Archive for November, 2009
Guess who doesn’t have an innings limit anymore
Posted by: | CommentsAmidst the news from the GM Meetings can word from Brian Cashman, via Chad Jennings, that both Joba Chamberlain‘s and Phil Hughes‘ innings cap in 2010 will “not be significant.” After years of discussion about innings limits, the Yanks are ready to let their youngster loose, and it makes sense. Joba threw over 160 innings this year, and a 30-inning bump would put him at 190 innings. That’s a threshold reached by just 21 other AL pitchers in 2009.
The decision to let Hughes’ innings limit slide is of another nature. As Mike just noted, Hughes as a major part of the 2009 bullpen but threw only 106 innings because of it. At The Yankee Universe, Moshe Mandel speculates that a lack of an innings cap for Hughes is motivated by the 146 innings he threw in 2006. The Yanks may be willing to allow Hughes throw approximately 175 innings in 2010 because of that past.
What Went Right: The Bullpen Makeover
Posted by: | CommentsOver the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.
The Yankees came into 2009 feeling good about their bullpen. After all, the same cast of characters posted the seventh lowest ERA (3.79), second lowest FIP (3.82), second best strikeout rate (8.66 K/9), and tenth best walk rate (3.53 BB/9) in the league last year. Unfortunately, that group of relievers was unable to repeat that performance in the first month of this season. Their FIP in April was awful (5.41) and their ERA even worse (6.46), and it was a major reason why the team was in third place with a negative run differential on May 1st.
Thankfully, the Yanks had enough bullpen depth to not just replace one or two pieces, but to make wholesale changes. The first step in the makeover came on April 25th, when Phil Hughes was summoned from Triple-A to take over for the injured Chien-Ming Wang. Al Aceves replaced the overmatched Anthony Claggett on May 5th, and David Robertson took the place of the injured Brian Bruney three weeks later. Edwar Ramirez and his 33 baserunners allowed (6 homer!) in 17.1 IP was banished to the minors mid-May, and Jose Veras was mercifully designated for assignment a little later on.
After allowing three earned runs or less in five of his seven starts, Hughes shifted to the bullpen in early June to make way for Wang. He became the primary setup man to Mariano Rivera in short order, allowing everyone else in the bullpen to settle into roles more suitable for their skills. Hughes held opponents to a .172-.228-.228 batting line as a reliever, posting a ridiculous 65-13 K/BB ratio and an unfathomable 1.83 FIP after moving to the bullpen.
Aceves, meanwhile, became Joe Girardi’s jack of all trades. He was used in long relief, short relief, in matchup situations, you name it. He allowed less than a baserunner per inning, and his 80.2 IP as a reliever was the most by a Yankee since Scott Proctor’s 100.2 IP back in 2006. Aceves effectively bridged the middle innings gap from the starter to Phil Hughes all by himself.
Most teams would be happy with a pair of guys like Hughes and Aceves in their bullpen, but the Yankees didn’t stop there. Rookie David Robertson developed from promising prospect into a bullpen force, leading all American League pitchers by striking out 12.98 batters per 9 IP (the second place guy, Joakim Soria, was more than a full strikeout behind him).
Once all of the new pieces were in place, the Yankee bullpen went from weakness in April to strength the rest of the way. They finished the year with a solid 3.91 ERA, and placed second in the league in strikeout rate (8.44 K/9) and third in walk rate (3.46 BB/9). The names had to be changed, but Girardi’s bullpen once again finished the season as one of the strongest in the game.
Photo Credits: Getty Images, Reuters Pictures, AP
An agent’s online appeal for Hideki
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s not a stretch to say that no sport has been impacted more by the power of the Internet by baseball. From the rise of cross-country sabermetrics to the proliferation of blogs and smarter analysis than that offered by local papers and sports talk radio to institutions such as MLB.com that have revolutionized online content delivery, baseball has spent the last ten years living through its own golden age of the Internet.
It was, then, only a matter of time before agents started taking their appeals for their players to the digital airwaves. Scott Boras’ player profile binders may be legendary amongst baseball executives and fans, but the truly savvy agents will tap into the Internet to generate populist pressure in support of their clients. By utilizing this still-developing medium, agents can change the tenor of the conversation over free agents.
