Nov
18

Heyman: Yankees ‘have a real reason to believe’ they can land Halladay

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Over the past three winters we’ve seen big name starting pitchers on the trade block. The Twins made clear their intentions to trade Johan Santana in the winter of 2007-2008. Last year, Jake Peavy dominated headlines for months, as the Padres fruitlessly dangled him in November. This year it’s Roy Halladay. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees have been connected to each player. They passed on both Santana and Peavy, but could it be different this year? SI’s Jon Heyman seems to think so.

What has changed between July, when the Yankees didn’t make a serious run at the available Halladay, and now? The Blue Jays’ general manager situation. They’ve since fired J.P. Ricciardi and have replaced him with Alex Anthopoulos. Learning from his predecessor’s mistakes, Anthopoulos has a different stance on Halladay than Ricciardi. The latter was hesitant to trade Halladay within the division, and also would not grant a trade partner a window to negotiate an extension. As we learned this morning, a Anthopoulos could allow an extension window. In his column this morning, Heyman notes that Anthopoulos will be more willing to deal within the AL East. Says the Jays’ GM:

“This isn’t the NBA where you’re talking about one of five guys on the floor at all times … If you have two trades that are identical, and one is in the division and one is outside, then it’s easy to go outside the division. However, if the trade is better inside the division, I think you have to take a look at it. We have to do what’s best for our organization.”

Another factor that has changed is Halladay’s price tag. As Heyman notes, the Red Sox made a large offer for Halladay in July, consisting of Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, and Nick Hagadone. From the Yankees, Heyman reminds us that the Blue Jays wanted a package centering around both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. The Blue Jays won’t get anything close to that this winter. They still should trade Halladay, but will have to accept a lesser package of prospects. That will make him more attractive to both the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Still, I’m not sure the Yankees will be serious players in this sweepstakes. They have their top two pitchers locked up for four and six more years, and they also have a number of promising young arms to complement them. Adding Halladay would be a good move for any team, but considering the price they’d have to pay, they might opt to stick with their guys and wait to see if Halladay reaches free agency next winter. I say this because even though Anthopoulos will deal more openly than Ricciardi, the Yankees have shown that they’re not keen on paying twice for a player.

Anthopoulos’s willingness to deal within the division will clearly open an avenue for the Yanks. All things equal he’d deal Halladay elsewhere, but if the Yankees have the superior offer he’s not going to spurn them. That means, however, that the Yankees would have to top any offer from another team, and the other team in question probably needs Halladay more than the Yankees. Unless the market is truly limited to just the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox (which I doubt), it stands to reason that another team would be willing to offer more for a player they need, and who would be a luxury for the Yankees.

The negotiation window also makes Halladay more attractive, though I’m not sure it’s a tipping point for the Yankees. Heyman talked to a GM who thought that Halladay could get a “Santana or Sabathia deal.” Halladay will be 33 early in the 2010 season, so I’m not sure any team will be willing to offer him a six-year extension, especially if it comes at $23 million per season. Maybe the Yankees would be willing to offer a four-year, $92 million extension (so they’d have him for five years), but again, that would mean paying a bounty in prospects and then doling out $23 million per season. That just doesn’t seem to fit the team’s M.O.

No one can rule out the Yankees acquiring Roy Halladay. He’s clearly available, and the Yankees have already been connected to him. Given the team’s past behavior, though, I doubt they get too far in negotiations with the Blue Jays. They seem more apt to make a deal for John Lackey, who will just cost money, or to take a chance on a high upside player like Ben Sheets. That’s the way Brian Cashman has operated, and unless something drastic changes in the Halladay situation, I think he’ll pitch 2010 elsewhere.

Categories : Hot Stove League

213 Comments»

  1. K.B.D. says:

    “They still should trade Halladay, but will have to accept a lesser package of prospects.”

    Melky/IPK get it done?

  2. nirzhor says:

    ‘Yankees ‘have a real reason to believe’ they can land Halladay’
    i think we all can report that

  3. Counterargument:

    It’s true that a good GM will be patient and hold on to his youngsters. But it’s also true that a good GM will recognize when it’s time to trade prospects and which ones are tradeable. Maybe Halladay is their guy, and Cashman will sell some of the chips he has.

    I won’t be disappointed to see Halladay elsewhere next year, but if the price is right, I’m more comfortable bringing him on than I was Johan Santana.

  4. dkidd says:

    what are the chances we sign sheets or duschsher (spelling) from the a’s?

  5. A.D. says:

    Eh I don’t see the Yanks parting with Joba, Hughes, or Montero, and likely not AJAX. So you’re leaving it to Nova, Z-Mac, and Romine to get it done. I just don’t see it.

