Archive for November, 2009
Lincecum takes home his second Cy
Posted by: | CommentsTim Lincecum was named the NL Cy Young Award winner today, becoming the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cys since Randy Johnson won four in a row from ’99-’02. He narrowly beat out a pair of Cardinals for the award, as just ten points separated Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright, who finished third in the voting, actually received the most first place votes (12).
Lincecum is arbitration eligible as a Super Two this offseason, and he’s won the Cy in each of his two full seasons. Get ready for the greatest arbitration case in the history of the universe.
Selig talks about a shortened playoff schedule
Posted by: | CommentsAfter 162 games over 180 days during the regular season, baseball slows down for the playoffs. Any given team can play a maximum 19 games in the postseason, which usually last 30 days (plus the days off following the regular season conclusion). That’s quite a change for players and fans, who are used to the every day nature of baseball. Couldn’t baseball do something to shorten the postseason schedule so that they’d get days off at least somewhat comparable to the regular season?
There are a few obstacles in the way of such a playoff layout. Travel days is an obvious one. It’s unfair to make a team, or both teams, travel from the West Coast after a game and play the next day. In fact, during the regular season a team cannot travel from the West Coast to the East Coast without a day off. So preserving some level of off-days when changing venues makes sense, because you never know where the travel will take you.
Another obstacle is the uncertainty of how long a series lasts. Three of four teams swept their opponents in the first round this year, and the other series went only four games. This meant many extra days off for these teams. First because of the unplayed games, but also because of the travel days between them — and in a 2-2-1 system, that’s two game days and a travel day for the sweeping teams, and one game day and a travel day for the four-game team.
Yet the biggest obstacle of all could be the television networks. They pay a lot of money to acquire broadcast rights for the playoffs, and they therefore want to maximize their advertising revenues. This necessarily means more days off. TBS and FOX benefit when they’re the only station with a game. This is why one LCS starts a day before the other, and also why there’s a random day off between Games 4 and 5. It puts each station in an exclusive position, meaning they’ll be able to grab a greater portion of the total audience attention.
On top of the want for extra days off, the networks also request to start the playoffs on a Wednesday. It helps them to get more games in during peak viewership hours. If the playoffs started on a Saturday, the lowest-rated night of the week, they would probably have fewer people watching, and therefore lower advertising revenue.
Commissioner Bud Selig recently addressed this issue, saying that he favors a shorter playoff schedule. In fact, citing an argument from Angels manager Mike Scioscia, Selig pretty firmly says that we can expect a tightened playoff layout.
“We’re going to change it,” Selig said. “I don’t disagree with Mike Scioscia. I think he was right, so we’re going to try and tighten that up.”
He goes on to cite some of the complications listed above, but concedes that some of the off-days — I’m assuming those requested by the networks — are unnecessary. That sounds like a definitive statement from Selig, though I’m not quite as optimistic that much will change next postseason.
I’d like to see some more flexibility in the scheduling, if possible. As we saw with the one-game playoff this season, sometimes there are issues of venue availability. The Twins and Tigers were supposed to face off the Monday after the season ended, but weren’t able to because the Vikings had a Monday night game scheduled for then. Baseball had to wait another day. There won’t be a football-baseball overlap for them this season, but there are still a few teams that play in dual-purpose arenas. And in those cases, flexible scheduling can be an issue.
Will Bud stand by his word on this one? I hope so. The long playoff layout afforded the Yankees an advantage this postseason, but I’d make the trade-off. Players go through a long, grueling regular season with just 18 off-days in six months. I’d like to see a more accurate emulation of that for the playoffs.
Addendum by Ben: Just to hit on a point, the lengthened playoff schedule, as Shysterball so aptly reminds us, was Selig’s doing in the first place. He’s simply trying to undo another bad decision he made when he kowtowed the interests of TV over the flow of the playoffs. Other than for the sake of TV, there’s no reason the ALCS can’t start two days after the last ALDS wraps up, and there’s no reason why the World Series can’t just start two days after the last LCS game is played. If Selig had the best interests of baseball in mind, he would fix this problem.
