Burnett in Game Two, and the righty didn’t disappoint. He threw his best game as a Yankee in the most important start of his career, helping the Bombers tie the series at one. Three runs was enough, but the Yanks could have built up a bit more of a lead had it not been for an ill-advised Derek Jeter bunt attempt. Mired in a deep slump, Nick Swisher was benched in favor of Jerry Hairston Jr.
- During the off-day between Games Two and Three, the Phillies announced that they would turn to Joe Blanton in Game Four, while manager Charlie Manuel took after his shortstop and ran his mouth. Prior to Game Three, the Yankees announced that Sabathia would get the ball in Game Four on three day’s rest.
- Game Three featured a pair of lefty starters, but in the end Andy Pettitte outdueled Cole Hamels for a 2-1 series lead. The offense came alive as Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher (thanks to a new stance) found their stroke, and the bullpen held down the fort late.
- Before Game Four, the Yanks announced that they would be turning to Burnett on short rest in Game Five. Joba Chamberlain blew the Yankees lead late, but the offense picked him up in the ninth thanks a megaclutch at-bat by Johnny Damon. The win put the Yanks just one game away from their 27th World Title.
- As has been the case throughout the postseason, the World Series television ratings have been strong. And I thought the Yankees were bad for baseball?
- Andy Pettitte said he wasn’t very happy with the contract he received for 2009, but something tells me he’ll get taken care of should he decide to come back. The Yanks met with Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman during Game Six of the ALCS.
- Derek Jeter took home the Roberto Clemente Award for his work with his Turn 2 Foundation, so congrats to the Cap’n.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Only A-rod can have the game winning, series altering hit he got last night and have all the focus be on the guy he knocked in. Damon had a great at bat and heady play, but it would have been for nothing without Al. What a huge hit.
Confidence at 27.
Moshe, all those years I MF’d the guy. And yeah I freely admit it, I should have listened to you back on the block.
All I can say now is; that’s some mighty tasty crow.
It’s funny, I’ve gotten that mea culpa from a number of people today. One more game, and I’ll start firing off “told you so’s.”
Be my guest.
Confidence level – 10
Because good things come from a World Series victory. Except the hangover for the pitchers.
they get four months to sleep it off…
10. “That was just a tenacious at-bat from Johnny Damon” just keeps going through my head. What a great ninth inning.
That at bat was incredible.
As for being at the Stadium last night, it was absolutely awesome. My girlfriend’s uncle scored tickets to tonight’s game, so she’ll be going as the only Yankee fan in her family.
Maybe after the Series ends we can get a Johnny Damon appreciation thread? It would be fitting, being that we’re at the end of that controversial 4 year contract – it’ll be like a recap of his entire tenure with the team. I wrote a comment like a year ago, either during the ‘08 season or the ‘08-’09 offseason, about how valuable he’s been to the Yankees and more about underappreciated he’s been and how funny it is to look back at how the Yankees were killed in the media when they gave Damon that contract. In my opinion, Damon was worth every penny. Sure his fielding regressed (pretty badly this season), but the Yankees got 4 VERY productive offensive seasons and a 4-year outfielder out of the deal. Last night was amazing… And I think the coolness of the moment was amped up just a bit for me since it was Damon who played such a big role in that inning. I have a soft-spot for that guy. I don’t even know if I think the Yankees should bring him back (depending on the contract, etc.) – we’ll discuss that ad nauseum during the offseason, I’m sure – but man, has he been good for this team over the course of his contract.
+1
That contract has been better than we could’ve ever imagined.
In fact, this could be a nice new feature to fill up some pages during the offseason… Contract re-caps for players with expiring contracts. Look back at the player’s performance during the term of the contract (year by year), look at actual value vs. contract value, look at other options that were available at the time, look at media/fan/industry reactions to the move at the time and now, etc.
I like those ideas.
I agree that Damon has been worth every penny. And I say that while admitting that the contract looked very risky to me at the time of signing. In fact, it looked like the Red Sox were very smart, at the time, to swap out Damon for Coco Crisp. They had similar numbers in the previous year or two and Crisp was cheaper, younger, faster and a better fielder.
It just goes to show you how wrong one can be. Damon worked out great for the Yankees and Crisp was a bust for the BoSox. Go figure.
I’d love to see Johnny back if a mutually acceptable deal can be struck.
My vote for ten just pushed the “ten” category to 27 votes. Oh snap.