  6. Drew says:

    I only like Halladay if we can negotiate an extension before the deal is finalized.
    I’m assuming they’ll have to get one of Joba or Hughes, then 2 prospects, maybe a major league reliever too. I’d hope Jesus is untouchable.

    Joba/Phil, Romine and one more chip. Does that get it done? Again, we can’t be giving up Joba/Phil if Halladay is only coming in for a year then hitting free agency.

    • Reggie C. says:

      maybe. if by “chip” you mean Austin Jackson.

    • TheLastClown says:

      But do you really want to give up either of them anyway?

      I mean, Cliff Lee hits FA in the next class. You might be able to pick up Halladay, assuming he doesn’t negotiate an extension w/ whomever, in that same class.

      The class after that has the ever-alluring King Felix.

      Why trade away two young high-upside guys who could BOTH become viable 1/2 starters in the best case scenario?

      Even if one or both of them doesn’t pan out as a starter, they’ve both got extremely bright futures in the Yanks BP. And all the super-fun blasphemy that we throw around on here aside, Mo’s not going to close forever. A failed starter Joba or Hughes would be a great replacement candidate, if of course they don’t stick in the rotation.

      Just seems a bit premature to me, blowing a load of prospects for something you can get in FA in one or both of the next two years.

      All that said, Anthopoulos is just posturing, because having the big dogs in the bidding will drive up potential packages from other clubs, IMHO.

      • Drew says:

        Halladay is arguably the best pitcher in the game, if we can have him for 2010-14, I’d like to make that happen. That said, Cash isn’t going to over pay for him, we don’t need him. He sure would be a nice shiny toy but I’m kind of indifferent. Like I said, we don’t need him and as a result, someone else will probably come in with a better offer that we should not attempt to match.

        • TheLastClown says:

          But you said you liked the idea contingent on an extension, and would be comfortable with losing one of Joba/Hughes.

          I’m saying that if he doesn’t get traded to what he feels is a perpetual contender, he’ll hit FA anyway, and we could get him at that time.

          I don’t think he’ll decline too much, so I wouldn’t be averse to adding him after next year.

          But there is NO reason to trade Joba or Hughes.

          Honestly, I wouldn’t even want to trade AJax, being that he’s the closest viable position prospect.

  7. dkidd says:

    i like our recent strategy of trading for position players and signing pitchers. i’d rather wait and hope he’s available to sign.

  8. Steve S says:

    I don’t want to make this a forum for ripping the Mets, but I don’t get all these talks about them acquiring Halladay. I know they have some prospects in low A (and I plead ignorance on the status of their farm system) but I just dont see what package of players can really land them Halladay, unless Toronto pulls a Bill Smith and wants less than he would from the East, which this article indicates the opposite is true.

    This leads me to my second point, considering the extension talks from earlier, what teams will realistically be in this? The Dodgers should be in on it but considering that nasty divorce I doubt they get involved. Maybe the Cubs, I know their system has some talent in AA and AAA. Aside from the Yankees and Boston, I don’t see many teams with the combination of prospects and $ to get him, if we are talking about an extension. I’m really asking just because these conversations regarding Joba or Phil being included. How many teams are going to include cheap/young major league talent in the package? The Mets don’t have any. The Red Sox may be able to if they gave them Bucholtz or Bard. I really think that Joba, Phil and Jesus should really be off limits. What is the real market for this guy? There is no doubting his impact and talent, but as a 31 year old with a ton of innings on his arm, I just see whoever gets him overpaying, considering that you would either only get him for a year or have to extend him for X amount of years.

    • John says:

      Think Steve S makes a good point here. It’s a great question: what truly is the market for Halladay? (Hint: would love to see a post on that guys!) But I actually think it might be larger than many of the lazy MSM writers make it out to be. Like with Holliday, they just keep saying “like always it will come down to NY and Boston.” But I’m not so sure. New Toronto GM, Alex A., needs to make his mark and therefore will be creative as possible. Off the bat, we can eliminate for payroll reasons: Det, Hou, KC, Cin, Col, Min, Cle, Oak, TB, SD, Fla and Pit. But that leaves 18 teams, many of whom A) have largeish payrolls, B) do have top tier talent at the major and/or minor league levels and C) were very competitive last year and with a Halladay could have made it to post-season. Some of the teams that fit ALL of those criteria include: CHW, TEX, SEA, ATL, CHC and SF. In addition: LAD, LAA, NYM, PHI, MIL, ARI and BAL all COULD be players for Roy for various reasons, upwards of 15 teams if you include NY and BOS. I think this will be fascinating to watch, but ultimately I don’t think he ends up in either NY or BOS.