What Went Right: The Kids Are Alright
Posted by: | CommentsOver the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.
The Yankees lost a major piece of their team before the season even started, as Alex Rodriguez went down with a torn hip labrum that would keep him out for well over a month. Some people (who shall remain nameless) actually thought the team would be better off without him, but after a three week stretch of seeing Cody Ransom hit .180-.226-.320, everyone was singing a different tune. But I digress.
Ransom, slated to begin the year as the backup infielder, was pushed into every day duty, and taking Ransom’s place as the utility infielder was young Ramiro Pena. The Yankees could have gone with the easy move and taken the veteran Angel Berroa out of Spring Training, but Pena made a strong impression in camp thanks to all the extra playing time he received while Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano were away at the World Baseball Classic.
The then 24-year-old infielder had hit just .266-.330-.357 with Double-A Trenton in 2008, but his outstanding glove work meant he could still contribute something positive to the team. Ransom went down with a quad injury in late April, which meant Pena would have to hold down the fort at third base until A-Rod returned. The kid from Monterrey went on to hit .333-.375-.367 in nearly two weeks of playing time, and put up a crazy good +12.5 UZR/150 at the hot corner. Against the Angels on May 1st, Pena’s two run single in the eighth helped the Yanks overcome a five run deficit with just five outs remaining.
Unfortunately, A-Rod wasn’t the only prominent Yankee to miss time with injury in 2009. Jorge Posada missed most of May with a hamstring injury, and if that wasn’t bad enough, backup catcher Jose Molina also missed most of the month with a similar injury. The Yankees were forced to turn to the unproven Francisco Cervelli, who at the time was hitting just .190-.266-.310 in Double-A. Cervelli hit .286-.302-.310 in Posada’s and Molina’s stead, flashing some serious defensive skills behind the plate.
With the Yanks’ lineup struggling immensely in mid-June (13 runs in their previous six games), Cervelli hit the first homer of his career in Atlanta, tying the game and helping wake up the dormant offensive monster. The Yanks were just 38-32 at that point, but after Cervelli’s jack helped get the offense back in order, they went 65-27 the rest of the way.
Both Pena and Cervelli started the year as the third best option at their respective positions, but both performed when the team needed them most. Cervelli gunned down 10 of 13 potential basestealers, and Pena gobbled up everything hit within shouting range of him at three infield positions. Their youthful energy was a joy to watch and also a welcome addition to a team that can be a little uptight at times.
Assessing Matsui’s and a DH’s values
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We’ve been talking a lot about Hideki Matsui over the last few weeks. In the waning days of his most recent Yankee contract, he wowed us all in Game 6 of the World Series and won MVP accolades because of it. Now, the Yankees are faced with a tough choice. Do they let their everyday DH and Japanese superstar walk or do they try to bring him back?
Yesterday, we explored this question when we examined whether we would bring back Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui if we, as the Yankees seem to be doing, had to pick just one. With a heavy heart, I opted for Johnny Damon but noted that it would not be a mistake to bring back either one. Many commenters noted that Matsui may be had for a lesser price and fewer years than Damon. Those factors could very well be the difference in free agency.
Today, I want to put a different spin on the story. We’re going to look at Matsui’s perceived economic value to the team and then make a rough attempt to put a run value on Matsui’s DH production as compared with the Yanks’ willingness to use the DH in 2010 as a rotating rest spot for their veterans. The numbers are rough, but the conclusion is sound: The Yankees would be making a mistake if they opt against employing a true DH.
