Nov
09
Fan Confidence Poll: November 9th, 2009
ByRecord Last Week: 1-1 (13 RS, 11 RA)
Season Record: 103-59 (915 RS, 753 RA), won AL East by 8 games, finished with the best record in MLB by 6 games, won 27th World Series
Top stories from last week:
- With a chance to wrap up the Fall Classic, the Yanks lost Game Five after AJ Burnett imploded even though his track record on short rest was good. Despite the fact that their gameplan backfired, fans remained optimistic.
- Prior to Game Six, it was officially announced (to no one’s surprise) that Andy Pettitte would get the ball on short rest. The team also announced that Burnett would be available out of the bullpen if need be. Ramiro Pena replaced the injured Melky Cabrera on the roster.
- Despite all the concerns about Pettitte starting on three days’ rest, the Yankees took Game Six thanks to the amazing Hideki Matsui. The win gave them the franchise’s 27th World Championship, the first time a team won the World Series with a 35-yr old shortstop in over 50 years.
- It turns out that Mariano Rivera was nursing an injury the whole time. Brian Cashman also made sure to thank everyone behind the scenes. The parade was amazing, as you’d expect.
- World Series ratings jumped 42% from last year.
- We had some very light rumors at the end of the week, and most expect to see Pettitte back in pinstripes next year. Hideki Matsui, on the other hand, ruled out a return to Japan. Bobby Abreu re-signed with the Angels, setting the market for Johnny Damon. Jon Heyman mentioned that the Yanks may be willing to go two years for Johnny.
- Chien-Ming Wang will visit Dr. Andrews today to see how his surgically repaired right shoulder is progressing.
- RAB readers voted Damon’s double steal in Game Four their favorite moment of the postseason, aside from winning the whole thing, of course.
- Derek Jeter might be getting a bridge named after him, which is cool.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Voting a sentimental ten.
Honestly, I’d say it’s between a 9 and a 9.5. It’ll be very interesting to see what they do in the coming weeks to sort out the OF/DH situation.
Diez
10 we just won the WS. You have to be a 10 until the offseason really starts.
Not necessarily. There’s always holes to fill and improvements to make. The Yanks won it all in spite of some weaknesses, such as the lack of a reliable starter beyond CC, Andy or AJ.
I voted an 8, and only because there’s still a lot of unresolved issues right now. That number will definitely change as the winter goes along, though.
The Yanks won it all in spite of some weaknesses, such as the lack of a reliable starter beyond CC, Andy or AJ.
I disagree with that statement. I think that Gaudin is as good a starter as Blanton, and possibly as good as Pedro. The difference is that the Yankees had the sense to not allow him to start in the playoffs.
Co-sign.
(I actually think Blanton and Pedro are both better starters than Gaudin, but the difference is small enough that your general point is right. The Yankees have weaknesses in the same way that every team has weaknesses, but we have far fewer of them, and our strengths are strong enough to allow us to hide our weaknesses is ways other teams simply can’t.)
Tangent.
Mo et al allow us to hide our weaknesses like nobody else can…distracted by explosions of sound and light that have nothing to do with fireworks from A-bombs from Matsui (my lifetime favorite Sterling comment) et the other al make it pretty easy to remember we’ve got Joba and Phil Phreakin’ Hughes as our 4 and 5 starters next year!!!
Dude, the Yankees didn’t win because they started everyone on short rest and kept Gaudin out of the mix. They won because they have a tremendous line-up, and the Phillies have shitty pitching outside of Cliff Lee.
I mean c’mon, Burnett and Pettitte pitched to a combined 10.55 era on short rest. The best thing you can say about that move is that it didn’t hurt the team.
In all fairness, Pedro pitched a pretty decent Game 2 and Blanton was holding his own in Game 4. If Hamels is the Hamels of 2008, Phillies win Game 3 and it’s a different series.
Not that the Yankees rotation would have looked any different…
“Not necessarily. There’s always holes to fill and improvements to make. The Yanks won it all in spite of some weaknesses, such as the lack of a reliable starter beyond CC, Andy or AJ.”