I did that last week.
I want to know who voted a “2″
Charlie Manuel.
Maybe the person that voted a 2 also voted a 7
Maybe someone wanted to vote 27, but had to settle for voting for a 2 and then a 7.
Confidence = 34 = 27!
My confidence has been 10 for the past 3 weeks
we got this shit
We play today…
We Win Today…
Das it!
Jeter also snagged himself the Hank Aaron award (again) this week.
Also, 10.
How can it be anything other than 10? One win away with 3 shots (2 at home) over a demoralized team whose best pitcher is done after tonight’s game (win or lose) amd with the best closer in history on your side having thrown only 13 pitches the last 3 days. After Game 1 I would have signed-up for a Game 7 and it would have been insanity to think then that Yanks would have 2 shots at winning it all before ever getting to a Game 7. Now the insane thinking is that Phillies can get it to a game 7 let alone win it.
Obviously a 10. I’m not always the most confident in AJ, but I really have a feeling he’s gonna shut it down and close this thing out tonight. I asked this last night, but does anyone know if the Stadium will be open for the game tonight? Couldn’t think of a better atmosphere to watch a potential clincher.
I’m at a 10. I love how people are questioning Girardi going for the kill. It isn’t going to matter. They are rolling offensively now.
I heard its not going to be open because they have to get it ready for a potential game 6.
When was the last time Yankee fans woke up on a Monday morning feel less than the most confident group of bastards in the world?
We few, we lucky few.
We band of Yankees (fans)…
The aim of this game is to win the World Series – we are winning the World Series. Hence 10…
I’m at a 9. It’s the right move, but I don’t love the starters for the next 3 games all being on 3 days rest.
After seeing Coke warming in the 9th and hearing that Hairston might start in center tonight, you have to wonder, did Robertson and gardner get caught doing something inappropriate with the manager’s wife?
I’d rather Burnett, Pettitte, and Sabathia go on three days rest rather than have Aceves or Gaudin get a World Series start.
I don’t deny that it’s the right move. It just raises a question or two.
AJ on short rest is 4-0 with a 2.23 era I believe. Also if the Yanks get a run early don’t you think the Phillies are going to be pressing? All the pressure is on them. Game 1 isn’t a lot of pressure because they have games. If they lose this one they are over. Big difference.
But John Kruk said all the pressure is on the Yankees to close this one out. Shouldn’t the pressure be on the Phillies to not lose?
There’s just no pleasing some people…
The one flaw this team has is lack of rotation depth. Obviously in an ideal world we’d like a fairly reliable fourth starter-something we should have next year. It’s a small flaw though, and the best way to compensate for it is by using our stellar 1-2-3 on short rest. We’ve used that strategy to great success so far with CC.
I’m not really worried about AJ going on 3 days, that is fine – i’m more worried about Andy going on 3 days. Imagine if AJ pitches well but Lee pitches better nad we go to NY 3-2 but send Andy out on 3 days? That is a concern…
On the plus side – the Yankees line up learns more in an at bat than any other line up in baseball. They saw Lee for 9 innings, now they get to see him again so soon… They’ll hit him better than they did last time around. Same goes for pedro in game 6.
Confidence is 10, make no mistake about that – but there are still concerns…
True, there are concerns. But this series is over.
I want it to end tonight. Period. No Andy on 3 days rest. They have to step up to the plate and hit Lee. It can be done. Lee got hit hard alot by NL teams late in the season. He can be hit.
One motherfucking win away.
I’m buying champagne and a cigar this afternoon.
If there are any Bed-Stuy residents on RAB that want to join me for a celebratory smoke, let me know
“Overall future” is a pretty vague term, so one’s answer depends on your outlook on things.
I vote 7 most of the time. Occasionally 8, once in a while 6.
I don’t vote 10 because the Yankees are not young. The stars, Jeter, ARod, Damon, Posada, Rivera, are all on the wrong side of 30….Rivera turns 40 this year.
It’s hard for me to justify a score of 10 for “overall future” when the team is that old.
My confidence is 10 for the World Series. It’s 9 that they make the playoffs in 2010.
But we don’t know what the career trajectories will be for the above-named stars. If ARod declines defensively, significantly, in a year or two, what do you do with him? He can’t play 1b. How long before Jorge is a DH? Jeter was pretty fair in the field this year, but how long does that continue, and if he does have to move off SS, how valuable would he be in the OF?
