Archive for November, 2009
Know your arbitration-eligible Yankees
Posted by: | CommentsThe MLB Players Association yesterday released its list of the 210 players eligible for arbitration. Maury Brown has the full list right here, and five members of the 2009 Yankees find themselves under team control and arbitration-eligible.
Before exploring these players, a few notes on procedures: Salary arbitration is available for players who have not yet reached free agency and players who are free agents. A player with more than three years but fewer than six — with some exceptions for what is known as Super Twos — can file for arbitration. Conversely,the player’s former team can decide to non-tender those players at which point the player becomes an unrestricted free agent.
For current free agents not constrained by service time, clubs can offer salary arbitration to former players by Dec. 1. That move allows the team to recoup draft picks if the player goes elsewhere, but the team runs the risk of an unwanted or overpaid player accepting arbitration and sticking around. The arbitration discussed here is limited by service time and not contractual free agency. And so onto the Yankees.
Chien-Ming Wang — Service Time: 4.159 years; 2009 Salary: $5 million
The Yankees and their former ace have a tenuous relationship when it comes to salary disputes. In 2008, Wang lost in arbitration, and the Yankees made a big deal about saving $600,000 in the process. Last year, the two parties settled for $5 million in late December, but it’s clear that the Yankees are skeptical of Wang’s ability and future success. Considering the nature of his surgery and his recent ineffectiveness, they might have a reason for that skepticism.
Early on this off-season, the conversation has centered around Wang’s contract status, and rumors suggest that the Yankees will non-tender him. They could then try to sign him to an incentive-laden deal with a low base salary. Whether this will placate the sinker-ball specialist is up for debate. Some feel the two-time 19-game winner could test the open market; others say that his marketability in Taiwan is dependent upon the pinstripes.
Prediction: The Yanks will non-tender Wang but resign him to an incentive-based deal more favorable to the team.
Brian Bruney — Service Time: 4.164 years; 2009 Salary: $1.25 million
Last year, the Yanks and Bruney avoided arbitration after exchanging salary figures. Bruney wanted $1.55 million; the Yanks countered with $1.1 million; and the two sides nearly split the difference. Bruney had a worse year in 2009 than he did in 2008. He suffered through some early-season elbow problems and saw his walk rate increase while his strike out rate decreased. His ERA jumped over 2.10 runs, but the Yankees want to bring him back.
Prediction: A one-year deal worth approximately $1.7-$2 million.
Melky Cabrera — Service Time: 3.148 years; 2009 Salary: $1.4 million + $25,000 for reaching 525 plate appearances
Unless something drastic happens — Curtis Granderson, Mike Cameron or that long-rumored Melky and Ian Kennedy for [Insert Player Here] trade — Melky will again battle it out with Brett Gardner for the center field job. After putting up bad numbers in 2008, Melky rebounded with a nice 2009 campaign. I would expect the Yanks will settle with Melky but not offer him a long-term deal.
Prediction: One year, $2.5 million
Chad Gaudin — Service Time: 4.163 years; 2009 Salary: $2 million
A mid-season acquisition, Gaudin showed some good stuff while pitching for the Yanks. He’ll be 27 by Opening Day and will be a swing man for the Yanks next year. I doubt the two sides will head to arbitration here, and Gaudin should receive a bump from his $2 million salary.
Prediction: One year, $3-$4 million
Sergio Mitre — Service Time: 4.132 years; 2009 Salary: $1.25 million
Mention “Sergio Mitre” to a Yankee fan and you may find that fan fighting back the urge to scream. Just a year removed from Tommy John Surgery, Mitre was awful for the Yanks. He managed to win three games but sported a 6.79 ERA. Opponents hit .320/.361/.509 off of him. The Yankees hold a $1.25 million option for 2010, and although Mark Feinsand doesn’t expect them to pick it up, I do. For that low price, the Yanks can bolster their depth.