LMAO. The Yanks were 6-0 this season in ballgames started by Chad Gaudin. Just because Girardi didn’t want to start him in the postseason doesn’t make him dogshit.
Truth is, Gaudin had a pretty nice season, and you’re calling him a weakness? Spoiled Yankee fan.
I didn’t mention Gaudin specifically and I wasn’t implying that he was ‘dogshit’, all I said is that the 4th spot in the rotation was not a reliable one for the WS.
That may *sound* spoiled, but you want to have at least one guy in the 4th game of a playoff series give you at least 5 innings, ala Joe Blanton.
Gaudin looked good in spots, admittedly, but the need for his services didn’t arise until the World Series, and at that point he hadn’t pitched in a month. Would you *honestly* throw someone into a World Series Game 5 who hadn’t thrown a live pitch in a month?
Ok you positive posse bastards, I voted a celebratory 10 this week. If ever there was a week to throw all evaluation rationales out the window, this is it.
You unprincipled son of a bitch…
Jane, you ignorant slut.
Bagged out, Dried-up slunk-meat like you and Michelle Triola know the rules…
Love the old SNL reference. Very funny.
“Season Record: 103-59 (915 RS, 753 RA), won AL East by 8 games, finished with the best record in MLB by 6 games, won 27th World Series.”
Translation: Total Domination.
10.
Fuggedaboudit.
Really the poll should be only 10’s.
10, YOU JUST WON THE MOTHERFUCKING WORLD SERIES, BATMAN
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/wp-...../photo.jpg (safe)
Yeah, and now it’s over and the Yanks minors are still weak and there’s the looming issue of Damon, Matsui, and/or a FA… Don’t get me wrong, I’m still on cloud nine from the championship! YEay!
My confidence level: 10.
If we go out and sign John Lackey and Matt Holliday, my confidence level will skyrocket up to an 8.
IF Holliday’d be willing to take a short term deal–2-4 years–I still think he’d be the best bet for LF. He can hit and can play defense (despite the NLDS). However, the chances of that happening are pretty damn slim.
IF Holliday’d be willing to take a short term deal–2-4 years–I still think he’d be the best bet for LF.
I concede your point. If things were different, they wouldn’t be the same.
However, the chances of that happening are pretty damn slim.
Change “pretty damn slim” to “totally fucking impossible”, and then you’d have an accurate statement.
MLBTR has us inking Lackey (well, at least Tim over there does). Personally, don’t see it. Can’t see us saddled with another 5/$80M+ pitching contract
Absolutely not. I’d pass on Lackey all together.
I wouldn’t bother with Lackey. If anything, I’d save the money for next year, when the fourth best free agent starter will be Matt Cain. It’s a ridiculous FA class.
definitely, mike.
wasn’t one of the reasons we spent so much last year the fact that this was a down FA class? well, one of the reason we signed tex at least
Winter of ‘10-’11 FA class highlights (asterisk indicates option of some sort for 2011 season):
C
Ramon Hernandez CIN
Victor Martinez BOS
Joe Mauer MIN
IF
Lance Berkman HOU *
Paul Konerko CWS
Derrek Lee CHC
Carlos Pena TB
Albert Pujols STL *
Freddy Sanchez SF
Christian Guzman WAS
J.J. Hardy MIL
Derek Jeter NYY
Jhonny Peralta CLE *
Jose Reyes NYM *
Jimmy Rollins PHI *
Jack Wilson SEA
Scott Rolen CIN
OF
Carl Crawford TB
Coco Crisp KC
David DeJesus KC *
Adam Dunn WAS
Jermaine Dye CWS
Brad Hawpe COL *
Jason Kubel MIN *
Magglio Ordonez DET *
Jayson Werth PHI
SP
Bronson Arroyo CIN *
Josh Beckett BOS
Joe Blanton PHI
Jeremy Bonderman DET
Matt Cain SF *
Jorge De La Rosa COL
Jeff Francis COL *
Roy Halladay TOR
Aaron Harang CIN *
Cliff Lee PHI
Ted Lilly CHC
Kevin Millwood TEX
Jamie Moyer PHI
Vicente Padilla LAD
Ian Snell SEA *
Javier Vazquez ATL
Brandon Webb ARI
Chris Young SD *
RP
Jeremy Affeldt SF
Jesse Crain MIN
Scott Downs TOR
Chad Durbin PHI
Jason Frasor TOR
Brian Fuentes LAA *
Matt Guerrier MIN
Aaron Heilman CHC
Chad Qualls ARZ
Jon Rauch MIN
Mariano Rivera NYY
J.C. Romero PHI *
Scott Shields LAA
Huston Street COL
Matt Thornton CWS *
Kerry Wood CLE *
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....-2011.html
Cashman: http://i.ehow.com/images/Globa.....r_Full.jpg (safe)
Mmmmmmmmmmm, open-faced club sandwich, aghrhghrhrhhghrhrgrr
OMG, Mauer. And right near the end of JoPo’s contract too…
Meh, don’t get your hopes up. I still bet he plays in Minnesota his entire career.