  9. crawdaddie says:

    I don’t have any evidence, but I don’t believe that Red Sox trade rumor from last summer.

  10. Here’s the problem, as I see it:

    1) Joba, Hughes, and Montero are off limits. That means the deal would have to be AJax (centerpiece) + one of the close-to-the-majors pitchers (Nova/McAllister/Kennedy) + one of the high-upside youngsters (Vizcaino/ManBan/Heredia/Brackman) + some other lower-upside kid in the system somewhere for extra depth (Laird/CoJo/Sublett/etc.)

    So let’s say the package is AJax/Nova/Vizcaino/Laird.

    2) With no Joba/Hughes/Montero in the package, we can put together a decent collection of talent for the Jays, but someone else can trump that, fairly easily. I love AJax and think he’s one of the better young prospects in the game, but he does have flaws in his game, noticeably his K rate and lack of power. If Anthopolous is picking from an AJax-centric package from us and, say, a Wood package from the Angels, or a Ethan Martin package from the Dodgers, or a or a Vitters package from the Cubs, etc., I think we come up short.

    • SM says:

      Agreed. The yanks have no reason to over pay.
      When the Johan deal was announced, did you think that package should have been topped?

      • Yes, but I think that package couldn’t have been topped, because I don’t think they priced Santana to us the same way they priced Santana to the Mets. I think they overplayed their hand, but the Twins most definitely had reason to charge a premium price to move Santana to the Red Sox or Yankees.

        You can disagree with their strategy in the abstract, but I think that strategy has way more merit than people often give it credit for. Yes, they didn’t get premier players for Santana, but they did get the benefit of moving him far away from themselves and their competitors, and that’s still worth a lot.

      • jsbrendog says:

        when that deal was announced i thought, for once and only once, ever, that omar minaya did something right. he fleeced the twins and stoneman.

        • Omar benefited from a perfect storm.

          The only three teams who could realistically afford to trade for and then extend Santana to a record-setting 20M+ AAV contract were the Yankees, Sox, and Mets, and the Twins were obviously willing to take back less in return to keep Santana away from their two AL rivals and tormentors.

          The Twins were backed into a corner. It was either take the Mets package and recoup something, take the better package from NYY or BOS and then watch Santana pitch you out of the playoffs for the next 7 years, or let him walk and sign with NYY or BOS anyway.

          Given that set of eventualities, they eliminated the second and third and judged the Mets offer as a Hobson’s choice.

    • Reggie C. says:

      Oh yea. Totally.

      An Ajax fronted package loses out to any number of other packages. The RS beat it if they start it off with Westmoreland.

    • Lanny says:

      Why would Joba be off limits?

      You have to give to get. He would really be off limits when it comes to getting the best starter? I doubt that.

  11. pat says:

    It would break my heart to have to part with Ajax and/or McAllister and/or Romine and or Viz etc, but the truth is not all of these kids are going to reach their potential and should be considered viable trade pieces for the right price in the right deal. As much as it kills me to say this, I’d give up an ajax/zmac/banuelos to secure Roy for 2010 and 4 or 5 years beyond. Adding him to the rotation would pretty much guarantee we win any postseason series. His easy mechanics, impeccable command and pitch movement as well as his dirty good changeup leads me to believe he would age very well. As a result, I would be comfortable giving him a long term deal.

    I love our prospects as much as anybody here, but getting Halladay would most certainly make the Yanks heavy WS favorites for the next few years.

  12. Jake K says:

    Halladay–given his age and cost in terms of dollars and prospects–makes sense for a team that needs that last piece to put them into championship contention. The Yankees don’t need him to win a World Series next year or the year after.

    Why pay the ransom for Halladay (and for his likely decline years) when they already have a good to potentially great rotation (sign someone like Sheets and it’s even more stacked)? Then, in a year, they could potentially add Lee, Webb, Felix or even Halladay himself to replace Pettitte, surrendering nothing more than money.

    Every team could benefit from having another ace like Halladay. But they should only pay what he’s going to cost if they absolutely need him. This team doesn’t need him next year.

  13. radnom says:

    Any pitcher except JobaHughes.
    Any position player except Montero.

    Does that get it done? Eh, probably not.

    But an Ajax, Romine, IPK, [add another pitcher of choice] package would at least be competitive for one year of service and fairly reasonable from the Yankee’s end.

    • A.D. says:

      Yeah I mean technically something like Nova/ZMac/Romine/Random piece has a better chance of solid MLB impact than a 1st & sandwich pick, but doesn’t mean they’re taking it.

    • I’d imagine with J.P. Arenciba and Brian Jeroloman in the system, the Jays would probably prefer that the top three prospects in the trade be AJax + two pitchers rather than AJax + Romine + one pitcher.