Prediction: One year, $1.25 million
Does Scioscia know that his team has two key free agents?
Posted by: | CommentsThe Angels made a valiant effort in the ALCS, but they fell short against a superior team. I think that much was clear. Yes, I’m a biased Yankees fan, but I think that when you look at the whole picture, the Yankees were the better team and won in the end. Not that the Angels are a bad team. Far from it. Some people have argued that they were the second best team in the majors this year, ahead of any NL team, and while I don’t necessarily agree, I’m definitely receptive to that argument.
While their success in 2009 is undisputed, the Angels are a team in transition heading into 2010. They locked up Bobby Abreu, which fills a need, but they also have looming decisions on two key free agents, John Lackey and Chone Figgins. The Angels would suffer a big setback if they lost both their ace pitcher and leadoff hitter. They might be able to replace Figgins, though he’s definitely the best third baseman on the market, but they can’t replace Lackey with a free agent. So, it stands to reason that if the Angels don’t bring back their two guys, they could be a bit weaker in 2010.
Mike Scioscia is hearing none of that. At a fundraiser last night, reporters couldn’t help from asking the Angels’ skipper questions about the team’s future. Among them was a question about the Yankees “buying” another World Series title. Scioscia took the bait.
“I don’t care if the Yankees go out and spend $350 million next year, we’re going to beat them because we have the team,” Scioscia said.
Setting aside the near impossibility of spending $350 million on a baseball team, Scioscia might be speaking a bit too soon here. The Angels have some serious work to do this off-season. That’s not to say that they can’t field a strong team in 2010. Rather, it’s to say that if they don’t move to improve their starting pitching, they could be in for some trouble. Their rotation will consist of Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, and Ervin Santana. That’s just not going to cut it, not with the Rangers and Mariners improving.
Sure, managers have to stand by the strength of their team, but Scioscia went out of his way to make a statement about his. That’s fine, but in criticism of his statement, I don’t think the Angels are anywhere close to set for next season. Losing Figgins would hurt, as it would be difficult to replace him at third base and atop the order. But losing Lackey could hurt most of all, because it will be even more difficult to replace him atop the rotation. So no, as it stands, the Angels do not have the team. We’ll see what measures they make to build that team in the next few months.
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A brief musing on the Silver Slugger awards
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday afternoon, to nearly no fanfare, Major League Baseball announced the winners of the 2009 Silver Slugger awards. Among the American League winners were Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, and the rest were your typical mix of good hitters, popular players and Torii Hunter. No one wrote a 900-word rant on Baseball Prospectus about the inanities of the awards; no one on The Book Blog wrote a sarcastic press release about the awards. They were simply ignored.
So my question is this: Why do so many get up in arms over Gold Gloves and not just ignore them as we do the Silver Sluggers? Both awards are fatally flawed; the winners are chosen by the coaches and managers in each league and not by people who are either more neutral or exposed to more games by the simple fact that they’re not on the field. The selection process doesn’t make sense, and the awards are basically industry recognition of popularity and a job decently well done. It’s hardly a coincidence that six players in the AL won both Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves. These aren’t objective awards; they aren’t meant to be; and everyone should just come to grips with that reality.
What Went Wrong: Robbie Cano with RISP
Posted by: | CommentsOver the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.
In many ways, Robinson Cano‘s 2009 season was the finest of his career. He rebounded from a substandard 2008 campaign to hit .320-.352-.520, setting career highs in games played (161), hits (204), runs scored (103), doubles (48), homers (25), and OPS+ (129). His 331 total bases were fourth most in the league, just 13 behind right-side-of-the-infieldmate and league leader Mark Teixeira. Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good news for Cano in 2009, as he struggled immensely when runners were in scoring position.