They’re not a bad organization, they contend annually, and it’s his hometown. He’s a god there. Mauer in Minn is bigger than Jeter here.
and with their new stadium, they’ll have extra $ to sign him (in theory)
Bigger than Farve? Ricky Rubio(!)?
So you think he never gets to FA?
Who are you putting ahead of Cain? I see Halladay and Cliff Lee. But the only other possibility I see is Brandon Webb, and he has a serious injury. Maybe Beckett (super overrated)?
yeah, must be beckett
Yeah, definitely. Cain’s been a 3.5-4.0 WAR player the last three years in the NL West, Beckett’s been at least a 5.3 WAR guy in the AL East during that time.
you have beckett ahead of lee?
No, ahead of Cain.
1. Halladay
2. Lee
3. Beckett
4. Cain
In a year or two when Beckett continues to fight injuries and gets older while Cain continues to improve and mature, I think Cain may surpass Beckett.
Interestingly, here’s Cot’s notes on Cain’s option situation, emphasis mine:
Not sure how to read that. Does it not vest if he hits 400IP combined in 09-10? Or does it not vest only if he finishes the 2010 season on the DL AND he did not pitch 400 IP combined in 09-10? My guess is the latter.
Meaning, it looks like a high probability he doesn’t meet any of the conditions that would void the final year of his deal, the Giants pick up his option, and he’s not part of next winter’s FA class.
Does it not vest if he hits 400IP combined in 09-10? Or does it not vest only if he finishes the 2010 season on the DL AND he did not pitch 400 IP combined in 09-10? My guess is the latter.
Agreed, I read it as if he wins 2010 Cy or has 60GS (09-10)or has 400 IP (09-10) then it vests regardless of his injury status at the end of 2010.
Otherwise if he hasn’t reached any of those milestones it can vest if he’s not hurt, and reaches the mystery milestones.
The only way we sign Lackey is if Andy Pettitte retires.
Otherwise, it’s just flat out impossible. Outside of Andy, we already have four starting pitchers under contract written into the rotation, and they’re CC, AJ, Joba, and Hughes. And they’re not written in pencil, they’re carved in fucking stone. There are 5 spots in the rotation. JOBA AND HUGHES ARE EACH GETTING ONE OF THOSE SPOTS IN THE ROTATION. NOTHING WILL CHANGE THIS.
It’s either gonna be
A) CC-AJ-Andy-Joba-Hughes
or
B) CC-AJ-Insert Marquee Free Agent Pitcher X here if and only if Andy Pettitte decides to hang them up and go back to Texas with the wife and kids-Joba-Hughes
There are no other truly feasible permutations. We’re not going to sign Lackey (or Harden, or Sheets, or Wolf, or Pinero, or whomever) and bump one of Joba or Hughes from the rotation. Not gonna happen, no matter how much some of the mediots want it to happen.
I hope you’re right.
and what if andy does ride off into the sunset. would you prefer lackey at 5/$80M+ or someone like wolf (lefty to replace a lefty) at 2/$16M?
Given those two options, I’ll take Wolf.
I’m only giving Lackey three years. 5 is way too much.
oh, i agree. but you know that aj’s contract is going to be his starting point
Which is why we have no real interest in talking to him. He’s already priced himself outside of our desired parameters, which is both what he should do and what we should do.