      JMHO.

      • radnom says:

        Maybe I wasn’t clear (or I’m misunderstanding you) but I was throwing out there Ajax + Romine + IPK (imo, best untouchable pitching prospect in my scenario) + another pitcher whoever they wanted.

        All I was really getting at was if the Yankees said “take any four players not named Hughes, Joba or Montero” it would be a somewhat decent offer and I wouldn’t mind giving it up.

        • No, we understand each other. I’m just saying, separate of your main “No Hughes/Joba/Montero” point that I think that the Jays would want two quality pitchers in addition to AJax instead of one quality pitcher and a quality catcher. I think they’d ask for Arodys, ManBan, or Heredia as the third player, rather than asking for Romine.

          We agree on the main point, I’m just commenting on the fine print.

          • radnom says:

            I see what you mean. I was confused because I originally meant give them the two quality pitchers PLUS Romine.

            I figure with the diminished status of Ajax, any deal would require an additional position player, but that is just me speculating on the Blue Jay’s desire. Hell, I would be fine with Ajax + any three pitchers they want.

    • Reggie C. says:

      Since when does Romine carry strong trade value?

      If you’re not giving up any of the trio, you let Anthopolous get any 4 minor leaguers he wants. Romine isnt in that 4. jmo.

      • radnom says:

        you let Anthopolous get any 4 minor leaguers he wants

        Thats essentially what I was going four. Who would replace Romine then?
        Do you think Ajax + 3 pitchers would be preferred by other teams?

        • Reggie C. says:

          Yeah. This quartet of pitchers: Arodys, Manny B., Zmac, and Nova are expendable & (imo) superior trade chips than Romine.

          • radnom says:

            I wouldn’t disagree with that. Especially considering (as tsjc) the makeup of Toronto’s system. But yeah, each team values prospects differently, it honestly could be any of those guys.

            • Yeah, I’m not saying they wouldn’t value Romine, he’s a quality chip. But getting at least two young SP prospects and one quality young position player is generally speaking the baseline minimum return for trading an ace. With AJax fronting the deal, I bet they want high-upside pitchers rounding out the package rather than another catcher who’s bat is just solid and not spectacular.

              Young starters have a higher bust-rate than young position players, so picking Arodys/ManBan/Heredia/Brackman over Romine is riskier, but you generally want to find at least one replacement rotation candidate when you trade away a starter, so you want to ask for two or more to increase your chances of finding one.

    • Lanny says:

      If the Yankees feel Joba isnt going to be a top pitcher he should go. Now. If they think Montero isnt great. So should he. But those are things we dont know. We dont know their evaluations of players. 98% of you have never seen Montero in person let alone hit and field.

      • Again, dude, we KNOW how they value Joba, Hughes, and Montero. They value all of them as future stars. That’s why they’ve been off limits before, that’s why they’re off limits now, that’s why they’ll be off limits in the future.

        Your repeated posting of this line (under all your aliases) doesn’t carry much water.

        • Stuckey says:

          “Again, dude, we KNOW how they value Joba, Hughes, and Montero. They value all of them as future stars. That’s why they’ve been off limits before, that’s why they’re off limits now, that’s why they’ll be off limits in the future.”

          Dude, last week you KNEW Cashman would never even call the Jays about Halladay and apparently (according to Heymman) they did.

          Let’s maybe chill on the things we “know”…

          • Dude, read the post again.

            That’s not what I said. What I said was, I doubt that we needed to inquire about Halladay, because we know the framework of a trade. We still do. I called bullshit on Heyman.. who, not incidentally, is the SAME PERSON SOURCED IN THIS RUMOR, which I’m also calling bullshit on.

            • Stuckey says:

              Good gracious…

              You didn’t say you “doubted” they would. You said they wouldn’t, which remains a vastly overstated and unnecessary way of making your point.

              That you seemingly remained committed to the notion to the Yanks wouldn’t simply do periodic due diligence to the point of calling Heyman’s reporting “bullshit” based on nothing but your own assumption is pure stubbornness.

              That said, NONE of us know for certain Hughes, Chamberlain and Montero are untouchable, and will be in the future.

              Doesn’t mean they aren’t, or are, they might very well be, but any FAN claiming it as a absolute certainty is again, just being stubborn.

  14. nathan says:

    Which would be more painful

    Halladay or AGon to Red Sox

    Would the following work for Halladay

    Montero/Ajax/ZMac/IPK

    or

    Romine/Ajax/Zmac/IPK/ManBan

    • Teix is the Man says:

      WAAAAY too much in both proposals (A-GON would be far more painful)

      • radnom says:

        I don’t know if the second proposal is “WAAAY” too much.