But first, the economics of Hideki Matsui. As we know, Matsui’s World Series MVP award set off a merchandising frenzy. Two days after the Fall Classic ended, Matsui memorabilia was in extremely high demand, and Godzilla’s popularity has grown in the ensuing two weeks. According to NPB Tracker, Matsui is now on pace to be as popular as Ichiro this off-season. He has received eight offers — three from preexisting sponsors and five from new ones — to appear in ads, and Patrick Newman estimates that Matsui could make $10 million this off-season. He adds:
Media demand has also rocketed for Matsui, as he has received an estimated 100 requests for television and event appearances in his home country. Even though his home for next season has yet to be determined, it’s not an understatement to say his new team (if the Yankees does not re-sign him) will have an opportunity to develop a big presence in the Land of the Rising Sun.
That opportunity sets Matsui apart from the rest of the free agent pool, in some regards. The Japanese-language signage we’ve been seeing in Yankee Stadium during Matsui’s tenure with the Yankees is sure to follow him wherever he goes. Every news program in Japan will show highlights from Matsui’s game, so a well-timed advertisement behind the plate will reach millions of Japanese homes on a nightly basis. With this comes a revenue opportunity that teams won’t get with, say, Jim Thome.
An article published today in Japanese alleged that the Yankees stand to lose at least $15 million if Matsui heads elsewhere. That is a significant economic impact, and one the team can’t just ignore. Considering that Matsui made $13 million in 2009 and shouldn’t earn that much again, he would basically pay for himself. Money, in other words, is not the issue.
With that in mind, what about his on-field value? As a DH, Matsui was among the best. His 32.6 VORP total placed him third among DHs and a good 12 VORP points — or approximately one win above replacement level — better than Jim Thome. I also attempted to calculate his relative value to the Yankees’ lineup using some MLVr figures.
MLVr — a rate estimation of marginal lineup value — calculates, according to Baseball Prospectus, the “additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers.” Matsui’s MLVr in 2009 was 0.164 in 8.2 percent of the team’s plate appearances. By calculating the weighted MLVr total for the Yanks’ lineup and then multiplying it by nine — the number of spots in the lineup — we come up with a total that says the Yanks should have scored nearly 194 more runs than league average.
And this point, I have to stop to address that figure. In reality, the Yankees scored 134 more runs than the average AL team and 168 more than the Major League average. This is an inherent problem with MLVr, and Keith Woolner addressed it here four years ago. It is on the high side, but bear with me.
With that in mind, I made a few assumptions that won’t hold true. First, I held everyone’s production steady from 2009 to 2010 as well as their playing time. It’s unlikely to see the same level of offensive production from many of the aging Yankees, and the entire lineup should fall back from its lofty heights. That’s just a caveat.
Then, I removed Hideki Matsui from the equation and redistributed his playing time among Francisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner, Ramiro Peña and Jerry Hairston, Jr. With these players in the lineup and taking over Matsui’s plate appearance, the team’s offensive output based on MLVr declined to approximately 174 runs above average. No doubt this would still be a potent offensive team, but removing Matsui’s bat from the equation and replacing him with nothing could cost the Yanks 20 runs or nearly two wins.
Now, I recognize this is some of the more in-depth mathematical analysis than we usually employ around here, but the point is one the Yanks should take to heart. Hideki Matsui played a big role in the Yanks’ lineup this year, and they can’t just eschew a true DH to rest regulars while replacing Matsui’s at-bats with the cast of characters they employ off the bench. Matsui has an economic value for the team and a win value as well. Perhaps, then, the Yanks should indeed bring him back for 2010.
Is Johnny Damon really that bad on defense?
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Johnny Damon went through a transition in 2007. He left Spring Training pondering retirement. While nothing came of that, he faced many problems early in the season. By the end of April he was hitting .229/.349/.329, a far cry from his impressive pinstriped debut a year earlier. He then battled calf issues in May, eventually missing a few games at the end of the month, but ultimately missing the disabled list. By June, Joe Torre had seen enough. He installed Melky Cabrera as the everyday center fielder, relegating Damon mostly to designated hitter duties — made easier because of Jason Giambi‘s foot injury. Damon played just 10 games in center field from June through September.