Yesterday, we saw how Johnny Damon and Scott Boras are not quite on the same page regarding Damon’s free agency. The Yanks’ left fielder wants to stay in the Bronx while Boras wants him to get market value and a longer deal than the one Brian Cashman will offer. In all senses, the Damon/Boras conflict is a fairly traditional player/agent fight, and the Damon negotiations are going to be fairly routine.
But Arn Tellem, Hideki Matsui‘s agent, seems willing to push the boundaries of this Internet Age. In what I can only assume is a first for an agent, Tellem has taken his defense of Matsui online. He published an article on the Huffington Post explaining why Hideki Matsui is a sound investment. With one bit of hyperbole and otherwise astute observations, Tellem’s piece is an excellent primer in making your case.
First, the hyperbole: Tellem calls Matsui “an ageless talent.” At age 35 and with creaky knees, Matsui certainly is showing his age, but he can still hit. If that’s Tellem’s worst exaggeration, it’s an understandable one.
In discussing Matsui, Tellem engages in some fanciful writing too. “By embracing Matsui,” he says, “New Yorkers have once again shown that though ball clubs are named for cities and states, they transcend geography. Teams may not be where we find our heroes today, but, as Matsui has demonstrated, it’s where we find heroic situations we can all dream of, argue about or simply watch together in amazement. That’s the game’s unifying force.” Hey, I buy it.
It gets better though:
As his agent, I take a different view. The ageless Matsui has shown not just that he can still hit, but that he can hit with consistency and aplomb. During the regular season, he ranked second among DHs in homers, and third in slugging percentage, on-base percentage and walks. No left-handed hitter homered more off southpaws. Matsui combines the late-inning heroics of Yankees great Tommy (Old Reliable) Henrich and the superb professionalism of Paul O’Neill. He’s a complete player who always has taken pride in contributing to all facets of the game.
Matsui’s immense popularity in Japan gives the Yanks strong financial incentive to re-sign him. He helps bring in millions of dollars annually in marketing and sponsorship revenue. In the seven years since he joined the Bronx Bombers, Matsui has played a pivotal role in establishing the Yankees as a global brand. Six major Japanese companies — including Toyota, Sony and the Daily Yomiuri newspaper — have signed on as advertisers, each reportedly adding $1 million or so a year to team coffers. Most of these firms have placed their billboards in right field, often the final resting ground of Godzilla’s monstrous clouts, to target the audience of NHK, the Japanese radio and television network. Currently, NHK airs 120 Yankee games a season.
It’s not a stretch to say Matsui is as responsible for Japanese interest in the Yankees as Yao Ming is for the NBA in China. Matsui has yet another virtue that goes beyond mere statistics. In an age when athletes mock our reverence daily, he’s exemplary in every aspect of his life. In January of 2003, his very first request upon landing in New York was to be taken to the Twin Towers memorial to pay his respects. He did this without publicity or fanfare. He did it because, he said, it was “the right thing to do.” After the tsunami hit Indonesia at the end of 2005, Matsui, out his own sense of decency, donated $500,000 to UNICEF. He’s one of those rare superstars who recognize the unique role his astonishing talent has given him and the good he can do for others.
That’s a brilliant first shot by Matsui’s agent. He makes his statistical argument, his economic argument, and his all-around good-guy argument in 350 words.
Right now, we don’t know what the immediate future holds for Matsui. Talks with the Yanks are on hold until the organization has a chance to meet, and although rumors about the Red Sox’s interest surfaced yesterday, it’s hard to believe that Theo Epstein would do anything but drive up Matsui’s price. Reportedly, the Sox would eye Matsui as a regular left fielder, but it’s hardly a secret that Matsui’s knees can’t take the pounding.
And so we wait with the words of Arn Tellem out there for anyone to see. Matsui, he says, “loves New York,” and the Yanks will have “‘a special place’ in his heart.” How ever does a GM respond to such a blatantly public and emotional appeal for support just one week after the free agent-to-be took home World Series MVP honors?
Who should the Yankees protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
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Nothing gets me excited quite like the Rule 5 Draft, one of baseball’s more underappreciated sources of talent. If you’re unfamiliar with how the R5D works, Wikipedia does a pretty good job of explaining it. Basically, it’s a way to help players stuck in the minors advance their careers. If they’ve been playing pro ball for at least four years (three for college draftees) and are not on the 40-man roster, they’re eligible to be drafted. Their new team has to keep them on the 25-man Major League roster all season, otherwise the player’s old team can take him back if they want. That’s a really quick and dirty explanation, but it’ll do.