        Same players but

        Ajax + IPK + [Romine, Zmac, ManBan](choose two of three)

        is reasonable.

        Agreed that AGON would be more painful, but they would have to sign over rights to their farm for 10 years to get him which would soften the blow.

      • nathan says:

        finally with trades I have realized if its the Yanks you have to bleed more… it was true with Santana and with others.. no one is gonna give the Yanks a break.. any tie proposal we dont get the ‘target’

        if as purported Montero doesnt pan out behind the plate, he is a cheaper Matt Stairs.. to go from Posada-lite to Stairs is a major drop in trade value… also, i expect Ajax to only be slightly better than Gardner… if Ajaxmatches Cabrera thats a pretty good ceiling… his BABIP and lack of power are disconcerting

        IPK is a serious risk, and his clock has been running.. you are gonna lose him in a trade sooner..he aint got no place in our rotation… ZMac i threw in there.. it could very well be Nova..

        in the 2nd proposal, Romine is a wild card.. i cant get a proper read from anywhere.. folks are high enough on him to call him Posada-lite with way less power but we have depth here… and ManBan its too early to say if he will be in our plans…

        I think a rotation of Buchholz-Halladay-Lester-Beckett will be death to AL for the next 5 years… i see AGon as a replacement for the lost power and OBP of big sloppy… that rotation gives me chills

        • radnom says:

          finally with trades I have realized if its the Yanks you have to bleed more… it was true with Santana and with others.. no one is gonna give the Yanks a break.. any tie proposal we dont get the ‘target’

          I could list a number of situations where this just is false, but I think Nick Swisher is a good enough example to prove this. Teams are going to take the best offer, regardless (trading out of division/league not withstanding).


          if as purported Montero doesnt pan out behind the plate, he is a cheaper Matt Stairs.. to go from Posada-lite to Stairs is a major drop in trade value… also, i expect Ajax to only be slightly better than Gardner… if Ajaxmatches Cabrera thats a pretty good ceiling… his BABIP and lack of power are disconcerting

          Really? If Montero reaches his offensive ceiling but can’t stick behind the plate he should still be better than Stairs.

          Speaking of which I don’t think you understand the concept of a ceiling. Yes, it is unlikely (< 50% chance) that Ajax ever becomes as good a major leaguer than Melky, but he has a much higher ceiling than that.

          IPK is a serious risk, and his clock has been running.. you are gonna lose him in a trade sooner..he aint got no place in our rotation… ZMac i threw in there.. it could very well be Nova..


          I think a rotation of Buchholz-Halladay-Lester-Beckett will be death to AL for the next 5 years… i see AGon as a replacement for the lost power and OBP of big sloppy… that rotation gives me chills

          How exactly do the Sox get AGon and Hallady?

          Not to mention sign Hallady and Beckett both for the next 5 years?

          • nathan says:

            I meant.. i would much rather them have AGon… not Halladay

          • I could list a number of situations where this just is false, but I think Nick Swisher is a good enough example to prove this. Teams are going to take the best offer, regardless (trading out of division/league not withstanding).

            The Swisher trade is largely an outlier. You’re talking about a player who was judged to be overpaid and a poor fit for his team, and they were looking to foist him off on a deep-pocketed team willing to gamble on a bounceback.

            That’s not analogous to the Halladay deal, nor the Santana deal or any other deal for any legit MLB star player.

            • radnom says:

              Outlier in terms of value given for value returned but I think its an example of how there is not a league-wide conspiracy to not trade talent to the Yankees unless you get completely blown away. Because there isn’t. In fact, common sense should be the only example needed.

              • Nobody said it was a “conspiracy”.

                What he said was, teams charge the Yankees and Red Sox premium prices for premium players. As they should.

                • radnom says:


                  Nobody said it was a “conspiracy”.

                  What he said was, teams charge the Yankees and Red Sox premium prices for premium players. As they should.

                  That is totally a conspiracy. Why would teams hurt themselves (take packages of lesser value) just to screw over the Yanks/Sox. With the Twins it was a league thing, but if the Twins were in the National league the Mets would have been the ones with the handicap, not the other way around. I don’t think there is anything particularly special about the Yankees or the Red Sox, other than the fact that their prospects tend to be overhyped, leading to their fans feeling that they are getting jobbed.

                • It’s outlined over and over again, all over this thread and others.

                  Teams have a rational reason to charge the Sox and Yankees more than they charge others, because they have a direct competitive interest in not making the Yankees or Red Sox any stronger by trading their stars to them, since the Yankees and Red Sox perennially have the best teams in baseball.

                  They’re only partially doing it to screw the Yanks/Sox over. Screwing the Yanks/Sox over also directly benefits their own teams by making their competition less formidable.