I’m not trying to piss in my canteen here or be a Debbie Downer. I think a confidence rating of 7 is pretty realistic, when you’re thinking long term. To have a confidence level of 10 – perfect – to me is a stretch.
I’m not looking 5 years out. To me, long term in baseball is the next 2 or 3 years. The players you mentioned will all be producing for the next couple of years. And they still have CC and AJ at the top of the pitching order.
The immediate future looks bright.
Plus, even if the offense regresses. It’s still going to be ridiculous, plus Joba and Hughes are bound to only get better.
The immediate future looks bright.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY (safe)
Hey – Look who’s here. Welcome back!
Thank you, thank you.
I know it was a little hairy without me, but I skimmed through some of the gamethreads, and I have to say, I’m proud of you boys. You all kept your head on a swivel, and that’s what you’ve gotta do when you’re in the middle of a vicious cockfight.
If the Yanks overall future is not a 9 or 10, not even counting this next up coming week as the “future,” then no team in baseball can ever get to a nine or ten. While we do have aging stars, don’t you supreme confidence that the Yanks will be able to fill those holes in 3-4 years from now? I mean, we spend far more money than any team in baseball, our management finally has their heads on straight (not just signing/trading for every big free agent regardless of counterbalancing circumstances), and the current “aging” stars still probably have a WS or two left in them. Nothing can be certain five to ten years from now, but if you can have confidence in any team to get good players, it the Yanks.
but if you can have confidence in any team to get good players, it the Yanks.
“Getting” good players doesn’t always work out for the best.
I’m with Tank, and have voted with that philosophy all season long. “Overall future” including farm system etc. is pretty vague and all-encompassing. What can I say, I grade hard. A ten is doable, but very difficult to get in my book. A team has to be primed to go on a dynasty run. Frankly, the Yankees’ best players are a little long in the tooth and we saw (’08, especially) what missing one for most of the season can do to an offense.
I’m confident in CC, but have little faith in AJ as a high-level starter (he can be dominant, but we all know about good AJ and bad AJ – he could go out tonight and give up 8 runs in 4 innings and I wouldn’t be surprised). As of now, next year the OF looks like Melky/Gardner/Swisher with no DH to speak of (or Molina/Cervelli being the main catcher), Pettite will probably come back, but how much is left in his tank? Will Joba or Hughes turn the corner, I think one of them will, but I don’t know.
I’m usually around a 7 or 8, but this week gets bumped to a 9 because of a pretty damn good shot at a World Championship. I think the Yankees have a solid core to repeat as AL champs, but the offseason will have to answer some questions for the “overall future”
If we signed Aroldis Chapman, would that help ease the stress?
If I would give you some money out of my wallet, would that ease the pain?
Yes. I’ll take unmarked bills in the $20 flavor.
Two words: Kei Igawa.
I don’t put much stock at all in the international free agent hype machine. That is, until they start showing success against professional baseball players like everyone else. All Chapman has right now is a high-end fastball that sometimes hits the strikezone, a shaky delivery, and an exorbitant price tag.
Two words: Kei Igawa.
Three words: Chien-Ming Wang.
Three words: Chien-Ming Wang.
“That is, until they start showing success against professional baseball players like everyone else.”
Chapman is a pitching prospect.
TNSTAPP.
Gee . . . That sounds a little like another Yankee pitching acquisition a few years ago. What was his name? Oh yeah . . . Kyle Fransworth.
A) Chapman is a lefty, not a righty. Yes, Farnsworth throws it hard and straight, and that’s his undoing, but I’d bet if Farnsworth was the exact same pitcher but a southpaw, he’d be quite a bit more effective. 96-100mph heat from the left side is quite the rarity.
B) Chapman is a starter, not a reliever. Also, a huge difference.
All true. My point is that velocity alone is not a GUARANTEE. I still want to go after him, but it’s a big risk.
Also, you may have missed it, but I welcomed you back somewhere in this thread.
fair enough, and I get what you guys are saying. Some people have an aversion to call anything a 10, or perfect. Because in reality, especially in sports, nothing can really be perfect or foolproof, so I get it. If a “ten” equals 6 straight WS championships to you guys, then yea, they are not a ten.
But to me, a ten is a WS contender every year. I think the Yanks have that with this current team, with the money they will be able to spend in the future and with our current management in place.
