None.

I posted that it’s not easy to just shrug off fatigue because it’s a big moment. And sometimes being mere inches off because of fatigue is subtle and can be really bad.

“That is, until they start showing success against professional baseball players like everyone else.”

Chapman is a pitching prospect.

TNSTAPP.

There are to things that are quite funny about all of this

1) Underling argument was that people are too shortsighted and don’t look to the what if scenario. In fact most people to begin with was so quick to jump the gun that they didn’t actually read what i had written. Ironic to say the least

2) What is also ironic is that the probabilities that everyone jumped at was not chosen as something i myself believed in but actaully watered down versions of my own instinct. For the record -I think AJ has 45% win probability tonight. I think Gaudin would have had 25%. I think AJ would have had 60% win probability against Pedro, and I think Andy has only a 30% win probability. I never wrote those down because i knew they would draw ridicule

Finally the arguments tht it all gets a little bit too cute is interesting – I live in the UK and I and colleagues bet a lot on betting exchanges and the one thng we really look for and make money on is misunderstood chains of probabilities. For instance right now the Phillies (on Betfair) is 59% on to win tonight but only 12:1 to win it all. If they win tonight it is highly likely that punters will begin to doubt the Yankees and the odds will tighten a lot more than to 7.1:1. There is a fair bit of money to be made on such things – mostly in soccer where fans bet a lot more on Betfair than they do on baseball where it is mostly gamblers who work the odds better than soccer fans. I do these things mostly for fun but i do know people who arbitrage the betting market for living

You can quantify how much you want to eat a cheeseburger, even though there really is no “quantifiable” number to put on it. You just kinda make up a number based on a feeling. Then after you eat the first cheeseburger, you still want another cheeseburger (at least I would), but you don’t want it as much as the first time, so you quantify that urge as a lower number than the first cheeseburger.

Here, this is quantifying your own personal feeling on the outcome of a game.

“I think the Yanks will win tonight,” is just a general statement. But you can quantify your own opinion by saying “I think the Yanks have a 60% chance of winning tonight.”

I don’t know if that makes any sense, and reading it back I come off as a bit of an annoying douche, but it the best I can do.

And to TLVP, it’s easy to get stuck on the inputs. You made it that way. I get your argument, but our inability to nail down the exact percentages makes it a tough analysis from that POV.