Robbie hit just .207-.242-.332 in those spots this season, easily the worst performance with RISP of his career. There were 247 individual runners in scoring position for Cano in 2009, yet he drove in just 55 of them (not including himself four times on homeruns), or 22.3%. For comparison’s sake, Teixeira drove in 70 of 257 runners in scoring position, or 27.2%. It’s only a 4.9% difference and that might not seem like much, but with 250+ chances, that’s more than a twelve run swing.
Ironically enough, Cano has all the tools you’d want to see in a guy batting in RBI situations. He’s got a gorgeous swing and makes contact so easily that he rarely strikes out (he struck out in just 9.9% of his plate appearances last year, ninth best in baseball). He hits the ball to all fields with authority, and he straight up murders fastballs (.328 AVG off them in 2009, 1.59 fastball runs above average per 100 pitches according to FanGraphs). Sure, you would like him to work the count a little better, but we saw earlier this morning that Cano excels at swinging early in the count. It’s in his DNA, he’s just not ever going to be a very patient hitter.
If there’s any good news in all of this, it’s that Cano had an unsustainably low .210 BABIP with RISP in 2009. His career BABIP is .324, so we’re talking about a huge difference here. Working backwards, Cano “unlucked” out of 17 hits with RISP this year because of his abnormally low BABIP (assuming he would have had his career BABIP in those spots), and those 17 extra hits would have pushed his batting line to a much more respectable .299-.328-.434 (assuming they all would have been singles) with men on second and/or third.
Cano admitted during the season that his struggles with RISP got to him, and you could clearly see that he was pressing in those spots as the season wore on. He’s human, it happens. The offseason is probably the best thing for him, because he gets to go home and clear his head, then come into camp with a fresh start next spring. His performance with runners in scoring position has nowhere to go but up, and that’s exciting.
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac, Getty Images
Rumor du jour: Extending Derek Jeter
Posted by: | CommentsThe Internet can be a dangerous place during the Hot Stove League. Anyone with a computer and an idea can start a rumor, and it’s tough to know what information is reliable and accurate and what is not. Even established reporters — Jon Heyman comes to mind — tend to tie teams to many available big names, and we’re left trying to sort out noise from reality.
Late last night, we came upon an update on Twitter from someone who calls herself TheSportsDiva23 and with the initials SW. This person says she covers the Yankees but cannot reveal her name. After an extensive look back through her 2400 updates, we felt comfortable enough mentioning this update not so much to report it as a bona fide rumor but to use it as a starting point for a discussion on Derek Jeter.
First, the rumors: According to two posts on this person’s Twitter timeline (1, 2), the Yankees may be gearing up to offer Derek Jeter a three-year deal worth $60 million. Supposedly, this deal would be wrapped up before Thanksgiving.
We don’t know if this deal would supplant the final year of Jeter’s current contract and extend him for two more seasons at $20 million per. We don’t know if this deal would be a three-year extension to carry Jeter through 2013, his age 39 season. We don’t, in fact, know if we should even trust this source at all.
So then why even mention it all, regular readers of RAB might wonder. After all, we tend to shy away from rumors we don’t believe have legs. Now, this anonymous person’s claim may not have legs, but to extend Derek Jeter is a question we’ve pondered this season. In early September, we noted that the Yanks planned to take care of Jeter but probably wouldn’t — and shouldn’t — extend him until after his contract runs out.
I still believe that the Yanks should wait until after next year to extend Derek Jeter. After all, as a 35-year-old short stop — the oldest player to win a World Series at that position in over half a century — Jeter is ripe for more money than he deserves. He just set the Yanks’ career hits record, and he should place in the top five in the AL MVP voting. Jeter’s agent should want to sign that extension now while the Yanks should want to wait a year.
But let’s say the Yanks would rather not allow their captain to touch free agency and don’t want a lame duck season swirling over their heads. Is a $60 million offer that covers the 2010-2012 period reasonable? For Jeter, those seasons are going to be his ages 36-38 years, but he probably won’t readily move off of short stop. Whether that is a liability or a benefit for the Yanks will depend entirely on Derek’s offense prowess.
