Comments on: How many championships has Mariano Rivera been worth?

By: The Mariano Rivera Fact Sheet | FanGraphs Baseball

The Mariano Rivera Fact Sheet | FanGraphs Baseball — Mon, 07 May 2012 18:30:47 +0000

[...] a 0.70 ERA with a 0.759 WHIP in the playoffs, allowing a grand total of four runs from 2002-2011. Post-2009 calculations estimated his career postseason WAR at a hair more than 24.0 considering the differences in [...]

By: Does SIERA underrate Mo like FIP does? | River Avenue Blues

Does SIERA underrate Mo like FIP does? | River Avenue Blues — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:46:21 +0000

[...] the comments of Rebecca’s post about Mariano Rivera’s playoff WAR, commenter CB noted that FIP does not treat Rivera fairly. It consistently estimates his ERA above [...]

By: Joseph Pawlikowski

Joseph Pawlikowski — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:59:18 +0000

Well, no, because they won postseason games in years they didn’t win a championship. Again, the idea is that 11 wins = championship, but those 11 wins could really come at any time.

By: B. K. Neville

B. K. Neville — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:46:58 +0000

This is one of the best articles I have ever read, from both print sources and online. The level to which you took the statistics is phenomenal! I found it very easy to follow and understand (though this may have something to do with the fact that I adore statistics and am going into a field where I will deal with them on a daily basis. ;D)

I agree with whomever stated above that you should look into taking the given constructive criticism and revisiting this. I’m especially curious about the question regarding if everyone else adds up to three wins.

One OT end note: the gmLI stat? I’ve always read as “Gimli” and I think you’re one of the few people who can appreciate that

Great job! I can’t wait to read more from you in the future!

By: My Pet Goat

My Pet Goat — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:45:11 +0000

No, the Yankees do not pay anyone to crunch numbers. Cashman has always surrounded himself with mystics and soothsayers. I believe this year they used more blood and fewer bones in their ceremonies, and that’s how they got Nick Swisher.

By: toad

toad — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:31:54 +0000

Nice work, but I question whether eleven wins equals a championship. Obviously, the right eleven wins does, but the ratio of post-season games won to World Series’ won is a lot higher than eleven.

To take a simple example, the Phillies won 20 post-season games the past two years. I don’t think that it would be correct to say that a Phillie who had a converted postseason WAR of 5.5 over the two years should get credit for half a championship.

Maybe that falls out in the calculations somewhere and I just missed it.

By: ColoYank

ColoYank — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:05:00 +0000

Rebecca,

Congratulations for the heroic effort. You managed to stay on track, carry us through to the end, and stay charming throughout. I may be in the minority here in that I generally tune out most of the sabertmetric calculations floating around, but your engaging explanation did a lot to help me understand them.

And your effort was a noble one, because it actually resulted in a measurable stat. And it’s one that has a strong feel of plausibility, and that right there captures my weakness in the face of the new wave of statistics.

By: no.28

no.28 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:34:01 +0000

How does prorating Mariano’s postseason stats over a full season explain the affect he had on innings that he didn’t pitch in. The idea that all the Yankees have needed to do over his career is get a lead by the 8th inning and they win the game and the pressure it puts on the opponent can’t be shown in statistics.

I understand not liking the idea of using analysts to explain Mo’s dominance, what I meant is that it’s going to be stories about Mariano that explain his greatness.

I still don’t understand how you apply the prorated WAR to postseason wins.

By: Doug

Doug — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:20:50 +0000

Just write “tl;dr,” it’ll save you the time.

By: Miraluka

Miraluka — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:29:59 +0000

I think I just fell in love with Rebecca.
This is some ridiculously intense work.
Consider my lack-of-brains blown away.