To anti-paraphrase Buster Olney, Lackey is not a good fit for us.
agreed. hopefully cash feels the same way
Gotta go with the latter. Far too many years and far too much money to throw at a guy at that age. Better off getting an innings-eater that may not be as good as Pettitte than committing to Lackey and having a better pitcher for two, maybe three years and absolutely killing your flexibility in the coming years and paying top-dollar for his decline.
said the same thing about aj. actually, still saying it
Regardless of your feelings on AJ, we now have him, and yeah, it is a fairly large contract—we can’t commit AJ money again, especially for a guy that would be a fringe #2, closer to #3, starter.
Yeah Mike, in all do respect to your fellow writer over that MLBTR, I think I will steal a phrase from Mr. SmithCarlos and call him batshit insane. Last year, his “predictions” came in at 26% with half of the correct guesses being re-signs.
He should change his job description from “writer” to “wronger”. Badumpbumb.
Don’t try the veal.
Agreed. It was a long way to go to make a terrible joke–attempt.
Yeah . . . . And he didn’t even spell “do” correctly (”with all due respect”).
I don’t believe in homophones.
Are you homophonophobic?
http://buuurn.com/
Also, Tim sent that to us to check out and comment on, and I told him they weren’t going to sign Lackey. I tried.
TRY NOT!
Do. Or do not. There is no try.
Boy . . . you are tough.
Unlike Mondesi I have self control, and thus I am staying 9.
Them’s fighting words.
(Looks up from massive orgy with three cigarettes hanging from lips while drenched in whiskey and eating the Vermonster)
Say wha?
You just described my college years. Though I think it was closer to “massive ogres” than orgies for me. Semantics, amirite?
I don’t know how you sleep at night.
(PS: That was hysterical.)
I love the fact that last week’s Confidence Poll was at a year high 9.27. I guess being only 1 win from a World Series title will give people confidence.
January 1 through Inning 8 of Game 6 of the World Series: “I’ve got a bad feeling about this team. We suck, we’re deeply flawed, we’re gonna crash and burn miserably. Confidence Level: 4″
Inning 9 of Game 6 of the World Series: “This team totally rocks. Confidence Level: 10!”
The day after Game 6 of the World Series: “We got lucky, this team still sucks, we’re deeply flawed, we’re gonna crash and burn miserably. Confidence Level: 4.1.”
I started the season at 8. About halfway through the season I moved up to 9. That’s what I voted again today. If and when Cashmoney signs A-rold I can see my self moving up to a ten. I’ll also move up to ten if we get one more young position player in AA or higher that shows serious potential.
I’ll also move up to ten if we get one more young position player in AA or higher that shows serious potential.
While I’m not trying to tell you that your rationale system isn’t justified (it seems fine to me), I’d just like to point out for posterity’s sake that the two position players we DO have above AA who show serious potential, Montero and AJax, are two really good position player prospects, and that twosome frankly can go toe-to-toe with any other organizations prospect bench in such a category grouping.
Montero and AJax are equal to or greater than any other org’s AA and above position prospects corps. (And Romine will be in AA next year as well, if that helps.)
Yeah that’s why I said “one more.” If we can manage to have one more prospect rise to that elite status I think we’ll be primed to dominate not only for next season, but for the next 5-10 years as well.
Just my two cents. I see where you’re coming from: you don’t want merely a good farm system, you want a stacked to the freaking gills farm system.
I smell ya.
You mean like the Red Sox farm system? You’re dreaming. Lars Anderson’s HAIR can EASILY get Felix Hernandez though I don’t know if that’s worth it.
/Gammons’d
My sources tell me the Red Sox and Mariners are on the verge of completing a fairly unprecedented deal. Boston would trade Junichi Tazawa to Seattle for Felix Hernandez, but to balance out the lopsided nature of the trade, Tazawa would still be able to pitch for Boston on the days he’s not scheduled to start for Seattle.