Since 2006, Derek has earned a per annum salary of over $20 million. The Yanks, in fact, have doled out approximately $85.4 million over the last four seasons to their captain while getting back $88.8 million in production, according to Fangraphs. To continue to pay him a lofty salary would be to pay him for services rendered and not, at this point in his career, expected return and value. Considering who he is, the Yanks can get away with overpaying Jeter if it comes to it.
And so we’re left with a rumor from an unnamed source we are led to believe is a Twitter account of someone close to the Yankees. If it’s real, indications suggested that it could be Suzyn Waldman; if it’s fake, well, that’s quite an undertaking. Either way, we can still consider if the franchise should extend Jeter now or wait until after next year.
In the end, I take the rumor with a giant grain of salt and assume, until we start to hear otherwise, that it has no legs. But those in charge of the Yankees are probably giving some thought to re-upping with Derek Jeter now. His asking price might be too high, but he’s going to get overpaid no matter what. Better, perhaps, to get it over with.
Why does Robinson Cano passively watch the first pitch?
Posted by: | CommentsBefore he digs into the batter’s box for the first time, Robinson Cano playfully taps the opposing catcher’s shin guards with his bat. He then starts to settle in, adjusting his uniform and waving his bat in front of him like a pendulum. Then, as the pitcher readies, Cano gets into his stance, slightly open. The bat waggling behind his head seemingly dictates the movement of the rest of his body. It’s as if he and the bat are one, rocking back and forth in unison, waiting for the perfect moment to turn loose and strike the pitched ball.
If the ball is near the strike zone, I expect Robbie to swing. He’s never been known as a disciplined hitter — he’s been in the bottom five in the AL in pitches per plate appearances four out of five seasons, and in the other, 2007, he was in the bottom 10. Yet even though I understand the virtue of seeing more pitches, I want Robbie to swing. Not at a pitch in the dirt or at his eyes, of course, but if it’s reasonably close to the zone I think swinging is probably the proper decision. (Cano, for his part, made contact with 77.5 percent of pitches outside the strike zone in 2009, and 75.3 percent in 2008.)
This season, I noticed many times that Cano would stand and passively watch the first pitch go by, no matter its type or location. Unfortunately, a statistic does not exist which can quantify this situation. All we have is the number of times he swung at the first pitch, 230 out of his 674 plate appearances, or 34 percent overall. That is actually up from 2008, when he swung at the first pitch 32 percent of the time. In previous years, Cano swung at the first pitch more often. But while we know that Cano swings at the first pitch often enough, we don’t know how many of those first pitch situations he’s eschewing because of this passive tactic.
Presumably, this is to help correct for his poor discipline. Again, Cano routinely sees among the fewest pitches per plate appearance in the league, so the idea might be that if he takes the first pitch, he might get a better read on the pitcher. I’m not sure if this first-pitch passive approach is an instruction from Kevin Long, or an initiative of Cano’s own undertaking. What I do know is that while that tactic can sometimes lead to a 1-0 count, oftentimes Cano watches a perfectly good pitch go right by, a pitch that he can put in play. That’s Cano’s strength, putting balls in play, and I don’t like seeing him take good pitches — or even close pitches — without even thinking about swinging.
Just how good is Cano when he swings at the first pitch? He did it 118 times in 2009, and he picked up 51 hits, good for a .432 batting average. Of those 51 hits, seven were home runs, 11 were doubles, and one was a triple, for a .720 slugging percentage. He also picked up 21 of his 85 RBI by first-pitch swinging. Though his 2009 performance on the first pitch probably isn’t repeatable, Cano has fared well throughout his career in that situation, posting a .374 batting average and .578 slugging percentage over 544 plate appearances.