                • But these teams aren’t “conspiring” with each other to not trade stars to Boston or New York.

                  They’re all, independently of each other, coming to the calculated self-interested decision to not trade stars to Boston or New York. There’s no collusion here, just independent actors all coming to the same logical conclusion and strategy.

    • Lanny says:

      Who cares if the Sox get another 1b?

      Pitching wins titles. They totally whiffed not grabbing Halladay last yr and putting forth a rotation of Halladay Beckett Lester

  15. Again, don’t discount the possibility of a total repeat of the Johan Santana situation.

    People have repeatedly said that the Twins made a poor decision in taking the inferior package of prospects for Santana. The problem with this evaluation is that the Twins also highly valued the benefit of keeping Santana far away from their AL rivals. Given their team and payroll restrictions, they reasoned they were better off taking something while keeping Santana out of the AL East where he could hurt them.

    That reasoning may ultimately be sound and correct. The same reasoning would apply to the Jays, twofold. The Jays may be a stronger team by taking better prospects from the Red Sox or Yankees, but they may be better served by being a slightly weaker team by taking inferior prospects from someone else while at the same time preventing the Yankees and Red Sox from becoming an even more dominant team with Halladay.

    • Teix is the Man says:

      Agreed, but I think this only works if the team(s) involved are the Mets or Dodgers, and I don’t think either will be too proactive.

    • radnom says:


      The problem with this evaluation is that the Twins also highly valued the benefit of keeping Santana far away from their AL rivals. Given their team and payroll restrictions, they reasoned they were better off taking something while keeping Santana out of the AL East where he could hurt them.

      This does not conflict with the “Twins made a poor decision approach”.
      The Twins are playing against a stacked deck. The only teams they were talking to had a huge advantage (free agency) over them. They would have been much better off making their team the best it could be while hurting the opposition. If they trade to the Yankees instead, they get the benefit of a (by all accounts) better return, AND a weaker Yankees squad.

    • I don’t know, Santana was younger than Halladay when he was dealt. How old will Halladay be before Toronto can reasonably expect to be competitive? 36? 37? Much less risk involved there, IMO.

  16. TheLastClown says:

    2010 I’d like to see one or two reclamation projects of CMW, Duchscherer, Harden & Sheets.

    2011 perhaps think about replacing Andy with Lee

    I think CC will pitch with excellence the next two years, compelling him toward opting into FA.

    Then we get Felix.

    Throw Chapman in there somewhere, and there’s just no room for ol’ Roy.

    • Teix is the Man says:

      That’s a shitload of assumptions.

      • TheLastClown says:

        It’s full of things I’d like to see happen and think there’s a reasonable chance of happening. What am I assuming?

    • nathan says:

      I dont think CC will opt out, who is gonna pay more than Yanks.. and Cash$$ may without Hank’s intervention not negotiate with CC.. the wear on that arm has to concern us

      it would be a blessing if he opts out.. but i dont think CC does that

      • vin says:

        “it would be a blessing if he opts out.. but i dont think CC does that”

        What?! The dude was the single biggest reason for #27. Having an ace who can make 3 quality starts in a series is a TREMENDOUS advantage. Look at the Phils with Cliff Lee.

        “the wear on that arm has to concern us”

        His health has been remarkable. He’s only made less than 30 starts once in his career – and that 2006 when he made 28. In 9 seasons, he’s thrown over 200 innings only 4 times. He’s got the body to support the workload (and then some).

        Worrying about a pitcher’s arm is like worrying about getting into a car accident – in can happen at anytime to anybody, but if you’re a good driver you lessen the likelihood. CC has a healthy track record, which lessens the likelihood of an injury.

        • nathan says:

          the difference between the good and bad GMs and teams is to figure out when the players reach their prime.. i know CC has done some amazing things this season for us.. he got us 27… but that workload is a serious one… his body type can turn around and work against him in no time…

          totally on a tanget, i watched MLB network on the night of the WS clinch they interviewed CC and Mitch Williams (former Philly closer) totally showed how classy he is.. he asked CC’s wife “what do you feed him..” jaw dropping… way to beclassy Mitch

          • vin says:

            Yeah, Mitch is a total ass.

            I hear what you’re saying about CC, but as a wiseman has said many times:

            You can’t predict baseball… you just can’t!

      • TheLastClown says:

        If CC puts up comparable #s over the next two seasons, he’ll be 30 for the 1st half of 2012.

        He’ll still be in his prime. I think he’d be able to negotiate another big deal at that time.

        I included that because I think the Yanks don’t go so aggressively after Felix if CC doesn’t opt-out.

        Although, if either or both of Joba/Hughes don’t look to be panning out as starters at that point, they may jump all over Felix anyway.