I’m also hearing that Jed Lowrie’s been so impressive down in Dominican instructionals that the team has decided to decline the Marlins proposed trade of Manny Delcarmen for Hanley Ramirez straight up, because they’re confident that Lowrie will outproduce Hanley by June at the latest. Theo is now expected to trade Delcarmen to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell, the rights to Donavan Tate, and having Dave Winfield and Tony Gwynn’s Hall of Fame Padres caps switched to Red Sox caps.
For Diamond Cutters, I’m Peter Gammons, ESPN.
Haha, well done.
The Marlins give us a good run for our money with Stanton and Dominguez. Ditto that for Pittsburgh with Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata. Outside of that, nothing really comes to mind. Maybe the Mets with Martinez and Davis?
braves: heyward + anyone
Heyward is a monster, but after him, who do you have at AA or higher? Freddie Freeman? He’s kinda meh.
according to BA’s recently released top 10, freeman IS their #2 prospect
Isn’t “Aroldis” a cool enough name as is? BTW is it me, does he not look a lot like Usain Bolt?
http://cache.daylife.com/image.....w/610x.jpg
http://www.topnews.in/sports/f.....lt1_0.jpeg
Is Girardi going to call him “Arold-ee,” or “Chappy?”
I don’t think there is much of a resemblance b/w the two.
ChapRoldie.
John Sterling strike-out call. “He just got Dis’d.”
He Ah-Rolled him up like a blunt!
/Pawlikowski’d
They all look the same to you, eh Andy?
Those two do. All Jamaicans look a like to me. I see no difference between Bob Marley and Justin Masterson.
(golf clap)
I’m Jamaican, and I approve of this joke.
I am at a lowly 9. I know, I am a terrible person.
Here are my causes for “concern”:
-AJ makes me nervous. I don’t like having a 1.4 WHIP pitcher who leads the league in walks and wild pitches as our #2.
-Wang might never pitch for the Yankees again, which would be a damn shame.
-Pettitte could retire, and he would be very tough to replace.
I am not at all concerned about the lineup. The Yankees will figure something out when it comes to Damon, Matsui, or a big FA signing to replace them.
My retorts:
-AJ makes me nervous. I don’t like having a 1.4 WHIP pitcher who leads the league in walks and wild pitches as our #2.
That’s fair. However, If Andy comes back for another year, and Joba and Hughes continue on their normal development roads that all young starters experience, by this time next year, AJ might not be our #2 starter, he might be our #5 starter. No, that’s not hyperbole. Joba and Hughes are both thiiiiiiiiiiiisclose to dominance. With talented kids, sometimes it’s just a sudden flick of a lightswitch.
-Wang might never pitch for the Yankees again, which would be a damn shame.
Agreed. His loss may ultimately be no great shakes, though. Excepting Wang, we still have CC-AJ-Andy-Joba-Hughes right now, plus IPK-Gaudin-Mitre ready to contribute immediately, plus Nova-McAllister-Bleich-Vizcaino-Heredia-ManBan-Brackman-Betances all cooking on the back burner, and we’re the likely favorites to land Chapman. We’ve got arms.
-Pettitte could retire, and he would be very tough to replace.
Agreed. But, he’s not irreplaceable. I’d prefer not to replace him, but he’s far from irreplacable.
I’d go as far as to say that Pettitte is irreplaceable, in that nowhere else can you find a guy who is a strong bet to give you about 200 innings and an above-average ERA on a one-year deal.
He is not, however, indispensable.
by this time next year, AJ might not be our #2 starter, he might be our #5 starter. No, that’s not hyperbole. Joba and Hughes are both thiiiiiiiiiiiis close to dominance. With talented kids, sometimes it’s just a sudden flick of a lightswitch.
Yes, that’s not homerism or anything. Joba sucked this year, and Hughes spent the last 4 months of the season in the bullpen. And yet you’re ready to say they might surpass Burnett in the rotation.
I know you’re a pretty well of poster around here, but I can’t possibly agree with that sentiment at this point in time.
Joba sucked this year
From two threads over:
For the first three months — and not coincidentally, through his first 110.2 innings — he was masterful. After 20 starts, Joba was 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA.
He’ll be fine, he just ran out of gas.