Even last year, when things got bleak (from Yankee standpoint at least), you still could have supreme confidence that the Yanks will find the right mix of players. Quite frankly, we spend so much more than almost all of the teams in baseball, it would be kinda tough to fuck it up that much. Gotta have confidence!!
“Quite frankly, we spend so much more than almost all of the teams in baseball, it would be kinda tough to fuck it up that much.”
Quite frankly, EVERYTHING I SAY IS IMPORTANT. ANDRE IGOUDALA!
A lot of those players you’re talking about are already in their mid to late 30’s and still better than 95% of the players at their respective positions. Even if they decline a little bit…they’ll still be better than 85%-90%??
And Damon and Matsui might not be back…and they’re in their mid-to-late 30’s…
We’ll be fine. And Mo is still killin’ it by the way…
He’s 40 in a few weeks and this season was like his 3rd best of his career? The guy’s just amazing…
Even if they decline a little bit…they’ll still be better than 85%-90%??
Not necessarily. Sometimes the wheels just fall off (Bernie Williams’s precipitous decline really haunts me. Robin Yount was a terrific hitter that just disappeared one season). Sometimes great players fade fast. Sometimes injuries are to blame. Older bodies are more prone to injuries (season ending hip surgery, knees, backs, etc).
True. But the way these guys are…the probability that it happens to all of them all of them all at once is almost non-existant (knock on wood)…and usually (not always) future Hall of Famers might hang em up before it starts hurting their numbers ala Don Mattingly style.
But it is a concern. I’m just hoping it doesn’t happen.
It doesn’t have to happen to all them. Just one would be a tough blow (Now replacing Alex Rodriguez for the season, Ramiro Pena). Hypothetically, if your players 35 years and older face a serious injury risk only 5% greater than players under 35, you would want to minimize the number of players you have over 35. Especially when, still, the farm system is pretty bereft of upper level talent.
But that is all next season.
My confidence level for the Yankees to win this world series = 11
Go Yankees.
Can the WS play out before we go into who will be resigned next yr?
Read the poll question: “overall future”
Does that mean next week, tomorrow, later today or next season? Until it’s defined, pretty much anything goes.
WHO is thinking long-term? I’m thinking TO-NIGHT
Confidence Level: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7vOC9XIO08 (safe)
i have missed you tsjc, you have instilled confidence in me to not go bananas when shit hits the fan, because the yanks will clean up after it’s all said and done.
Let’s go start with straight shit and then pop bottles like lil wayne and birdman cuz our boys are going to win a championship
“Let’s go start with straight
shitshots and then pop bottles like lil wayne and birdman cuz our boys are going to win a championship”Fixed.
And, HELLS YES.
Dude there was much clamoring for you last night in the game threads, you have minions! Welcome back.
I’m irresistible.
Would anybody line up these pitching match ups any differently being up 3-1?
What about Gaudin tonight Vs. Lee. You get AJ on regular rest back at the stadium for a rematch against Pedro…and have a combination of Andy AND Sabathia for Game 7 (if needed)…
I just don’t like these match ups because if Cliff Lee is anything even close to what he was at Yankee Stadium…we’re just burning an AJ Burnett start (assuming Lee pitches better, which despite AJ’s great start…Lee was better). And a 37 year old on short rest doesn’t sound that great either…
It’s not THAT big of a deal…but all these short rest starts worry me some…especially since Cliff Lee and Pedro have pitched gems and will be on regular rest…
You were the one that was here last week complaining about how you just “didn’t feel good about the offense”.
I said it last week. Same holds true.
chill.
p.s. chad gaudin should not start a world series game. ever.
I did say that. And at the time it rang true. But I’ll admit…the offense has definitely showed up in Philly…although Joe Blanton did strike out 8 batters and look pretty good against us regardless. We still did what we’ve been doing all year and battled back over and over though.
Before the 9th inning last night, Teixeira, Arod, and Cano combined for 3 hits total in the series. It was a bit concerning at one point haha.
Either way…our team is nasty and I see what you’re saying.
It was a bit concerning at one point haha.
To you, maybe.
Maybe.
Why take our foot off the gas at this point? You gotta sprint past the finish line. We are going with our top guys. Gaudin should not get a start for the NY Yankees in a possible elimination game. If the Phils win tonight, it is a new series. NO Gaudin!
Haha I don’t like Gaudin…I was just proposing a possibility! lol
So you’d like to hand the Phillies a game? I don’t see the sense in that.