After spending most of June and July as a one-way player, Damon started seeing more time in left field later in the season. This made sense. Johnny was, by reputation, a good defender in center field. Having to cover less ground in left field, Damon could be a defensive asset to the Yankees. According to UZR, he was. In 271 innings over the season’s final two months, Damon accumulated a 7.5 UZR. That stood in contrast to his numbers in center field, -7.6 in 377 innings in 2007. It also brought to light Damon’s UZR deficiency in center field — he’d been in the negatives since 2003.
When Joe Girardi took over in 2008, it was clear Damon would play left field every day. His bat played well enough for left field, and his range at that position would give the Yankees a boost on defense. Sure enough, Damon posted another great defensive season according to UZR, posting a 6.7 mark (11.6 per 150) in 659.1 innings in left field. Because the team struggled to score runs, and because they demoted Melky Cabrera in August, Damon slid over to center for 285 innings, and again posted a negative UZR figure, -7.8. Damon clearly wasn’t a good center field option for 2009, but it stood to reason that he’d once again be an asset in left.
The plan didn’t work out how the Yankees expected. From the start Damon looked shaky in left field. That he dropped a few balls early in the season, including in a June game against the Red Sox, did him no favors with the fans. Soon after the drop against the Sox Damon revealed he was having eye trouble, a “fluttering” issue that doctors connected to his caffeine intake. Still, fans tend to remember players who drop fly balls. No one forgot Damon’s infractions.
Not only was there visual evidence of Johnny’s deficiencies in left field, but the go-to defensive stat, Ultimate Zone Rating, ranked Damon among the worst left fielders in the game. After posting a 11.6 UZR/150 in 2008, Damon fell into the negatives in 2009. He ended with a -12.1 per 150 mark in 2009, which seems to confirm the eyeball test. Damon just wasn’t that good in the field in 2009, and at age 36 it’s difficult to project an improvement for 2010.
Still, it’s possible that Damon wasn’t as bad in the field as fans and UZR say. A fan’s opinion is often skewed by a few standout memories, and nothing stood out about Damon’s defense more than his dropped balls and “happy feet” as he got under fly balls. That will leave a negative impression for sure. And while it might be the best known measure of defense — at least of those publicly available — UZR has its shortcomings as well. For instance, it rated Juan Rivera, Carlos Lee, and Raul Ibanez in the positives this season. Those aren’t three players generally considerd good defenders.
I haven’t seen many scouts comment on Johnny Damon’s defense, and even so I’m not inclined to believe an anonymous scout quoted for an article. We’ve seen that too many times, and it often seems like the opinion offered is not of a consensus, but rather just the quote that best fit the writer’s article. The closest thing I’ve seen is Tangotiger’s Fan Scouting Report. The idea is to get a good feel for a player’s defense through a huge sampling of fans. Yet that system seems flawed, though that could just be from underexposure. Damon ranked fairly low on the left field scale, ahead of only the players with terrible defensive reputations: Ibanez, Alfonso Soriano, Manny Ramires, and Delmon Young, etc.
There is one more defensive statistic to consider, and it’s a bit more kind to Damon than UZR. Revised Zone Rating, developed by John Dewan. Like all defensive stats it has its ups and downs, but Dewan did some hard work concocting this metric. There are two aspects to consider. First is the straight RZR, or how well a fielder did on balls hit into his zone. Damon’s mark in 2009 was .906. For context, Carl Crawford, tops in UZR, was at .914. The top left fielder in the league was David DeJesus, at .927. Of course, criticism will flow because Ryan Braun, considered a poor defender by scouts and by UZR, ranked second at .919. Damon ranked fourth in the majors.