The actual draft is held on the final day of the Winter Meetings in early December. This year it’s on the 10th. Even though the draft isn’t for another few weeks, rosters do have to be set fairly soon. I don’t know the exact date, but last year it was November 20th, so it can’t be too far away.
For the most part, teams will use the R5D almost like a temp agency; a means to find cheap labor. They won’t (or shouldn’t) go in looking for a franchise cornerstone, because they aren’t going to get it. The best young players always get protected for obvious reasons. Instead, teams will look for that second lefty reliever, or a backup catcher, or a spare outfielder, or a long reliever, stuff like that. NL teams might look for a veteran hitter to bring off the bench, someone they can hide on their roster all season. Last year, the Yanks lost four players in Major League portion of the R5D, plus two more in the Triple-A phase.
This year, I count no fewer than 37 players in the Yanks’ organization that are R5D eligible. Chances are it’s more, but it can be tough to figure out if some of the international signees are eligible. Now 37 seems like a big number, and it is, but relax, most of them are organizational players that have no business being protected. That said, the Yanks still have some tough decisions to make regarding who’ll protect and who they’ll leave exposed.
Before we get into who they should and shouldn’t protect, we first need to figure out what the 40-man roster situation looks like. As of today, there are 38 players on the 40-man. Brian Cashman has said he plans on “taking it slow” this offseason, so we can assume the Yanks will let all of their free agents hit the market. That frees up seven spots (Damon, Hairston, Hinske, Matsui, Molina, Nady, Pettitte), and the Yanks could easily free up another one by cutting ties with Shelley Duncan the same way they did with Freddy Guzman and Josh Towers.
It looks like Brian Bruney will be back next year (grrr), but not Chien-Ming Wang. That’s another open spot. Jon Albaladejo, Chris Garcia, and Edwar Ramirez all have options left, but I bet at least one (Edwar) goes because they’re easily replaceable. That’s another spot. Juan Miranda qualifies for a fourth option, and he’s worth keeping around. All told, that would be eleven open spots on the 40-man, but remember that six of those spots will have to be used on replacements for Damon, Hairston, Hinske, Matsui, and Pettitte (Frankie Cervelli replaces Molina, and he’s already on the 40-man), plus assume one more spot for fungibility. That would give the Yanks four spots to use for protecting R5D eligible players.
Three of those four spots unquestionably will be used to protect Austin Jackson, Ivan Nova, and Kevin Russo. Jackson is the organization’s top outfield prospect, and if the Nationals didn’t take him with the first pick of the R5D, the Pirates would gobble him up with the second. Nova was selected but returned by the Padres last year, and the Yanks wouldn’t be so lucky again after his breakout season. Russo is capable of playing five (probably six) positions, and wOBA‘d .371 in Triple-A next year. That’s a guy you keep.
So that leaves one more spot, and about eight players worthy of being considered for protection. Let’s break ‘em down one by one after the jump.
Rumor du Jour: Roy Halladay
Posted by: | CommentsThat Jon Heyman, he just loves tying every big-name pitcher to the Yanks. Today’s rumor of the day from Heyman suggests that the Yanks will inquire about Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays’ was infamously not traded this past July, and that non-move was the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back as J.P. Ricciardi was fired by season’s end. Unless Halladay can be gotten for cheap, the Yanks probably won’t acquire him for the same reason the team didn’t trade for Johan Santana: Halladay will be a free agent after 2010, and the team will not pay for him in both prospects and cash. The career Blue Jay turns 33 in May.
Yanks won’t rework Girardi’s deal this off-season
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yankees moved through the playoffs, many of us wondered whether a World Series win would mean a contract extension for Joe Girardi. They got the win, but it appears the team is content to let Girardi manage 2010 as a lame duck. Joel Sherman has the details, which are few. Instead of rewarding Girardi for a job well done, the Yanks will take their normal tack of letting a contract expire before negotiating a new one. It seems like a reasonable enough stance.
Brian Cashman has made it clear that this is how the Yankees will operate. Before the 2007 season he had a chance to rework deals for Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada, but declined to do so until after the season. While that decision might have cost the team several million dollars — both Posada and Rivera played hardball after having great seasons — it appears they’ll continue to apply the policy across the board.