I voted 7. I’m a little bit concerned that it took 6 games to win the World Series.
/Costanza’d
This guy… This is not my kind of guy.
Between you and me, Elaine, I think I’ve got a foot odor problem.
The future that concerns me most is in the field down the road. I’ve got faith in the Yankees’ pitching prospects, mostly ’cause there are a good deal of them, but not too much in the position players outside of Jackson, Montero, and Romine.
My thoughts exactly. I mentioned above that one more position prospect would really put us over the top.
Word. Obviously we’ll have to wait a few years to see what we have in Heathcott, but he could be that guy.
Murphy and Sanchez are quality young prospects too. Plus DeLeon. There’s promising green shoots there.
It would be swell if we had some middle infield prospects. It’s all C, CF or corner OF spots. It’s great to have C and CF stocked, but it’s really slim pickings outside of the OF and backstop.
Adams, Suttle and Russo don’t excite me. Neither does Corban Joseph.
His name is Corban JosephMultipass.
I always wondered privately why he was called multi-pass. I’m guess it has to do with errors or strikeouts?
Are you still mad we didn’t get Sano and haven’t signed Cyclops Mateo?
Fifth Element.
LeeluDallasMultiPass
I’m PISSED we didn’t get Sano. Those big spending Twins!!! How can the Yankees compete with a Billionaire Family like the Pohlad’s? Wagner Mateo still may join the Empire. I still have my “EYE” on him. bahahahaha.
He is Corban JosephMultipass, because “The Fifth Element” is an awesome movie.
Amazing.
http://elizabethcarroll.files......pass11.jpg
Dude CoJo quietly had a very good year. Not many kids opb .380 in their first season of A-ball. He has a very bright future. He did that wile playing 2 positions he’s never played before. He’ll have a true breakout year next year, mark it down.
Friendly bet he slumps big-time this year, pat?
Yes sir. Once they decide to make him a full time 2b or 3b I think he’ll hit even better than this year.
Confidence level = 10.
Tim dierkes thinks the Yanks have serious enough rotation issues beyond CC and AJ such that Dierkes has John Lackey signing with the Yanks. Interesting take , but I think other squads will be more aggressive in pursuing Lackey.
Under what scenario would anyone here think a Lackey signing makes sense?
Under what scenario would anyone here think a Lackey signing makes sense?
If CC, AJ and Pettitte gets injured.
really doesn’t, reggie. not for what he’ll be asking. read the discussion above
I really think Cash will shy away from signing another 30 yr old pitcher to a 5 year deal. Lackey will receive a 5 year offer, just not from the Yanks.
Tim Dierkes thinks the Yanks have serious enough rotation issues beyond CC and AJ such that Dierkes has John Lackey signing with the Yanks.
Tim Dierkes is wrong.
We heard a lot during the season that Hal agreed to sign Tex only after Cash agreed to cut payroll this offseason.
Now, who knows if that’s accurate or not. But it’s at least possible that the Yanks might not make any moves of consequence. I can read the rants from the Cashman haters now.
Just don’t understand where the market for Johnny Damon is. He was invaluable for us this past season, but can’t see how other teams would shell out BIG bucks and multi-years for player who cannot throw at all and is a marginal/poor outfielder. He will return to Bronx for 1 or 2 years at severe pay cut.The Yankees are the only team he makes sense for.
This is not a knock on JD; it’s just that in the curent economical environment he has limited value to other teams.
Defensive evaluation is pretty poor in a lot of front offices, and a Proven Winner like Damon who just came off of a very good World Series and had overall excellent offensive numbers this season will tantalize front offices who want to show their fanbase they’re serious about winning.
Bobby Abreu just set the market number. Abreu is very similar to Damon in offense and defense and got 2 years, $19 million (with an $9 million option that vests with 550 PA’s and a $1 million buyout).
With the free agent list for 2010 and 11 as posted above and with all the non-tenders expected this year and in 10 and 11 baseball is fast approaching as reality the Charlie Finley idea of everyone is a free agent every year. Whatever you can say good or bad about him the man was way ahead of his time on this idea and many others.