The other aspect of RZR is OOZ, plays made out of the player’s zone. This is an important aspect. Players might be able to make all the plays within his zone, but it takes a very good fielder to make plays on balls outside his zone. Crawford is king in this stat, making 105 plays outside his territory. DeJesus follows, and Braun ranks fourth. Again, this will open the number to criticism. In any case, Damon ranks 11th in this stat, making 46 plays out of his zone. The only players below him with 1,000 or more innings in left field are Garret Anderson, Raul Ibanez, and Chris Coghlan.
It appears that any way we look at it, Johnny Damon was not a good fielder in 2009. This came as a surprise during the season, since Damon was so good in left field just a year before. We know, however, that certain skills decline with age, and by most measures Damon’s fielding range dropped off a cliff. This is no guarantee that he’ll continue to patrol the outfield poorly in 2010, but given his age it’s not wise to predict a turnaround.
The best we can hope for, I think, is that some component of UZR unfairly judged Damon, and that fan sentiment towards his defense was skewed by a few egregious plays early in the season. RZR didn’t think that poorly of Damon in 2009, and I thought that while his range wasn’t quite what I remembered it, it wasn’t as bad as the general perception. Damon is no longer a superior defensive outfielder, but I think that given an opportunity to start 75, 80 percent of games, he can patrol his position serviceably in 2010.
Photo credit: Associated Press
So maybe the Phillies will get something out of that trade after all
Posted by: | CommentsThree seasons ago, the Phillies wanted to get rid of Bobby Abreu so badly that they were willing to a) pay him $1M to wave his no-trade clause, b) include the late Cory Lidle in a trade, and c) accept four okay prospects for him. The Yanks were the benefactor of that trade, and the two main pieces the Phillies received in return (C.J. Henry and Matt Smith) are both out of baseball while the third piece (Carlos Monasterios) is a fringe relief prospect still in A-ball.
The fourth player Philadelphia received in the trade was a minor league catcher by the name of Jesus Sanchez, an 18-year old that was hitting .252-.323-.311 in the Rookie level Gulf Coast League at the time of the deal. The Phillies added Sanchez to their 40-man roster yesterday to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, except he’s no longer a catcher; Sanchez now does his work from the pitcher’s mound.
With his career line sitting at .220-.295-.274, the Phightin’s moved Sanchez to mound in 2009, and he proceeded to put up a 3.44 ERA (3.25 FIP) with a 120-42 K/BB ratio in 136 IP as a starter for the Low-A Lakewood Blue Claws. In his final 13 starts, the righty posted a 2.59 ERA (2.39 FIP) with a 59-18 K/BB ratio 73 IP. The Phillies are still deep in the red when it comes to this trade, but it looks like there’s a chance Sanchez will contribute to their big league club, which is better than nothing.
Open Thread: A time lapse of the World Series
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World Series Time-Lapse by Robert Caplin from Robert Caplin on Vimeo.
That’s pretty damn cool, is it not?
Here’s your open thread for the night. The awful Knicks and even awfuller Nets are both in action tonight, but I’m not feeling very masochistic tonight, so I’ll pass. Talk about whatever you like, just be nice.
Heyman: Yankees ‘have a real reason to believe’ they can land Halladay
Posted by: | CommentsOver the past three winters we’ve seen big name starting pitchers on the trade block. The Twins made clear their intentions to trade Johan Santana in the winter of 2007-2008. Last year, Jake Peavy dominated headlines for months, as the Padres fruitlessly dangled him in November. This year it’s Roy Halladay. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees have been connected to each player. They passed on both Santana and Peavy, but could it be different this year? SI’s Jon Heyman seems to think so.