Well seemingly the Phillies were “handing us a game” last night and we just barely won. Joe Blanton Vs. Sabathia??? On paper that was an automatic win…but Blanton ended up pitching suprisingly well with 8 K’s against our #1 offense in baseball.
It’s not throwing away a game…it’s setting up the chess pieces differently that’s all.
Setting them up in a way that will lead to a loss more often than in another arrangement.
I suppose so…but only for this game.
AJ on regular rest in a rematch at home Vs. Pedro is much better than Andy on short rest against Pedro at home. And Andy on full rest in a rematch against Cole Hamels (with Sabathia in the pen) is better than Sabathia starting again 3 days rest (3rd time in a row and hasn’t been as effective) against Cole Hamels at home for a possible Game 7. No?
I’m not claiming it is…I’m just questioning it.
No. 1000 times no.
I have to agree. Let’s not overthink this ish.
The plan got us here, let’s stick to it.
We got this ish in the bag.
Even if there’s a 100% chance that Lee wins tonight, there’s still tremendous value in forcing the Phillies to work hard for their victory. With AJ instead of Gaudin, there’s a better chance we eliminate the possibility of their offense getting on track, plus we’ll keep the game close, force them to pinch hit for Lee, force them to use their front-end relievers again, etc, etc. Even if we concede victory (which is nuts), we should at least look to minimize any possible momentum.
Good point. I was just tossing an idea out there…I’m not like campaigning for it to happen or anything.
We can campaign for managerial decisions? We don’t just have to talk about them with our words having no effect? How do I do this? Does Girardi have a comments box?
CC, Andy, AJ on 3 days rest >>>>> Gaudin on any days rest
They’d never do it (probably because it’s a stupid idea – but hey I’m a Dr. not a baseball manager), but personally I would consider starting Gaudin, but with the idea that he pitches 2-3 innings max. He’s a pretty good pitcher, and I think he could get 2-3 shutout innings. Then you bring Burnett in. It’s a way to extend Burnett. AJ pitches into the 8th inning with a close game, I have a feeling it’s over. The Yankees will hit Cliff Lee tonight.
How about we bench Alex and just save him to PH in a big spot too?
You do not punt games in the WS.
Repeat that.
Why would you look to extend Burnett with the worst pitcher on the staff? I’d prefer they went with Burnett to start the game, and then they have D-Rob, Hughes, Aceves rested. None have had an amazing playoffs, but I’d take them all over Gaudin.
What about Gaudin tonight Vs. Lee
Absolutely not. Why should the Yankees basically throw away the game? They have a chance to win the whole thing tonight and they should go for it. I’d rather they go in for the kill, step on the throats, use the bayonets handed out by TSJC, etc. and use A.J. tonight.
Cause when A.J. is on, he’s just as good as Lee.
Lee is due for a bad game anysways!
Agreed. He’s not on full rest right now is he? 4 days rest tonight, right? Yesterday would have been 3 I think…
He’s pitching on the 4th day, which would be 3 days rest.
Sorry. I was talking about Cliff Lee. He’s not on normal rest either I don’t think…but he’s more rested than AJ is…
Lee is on normal rest, AJ is one day less.
has anyone else seen this video:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?.....id=2521705
Jim Caple’s not biased though…right…
It’s a puff piece about the series being broadcast in China and right in the middle he gets a translator to show him how to say “Yankees Suck” in chineese!
I dont think anyone thinks Jim Caple isn’t biased.
http://www.amazon.com/Devil-We.....amp;sr=8-1
Confidence level: 28…
tsjc:
We’re gonna fucking kill ‘emWe fucking killed ‘emIt’s all over but the crying.
…if you play it right, the crying never actually ends…
If your confidence is not at at least 9.5 you need to have your fan cred checked.
Either the the Yankees win or this series goes seven games. Hard to ask for much more than that.
Is this poll/post even needed today?
So you’re at what…a 6? 7?
(thinks about whether or not he should be kind and diplomatic; then realizes Bo is an insufferable tool who does shit like this all the time and has burned up all his grace periods)
You know what, Bo? Go #$%& yourself. Start your own blog instead of questioning the methods and motives of this one.
STFU.