Hitters who see a lot of pitches provide value to the team. Nick Swisher makes fewer outs than other players because he’s willing to wait for the pitch he wants. If the pitcher doesn’t give him something he can hit, he’ll take his walk (or, as the case may be, he’ll strike out looking). The Yankees have always coveted patience at the plate, and it seems like they sometimes go out of their way to acquire this type of player. It stands in contrast to Cano, a free swinger. Even as he watched balls pass by, having no intention of swinging, he still ranked fourth to last in the AL in pitches per plate appearance in 2009.
Cano saw an 0-1 count 303 times in 2009. We might not learn from his numbers in that situation, because we don’t know how he got the strike. It could have been a passive look, an active look, a foul ball, or a swing and miss (though that only happened about 230 times all season). In any case, he hit .288/.294/.482 over 303 plate appearances. That’s pretty close to his career mark of .285/.299/.422 over 1,334 plate appearances. He is much better with a 1-0 count, .305/.383/.464 over 253 PA in 2009 and .298/.368/.476 over 1,158 PA in his career. Still, not as good as his first pitch numbers.
This is not to say that Cano should swing at every first pitch. That would be preposterous. It is to say that he’s not doing himself any favors by passively resting the bat on his shoulders. Maybe I’m falling victim to an observation bias and he doesn’t do this nearly as frequently as I think. I wish I had a way to measure it, other than watching the archive of all his 674 plate appearances. But that would just annoy me. That’s why I wrote this post, really. Because Robinson Cano annoys me when he nonchalantly watches a good pitch go by.
Curtis keeps on raking
Posted by: | CommentsAzFL Surprise (8-6 win over Peoria Javelinas)
Colin Curtis: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 CS – 17 for his last 39 (.436) with five doubles, a triple, and two jacks
Zach Kroenke: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-3 GB/FB – 16 of 26 pitches were strikes (61.5%) … PitchFX had him at 91.72-92.6 with the fastball, but says he threw only nine of them, compared to twelve sliders … that’s odd
Open Thread: Ooh, I scored a touchdown
Posted by: | CommentsIf you watch this and don’t laugh, I’ll be disappointed.
It’s been all around the Internet today, but I’ll thank commenter pat for being the first to tip me off. For those who want to read a bit more about the Ellis experience, Snopes has a lengthy look.
While Ellis didn’t play for the Yankees in my lifetime, he did play for them when my dad was my age, so I’ve heard plenty about him and about that era in general. That led me to read up a lot about it. I always thought it was a shame that Dock didn’t win a World Series with the Yanks. They acquired him from the Pirates for the 1976 season, when they lost to the Reds in the World Series. You know who else came over in that trade? Willie Randolph. Then, in the spring of ’77, the Yanks traded Ellis for Mike Torrez, who pitched well in the championship season. Bonus: Torrez became a free agent after the season and signed with Boston. Oops.
That takes care of that, so have at it with the open thread. Bicker, quarrel, and do what you will, but when you do, just remember that your trade proposal sucks.
Popular in merchandise sales; popular in ticker tape
Posted by: | CommentsAs the afterglow of the Yankees World Series win still burns bright amongst New Yorkers, two stories today prove just how popular the Bombers are. First, the Gotham Gazette reports that Yankee fans dumped 56.5 tons of ticker tape on Lower Manhattan last Friday. That’s 20 tons more than the Giants enjoyed when they won the Super Bowl in 2008. Included in that great weight of paper were some unshredded personal documents. Oops.
From an economic perspective, the Yanks’ World Series win has been great for merchandise sales. According to the Biz of Baseball, sales from World Series merch are trending at second-best all time. The Red Sox are, of course, on top of that list. Fans flocked to buy Boston gear after an 86-year drought. Yankee fans had to wait only nine season between titles and are rewarding themselves with championship t-shirts galore. Of course, as Modell’s president Seth Horowitz noted, numerous fans may be either of the fair weather variety or the world title-or-bust persuasion. “Sales were relatively soft going into the World Series, and then they exploded,” he said. “It was almost as if the fans wanted the championship and nothing else.”
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