What has changed between July, when the Yankees didn’t make a serious run at the available Halladay, and now? The Blue Jays’ general manager situation. They’ve since fired J.P. Ricciardi and have replaced him with Alex Anthopoulos. Learning from his predecessor’s mistakes, Anthopoulos has a different stance on Halladay than Ricciardi. The latter was hesitant to trade Halladay within the division, and also would not grant a trade partner a window to negotiate an extension. As we learned this morning, a Anthopoulos could allow an extension window. In his column this morning, Heyman notes that Anthopoulos will be more willing to deal within the AL East. Says the Jays’ GM:
“This isn’t the NBA where you’re talking about one of five guys on the floor at all times … If you have two trades that are identical, and one is in the division and one is outside, then it’s easy to go outside the division. However, if the trade is better inside the division, I think you have to take a look at it. We have to do what’s best for our organization.”
Another factor that has changed is Halladay’s price tag. As Heyman notes, the Red Sox made a large offer for Halladay in July, consisting of Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, and Nick Hagadone. From the Yankees, Heyman reminds us that the Blue Jays wanted a package centering around both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. The Blue Jays won’t get anything close to that this winter. They still should trade Halladay, but will have to accept a lesser package of prospects. That will make him more attractive to both the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Still, I’m not sure the Yankees will be serious players in this sweepstakes. They have their top two pitchers locked up for four and six more years, and they also have a number of promising young arms to complement them. Adding Halladay would be a good move for any team, but considering the price they’d have to pay, they might opt to stick with their guys and wait to see if Halladay reaches free agency next winter. I say this because even though Anthopoulos will deal more openly than Ricciardi, the Yankees have shown that they’re not keen on paying twice for a player.
Anthopoulos’s willingness to deal within the division will clearly open an avenue for the Yanks. All things equal he’d deal Halladay elsewhere, but if the Yankees have the superior offer he’s not going to spurn them. That means, however, that the Yankees would have to top any offer from another team, and the other team in question probably needs Halladay more than the Yankees. Unless the market is truly limited to just the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox (which I doubt), it stands to reason that another team would be willing to offer more for a player they need, and who would be a luxury for the Yankees.
The negotiation window also makes Halladay more attractive, though I’m not sure it’s a tipping point for the Yankees. Heyman talked to a GM who thought that Halladay could get a “Santana or Sabathia deal.” Halladay will be 33 early in the 2010 season, so I’m not sure any team will be willing to offer him a six-year extension, especially if it comes at $23 million per season. Maybe the Yankees would be willing to offer a four-year, $92 million extension (so they’d have him for five years), but again, that would mean paying a bounty in prospects and then doling out $23 million per season. That just doesn’t seem to fit the team’s M.O.
No one can rule out the Yankees acquiring Roy Halladay. He’s clearly available, and the Yankees have already been connected to him. Given the team’s past behavior, though, I doubt they get too far in negotiations with the Blue Jays. They seem more apt to make a deal for John Lackey, who will just cost money, or to take a chance on a high upside player like Ben Sheets. That’s the way Brian Cashman has operated, and unless something drastic changes in the Halladay situation, I think he’ll pitch 2010 elsewhere.
Who would you rather: Matsui or Damon
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Decisions, decisions, decisions. For the Yankees, with a few key older players hitting free agency, this winter is chock full of them. None of the choices the team will have to make is more fraught with emotion and potential impact than the one that looms regarding Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.
By many accounts, the Yankees will try to bring back one of their two left-handed bats but not both. Right now, Matsui is the sentimental choice. Rebounding from an injury-plagued 2008, he had a stellar 2009 and single-handedly beat Pedro Martinez and the Phillies to help the Yanks clinch the decided Game 6 of the World Series. Damon, on the other hand, stole two bases on one play earlier in the World Series. He is in better physical shape than Matsui and represents a combination of speed and power atop the Yankee lineup.
So let’s try to answer it: If we had to pick one, which player would we resign: Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon?
Offense
To start, let’s look at these two players’ offensive contributions this year. Although their individual contributions differ in style, in sum these two players are nearly identical. On the season, Damon hit .282/.365/.489 with 24 home runs and 36 doubles in 626 plate appearances. Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs and 21 doubles in 526 plate appearances. Matsui outslugged Damon, but the Yanks’ left fielder went 12 for 12 in stolen base attempts. Eleven of those were steals of second, and as Matsui stole no bases this year, Damon’s speed is a plus.