      • pete says:

        i think he will, and i think the yankees will choose to go after felix instead of CC.

    • vin says:

      If CC opts out, then its a good thing for the Yanks because it means that:

      He’s pitched so well that he feels he deserves a raise.
      - or -
      The Yanks can go all-in on King Felix.

      I hope its the former, and Hughes and Joba pitch up to their capabilities.

  17. vin says:

    Just because the Jays’ GM will allow a negotiation window, doesn’t mean Halladay (and his agent) will accept an extension.

    I’m sure Doc’s agent has a good understanding of what his client’s value will be on the FA market. In a trade + extension scenario, Halladay loses leverage because he’s only negotiating with one team who is ALSO “paying” in terms of prospects.

    Johan Santana did get a contract commensurate with his value (blame Omar?), but he definitely would’ve had more leverage if he was a FA.

    Halladay may very well get traded and sign an extension, but when he and his agent hold firm to what they believe Doc’s value is, it will inherently take some teams out of the running.

    Halladay has more value in the AL. If guys like Pineiro and Wolf can be lock-down starters in the NL, why pay for Doc?

    I see it as a three team race – Yanks, Socks, and Angels. With the Rangers being the darkhorse. I have no idea of Texas’ financial status, other than their payroll has been under 70 mill every year since they traded Arod. Now that they have enough talent to contend, Doc could put them over.

  18. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    Favorite MLBTR trade scenario:

    “How about him in a 4 way Trade?
    The Mets get him to be in front of Santana and Overbay to play 1B.
    The Blue Jays get Bradley to be DH/RF,Nick Evans to be LF/1B,Marte future 3B or 1B,Pelfrey-Starter,Holt-Starter,Purnell-Bullpen and Castillo 2B with Hill moving back to SS
    Cubs get BJ Upton to play 2b intill Castro’s ready then to CF
    Rays get Koyie Hill to Catcher,League to Close”

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....-deal.html

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

  19. Free Mike Vick says:

    I wouldn’t trade Montero for anything. And i won’t trade BOTH Joba and Hughes.

    But i would be willing to part with hughes OR joba as the centerpiece of a Doc Halladay deal.

  20. JMK aka The Overshare says:

    Blue Jays get: Joba, Cano, Z-Mac, Betances

    Yankees get: Halladay, Hill, CN Tower

    mryankee gets: Matt Kemp, sound-proof basement

  21. pete says:

    the rays will get halladay for davis, neimann, and breignac, and send him to the giants for buster posey, straight up, mid-season. you heard it here first.

  22. Lanny says:

    Makes sense for the Blue Jays to engage the Yankees and Sox because no one else can give prospects plus the extension he wants.

    A rotation of Sabathia-Halladay-Burnett-Andy P-Hughes would set a clear path towards 28. With enough depth in reserve.

    • Other teams who could give the Jays the prospects and Halladay the extension that they each respectively want:

      Angels
      Rangers
      White Sox
      Mets
      Phillies
      Cubs
      Brewers

      • Oh, and darkhorse:

        Orioles (think about it…)

        • Lanny says:

          But he also has to want to sign the extension. Key part.

          Angels. Mets. For sure. Can’t see the Phils giving Lee and Halladay the same deals.

          Also cant see the Sox giving a huge deal to him when they have to give a huge deal to Beckett with Lester right on his heels and Papelbon complaining about $ every off season.

        • Mike bk says:

          who would the orioles give up? certainly not tillman, matusz or wieters as the recent callups or jones or markakis.

          erbe/patton/snyder?

          • I could see the Orioles giving up one of the Tillman/Matusz/Arrieta troika. Just one. It’s probably worth it for them, who need the ace way more than we do.

            One of those big three plus some flotsam and jetsam might get it done.

            • Lanny says:

              Cant see Baltimore spending 23 mil a yr on a SP when they will have a hard time winning 81 games. Plus I’d have a hard time believing he’d go there after spending a decade in Tor playing against Bos/NY.

              • Well, I did call them a “darkhorse”. The reason they might is that Angelos still fancies himself as a Steinbrenner and is itching to have a team close enough that it’s ready to jump in with a big ticket FA and start competing again.

                They were in the early stages of the Tex sweepstakes, remember, before the big dogs muscled them out. One of these years, they’re gonna say “Fuck it, let’s climb back in this shit as an AL East Big Dog©™”.

      • Mike bk says:

        if it wasnt for mccourt’s personal issues that should be the team most involved with this. i dont see the brewers going after another ace they wont be able to sign again. Angels never seem to pull the trigger no matter how much they talk trades. Yes, i know they got teix but giving up Kotchman doesnt classify as a real cost to me. The whitesox just made their move for peavy and took on rios salary so not sure they would be involved.