Very true. He proposed raising the mound years before it happened in 1968 and also proposed using bright orange baseballs to increase offense and excitement in the game.
He was the first to sell off big free agents like Vida Blue and Catfish Hunter.
He was truly a visionary.
My first 10. Fuck yeah!
i voted a 1 because last week was a different era
[/alex gonzalez’d
jk, i voted a ten
Confidence level for next year: 10.
I cannot freaking wait for a rotation of CC-A.J.-Andy-Joba-Hughes with Montero, Jackson, and Champman DOTF.
Confidence level in my ability to not go crazy this winter: -1.
I’m with Matt ACTY/BBD and The Honorable Congressman Mondesi with a celebratory 10. But beyond the excitement and joy of our 27th Championship I am an 8-9 as we go into the offseason and will vote that way next week.
There are so many variables up in the air between now and this time next year to really be at a 10 (unless you are tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside). There are so many question marks.
The main questions are (not necessarily in this order):
1) How will Joba perform as a starter.
Wang – Will he return to his 19 Win/year form? If so When? Will the Yankees even take a chance on that?
2) How will Hughes perform as a starter
3) Matsui
4) Damon
5) Pettitte
6) Multiple questions in the bull pen: Marte, D-Rob, Melancon, etc.
7) What will other teams do? The Phillies are a damn good team with a few pieces that fell off the cliff, namely Lidge and Hamels and Ryan Howard. Can we beat that team if all three of those players had a GREAT series? Not to mention other teams we have to get past first (the Red Sox and Angels are not going to roll over and die and do nothing to improve).
9) Injuries – We saw how devastating the loss of a player like Posada can be in 2008. We were fairly lucky in 2009. I keep my fingers crossed for the 2010 season as we have quite a few older players.
10) Luck – There is an element of luck especially in the playoffs. Will we have it run with us or against us in 2010.
I’m not even including questions about the farm system as I am looking at 2010 only. I can’t look beyond that because the 2010/2011 free agent class is so strong and anything can happen.
I truly appreciate the optimists on this site but would love to see someone comprehensively justify a TRUE 10 rating at this point. I could accept it last week, but now we are in a new season and all bets are off.
It’s going to be a fairly quiet off season for the Yankees in my opinion (especially compared to last year) and I am quietly optimistic for 2010.
What a great year and a great Championship in 2009!
I don’t understand how this isn’t a 10 right now. If it wasn’t a 10 last week at this time and isn’t a 10 now, when would your confidence be a 10!?
As I stated just above, I was at a 10 last week and GAVE a celebratory 10 this week but I am really at an 8-9 for the future of the Yankees. I don’t understand how anyone could be higher than an 8 or 9 right now.
B/c of the other organizations question marks? Question marks that are greater than the Defending World Champion NYY.
How does Boston improve their offense? And that’s if they even stay status quo w/ Bay.
Does LA/Anaheim/Orange County sign their FA’s? If not, who replaces them?
Does Hamels come back? Who’s their 3rd starter in Philly?
Does St. Louis resign Holiday or DeRosa? How do they get replaced?
LA Torres pitching staff? Does Manny get back to being Manny?
And those are the better teams after the NYY.
Granted . . . the Yankees do have fewer questions than other teams. But there are many variables in play that could run in favor or against the Yankees bewteen now and this time next year.
My point is that to be a a TRUE 10 right now, you’d have to feel GUARANTEED that everything falls the Yankees way. And as much of an optimist as I am, we don’t live in a perfect world (ie where everything goes the Yankee’s way every year). That’s a good thing. It wouldn’t even be sporting or any fun if the Yankees were guaranteed a World Championship every year. If that was the case everyone would stop watching (including me) and baseball would disappear.
You’ve made a halfway decent argument to somewhat refute my point #7, but you have a long way to go to justify being at Confidence Level 10.
According to our our friends who run RAB, we should NEVER, EVER make our decisions based on another team. Although they usually are referring to player acquisitions, I think it applies here as well. Just because the Sox have issues, doesn’t mean the Yankees don’t have issues as well. I won’t say i’m at a confidence level of 10 just because i think the sox are at an 8.