On a contributory level, the numbers are awfully identically. Damon had a runs created per 27 outs of 6.8 while Matsui produced a 7.1 mark. Damon was 25.3 batting runs above average while Matsui was at 22.1, mostly due to the variance in playing time. Since that number is position-neutral though, we can’t gloss over the fact that Matsui is limited to DH duties. More on that later.
Drilling down on their respective positions through Baseball Prospectus’ Positional Marginal Value rate (PMLVr), Matsui’s offensive production begins to take the lead. His PMLVr was 0.164 while Damon’s was 0.124. The Yankees may want to use the rotating DH as a way to rest aging regulars next year, but Matsui as a good full-time DH offered the Yankees a lot of offensive value in 2009. However, on the position-dependent VORP scale, Damon (39.3) bested Matsui (33.4), but Matsui’s total was 11 VORP points above Jim Thome. Johnny was among the elite-hitting left fielders last year, but with Matt Holliday and Jason Bay out there, it’s far easier to replace Damon than it is Matsui.
Defense
On the defensive scale, the pendulum swings toward Matsui simply because Damon’s defense created a liability in left. Joe will have more about Damon’s defense later tonight. For now, I will just note that Damon’s fielding runs above average was -9.2. That total ranked him seventh worst among all Major League left fielders. Matsui, on the other hand, never had to play defense. The Yankees may have gained roster flexibility with Damon, but the numbers suggest that he shouldn’t be out in the field too often.
Damon’s defense, though, did not drop his value below that of Matsui’s. According to Fangraphs’ value figures, Damon gave the Yanks $13.6 million in production in 2009 while Matsui gave the team $11 million. The left fielder outperformed his contract value while the DH underperformed, albeit slightly.
Age and a Conclusion
Finally, we arrive at the age analysis and a few final thoughts. As hard as it is to believe, Damon is actually seven months older than Hideki Matsui. Yet, he hasn’t had the same physical problems with his knees as Matsui had and still has. Both players are at the age, though, where they can easily fall off a cliff production-wise. In fact, PECOTA pegged Damon for a 278/.352/.420/8 HR season, and he beat his 75th percentile projections. Matsui beat his 90th percentile projections. What this means for the future is more uncertainty. The two could stil be productive or they could crash and burn in 2010.
If the Yankees, then, are committed to keeping one, logic would lead me to take Damon over Matsui even if my emotions say otherwise. (I have, after all, always been a fan of Matsui’s.) Although a liability in the field, Damon is still physically capable of playing left, and he can still run. His 12 stolen base attempts were the fewest he made since 1995, but that has more to do with his role as a two hitter than anything else. His 12-for-12 mark in that category is what counts.
There is, however, a rub. I wouldn’t sign Damon to be the left fielder. Instead, I would ask Damon to DH. His production is in line with that of Matsui’s, and at Yankee Stadium, he has the power to man the DH spot and could fill in at left when needed. The right replacement left fielder could help the team recover from the loss of Matsui as well.
In the end, though, if the Yanks are thinking properly and Damon is expected to DH, there isn’t a wrong choice. The team shouldn’t go into Spring Training without a big bat in the DH spot. A lineup sporting one of Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Jerry Hairston, Jr., or Brett Gardner every day would represent a significant downgrade over the 2009 team. So pick your poison. Just pick it for the designated hitter spot.
Girardi finishes third in Manager of the Year voting
Posted by: | CommentsYankees manager Joe Girardi received 4 first place votes, 3 second place votes, and 5 third place votes in the Manager of the Year voting, finishing third behind winner Mike Scioscia and runner up Ron Gardenhire. Ironically enough, Girardi’s team beat both Gardenhire’s team and Scioscia’s team on its march to the World Championship.
Jim Tracy took home NL honors in a landslide.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