While football teams prefer to avoid having a lame duck coach, baseball teams don’t seem to averse to it. Joe Torre signed four contracts after his first one with the Yankees, and two of them came after the old deal expired. In other words, the Yankees had two lame duck seasons under Torre, 1999 and 2001. His teams did just fine those seasons. He signed extensions for the 1997 and 2004 seasons, a year before his contract was to expire, and the teams did just fine then, too (though both seasons ended on sour notes).
After winning the World Series in his second season at the helm, it seems that missing the playoffs in 2010 is the only result that could lead to a new manager in 2011. Even then, with the World Series championship under his belt, perhaps the Yankees will be a bit more forgiving with Girardi if his team fails to make the playoffs next year. In any case, they’re leaving that option open, no matter what the team does. Even so, save for some unforeseen event unrelated to the team’s play (e.g., Girardi insulting the owner, as he did in Florida), I don’t see anyone else managing the Yankees for the next few years.
Joe Girardi has his good points and his bad, and although many of us were puzzled by some of his moves, I still think he’s a good manager. While we as fans tend to focus on the manager’s tactical moves, a manager is responsible for more than just that. He must hold together a team of 25 personalities over a six-month season and month-long playoff process. From all appearances, Girardi has done that well. As Alex Rodriguez said after the team won the World Series, “You have 25 guys who bought into Joe Girardi’s system.”
Yankees tidbits we missed yesterday
Posted by: | CommentsI would guess that maybe 5 percent of people who read this site don’t read MLB Trade Rumors at least once a day. It’s such a quick, easy source of information on anything remotely hot stove related. This time of year, though, it gets a bit dense. Thirty-nine posts went up yesterday, most of them not Yankee-related. But there are some minor tidbits among them, so we’ll aggregate the aggregator.
- Joel Sherman caught a vibe, and it said that the Yankees will not only non-tender Wang, but they will “not even offer him a small base with incentives to return.” Good thing it’s just a vibe.
- Sherman, who has been all over these GM meetings, hears that Yanks “plan to tender arb-eligibile Brian Bruney because his price (about $1.5M) will be reasonable.” That’s less than 1 percent of total payroll.
- Buried in this Joe Strauss article about Matt Holliday, the Cardinals “expressed interest” in Xavier Nady. I always wonder what denotes an expression of interest.
- The Royals foolishly jumped on Kyle Farnsworth early last off-season, and this off-season they’re after another former Yank. Via Ken Rosenthal/Jon Paul Morosi, the Royals signed Wilson Betemit to a minor league deal. I’ll always appreciate Betemit for bringing us Nick Swisher.
- Not that the Yanks were going to sign him anyway, but Charley Walters reports that the Twins and Joe Mauer have begun discussing a new deal. The Yanks will just have to hope that one of their 18 catching prospects works out.
Kennedy knocked around in Arizona
Posted by: | CommentsAzFL Surprise (9-8 loss to Mesa, walk-off style)
Brandon Laird: 2 for 5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Ian Kennedy: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 4-5 GB/FB – 46 of 70 pitches were strikes (65.7%)
Mike Dunn: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 13 of 21 pitches were strikes (61.9%) … allowed an inherited runner to score, which was charged to IPK
Open Thread: The greatest Nike ad ever
Posted by: | CommentsYou may have seen that one yesterday, but it’s worth seeing again.
Here’s your open thread for the night. The Devils, Islanders, Nets, and Knicks are all in action tonight, plus there’s a new South Park. Talk about whatever you want, just be cool.
First season a success for Yankee Stadium Metro-North stop
Posted by: | CommentsThe ridership numbers are in for the new Metro-North Yankees/E. 153rd St. station, and officials at the commuter rail are pleased with the results. During the regular season, ridership levels averaged 2800 per weekday game and 4000 per weekend game. Those numbers reached 4800 per game for the playoffs and peaked for Game 6 of the World Series with over 6000 fans turning to Metro-North last Wednesday. “Overall, for the first season, the results are very good. It is a big success,” Howard Permut, president of Metro-North, said. For more on this station’s first season in operation and my thoughts on why ridership was lower than initially projected, check out my coverage at Second Ave. Sagas.