        Tex, Cubs, Mets, Phils along w us and Bos. Depending on the prospects it would take he is a better investment than Lackey clearly so anyone in on Lackey should at least kick the tires on roy. The Phils are the intriguing option because then they could always either include Hamels or swap Hamels to make up some of the lost prospects it would take to get Roy and that would be a great 1-2 w roy and lee.

        • Lanny says:

          I like Lackey but Doc is head and shoulders above him.

          Tor wouldnt want anything to do with Hamels. Hes close to FA and they’d be in the same spot.

          And you’re right. The Dodgers should be all over this. They have the pieces to make it work. Billingsley and Loney would headline a nice package.

  23. JobaWockeeZ says:

    I hope the Sox get Halladay. That with added expensive aging stars with no close reinforcements makes me a very happy person.

    • Lanny says:

      You really want them to build a staff lead by Halladay-Beckett-Lester-Dice K?

      Really?

      And thats assuming Clay Laptop is headed in the deal. Thats a monster staff.

      • JobaWockeeZ says:

        If Clay, Kelly, Westmoreland and Anderson are included in the deal then yes.

      • vin says:

        I’m not sure they would be able to pay Beckett AND Halladay. Dice-BB is on the books for another 3 years.

        Lester, Youkilis, and Pedroia are dirt cheap relative to their contributions, however.

        They’re going to need some offense moving forward – Ortiz, Lowell, and VMart will all be free agents after next year.

        I’m guessing they re-sign Bay – a pull-hitting righty is perfect for Fenway (like Lowell). They’re going to need a 3B/1B, SS, and C/DH. They’re already getting so-so power from Drew, Ellsbury, and Pedroia.

    • What do you think they’d offer? They’d be like us and make their top three or four youngsters/prospects off limits. That means no Buchholz, no Anderson, no Kelly, no Westmoreland.

      What does that leave? A Reddick/Kalish/Bowden/Pimentel/Fife deal? That also won’t get it done. That deal is worse than our AJax-centered deal.

      I doubt the Sox do an anti-Cash and buckle and include one of the Buchholz/Anderson/Kelly/Westmoreland in a deal. They won’t gut their farm for Halladay either, which is why he won’t end up their either.

      The Sox and Yankees player acquisition strategies have aligned with each other so as to now be identical.

      • JobaWockeeZ says:

        What do you think they’d offer?
        Nothing, honestly. I don’t see them giving up prospects because John Henry was opposed to that during the deadline.

        But I wouldn’t mind if they gave up their top talent. But they won’t. I know that.

      • Lanny says:

        Epstein and Cashman have the same MO’s.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

        I think both the Red Sox and Yanks are going to wait for when Halladay and Lee become FA’s.

        Red Sox are going to get one of the 2 Aces, Yanks wil get the other.

  24. Mike bk says:

    what would getting roy mean for us next year? does it mean we dont bring back andy? does it mean we permanently move joba or phil to the pen?

  25. Mike HC says:

    Romine, Roberston, IPK, Melky … that would be my final offer to the Blue Jays for Halladay.

  26. vinny-b says:

    if Toronto will extend an extension window for Halladay, then i have NO problem moving Joba in this trade.

    Joba Chamberlain
    Ian Kennedy
    Melky
    Mike Dunn

    personally, i don’t expect the Blue Jays can do any better then this.

  27. [...] Joe P. over at RAB: No one can rule out the Yankees acquiring Roy Halladay. He’s clearly available, and the Yankees [...]

  28. hornblower says:

    Maybe the Yanks buy all the good players and instead of playing the season they can award the trophy on opening day and the parade could be on the 1st of May.
    I say this as a Yankee fan since the 50′s. Produce some new young stars and watch them grow. That is the joy of being a fan.

  29. Usty says:

    I tend to get all giddy like when some super-awesome new electronic gadget comes out, and I know I have a perfectly good working whatever it is, but the thought of the flashy new thing makes my brain short circuit to “I must have this” levels. This is the same feeling I get when I read “Yankees have real reason to believe they can land Halladay.” I know, know, know that they don’t need him, but I sure as Hell do want him.

    (the preceding has been a completely irrational statement)

  30. [...] November 18th, 2009 at 5 :55 pm. Months from now, Alex Anthopolous will call Cashman in the middle of the night, disoriented, in a room with a dead hooker. He’ll give us Halladay for Eric Wordekemper, straight up. …. He had one more year left than Halladay and cost a bona fide starter, a bona fide reliever and a 26- year -old player with high expectations. Reply. Zack says: November 18th, 2009 at 5 :32 pm. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/&#8230;..-deal.html …Continue Reading… [...]

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