“Bo knows necessities”
lol
No problem with Yanks using Burnett, Andy and CC on 3 days rest. You have a chance to drop the hammer, you do it. The key to me is the offense. Despite winning yesterday, the fact remains the key components of the the offense (Tex, A-Rod and Cano) have not hit although the 3 hits A-Rod and Tex were huge. But Cano has been downright brutal. Who would have thought the Yanks would be up 3-1 with a combined 4 hits between these 3 players?
Hey, it’s baseball. Shit happens.
That is the beauty of having a lineup like the Yanks do. The same 3 guys don’t have the carry the offense every night like on most teams. We have 8 guys who can all carry a team on any given night. We don’t need them all, although it is a thing of beauty when they are all “on.”
No kidding. We were up 2 games to 1 with Teixeira, Arod, and Cano combining for 3 hits in the series.
I’ll take a win anyway we can get it…
And we’ve only lost 3 games this postseason
Have confidence baby.
10.
Yanks gonna clean up tonight. Bring out the lime. Phillies are done.
Get them a bodybag!
Yeaaaaaaa!
“Beat it, slope…or you’re next”
For a family feel good movie…I never realized how many bad slangs there are towards Mr. Miagi in the movie…
True that.
Heh. I saw the pic on noMaas and that’s what I immediately thought after I saw Reggie’s comment. Get him a bodybag yeaaahh!
One of the best lines.
I shout this line all the time. Complete classic.
we need to win one out of three and if you say that
1) Gaudin would have a 20% chance of winning game 5
2) AJ would have a 40% of winning game 5 but a 60% chance of winning game 6 against Pedro
3) Andy has a 45% shot of winning against Pedro on 3 days rest
Then math tells you to go with Gaudin and AJ rather than AJ and Andy
You can argue the inputs but i’d like to see what probabilities people assign when they say AJ and Andy on 3 days rest are nobrainers
See. I knew I wasn’t crazy. LOL
People get so emotional, so old School, so Joe Morganish when they argue these things without trying to quantify the inputs
In my example above its works out to be 32% probability of going to game 7 with Gaudin and AJ vs 33% with AJ and Andy – the difference is small, clearly, but would anyone out there really argue that starting Gaudin the MFY wouldn’t win one game out of 5 against Lee? Would Pedro on full rest be favourite against Andy on 3 days? I would think so – not massivly but 55/45 makes sense to me after what we saw in game 2 and game 3.
Would AJ on 3 days be 40/60 against Lee? Maybe a bit harsh but I think it is fair.
Would AJ be 60/40 against Pedro? Once again I think it is in the right vicinity.
The difference is…nobody wants to even think about Games 6 and 7 and want to put out the best possible way to win TONIGHT. And there is nothing wrong with that. The only problem is…if you lose tonight…you have worse probabilities for the rest of the series…
It’s still not THAT big of a deal…but that’s basically what it comes down to.
People love instant gratification. It’s like walking the no 8 batter to get to the pitcher for the third out – that is just bad baseball from a probability perspective since it the no 8 batter is probably a lot eaiser to get out than no 1-7.
Thus a lot of people want to increase the chance of winning tonight but in doing so, there is a risk that they reduce the probability of winning it all.
I’m of course not immune – i’d love to celebrate sooner rather than later, but at least i’m prepared to check if GIVEN MY OWN INPUTS, instant gratification is the right strategy.
I think a lot of AJ + Andy proponents would probably end up with a result that actually favours Gaudin + AJ if they made their own guestimates.
When people find that the math doesn’t agree with their instinct (BASED ON THEIR OWN INPUTS) they can then eitehr revisit their inputs or change their minds or be irrational – its all up to them.
Obviously assuming the pitcher wouldn’t be the last out of the game
“People get so emotional, so old School, so Joe Morganish when they argue these things without trying to quantify the inputs”
I’m sorry, I’m going to scream this.
BUT YOU MADE UP YOUR INPUTS. Based them on nothing but hunches, as you admitted. This is not quantifying anything. This is making shit up. Period. Even if you happen to be close to the real probabilities (which we have no way of knowing), it’s still made up.
Making up your own inputs is as Joe Morganish as it gets.
I make a living from estimating probabilities and I know when I make up my data – and I know when that can be right or wrong.
However I’m not using my data to say that one decision is right or wrong, i’m saying that there is a better way of making decisions than simply saying that you want your best guys out there in October which is quite Joe Morganesque
I’m arguing methodology rather than result.
No.
What you’re doing is mocking up some pretend numbers to try and justify your preexisting rationale AGAINST starting guys on short rest.
Frankly, that’s disingenuous and WORSE than anything Morgan does. Morgan doesn’t read numbers or study history, he goes with his gut.
You’re making up numbers out of whole cloth to try and pretend like you’re not going with your gut, but you are.
Actually read my original post and I stipulated a methodolgy. I didn’t actually say whether I’m in one camp or the other.
I actually said “if” and “then” to illustare a point about probability which people don’t seem to appreciate.
My argument was back to what I wrote elsewhere – people tend to make decisions for short term gains (AJ tonight is without a doubt in my mind a better alternative for winning game 5 and wrapping it up sooner rather than later) at the expense of long term gain (winning one of the next 3 games)
The only think i said was that given a set of assumptions, which i though were reasonable and an interesting starting point for the discussion, AJ over Gaudin in game 5 is not a nobrainer. I deliberatly ended up at 32% vs 33% to show how similar the outcomes could be given a set of reasonable assumptions. Nowhere did I say that i actually thugh that those inputs were facts, were based on facts or should even be seen as my own firm belief.
Of course it my methodology in the end comes down to going with your wits. Some input data can be gotten from simulation, some from using bookmaker or betting exchanges, etc, but in the end it really comes down to making small picture assessments that you then add up to replace one big picture assessment.
Where did you get these numbers by the way?
see below
http://www.segashiro.com/wp-co.....my-ass.jpg (safe)
AJ has never lost on 3 days rest. So that means there is a 100% chance that he wins tonight.
See? I can do “math” too.
IETC
They have both never lost in the 2009 World Series…so that means that it will unravel the very fabric of the space time continuum, and destroy the entire universe!!
That’s heavy, Doc.
Fair enough if that is you view, you could make a lot of money on backing up that view by betting all you own on it.
Betfair is giving 2.4-2.46 on a Yankee win tonight with AJ starting so 40.5-41.5% probability of a win.
What are the inputs?
There are no official inputs obviously – just my guestimates. Nothing scientific, just a starting point for a discussion on probabilities
What are you basing your guestimates on though?
…
Betfair for tonight (its actually 41%)
The rest I go with my hunches but I i’m normally not that far off from the bookmakers
You two are ridiculous.
That is all.
How am I ridiculous? I’m confused…
I asked a question.
This guy came up with his own numbers and you’re assuming that because I asked a question…I must be campaigning for it to happen…which isn’t exactly fair.
Thank you, its people like you I make my living off
So, you argue for people using numbers to figure this out, and then make up the numbers?
That’s not the starting point for a discussion, it’s just a different flavor of wild speculation, but it’s couched in the trappings of math and science to make it seem more reasonable.
Go to replacementlevel.com. SG actually runs thousands of simulations to try to generate reasonable probabilities for how the rest of the series might play out. You might have to read a few posts to understand the methodology, but learning is good.
I disagree with some of this. He was just expressing his opinion using percentages which allowed him to get far more specific. It is just his opinion and never stated anything otherwise.
Yeah i saw some of those and they ended up 37-42% if i remember correctly for tonight so 40% isn’t that bad a guess.
However I’d love to see how they quantify 3 days rest for a 37 year old Andy Pettitte who said he was gassed at the end of the last outing, or even AJ where there is more recent data on 3 day starts.
What’s so wrong with quantifying your beliefs? Tell me which of my estimates you think is way off?
I know that by giving my estimates I open myself up for ridicule, but you know what I can live with that.
I would say the Yanks at home with Andy on three days rest vs Pedro is more 55% Yankee win.
Everything else is in the ballpark though. And even still, give me the 40% chance of closing it out tonight rather than almost no shot, 10-20% in my book, with Gaudin.
Yeah, Gaudin Vs. Lee is about as lopsided as you can get this series…
Although Sabathia Vs. Blanton (on paper) is a close second…just glad we won last night regardless to make it moot.
I can tell you the bookmakers were at 68% Yankee win ahead of yesterday’s game, so to go to 90% for a Lee win a pretty dramatically different than CC vs Blanton.
However if one think its 10% for Gaudin it makes sense to go AJ, Andy – that’s fine I’m not saying you’re wrong I just prefer it when people assign values to their statements
I’m the first to acknowledge that bookmakers don’t always get it right and my aim isn’t really to prove anything – I’m really mainly keen to hear what people think are the probabilities for those 4 possible match ups
I get exactly what you are saying and I like the discussion that ensues from that better than just saying “better/worse chance.”
I just think the Yanks at home with Andy on the mound for Game 6 (that hopefully won’t happen) will be the favorite. That is my only difference.
The Gaudin start for me would be about 16% percent maybe to get oddly exact.
Lol – with those numbers your squarly in the AJ + Andy camp
PS thanks for actually reading what I’ve writen and what i’m arguing for
Most people seem to have got stuck on the inputs
I think when people here, and everywhere really, see “percentages,” “probability” and “math,” they need all the numbers to come from some formula or millions of simulations or something.
Meanwhile, you were just using “percentages,” “probabilities” and “math,” to quantify your own, biased, unchecked opinion. They got stuck on using static definitions for the keywords you used.
And I still say it’s a misuse of the word quantifying if you’re just making up the inputs.
And to TLVP, it’s easy to get stuck on the inputs. You made it that way. I get your argument, but our inability to nail down the exact percentages makes it a tough analysis from that POV.
To me, it is similar to the principle of “diminishing marginal utility”
You can quantify how much you want to eat a cheeseburger, even though there really is no “quantifiable” number to put on it. You just kinda make up a number based on a feeling. Then after you eat the first cheeseburger, you still want another cheeseburger (at least I would), but you don’t want it as much as the first time, so you quantify that urge as a lower number than the first cheeseburger.
Here, this is quantifying your own personal feeling on the outcome of a game.
“I think the Yanks will win tonight,” is just a general statement. But you can quantify your own opinion by saying “I think the Yanks have a 60% chance of winning tonight.”
I don’t know if that makes any sense, and reading it back I come off as a bit of an annoying douche, but it the best I can do.
This is too late so i guess no one will read it, but for my own sake i’ll write down my thoughts
There are to things that are quite funny about all of this
1) Underling argument was that people are too shortsighted and don’t look to the what if scenario. In fact most people to begin with was so quick to jump the gun that they didn’t actually read what i had written. Ironic to say the least
2) What is also ironic is that the probabilities that everyone jumped at was not chosen as something i myself believed in but actaully watered down versions of my own instinct. For the record -I think AJ has 45% win probability tonight. I think Gaudin would have had 25%. I think AJ would have had 60% win probability against Pedro, and I think Andy has only a 30% win probability. I never wrote those down because i knew they would draw ridicule
Finally the arguments tht it all gets a little bit too cute is interesting – I live in the UK and I and colleagues bet a lot on betting exchanges and the one thng we really look for and make money on is misunderstood chains of probabilities. For instance right now the Phillies (on Betfair) is 59% on to win tonight but only 12:1 to win it all. If they win tonight it is highly likely that punters will begin to doubt the Yankees and the odds will tighten a lot more than to 7.1:1. There is a fair bit of money to be made on such things – mostly in soccer where fans bet a lot more on Betfair than they do on baseball where it is mostly gamblers who work the odds better than soccer fans. I do these things mostly for fun but i do know people who arbitrage the betting market for living
For the first time, I voted 10
http://i157.photobucket.com/al.....3566-1.jpg (safe)
Well I voted 9 every other time, not like I was voting 7 or 6
What time is it?
about f***ing time…
27.
/River Ave. garage from last night’d
10. Flags fly forever, and that’s what this is all about.
These guys are pro atheletes who have been WELL rested due to this ridiculous postseason schedule. Don’t you think the adrenaline of, oh I don’t know… PITCHING THE CLINCHING GAME IN A WORLD SERIES, will help to alleviate some of the tiredness of one less day of rest?
we have our 3 best lined up for one more win. We will not need them all!
Its not always that easy. Watch professional fighters who are tired and only have to hold their hands up to prevent being hit in the face. Sometimes, your body is tired and it just quits.
And it can be very subtle. The difference between a 94mph fastball on the black to Chase Utley and a 94 mph fastball that floats an inch or two because the legs are tired can be about 400 feet.
I anm not a fan of doing it many times. I feel though Gaudin is a mediocre at best pitcher. all you need is one of your big 3 to step up. Thats all
and girardi would be CRUCIFIED if it looked like he was conceding the game. I mean, why even play?
No where in my post is there any mention about Gaudin starting.
None.
I posted that it’s not easy to just shrug off fatigue because it’s a big moment. And sometimes being mere inches off because of fatigue is subtle and can be really bad.
andy on 3 days > phillies lefty hitters
10. Let’s do this.